Members Daily Post: 23/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Leicester – NONE

 

Wetherby 

1.45 –

Log On (all hncps) 13/2 up

Cafe Au Lait (m1) H1 I3 G3  11/4 S4 2nd 80/40

2.55 –

Final Fling (all hncps) H1 I1 G3  3/1 S4  WON 10/3 

Ben Arthur (m1) 30 H3 I1  11/2    2nd 7/1  (25/1 FC anyone??)

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 21st Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/17,10p, +9)  (1 point win bets)

NONE…nothing on this page I want to tip at the prices (me being comfortable to have my 1 point tipping stake on…)..

I will mention Silk Run for the Tom Lacey angle below. I mean if you back them systematically, you back them. I always flick through them and like to take a view and will try in future to ‘tip’ those I really like. I wouldn’t have my tipping 1 point on this one but I’ve had to throw something at her given the price – 25/1, 22/1 – as you just never know with him… Nico has been booked which caught the eye given they are 3/5 in hurdle races, and they last teamed up on an unfancied 25/1 winner in October… (just before I researched the angle I think…damn!).. I think this one must be running for a handicap mark, which the BHA have yet to give her after three hurdle starts, the handicapper wants to see more.. so she needs to run better at some point. I suspect we may be backing her to victory in a handicap soon enough…stepped up to 2m4f, better ground maybe, dropped into a C5, some headgear on.. you know the type. Smashed from 16s>4s, job done 🙂 (you have to be optimistic, it’s hard for us Liverpool fans… Never. Get. Complacent!) We will be on if and when she does win, price allowing. Anyway.. to today… she did nothing LTO, really was poor… the run before that at Leicester was interesting..she stayed on steadily under hands and heels. Every horse in this has heavy ground to prove and that could be a leveller here, tapping into stamina reserves we have yet to see. It’s a small field, back at the track where she ran ok, and it’s a mares only race. I looked through the market leaders and while one of them may well hack up, i wouldn’t want to be taking a short price about them, esp given the ground. I wonder if they now may be more aggressive on her.. Lacey is known for switching from hold up tactics to make all (Kimberlite Candy). I suspect he just wants a handicap mark but at 25s I haven’t over thought this and i won’t fall off my seat if she won, and as such i’ve had a speculative dabble. He remains ‘in form’ – he hasn’t been out of form for about 6 months! One to watch, i’m interested to see how she goes here, esp with an eye to her next few starts. Very much a case of ‘loaning money to the bookies’ with this one, as Lacey will get a win at some point, as is his want.

 

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Horse of interest...

3.50 Leic- Delface- 6/1  2nd 4/1… a decent enough run, big gap back to the rest.. he had to give the winner 23lb which in that ground/up that hill, has just told..i don’t want to knock his attitude has he kept going,poss just outstayed…maybe an easier 16f, back to Taunton! … (i wouldn’t back at 4s/7/2 if you missed 6s, may drift out again, but that’s the price he probably should have opened up at) this isn’t a tip as such, and the last ‘horse of interest’ i mentioned may still be running on into 4th place. But, if I mention one, it does mean I have backed them but nowhere near to my ‘notes/tipping’ stake. This one looked interesting as I flicked through the Leicester card hunting out qualifiers for Section 1 from my TTP stats pack, of which there don’t appear to be any for Leicester. Anyway. A couple of Geegeez symbols caught my eye here, a C5 for Pipe (indicating solid course form the last 5 years) and a 14,30, C5 for Tom Scu- who is riding out of his skin at the moment. You know from the Key above was a 14,30 mean. He is 5/19,6p, +13 in the last 14 days. Pipe + Scu + Leicester in the last 5 years, all runners… 9/22,11p, +7 SP. Pipes are going ‘ok’ in recent days. So, some solid foundations there. The horse.. well he is lightly raced and unexposed still in handicap hurdles… 0/4,0p, having won twice in novice hurdles suggesting he has some ability. But, what is he doing differently today I hear you shout..why should he improve on recent form… well he drops in trip by 3.5f from his last run and recent starts. He does run like a non-stayer to my eye, so this 16f could be ideal. His novice wins were over this trip and he appears to relish the mud. He started his handicap career off 119 four starts ago, and rocks up here on 105! He ran ok LTO, certainly not like a horse completely out of form. He also gets a first time tongue tie, which could help. In what looks a weak race, with 4 horses aged 10 and a few seemingly out of form also, I thought 6s was worth a dart. At  least the logic/reasoning etc is sound and just the sort of loser I can live with. I’ve had a go, do with that info as you please but i thought I’d share. Something to read if nothing else! Don’t just back him on my say so, do take a look at him/the race and see if you agree, and if not, who should my eyes have been drawn to?? 🙂

