Nothing from me today,
GL with any bets,
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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh
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All Irish racing is shown on At The Races
Is there anyone out there who watches all the Irish races
as with Cheltenham coming up you could have an edge if you know the Irish form inside out.
22/01/18 9:59 AM
The best advice re Irish Racing and ATR in the lead up to Cheltenham gleaned from many years of experience and regular pain is (a) turn the sound off as the commentator has a regular habit of wither calling the wrong horse home or not even mentioning the winner until they have passed the line (2) don’t listen to the Presenters/Interviewers as they are the presenting equivalent of bi-polar (and I don’t say that disrespectfully) but they have a canny habit of totally hyping up and winner and equally writing off as horse meat anthing that does not win and (c) with regard to Cheltenham Handicaps DON’T watch the front of the field; watch those in the middle/ back of the field who have nice runs without exertion and not really asked any serious question of put in to the race in other words “handicap bandits” because you can be sure of one thing, at least 3-4 will pop up at every Cheltenham with very little front of the field or winning form in the preceding 3-4 months.
Finally, the best Irish / Cheltenham forms guides (a) anything ridden by Davy Russell with loads of unplaced form (b) anything that had a spin round at the Festival the year before who ran well and showed ability on the track – these guys will wait patiently for another year!
FINALLY FINALLY do not even think about Cheltenham and betting at Cheltenham until at the very earliest the weekend before, make sure you know whats running (and isn’t) and be 99% sure you know what the accurate Going is and what the weather is and if not sure…WAIT! there is always massive value and massive enhancements on the day of the race!
All personal opinion but I hope it helps…
22/01/18 10:15 AM
very sound advice and quite a few things I would never have taken into
so the week before the festival will be looking at the old atr replays
to see if I can make use of you insight
22/01/18 1:51 PM
almost Peter….having initially been a very vocal critic, I am now increasingly impressed with Racing Post beta and subscribe to the Ultimate User (its about £28 a month from memory). Gives excellent analysis and results on every race in UK and Ireland and elsewhere full race replay and also closing stages replay and also includes trainers Quotes post race and covers all UK + Irish P2P and French AQR form, ideal really and credit to Racing Post who have done a great job in developing it, and fair play to them. Invaluable assets all in one place and all our Tipsters use it.
22/01/18 2:07 PM
a nice 80-1 place with Scott Piercy Martin, at least it meant a small profit on the Golf cheers for the tip.
22/01/18 11:19 AM
Yes, could have had Tommy Fleetwood each way really as he goes well in the Emirates and he started last season off well as well. I also think Matt Fitzpatrick can go on even more in 2018 and win us money?
22/01/18 11:31 AM
Couple of notes I had from Cheltenham last year re: Irish horses
1) consider anything that ran LTO at Leopardstown especially if it won
2) in handicaps, consider anything that ran in a graded race last time
The ground is horrid during the winter and Tully East for example bounced back at Cheltenham last year running on decent ground.
22/01/18 11:32 AM
yep all valid points. I do like a good Festival handicap winner… all three of my handicap winners last year were Irish trained… Presenting Percy actually won LTO but had been so well campaigned that he still had a stack in hand.. Tully East another and a 20s poke for Elliot… any handicapper owned by Gigginstown is worth serious attention, they have been responsible for most of my big (16/1+) priced winners at last few festivals… Very Wood 50s (non handicap) Empire of Dirt 20s and last year’s whose name escapes me in a handicap + Tiger Roll 16s…(Tully East + Presenting Percy completed the 4 winners we had last year on here) I did note last year how a few had run well at previous festival and/or decent novice form… they had been running in heavy ground, small field, graded novice races.. suddenly they rock up to a Festival handicap… good ground, decent field size, race run at a proper gallop… and they are transformed, seemingly a stack in hand…
Tully East hit that profile, so did Supasundae (pin nowhere near him) , Flying Tiger (33s, the most agonising missed winner of the week, on a stats shortlist of 4/5..urgh!) Presenting Percy (well he was just in form, but it was his first run over 3m on good ground…the reason for why he could improve further)
Road To Respect – had that profile – Mr Ryanair again in a big field handicap!.. pin nowhere near him… handicap chase debut, been pottering around in small field novice chases, in soft.. came alive here.. the strong pace no doubt tapping into stamina reserves that had not been stretched
Doomsday Book…well not so much hidden away in Novice races… but it was his first run over 3m+, in a handicap chase, on good ground, stepped up 6f from run LTO
Artic Fire.. well he had been racing in graded hurdles and simply out-classed them…other than the profile discussed above that’s another thing at top of my agenda this year.. give any classy top weights/top 3 in handicaps, a good proper look!
