Members Daily Post: 24/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Catterick

1.55 –

Spirit Of Hale (all hncps) 9/1 3rd 14/1

Pinch of Ginger (hncp chase + m1) 14,30 ES H1 I3 G3 11/4  S3 S4 UP 6/1 

Major Ridge (hncp chase) I1 G3 10/1 S1 S2 S5  UP 7/1 

2.30 –

Beeno (all hncps) ES I1 6/1 S3  S5 3rd 16/1

Silva Eclipse (all hncps +m1/m1/m2/m2) 14,30 ES+ H3 I3 G3 2/1  S3A S4  UP 7/4

3.00 – Cracking Find (nov hncps) 14,30 H3 I3 G3 7/2  S4 

4.05 – Derrynane (m1 +m1) 14,30 ES G1 5/2 S3  WON 5/2 

 

Exeter

 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 21st Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/17,10p, +9)  (1 point win bets)

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

1.55 Catt – Pinch of Ginger (m1/2/3)UP

 

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield – None

Kempton

6.45 – Deliberator (4yo+) 30 ES+ H3 I3 11/1  S3A

7.15 – Spun Gold (m1) H3 G1 11/2  S2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Weekly Article: The Week That Was : READ HERE>>>

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NEW!  

I have pulled together all stats research/angles discussed in the previous 12 weeks or so (since the start of the ‘weekly articles’) into one place, which I hope will be handy for those of you who wish to use them as ‘starting points’ etc. This report does include some new research for Tom Lacey and Emma Lavelle also. Generally it does not include the ‘micro angles’ that we are tracking in the Test Zone but any other stats relating to those angles is included. Hopefully it all makes sense. You may ignore it or wish to focus on the odd angle, but it should speed up any shortlisting. If you ever use the content to find a bet or two, do post a comment pre race! 🙂 (‘i’ve borrowed the term ‘fact sheet’ from ‘Fenman’ ‘Words From The Wise’, a book I have been flicking through in the last couple of days)

Feel free to download it/print it off etc..

 

RACING TO PROFIT MEMBERS’ CLUB FACT SHEET: READ HERE>>> 

 

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On it’s way…

I also spent a chunk of Tuesday looking at last time out winners in handicap chases. This stemmed from something discussed in said book above and also recurring nightmares of The Man From Minella sluicing up at Wincanton, having won well the race before.

It is rather exciting research and could well provide a very good starting point for finding bets… the main angle I have reserched, since start of 2013…

845 bets / 254 wins / 427 places / 30% sr / 51% w|p SR / +89 BFSP / AE 1.02 

Not a bad starting point for finding bets in certain handicap chases.

My notes are scrawled across various pages of A4 and i’ll try and pull it all together on Wednesday. I thought it may be of interest for those of you who like the ‘starting points’ approach, and offers you more choice etc.

Pinch Of Ginger qualifies against this angle…

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Before I start, I must confess to a cock-up. I put up Indigo Princess as a qualifier at 7/2. That is below my minimum odds of 4/1 and shouldn’t have appeared. Apologies for an extra point wasted. You have my permission to slap me if that happens again! Anyway the good news is that we had another two winners which gave us a profit of 6pts (should’ve been 7!!) on the day to adv/BOG.

    Two AW meetings tomorrow at Lingfield and Kempton. Qualifiers as follows (prices in brackets are BFEx prices at the time I placed my bets) :
    Lingfield
    1.00 Whaleweigh Station 4/1 (4.50) & Falcon’s Vision 7/1 (7.80)
    2.05 Robbie Roo Roo 8/1 (9.00)
    2.40 Tommy’s Geal 8/1 (7.20) & Sheila’s Fancy 7/1 (8.20)
    3.10 Mythical Madness 7/1 (6.80) & Easy Tiger 4/1 (5.00)
    3.45 Mount Wellington 9/2 (4.50)
    4.15 Rising Sunshine 5/1 (5.10)

    Kempton
    4.40 Whaleweigh Station 25/1(ew) (17.50) & Rapid Rise 15/2 (9.00)
    6.15 Carp Kid 6/1 (7.80) & Far Dawn 7/1 (7.80)
    6.45 Madrinho 15/2 (8.00) & Happy Escape 11/2 (6.20)
    7.45 Top Beak 5/1 (5.00) & Deeley’s Double 11/2 (6.00)

    Given the number of double picks I may throw a few quid at reverse forecasts. See what happens.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 23/01/18 7:46 PM Reply


    • What is correct selection for Ling 1.00 as listed as whaleweigh, though it is entered Kem 4.40?

      Is it meant to be Felisa instead?

      kevil9 23/01/18 9:16 PM Reply


      • Kev – see further below.