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds) (+26 points)

2.05 Leic – Silk Run – 25/1 UP

(she could just be awful/hated ground no doubt/one for handicaps)

 

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

3.05 – Poyle Vinnie (m1) ES+ I3 G3 9/2 S3A

4.10 –

Tiger Wolf (4yo+, +m1) ES I3 8/1  S3

Viva Verglas (4yo+, M1) ES I1 G1 20/1  S1 S5 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

(Advised Strategy Link in KEY has been updated) 

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key UPDATED

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 15th Jan 2018 – 21st Jan

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 3/35,13p, -4.25
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 3/24,11p, +6.75 
  • S1 (0/4,1p, -4) S2 (1/12,5p, +5) S3 (0/5,1p, -5) S3A (1/4,1p, +6) S4 (1/6,4p, -2.25) S5 (0/4,1p, -4)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  1/7,3p, +10

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 1/5,2p, +3.5

 

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NEW! 

Weekly Article: The Week That Was : READ HERE>>>

In this week’s members’ article I add four handicappers to the notebook plus have a good look at Anthony Honeyball, having noted something he said in an RUK feature… he could well be a ladies man… two micros have been added to the ‘test zone’ rosta.

Remember you can find all old articles and various other pieces of research in the KEY ‘research articles’ link.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • 2:55 Wetherby – Sounds Of Italy 6/1
    This one has been in my tracker for a while now and I think has a good chance tomorrow. 2 point to point wins over 3m before being taken hunter chasing (PU) then moving to Scudamore who has ran him in 3 class 4 novice hurdles over 2m, the last two being won by If The Cap Fits and Western Ryder. Given an attractive looking mark of 74, up a mile and down to weak looking class 5 he looks a decent bet at 6/1

    thisisjonnoo 22/01/18 6:43 PM Reply


    • Certainly no weight to carry. It looks that most of the runners need to be held up but as it is over 3 miles on soft ground, such a runner may have time to make ground up. The probable pacemaker well pack it in and allow something to come through.

      martin colwell 22/01/18 7:41 PM Reply


  • Bookended Wolves today with Tha’ir 5/1 coming home in the last adding to Harvest Day 7/1 in the first to give us 7pts profit for the day to adv prices. Nice start to the week. Lets hope we keep on an upwards curve this week. AW meeting at Southwell tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    1.55 Be Bold 14/1 & French 5/1
    3.05 Robot Boy 7/1 & Foolaad 4/1
    3.40 Itlaaq 8/1
    4.10 Indigo Princess 7/2 & Sooquaan 13/2
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 22/01/18 7:57 PM Reply


  • Josh, re Delface, I get an occasional ‘steer’ from the stable and it’s said this time that he’s capable of winning this type of race but isn’t one to trust?
    I have to say that the drop in trip looks favourable but I share the above opinion for what it’s worth.

    chrisrees 22/01/18 8:35 PM Reply


    • Hmm. I think we will find out whether he is one to trust after this race as there is no excuse to my eye. 6s was worth a dabble He has cut out 3f from home or so on his last three tries over 19f+, having travelled well. He either hasn’t seen it out or has mentally jacked it in. The headgear suggests he needs to focus more. But he has won two hurdle races so has been straight forward enough at some point. This is a low mark. Maybe something has been bothering him.. swallowing his tongue say, so maybe the TT will help. Had he not won before you’d have more doubts. This race will tell us plenty. It’s poor and his mark is low. No excuse for a good run. If he cruises to 1 out here and finds nothing then he will get the squiggle and will probably never be backed again!

