Free Daily Post: 26/01/18 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/23,8p, -0.5)

3.05 Donc

Captain Mowbray – 1 point win – 15/2 (coral/Boyle/BV) 7/1 (gen)  3rd 8/1 

Amber Gambler – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen)  UP

Ah. Well, the 1-2 no surprise and part of me happy with how I read that, I can live with a winner like that at 5s given my stamina concern..a chance he would relish it but I could make a case for a couple with proven stamina who still had upside potential to my eyes. I also thought the ground would be harder work than that – I have no idea what the clock will say but it didn’t look overly hard work to my eyes.. I thought it would be softer  and more of a test, hence more doubts about the winner…still, that doesn’t excuse Amber Gambler who didn’t run very well… Captain Mowbray.. I don’t know what to think of that ride..he is a hold up horse so no shock as to the tactics, 7s+ allowed that chance I thought…but why the jockey has held him up 10l behind the last horse for first half of race I have no idea…were he near the back of the main pack he would have been in there pitching at the end..maybe the early pace/ground/class too him out of his comfort zone..the way he travelled and picked up suggests he could have been ridden a bit closer through that. Jockey didn’t give him a chance.. he has motored in home straight but gave front 2 such a lead that come the last he had run out of steam. I’ll get my money back on him, that or impaled at the bottom of another cliff! 

The ‘could be anything’ horse won yesterday but I can live with that at his morning price. He was very inexperienced and the historical stats for a horse with that sort of profile (esp the big jump in class) were poor. It’s when that type wins at 10s/14s>5/1 that it hurts. He was short enough on morning prices given his profile in that sort of race. Of more annoyance was just how poor the two tips ran. Poor. It’s been a stop and start month but we crack on…

Captain Mowbray… I thought he was a shade overpriced here given his form. He is fit and running well. He has come into his own with the CP added and upped to a staying trip. He is unexposed over this trip and may appreciate the more galloping home straight here, as opposed to Catterick LTO. That race has worked out well enough…Attention Please would have gone close to winning NTO but for falling two out and a horse who came second in that race won this week. So , some substance. There should be more to come over this trip and he could still be ahead of his mark. I didn’t think he should have been bigger price than Capard King or Amber Gambler really. We shall see if that price judgement is right.

Amber Gambler… well I thought he could be a point shorter here as he looks solid… he is still lightly enough raced over fences and ran well LTO in far from ideal conditions..the trip was a bit short and they went hard enough…he struggled to keep tabs at times and his jumping got a bit out of sync. He somewhat powered up the hill like a horse really coming into form. Williams’ horses are starting to run well again after a recent ‘flu jab’ lull, like many yards I suspect. Baring an accident he shouldn’t be far away here. He stays well in soft ground and there could be more progress in him this season.

Of the rest.. Capard King is a danger but his price felt about right. Jonjo’s are in one of their hit and miss phases again and this one has had 43 days off. There is a question over soft ground for him also…his soft ground wins were in very small fields and he does have to prove it in a truly run big field handicap. He does drop in class here and is a danger. As is the Rose Dobbin Fav but he seems about the right price, if not a little on the short side. He is ‘the’ ‘could be anything’ horse in this but it is only his second start and this will very different to last time out. His jumping should be put under more pressure and there is a small chance he bounces after his last run. I won’t be shocked if he wins…but I can’t have him at this price and can more than live with it. He has stamina to prove over fences as well…I’d want a bigger price for that sort. I should mention the Longsdon horse as he is unexposed as well. Having looked through his form I am not convinced he looks like a stayer but he is doing something different here – moving up in distance. It could unlock more. It may not. Again, 5s didn’t feel overly generous for one that has to go and prove it. The booking of Hughes caught the eye but my judgement was that he wasn’t over-priced. I’m often wrong on that front though! I couldn’t have any of the other ones and will be quite surprised if one of the top 5 in the market doesn’t take this.

GL with any bets.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Hi guys,

    I need a little help.I made a double EW bet with two horses at 15 odds.One won the other was second.Unibet calculated 20.25 odds.In my oppinion this is too short.
    13:45 Meydan
    Horse Racing / Dubai / Meydan
    20 January 2018 14:45
    To win
    State Law (E / W 1/4 1-2-3-4)
    4.50 (15.00)
    Result: Murrayfield

    14:20 Meydan
    Horse Racing / Dubai / Meydan
    20 January 2018 15:20
    To win
    Ejaaby (E / W 1/4 1-2-3)
    15:00
    Result: Ejaaby

    15 EW odds if is winner I think is around of 8,9 odds ?

    Thank you ,

    Ildikó

    Ildiko Karsai 26/01/18 11:45 AM Reply


    • Hi Ildiko,

      well a 1/2 point EW bet on a 14/1 winner at 1/4 odds with no rule 4 deduction would be +8.75 on my maths… +7 for the win bet and +1.75 for the place at half points. 1 point EW would be +17.5

      there may have been an EW reduction.

      There is a handy free calculator here for such bets..

      https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/double.html

      Josh

      Josh 26/01/18 12:29 PM Reply


    • the settlement is correct both 14/1 at a quarter odds a place =7/2 the win double is lost unless you can bet all each way so the return is 4.5×4.5=20.25

      pete sharp 26/01/18 12:38 PM Reply


  • One horse won the race the other was 2nd.

    Ildiko Karsai 26/01/18 12:48 PM Reply


    • as i said earlier as one horse finished second the win double is a loser and the return is at place odds for both horses

      pete sharp 26/01/18 12:51 PM Reply


  • Thank you.I think the winner is 8 odds and the placed is 3,5 odds :(.