Champagne Classic – he hit that profile, and was the one whose name escaped me above, 20s>12s, stormed to victory. Handicap hurdle debut, first run of his life on good ground.
So, plenty there for me to absorb… without doubt you have to be very well handicapped to win a Festival handicap.. and amazed me how many run in conditions for the first time.. a combination of a new distance / or better ground/ + the strong gallop (which is main difference from many races they have competed in all year) / lightly raced in handicaps – so many have that sort of profile and are ‘doing something different’ on the day.. you rarely want a ‘been there and done it horse’ who has ‘proven’ form in conditions.. need to be looking for types that may come alive in unique Festival conditions. And because they don’t have the ‘form in the book’ they usually open at a big price!
Tricky to find them, but great fun..and after three decent Festivals I am due a shocker… a load of seemingly exposed handicappers will probably win this year now!
I’ll pull together a ‘lessons to learn’ post from last year / write up / video covering those thoughts above, may be of interest.
22/01/18 12:00 PM
Shall i ? shalln’t i ??? … hey ho in for a penny in for pound
been popping as a non member for a while .. and it looks a great friendly mix of racing enthusiasts .
Let the fun begin ……………… 🙂
LORD GEORGE BENTINCK :0)
22/01/18 2:48 PM
haha – welcome aboard… well, you may think ‘what the hell is going on here’ but that is the purpose of the 7 week trial 🙂 if nothing else we are a great friendly mix of racing enthusiasts…
Just ease yourself in… do read the welcome email and familiarise yourself with ‘the key’ in each daily post.. cab be a bit over-whelming at first, but again, you’ve got 7 weeks. What I do is a bit different to anything else out there. If you like decent info from a logical foundation, like thinking about the game/your bets yourself also- applying your own thought, + just love racing, i;m sure you’ll be right at home.
22/01/18 2:56 PM
perfick ! ……….. yep looking forward to picking up some useful pointers and contributing with a few i hope :O) .
been betting only horse all my adult life ( and yes i still have some money left : )
Once dabbled in ownership in my 20’s ….. i brought a horse from a breeder near chelthenham for 1000 pounds ……… was still naive in them days and foolishly sent it racing as a 2 yo with ken ivory ……… turns out it was bred to be the next gold cup winner really rather than a 2yo stakes race at yarmouth 🙂 have a look for laugh ..but hey he was all mine bought and paid for ……… his name ……….. ” COTTESLOE BEACH ” ……..unfortunately couldn’t carry on with him racing ….. but we housed him in a handicap childrens riding school for his remaining days 🙂 …….. he was perfect for that assignment .. very very placid old thing. right got go and sort the 3.25 @ fakenham out now 🙂 lgb
LORD GEORGE BENTINCK :0)
22/01/18 3:16 PM
If you have even a vague interest in horse racing mlud you’ll find it well worth looking in, you’ll find too much to take in in total but you’ll learn things regularly and soon pick out what works for you. Good luck .
22/01/18 6:57 PM
THANKS WESTY2 .. ….. I’VE STARTED THE LEARNING CURVE …. 🙂
22/01/18 10:42 PM