      Josh 22/01/18 10:41 PM Reply


  • Well, first post from me nearing the end if my free trial period. To be honest I’d been following the free blog a while before the trial. There I’d picked up a couple of trainers and jockeys to watch: The Doc, George, Hobbs, Harrington, Brennan to name the main ones. They had produced a steady stream for me and got me into two Gold Cup days too…What a riot!!!!!

    Access the members stuff has taught be a couple of things: some more trainers and jockeys (Lacey and Crawley) but also that don’t react like a rabbit stuck in the headlights when faced with loads of options.

    I was going to bin out after the trial but have recently settled on really filtering the info available in the members posts and making each decision my own, not a mass of blind bets of others…Doing the latter got me nowhere.

    So, I’m going to stay

    So thanks to all of you, including Josh, for all your advice, Ken, Nick, Martin, Geroid to name but a few. Keep up the good work and here’s to my third Gold Cup Cheltenham visit on 16th

    Cheers,
    Nige C

    Note C 22/01/18 10:25 PM Reply


    • Thanks Nige. I’m a relative newbie here as well and it did take me a while to get the hang of the different strategies. Now I’ve settled on S1, S4 & S5 along with Josh’s tips, one or two jockeys and occasional tips from other posters as well as my own AW tips. Since the start of the year I’m well ahead. Good luck.

      Ken McKenzie 23/01/18 7:30 AM Reply


      • Cheers Ken, wise words (and some great tipping too) 🙂

        Nige C 23/01/18 10:54 AM Reply


        • Yes thanks for posting Nigel, much appreciated.
          Fingers crossed for a long and enjoyable punting journey! 🙂
          Best, Josh

          Josh 23/01/18 11:00 AM Reply


          • Guess which Doc horse I was on then 🙂

            Nige C 23/01/18 4:03 PM Reply


  • Have more than a passing interest in Delface having been on at around 30 for the Wexford novice win on County day last year.

    Obviously watched every stride of that race and thought the horse showed good resolve in battle to the line that day. Beat a couple from big stables there ( the 2nd and 3rd don’t look anything ultra special in terms of what they’ve done since, they haven’t been totally disgraced though).

    Around 2m in heavy may well be optimum conditions. Worried by the fact that Wexford is sharp while Leicester anything but….and last race was at sharp Taunton though it looks like Delface ran well enough in that in that to give an indication that a stiff 2m might still be OK…plus the previous race at stiff Exeter where race report suggests that at around the 2m mark Delface was still in contention. Wouldn’t take too much notice of the ultimate beaten distance in that.

    Bought for £23k after the Wexford win (a not to be sniffed out amount for a horse running in this type of race/grade) and owned by same owners of reasonably good class Mr Clarkson (I read somewhere sidelined with injury and Delface was bought as a replacement to give some fun while MC was out). Given this background you’d think the owners would be a little disappointed there are not more 1s against his name than there are so far.

    Sire Della Francesca can be a good indicator of latent talent (hence the novice win out of the blue).

    Add to all this direct quote from David Pipe ”he has travelled notably well through his races of late and hopefully this step-back in trip will see an improvement” …somewhat tempered by Chris’s stable info above.

    I’d like to think the words ”has travelled notably well through his races recently” are/will be key here, those races being over further than 2 while we know the horse can will well at 2 (well, in the recent enough past anyway).

