Members Daily Post: 21/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Fontwell

1.40 – Native Robbin (hncp chase) 14,30 H3 11/4 WON 11/4>2/1 

2.10 – Chris Pea Green (m2) ES 6/1 S3 UP

2.40 –

Mount Oliver (all hncps + m2) ES+ 9/1 S3A WON 9/1>11/2 

Colmers Hill (hncp chase) 14,30 6/1 Fell 5/1 

3.40-

Atlantic Roller (m1) H3 I3 G1 11/4 S4 WON 11/4>6/4 

Gores Island (m2) ES H3 G3 9/2  S3 UP

4.10- Thank You Before (NHF) 10/1 S2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/17,10p, +9)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.40 Fontwell – Colmers Hill  13/2 (bet365/BV) 6/1 (gen) Fell

Hmm.. a sorry end there, I am not sure he got up.. carnage all through that race, with at least one other lost. Horrible to see. Colmers was starting to flounder in the mud when taking a tired fall. As is my want I pick the wrong one when a couple of qualifiers in a race. Were Mulholland in better form (1/28 last 14 days) I may have looked at his closer for tipping purposes, but you were taking a complete stab as to whether he would relish conditions, whether he was any good, he was fit, and what sort of form he was in at all. He hadn’t proved he wouldn’t relish them. Lightly raced and second start for trainer.. a typical C5 handicap I suppose! The light weight has helped in dire conditions there.  I wasn’t close to taking a tipping stab that the weight + conditions would see a performance like that at single figure odds,no ratings pointers,  one where you just trust the stats. 

I’ve stared at this one for a while and concluded he’s worth a dabble at 13/2, 6/1. He is unexposed here, this being his third chase start, having run well here LTO. He’d have been a bit closer to Goring One but for a final fence blunder. It didn’t make a difference to the result but he gets 6lb from him here which could help. His run two starts ago was after 600+ days, the run last time out coming 15 days later. He has run well but there is a chance they have been bringing him along slowly, fit enough to run well but getting fitter with each run. That’s the hope anyway! That quick return may have just taken it’s toll after the first. He runs 26 days later here and could be spot on. The fact they come back to Fontwell is a positive. He does run on Heavy here which could be a positive if he handles it. He looks a big galloping sort and may inconvenience many of the others as much as anything. He ran well on it two starts back. He has jumped well in general the last twice and should be getting better. The trainer form also lured me in…Scott’s are going well and he is the only ‘in form’ trainer in the race (geegeez indicators) – that doesn’t mean the others are out of form, but his are running very well. He is 5/12,9p in Fontwell handicap chases 25-27f in the last 5 years. I thought he should run his race here and that price was decent enough.

It’s A Steal and Goring One are old boys now. I think the main dangers are For Camel – but he needs to build on that last run and the 47 day break niggles at me. Paddy has been booked though which is usually a good sign from this trainer. Leith Hill Legasi is interesting – the solid been there and done it yardstick. Mark down, drop in class, looks in form- but has and in and out profile, open to attack from anything more progressive…the selection, and For Camel.

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That’s it for today. GL with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Chelmsford

1.55- Mr Potter (all hncps) I3 8/1 2nd

3.55 –

Dynamo Walt (4yo+) I1 G1 6/1 S1 WON 6/1>4/1

Classic Pursuit (m2) ES 9/1 S3 UP

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

none.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Sorry for late post. A couple of late winners at both Lingfield and Chelmsford gave us a nice profit of 15pts for the day, including 25/1 ew shot Anonymous John with a terrific late run. Anonymous no longer methinks!

    Back to Chelmsford for today’s AW action. Qualifiers as follows:

    1.25 I Was Only Joking 13/2
    1.55 Captain Bob 9/1 & Mr Potter 17/2
    2.55 Hard Toffee 5/1
    3.25 Sean O’Casey 5/1
    4.30 Dream Ally 15/2 & Frank the Barber 11/2
    1 pt win each

    Good Luck.

    Ken McKenzie 21/01/18 8:37 AM Reply


    • Top work as always Ken, I took Martin’s advice & double staked, perfect for the 25/1 & 8/1 winners. Thanks for your continued posts.

      lately 21/01/18 11:31 AM Reply


      • Haha. Well done. I took that piece of advice as a bit tongue in cheek. You’re a braver man than me.

