Free Daily Post: 25/01/18 (complete/tips)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/19,7p, +4)

3.00 Gowran 

Pleasant Company – 1.5 pt win 10/1 (gen) 12/1 11/1 (places)

Sumos Novios – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

 

This looks a competitive race where Gordon Elliot will hope to improve on his 0/16,4p record in the race. A little way to go to catch up with Willie Mullins (3/28,9p).. I am always wary of the ‘throwing mud and hoping it will stick’ approach (i’ve been guilty of that with tips in the past..firing 4 darts, none of them landing).. Elliot runs 6 in this, to Mullins’ two.

Pleasant Company… i’ll start with this lightly raced 10 year old…baring a fall or an accident I will be shocked if he isn’t in the top 4 here at least. He is probably a sound EW bet but I would rather go 1.5 on the nose and have a go at something else. Were he 16s+ then maybe EW would have tempted be, but I prefer the foolhardy route most of the time. This horse came a decent 4th in this race last year, beaten 18L. It was his first run in 270 days. I would like to think this has been the grand plan and they have made sure he’s had a run this year. Mullins is in red hot form again, 8/30,15p in the last 14 days or so. He stays well and he relishes heavy. I hope Townend rides him close enough to the pace and not right out the back. They have done both with this horse. In general he is a sound jumper and I like the fact he has track form (those with 0 track runs, 1/60,13p last 10 years). He just jumped off the page a bit really as I suspect the quiet run LTO was with this race in mind. He ticks every box for me at the prices. At 10s+ I had to have a go.

Sumos Novios – I thought 14s was worth a go for a trainer who has won this race before. The booking of Robbie Power caught the eye also (2/4,4p on the horse) and he is riding well at the moment. This is another lightly raced 10 year old (older horses have a decent enough record in this race) who handles heavy and stays well enough. I wonder if he has the class for it but the price lured me in. He has some decent enough runs in the book. In handicap chases going right handed he is 2/4,4p. He is fit and in form. He ran over an inadequate trip LTO and I hope that’s because they were protecting his mark for this. He still ran well. He usually races prominently enough and will hopefully track the pace. At 14s he looked interesting enough to my eyes.

Of the rest…

Well none of the Elliot horses leaped out at me given their odds. Out Sam is a silly price. He may hack up and Elliot work his magic but he has never really liked big fields and a heavy ground slog is a complete unknown. He may relish it and the TT may help. CP back on. But I would ant at least double these odds. Happy for him to beat me, which he may do. Ucello Conti is solid but doesn’t feel overpriced. He couldn’t win this last year although ran well. He arrives fit and in form, no doubt been the target. I won’t really put you off him I just preferred two at bigger prices. Probably a decent saver horse as he should run his race. I will mention Monbeg Notorious.. unexposed and could be anything.. this is so different from LTO. He is just a bit too inexperienced for a test like this for me. I won’t fall off my seat if he wins but at single figures I can leave him. He could be anything. I couldn’t have the rest who generally look out of form or not good enough.

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I used a few stats pointers in this but it wasn’t a great trends race for my own unique approach. 19/21 ran 16-60 days ago (which covers all of them!), 10/10 Same or Up 3 classes max (4+ 0/64,10p), 1+ runs at track (0.. 1/60,13p) and 9/10 had 0-1 handicap chase win (2 + , 1/49,7p) .

Those few stats combined found 8 of last 10 winners from less than half the runners… and leave

Uncello Conti / Pleasant Company / Fine Theatre / Flaxen Flare / Thunder + Roses / Wounded Warrior

Do with that as you please!

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

None.

 

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That’s the lot for today.

GL with any bets,

Josh

 

NEW! Blog post… ‘The Chasing Game: Back to Basics’ .. an analysis of recent performance and where I can improve… READ/WATCH HERE>>>

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Thyestes chase trends
    11/10 Irish bred (1French)
    11/11 8-11 y old (0/23 7y old)
    10/11 10st2 – 11st10
    10/11 had top 4 finish in at least one of last 3.
    11/11 All had run in a graded race.
    11/11 least 8 career runs
    10/11 had a previous run at track.
    11/11 least 2 career wins
    11/11 16-60 days last run
    11/11 ran in a chase LTO
    H D Bomhead 1/2
    Burke 1/3
    Elliott 0/16
    Mullins 4/31

    Passing all trends
    Champagne west
    Pleasant company
    Sumos nevias
    Thunder and roses
    Flaxen flair
    Fine theatre

    Champagne west won the race last year and with the jockeys claim is back on the same Mark. Pleasant company finished fourth in that race and previously had beaten thunder and roses in the Bobbyjo chase over this distance.. these are my 2 ew against the field.