    Summary….5 or 6-1 is short…may even be 9-2 in places now….and we all know it’s often just as hard to land a 5-1 winner as it is a 14-1 or bigger. All that said there are a reasonable number of indicators that suggest Delface is better overall than 90% of these, and maybe all of them.

    Personally I’ll probably follow you in Josh, on a very rare foray for me into this low odds. Hopefully will try to make all and run enough into the ground while having a little in the tank for the last 2. There is a possibility that 2m in heavy on a stiff track just isn’t the right cup of tea and maybe a reasonable run here while still getting beat far enough will leave an option of getting a much bigger price on a sharper track in future.

    Steve C 22/01/18 10:41 PM Reply


    • cheers Steve, great insight… and well done for landing on him at Wexford.
      Yep I judged 6s to be a couple points too big in my view but we shall see come his SP if that is correct- in part my decision was influenced by the TT – it could well transpire that’s more important than the distance move- would be a valid excuse for cutting out, if when under the pump he’s felt his breathing restricted – or he does have mental frailties. It was also an assessment of how weak the race looked… the Edmunds horse looked interesting and I have noted David’s excellent comments below.. those two look main dangers having looked again… this run will reveal plenty… his next run could well be over an easier 16f on soft, and maybe that’s went he will show himself to be thrown in again.
      GL
      Josh

      Josh 23/01/18 10:53 AM Reply


    • Think you were spot on there Steve about the sharper track… stayed on the once pace after the last, winner getting 23lb from him with claim has helped, and I think he was out-stayed. Did look upsides at one point, I don’t want to knock his attitude just yet as he kept going and seemingly responded for pressure, big gap back to rest, but a good enough run to ensure he may not be much of a price NTO. An easier 16f looks ideal

      Josh 23/01/18 4:00 PM Reply


      • Bottled it and went place only! Couldn’t see it out of the 3 whatever happened…and the commentary I listened to indicated 2 mistakes in the race which may well have cost it the win. But yes kind of shame too close up to leave a good price for another day.

        On to the next one!….

        Steve C 23/01/18 4:23 PM Reply


  • 15.50 Leicester CATCHIN TIME (1/2 pt each way 8/1 generally)

    Since joining Laura Hurley

    Between mid Jan and mid Feb, when racing on GTS and softer and having had between 2 and 4 runs in the last 90 days the horse has a record of : 111411.

    David Peat 23/01/18 9:27 AM Reply


    • thanks David, a very interesting profile indeed… if the two unexposed ones at top of market don’t run their race, he looks sure to go close…well he may even do so if they do run their race! 8s probably worth a saver for me! GL

      Josh 23/01/18 10:54 AM Reply


  • Pacofilha Leicester 13:00 0.5pt e/w-More dire racing today but I thought this one could out-run his odds. Has come out of a very hot race with a number of multiple winners and even the horse behind him had 2 2nds. Gets 20lbs on the whole field due to his age which given the conditions could be important. Flint had his first winner in 3 months recently and is 4/10,5p at the track over hurdles. His best flat form was on soft so he could potentially improve for the ground but that an unknown for heavy although you can say that about most of the field. He is also stepping up in trip which is something different. Probably a out the back of the telly job but at 66s with 8 runners he was worth a go.

    Have also had £5ew on Chase Me in the 13:45 at Warwick who if you go on his bumper run could be well treated.

    Nick Mazur 23/01/18 10:03 AM Reply


    • An interesting favourite in the 1.00 with the Greatrex runner. Won well LTO and well talked up yet it drifted a bit? So I guess it either wins easily or staggers up the home straight? Another shorty I am interested in seeing run is Destrier in the 4.00 Wet, for the Skelton’s. Again needs to win well to progress up the ladder. They also have the unbeaten Solo Saxophone in the 1.10.

      Yes it is dire today and I am struggling to find much worthwhile. Good luck to those on Delface. The race is poor in my eyes and so is winnable but I will not be playing in it.

      martin colwell 23/01/18 11:21 AM Reply


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