        Ken McKenzie 23/01/18 11:12 PM Reply


    • You have enough here for a cavalry regiment Ken. Good luck.

      martin colwell 23/01/18 10:07 PM Reply


      • Yes it is rather a lot but that’s just how the numbers fall. As I previously mentioned if anyone is concerned about the strain on their bank, perhaps go half stakes or wait to see how Lingfield goes before placing bets on Kempton but you may lose out on early prices. See below for my second cock-up in 2 days. I think I need a holiday 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 23/01/18 10:13 PM Reply


    • Nice work Ken. If anyone was on 4:15 Rising Sun at Lingfield with Bet365 then they have a free bet in the 1:20 at Gowran Park. Any one got any recommendations?

      Nige C 24/01/18 7:15 PM Reply


  • Houndscourt Catterick Wednesday 13:55 1pt e/w-We backed Houndscourt LTO when he was placed 4th over hurdles in at a big price. Switches to chases here off an 8lb lower mark. His trainer had her first winner in almost a year. Ironically her previous winner was this horse exactly a year ago. The cheekpieces are taken off here which will hopefully help given he was 0/7 with them on. Brooke keeps the ride and is a solid 1/6, 4p on the horse. I respect the fav but 20/1 looked too big.

    Nick Mazur 23/01/18 8:18 PM Reply


    • GL Nick, halved in price so job done on that front. I had a small nibble at 16s… having had a go at McCains when 7/2 or so, but more fool me didn’t realise it had turned heavy…he’ll need to jump better than LTo also.. I think he may relish the trip but he has a lot of weight on his back…Spirit of Hale was interesting… a ‘magic formula’ qualifier given how unexposed he is over fences and the step up in trip could work wonders…his actual weight may make the difference with McCain horse and bring them closer than for Bangor run. Were there not two other quals in teh race/some strategy quals, I may have contemplated tipping him at 9s but it seems open. Smuggler’s Stash for SP2A does have a decent chance, C5, this trip, that’s his bag really. I think Major Ridge now has a big ground concern now heavy, 60+ days a concern, but given he won race last year you never know. I hope 1 of those 5 wins!!! It is that sort of race, we’ll do well between us if no approach across the board has landed on the winner 🙂
      GL

      Josh 24/01/18 1:16 PM Reply


  • C 1.20 Young Tom e/w @8
    Don’t normally look at odds this low but worth a bet in case it causes an upset. Should be a bet for nothing with t/j team aiming to replicate last years win in the race.

    C 3.55 Applaus @ 8-9/1
    Another low odds and only 2 places. Both favs on chase debut. Applaus ran a decent 2nd with same jock over fences a month ago and winner has followed up since.

    GL
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 23/01/18 9:02 PM Reply


  • Oops, sorry. Made another cock up.
    Lingfield 1.00 should be Felisa 4/1 (4.50) & Falcon’s Vision 7/1 (7.80)

    Ken McKenzie 23/01/18 10:09 PM Reply


  • Exeter is OFF.

    chrisrees 24/01/18 7:38 AM Reply


  • 1.20 Catterick KEEPINUPWITDJONES

    interesting “under the radar” Trainer Mrs S A Watt…..6 wins from last 13 runners spread over 3 months

    horse has been upped 4 furlongs since last run when 4th in a Bumper at Musselburgh…this is first run over hurdles

    currently 40/1 in places…..Each Way advised

    Norman 24/01/18 8:54 AM Reply


    • GL Norman, i’ve seen worse 40s shots and have had a tiny EW tickle for interest… most of what she is sending out at the moment is running well enough, and she had a 40/1 second in a maiden hurdle a couple of runners ago. Ran well LTO indicating had some ability, was visibly outpaced and this looks a weak race. Suspect one of top 2 takes it but you never know and no forlorn hope from placing to my dodgy novice hurdler eyes! Good spot. GL

      Josh 24/01/18 9:37 AM Reply


    • I’d keep an eye on him Norman. He’s clearly moderate but I’d suggest he has hated heavy ground…a complete unknown and that looked like a ploughed field. Will take some getting. Doubled in price pre race… suspect they may try and get a handicap mark..’teach’ him how to race on soft/heavy, (they may give him a mark on his bumper form if doing nothing in 3 starts in the mud over hurdles), and go handicapping from a basement level. She clearly knows how to train her small string and get the best out of them. He will pop up one day at a price I suspect! A patient game awaits… he did show promise in that bumper run.
      Josh

      Josh 24/01/18 1:32 PM Reply


  • In today’s Daily Mail page 4
    The boss of a major bookmaker has admitted there might be too many gambling advertisements on TV,Jim Mullen the chief executive of Ladbrokes Coral.
    Hooray!!!
    Still will not take bets

    colin leafe 24/01/18 11:51 AM Reply


  • I read a quote from Skybet chief that two percent were restricted to win £1,000 for major races and the remaining one percent to win £100 on any race.

    I was restricted and repeatedly offered sums like 37p on 20/1 shots and I doubt if I won more than £1,000 from them over a period of 6 months but quite a few bets benefited from BOG. Lying toerags.
    Hugh

    alpha2 24/01/18 3:57 PM Reply


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