    Ildiko Karsai 26/01/18 12:54 PM Reply


    • The winner doesn’t really matter. Your ew double is two bets – both horses to win, or both horses to place. Your win double was a loser. The winning bet was the place double, so that’s (4.5 x4.5) 20.25.

      Neil 26/01/18 2:30 PM Reply


  • Hi Ian

    2.05 Huntingdon….an exceptional winner from Robin to find BROKEN QUEST (wins 8/1 BOG @ 12/1) for subscribers to sp2a

    race-reading at its very best….congrats, well done

    Norman 26/01/18 2:21 PM Reply


    • certainly was! Robin a fine judge, among a batch of fine SP2A judges. I echo that, superb research of the P2P form… I wouldn’t have backed him with my stats approach haha… trainer was 0/32,3p with handicap debutants! got that monkey off his back and was doing plenty differently. Superb price, beat SP well, job done.

      Josh 26/01/18 2:29 PM Reply


      • Norman / Josh

        Thank You; I do think though we owe you a few more of those after a very frustrating January where the winners have been fewer than we like and a lack of really decent racing.

        I have to give credit in part to Josh as having read his article the other night “The Chasing Game Back To Basics” we had a bit of an SP2A Round Table last night and discussed trying to go back to what we feel we are best at and nice to have an immediate return.

        Now we need a few more and a return to consistency as most of January has been poor and not up to par!

        Ian@SP2A 26/01/18 3:01 PM Reply


        • Good work… I did think he had a more interesting profile than you would usually go for.. the type I would tip in the members post if he’d qualified against any of my trainer stats (well, and the trainer’s stats were better with handicap debutants!) but that was thoroughly unexposed and doing a few things differently from recent runs. Most handicap hurdles generally won by ‘that type’ I think, much money to be made by focussing on unexposed horses doing something different.. I need to work at finding more!

          Josh 26/01/18 3:47 PM Reply


          • And as if by magic another lightly raced/unexposed handicap hurdler goes in for you! Good day indeed.

            Josh 26/01/18 4:01 PM Reply


            • Today probably first day this month when we have 2 decent field Handicap Hurdles with a significant number with nice profiles, usually find these types of races pick up now and the more the merrier…roll of February…”January sick and tired you’ve been hanging on me”…showing my age there lol

              Ian@SP2A 26/01/18 4:17 PM Reply


              • very nice day Ian and i’m embarrassed to know that was Pilot lyrics 🙂

                martin whittle 27/01/18 6:48 AM Reply


  • been watching South Africa v India

    south Africa need 240 to win but the ball is doing plenty miracle India got to 247

    Think the weather is set fair so draw doesn’t look likely
    they go 4/5 India 5/4 South Africa
    I think the South Africans will really struggle to make
    240 it is the sort of wicket where you are never in and sooner or later
    a unplayable ball will get you

    I am hoping South Africa get to 25-30 for no wicket they will then go long odds on but India will still be favourites in my book

    peter 26/01/18 2:38 PM Reply


  • A very good day Ian….maybe some will get off your back now….pulled all back…Sky paid 6 places….Lady Mix paid out nicely thank you.
    Thought we were gonna take that last one lol….still….Well done lad.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 26/01/18 4:42 PM Reply


    • Thanks Tony, was overdue but welcome….

      To be fair 99.99% of Members new and old have been incredibly understanding, during a below par month; we were due a correction after 4-5 great months but some who joined around 10th January would understandably have thought “here we go”….so hopefully a corner turned and back to more normal service…

      There is always the “odd one or two” who don’t get it but you have to have a thick skin and as a Group the people who read and frequent Racing to Profit are top class and very switched on.

      (I will drop you a personal mail over the weekend Tony about my local Regiment – The Staffords and a sad event I witnessed a few weeks back when they laid their colours down for ever; so sad..)

      Ian@SP2A 26/01/18 4:48 PM Reply


      • Hi ian, i was in the same garrison in Germany for a couple of years…Independent Brigade…Not on army strength as we were part of the ‘Trip Wire’ facing the Russian Tank divisions..aiming at the Fulda Gap….The South Staffs we knew as The Silver Bugles…..When they played in Luneberg cathedral…it rang out so clear we all ended up with tears coursing down our faces…. Some tough guys eh!!
        I was in the Paras as a combat medic on rotation….with various regiments as i was recovering from being shot [twice lol.] In the Radfan in Aden…. My mate another Liverpudlian served his years with The Staffordshire Regiment…..The laughs we had as he’d tell us of the old Barracks…”Full of Silk hats” [Rats. he was terrified of them lol…Doug’s mid 80s now…and sadly has dementia. He had wonderful hilarious funny stories of a scouser in the Regiment…
        I hate the disbanding of the old county regiments…a betrayal of every man and woman who served and died…the full length of the country….I’m sorry if this rant offends anybody…but that’s how i am and sorry Josh…i know your blog isn’t for this…but someone has to say it.

        I look forward to receiving your missive Ian.

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 26/01/18 8:43 PM Reply


  • Hi Tony Mc
    Just picked up your rant rather tame if i may say so ha ha
    Served 9 years in the RAF 1975 to 1984 and still so proud of Queen and Country it is not only the Regiments they are cutting back on, during the Falklands war i was stationed at Saxa Vord Shetland isles all our winter clothing was taken off us and sent to the Falklands resulting in us going to work in civilian overcoats.
    Saxa Vord was a early warning Radar unit and was closed down in 2006 by Labour’s Tony Blair cannot publish what i would like to say about him other than he should be at the Hague awaiting trial.

    Saxa Vord is reopening this year because of all the Russian activity,in 1982 after 10 months we had a party celebrating 2000 interceptions of Russian planes that is how serious that we have to have deterant’s against Russia and other countries.

    colin leafe 28/01/18 3:01 PM Reply


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