Members Daily Post: 25/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Kelso

12.45 –

Un Guet Apens (all hncps) ES H1 I1 G1 13/8 S3 S4 UP

Make It Happen (m1) H3 G3 9/4  UP

1.15 – Sevenballs of Fire (hncp h) 15/2 UP 11/1

1.45 – Vengeur De Guye (m1 + m2) I3 9/2  2nd

 

Warwick

2.35 –

Finger On The Switch (m1) I3 10/1 S2 S5  UP

Allthegear No Idea (m2) 16/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/17,10p, +9)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.15 Kelso – Sevenballs of Fire – 15/2 UP

2.35 Warw – Polydora – 8/1 UP

 

Sevenballs of Fire… this one is 1/6,2p in handicap hurdles. He runs for a new stable here (they are 2/104p with new recruits last 2 years), trainer/jockey son combo are 4/23,8p in handicap hurdles at the track,+32 and the horse is very well handicapped in this sphere. He finished a 7l 2nd behind Landecker over CD back in 2016. That day he was giving the winner 14lb, and today he receives 3lb. So, a 17lb swing from that encounter, as an example. He looks like a dour stayer to my eye and should relish conditions. This also feels like a race where everything has a question or two and no ‘been there and done it’ horse is bombproof in race conditions, not when looking at going/class/distance. This race is also packed with old-times and there are no ‘hot pot/could be anything’ types in this. He returns to hurdles and the CP are removed. So, doing plenty different. Now, the main niggle is clearly fitness.. I have had a look at Bewley’s stats… with handicappers returning 241-365 days off the track, he is 3/16,8p. That improves to 3/10,7p with those sent off 10/1 or shorter. I can only conclude that he can ready them if he wants and for me he feels like the one horse in this race with an ‘interesting’ profile. At 15/2, 8/1, I was happy to take a stab given all the above. It feels open enough. The market may well guide but then again 4 of his 12 handicap hurdle winners in the last 5 years (5 winners at Kelso in that time) were sent off at 11/1, 14/1, 20/1, 40/1, so maybe it won’t! Happy to have a dart. The Bewley brothers can be aggressive also and they may try and make all on this one…or match Scotswell until he hopefully fades away.

Polydora.. given Lacey’s stats with this type I just couldn’t ignore at 8/1. This does feel a very open race with plenty of in form horses but everything in here has some sort of question to answer, especially given the ground is on the heavy side and it’s over 26f. It could take some getting. He is a qualifier for the Lacey angle below. He makes handicap hurdle debut (7/21,9p) and is a LTO winner (10/43,20p last two years)… I had a look at his handicap hurdle debutants that were moving up one class… 4/6,4p, +26. Those that won LTO…3/6,3p…. those that won LTO and Up 1 class.. 3/4. This one did it comfortably enough the last day with the front two miles clear of the fav. The two in behind him have yet to run since so it’s hard to gauge the form. There is every chance this trip and ground brings out even more from him. He may not handle it, esp over this trip, but that question/unknown can be levelled at most in this race. I found it interesting that Coleman keeps the ride and Lacey remains in fine form. He ‘could be anything’ in these conditions and Lacey may have kept plenty to work on. At 8s I had to have a go didn’t I?? This is an open race… we backed the Skelton horse at 16s LTO so I can live with him winning at 3s. This is a different kettle of fish altogether. Provided my selection and he Daly horse run up to their marks (they may not, but they may improve on them) then he has to find a further 15lb or so (due to go up another 5lb anyway). He may do that but it’s a game of price and I can live with it. Now, usually when I tip a horse in a race with qualifiers elsewhere i’m left with egg on my face as another one romps home… Allthegearnoidea did look an interesting EW proposition.. not least because he stays very well, handles the mud and has nothing on his back. IF a few of these fall in a hole, he could be thereabouts. I had a small EW play, just in case… i’d like to think something far more progressive will beat him here. NTD does well with handicap hurdlers that ran over fences LTO. The S2 qualifiers in the 16/1-25/1 range on morning prices are doing ok EW, and in time that may emerge as a decent micro in itself. Having not mentioned Mulhollands we know what happens now! I thought he looked up against it but I have thought that before. Alan Kings’s is interesting and could take this.. but the ground is a complete unknown as is the trip. Clearly he isn’t one to trust but may not be far away. Daly’s could take it but is priced up accordingly. A new trip/ground here and in a stronger race than LTO I think. So, it’s open, and I think you want a price. We shall see if he is good enough.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