    Robert bland 25/01/18 9:51 AM Reply


    • A nice trends job Robert…Thank’s.

      BOL Tony Mc.

      tonymc 25/01/18 1:05 PM Reply


  • Copied from members, a bit late in day (overslept again) and price smashed now.

    I’ve got the vision of Clarence so far this week so onto tomorrow

    W 2.35 King Uther @ 22-20/1

    Up in class and big drop in weight which is possibly meaningless. Had a shocker lto but still managed to place. Tom back on board and the extra 2/3f looks fine if back to clearer jumping.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 25/01/18 10:47 AM Reply


  • OFF THE HOOK 2.55 KELSO 7/2
    SENSULANO 1.25 WARWICK 13/8
    THE MUMS 8.30 CHELMSFORD 5/2

    all with Bet Victor.
    1 POINT E/W TREBLE.
    OFF THE HOOK stayed on very strongly at Ayr to take 2nd on heavy ground
    against a really good horse in Better Getalong.
    She is bred to get further than 2 miles and the stiffer course at Kelso
    should see her stamina come into play
    The favourite Cool mix is a front runner so any doubtful stayers will put to the sword
    and I expect a few horses to be pulled up in this race
    With a true run race highly likely OFF THE HOOKS stamina should kick in late on.

    The third favourite Drums of War finished 2nd last time over 2m3f so on the face of it is a stayer
    but the horse was beaten out of sight
    2nd on paper looks ok but the 2nd favourite Sonic was 10l clear coming to the 2nd last and fell and the long odds on favourite was left at the start so in theory the horse should have finished 4th beaten a distance.

    The form looks very suspect and the horse has it all to prove.

    At Warwick in the 1.25 Sensulano ran 2nd over c/d on the same ground
    and is the solid horse
    The favourite Molly The dolly was found out in better class last time
    and the drop in grade should help
    but she has to give 6lbs to a proven horse in the conditions

    The other three runners will have to improve massively to take a hand
    so Sensulano looks good for a place at least

    The Mums in the 8.30 at Chelmsford has had plenty of chances
    and has come up short but today back over 7 furlongs from a decent draw
    she should be able to dictate out in front at her own pace
    with no other front runners on paper, in theory she can slip into
    an easy lead and save plenty for the final couple of furlongs
    against inexperience rivals as long as Havlin doesn’t make to much use of her early on she will be right there at the finish.

    if all three win you will make a 42.57 point profit
    three places pays a 1.57 point profit for your 2 point stake.

    I also thought of including Samovar in the 1.35 at Southwell
    The favourite Cool Spirit has never run at Southwell the first rule of punting on the fibresand
    never back a horse at odds on regardless how good its form is if it is the debut at the track

    Samovar has lots of course experience and the drop down to 5f may suit(not certain)
    Dixons 2nd string doesn’t seem fancied and the other 3 who have had runs have shown absolutely nothing
    At 4/1 Samovar was a possible e/w play but with only 2 places
    held fire on him as 7/2 is the best price available

    PETER 25/01/18 11:23 AM Reply


  • Just to put OFF THE HOOKS stamina into focus
    her only sibling SERPICO was last seen running in a race over 3m2f finishing 5th.

    2 miles of todays race may seem short for a horse of this profile
    but in a race sure to be run at a cracking pace with the favourite a confirmed front runner.

    on desperate ground with an up hill finish she may well be an in running play as she could be way off the pace early doors and trade at really big odds

    peter 25/01/18 11:42 AM Reply


    • First two races run to plan but it show the value of best odds
      the first one put up at 13/8 went off at 15/8

      the 2nd put up at 7/2 finished up 6/1
      she will be worth keeping an eye out for when stepped up to 2m4f plus.

      The mums advised at 5/2 can be backed at 100/30
      but as long as Havlin doesn’t cock it up should get in the first 3

      at best odds the placed treble pays 4.36/1
      less the loss of a point on the win treble gives you a 3.36 point profit

      PETER 25/01/18 3:10 PM Reply


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