12.45 Kelso – Craig Star (m3) 3/1 WON 3/1 

2.00 Warw – Whiskey Chaser (m1) 11/4 UP

 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.55 War – Echo Watt 10/1 UP

 

P Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.00 War – The Artful Cobbler (m3) 4/1 WON 11/4 

3.45 War – Rgb The Architect (m2) 8/1 UP

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.35 War – Polydora 8/1 UP

 

TTP All-Weather

None for Southwell,

Chelsmford to follow later, probably a post in the comments while I am on the train, or by 5pm.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

PLEASE NOTE:  This won’t really affect you  but I am off to Bristol on Thursday and will return up north on Monday. I’m visiting a couple of old uni housemates, one of whom owns/runs a farm on the outskirts – always refreshing to get some country air! It also means I’ll be close enough to Cheltenham and will be going racing on Saturday. I can’t wait. Looks a solid card, although no 3m+ handicap chases.. the Skybet at Donny will be the ‘tipping’ focus no doubt. I’ll have my lap top with me and Sections 1 + 3 will carry on as normal. It’s a ‘working holiday’.

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The Chasing Game... there’s a new post and feature length video looking at my approach to 3m+ handicap chases and a few things I can improve on. You can check that out HERE>>>

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Handicap Chase ‘System’ 

I haven’t got round to typing up my notes yet but in the meantime the main thrust of my research was…

  • Handicap Chase (not novice) 
  • WON LTO
  • Aged 4-9 
  • Class 3/4/5
  • Ran 1-20 days ago
  • 0-2 wins in handicap chases (inc Novice)
  • 2013-

865 bets / 254 wins / 430 places / 29.36% SR / 50% w|p SR / +15 SP / +68 BFSP / AE 1.01

Notes:-

  • 11/1 or bigger: 0/20,3p
  • Drop in Class from last run: 16/81,34p, -30
  • 3m-3m4f: 82/268,137p, +50, +70 BFSP, AE 1.17

 

As a ‘starting point’ for finding bets/helping with chase analysis, I thought that looked quite promising. Anyway, use/ignore that how you please. All being well I will post ‘qualifiers’ in the test zone..NOT to be backed systematically I don’t think. There are no qualifiers on Thursday. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • Josh 25th tomorrow.

    Mike

    mickeydee 24/01/18 6:30 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, all the days blending into one, cheers!

      Josh 24/01/18 6:56 PM Reply


  • Alpha Des Obeaux 1:50 Gowran at 8s looks overpriced to me. On a going day should be tough to beat.

    Darren 24/01/18 8:27 PM Reply


  • Beneagles Warwick Thursday 14:35 1pt e/w-Just the one for me tomorrow. I wanted to take the 2 at the front of the market on given I don’t think they beat much. The pick has ran consistently most of his career and drops in class here. King has won his last 2 and is flying with his last 4 runners finishing in the top 3. Considering he has been favourite or co-favourite the last 4-5 runs he is clearly expected to do better than he has been. He has ran his worst two races off shorter breaks so potentially might be better off longer breaks and I expect to be there or thereabouts.

    Nick Mazur 24/01/18 8:52 PM Reply


    • One thing I forgot to add which I was reminded having read Josh’s notes this morning but the ground will not be a problem given he was 2nd in a 3 mile point to point on heavy (carrying 11st10lb as a 4yr old) to Mulcahy’s Hill who was only beaten a short head in this year’s Grade 1 Challow (with the now 148 rated Ramses De Teilee 25 lengths back in 3rd) so there is every chance he improves for it.

      Nick Mazur 25/01/18 9:11 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I’ve got K 1.25 – Sevenballs of Fire (HcH)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 24/01/18 9:10 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, about time I missed one, just keeping you on your toes Mike! 🙂 Ha.
      Cheers, Josh

      Josh 24/01/18 9:26 PM Reply


  • I’ve got the vision of Clarence so far this week so onto tomorrow

    W 2.35 King Uther @ 22-20/1

    Up in class and big drop in weight which is possibly meaningless. Had a shocker lto but still managed to place. Tom back on board and the extra 2/3f looks fine if back to clearer jumping.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 24/01/18 9:48 PM Reply


    • Vision working well there Mike! Well done. And what a price. It did feel like an open race where top of market was worth taking on. Laceys was poor but happy with both plays. Losers I can live with. The King was fairly lighted raced in handicaps? Haven’t looked at him. And was doing a couple of things different! Top work.

      Josh 25/01/18 2:49 PM Reply


  • A couple of moderate priced winners today but not enough to keep us from slipping into the red with a 4.5pts loss. Still up 8.5pts on the week though. Another 2 AW meetings tomorrow at Southwell and Chelmsford. Qualifiers as follows:
    Southwell
    1.05 Dream Serenade 6/1 (8.20)
    2.10 Zylan 5/1 (7.20) & Crosse Fire 6/1 (6.40)
    3.55 Muqarred 6/1 (7.20) & Zaeem 9/2 (6.40)

    Chelmsford
    6.30 The Jungle VIP 8/1 (8.40)
    7.00 Zac Brown 14/1 (14.50) & Tropics 4/1 (5.90)
    7.30 Lady Clitico 16/1 (15.00)
    8.00 Ross Raith Rover 15/2 (8.60) & Samphire Coast 5/1 (5.10)
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 24/01/18 10:28 PM Reply


  • Josh,
    I’m at Cheltenham on a 40th birthday this weekend with a set of lads. Be lovely to meet you even for just a handshake and saying hi

    Paul

    Paul 25/01/18 9:09 AM Reply


  • My thoughts on today wind operation runners – thought this might be an interesting as noticed that a few had won over the last few days

    20.30 Chelmsford NO MORE THRILLS
    Ran well first time out but did not come on for that run last time out albeit in a slghtly beter race than this at Newbury (did plug on). Up slightly in distance and could go well.

    14.00 Warwick GARDENERS HILL
    The stable are obviously keen to run the horse as he was entered at Exter yesterday (abandoned) and maybe we should take the hint. All wins have come on soft or heavy ground and in Jan and Feb record reads: 1114

    15.10 Warwick MON PARRAIN
    Formally a decent chaser and then hunter chaser for PF Nicholls and did finish second in a PTP last time he ran. Would not need to improve much to win this. Likes small field race and is 1 from3 in cheepieces.

    15.45 Warwick RgB THE ARCHITECT
    Did not show much on first NH flat run last year when pulled up (was quite well fancied) and it is interesting that he has changed stable to one that does well in this sphere.

    15.45 Warwick BELLE EN NOIR
    Was very poor on only run beaten fully 6f out and would need to improve a great deal to take a hand in this

    15.30 Ayr DALI MAIL
    Beaten a long way in first NH flat race and is another that would need to improve a great deal to figure.

    David Peat 25/01/18 9:46 AM Reply


  • TTP Chelmsford (posting a comment easier than editing post while on my phone…just passing through Stafford)

    5.55 Outlaw Torn – H1 I1 G1 S1 S4 WON 5/1
    700 –
    Ascot Day ES+ S3A UP
    Reckless Endeavour ES H3 G3 S3 S5 3rd
    8.00 Samphire Coast H1 WON 4/1
    9.00
    Treaty of Rome I3
    Call Out Loud ES I3 S3

    Josh

    Josh 25/01/18 12:10 PM Reply


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