        Ken McKenzie 21/01/18 2:11 PM Reply


  • 15.50 Thurles TEACHERS PET (1/2 pt each way)

    RH track, 2m4f to 2m7f, 11 runners or less when racing 25 days or less after last race.

    Under these conditions the horse has a record of : 111111

    David Peat 21/01/18 8:43 AM Reply


    • I really want to swear david……Last ffn fence….he was looking at the other horse.
      I’m suffering 2nditis at the moment and thought You’d cracked it…Pig sick.

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 21/01/18 4:01 PM Reply


  • Gone for a 33/1 double with 2 of Ryans mounts … Chelm 1.55 Frozen Lake & 2.25 Stosur .
    Greed is Good 🙂

    joners 21/01/18 10:02 AM Reply


  • We are getting a lot of snow/sleet in Kent at present. We are not far from Lingfield and so it must be bad there. We need the weather to pick up to be able to punt more successfully I think. Perhaps February will bring better?

    The Dutchman won well yesterday but I think that the conditions played a part and so not sure how good the form is. I had egg on my face doubting Jenkins! What about The New One? What a hero.

    Well done to Ken finding a 25/1 winner on the sand. The surface is a mystery to me.

    martin colwell 21/01/18 12:30 PM Reply


    • The Dutchman… yep well in races like that it can always look worse.. the second has run his race, the 3rd has to a point maybe… but there were plenty in that who were either out of form, or who were unproven in a slog and clearly didn’t handle such testing conditions.. Rock the K, Tintern T- although he travelled like a good horse, but found out up home straight.
      The Dutchman… well I had my ‘i want a proven mud lover/stayer’ blinkers on given conditions and have no issues with fancying Hainan, maybe too bullish with 2 points- the more searching question is that i didn’t really consider him in much depth, due to those blinkers.. maybe if I had my ‘notes eyes’ (magic formula/unexposed/doing something different) on, he’d have been high up on list. He was the most fascinating in that given his profile..totally unexposed as a stayer.. if you look back through ,his two best runs arguably on heavy (novice hurdle win, run at Haydock two starts back in a decent hurdle, first run of season) and stamina was an unknown…every chance he would improve for it..esp when you look back, as I did post race, at much of his form…did shape like worth a crack at a trip. Stable form was a worry..2/50 last 30 days going into this..(they were quiet this time last year.. flue jabs and going easy on them over Xmas apparently) but he was 12s/14s early… so some pondering. Not annoyed I didn’t back him as such,but I know I didn’t consider him in as much depth as I clearly should have..as evidence by not mentioning him in the video!!
      I think you could also underestimate the form in the sense he has travelled so strongly on front end..he has gone too quick for Hainan, and served it up to Yala Enki for a long way… the latter struggled to keep tabs on him at his comfort zone, and he’s a decent enough yardstick in conditions. He has jumped and galloped. Cobden mentioned the Eider as a possibility. He is clearly smart, and they knew it.. I suspect he gives some good horses a race at home on gallops… they know a good chaser and the money came, connections bullish pre race in private apparently.
      One thing for me to think about, remind myself about, other than those failures of analysis above.. was pace.. he was inexperienced over fences.. you do not want that type buried away in a big field.. out front, with space to jump, is the best place to be.. they knew that, and ensure he was sent to the front- given they were confident in his jumping. It will be interesting to see how far he can progress.
      Josh

      Josh 21/01/18 1:33 PM Reply


  • I thought Scudamore gave our shortlisted horse Mount Oliver a superb ride. There a few stronger jockeys than him. Its no wonder he gets rides for stables like Tizzard,Mullholland, Nick Williams,Bridgwater,Tom Lacey and Steve Gollings yet is still stable jockey to a powerful stable in David Pipe. For me there is only Walsh,Geraghty and Johnson in front of him.

    Roddo 21/01/18 3:07 PM Reply


    • Yep it was very good.. they have gone hard to eye there but he has been up there the whole way, aggressive, jumping well, tactically astute. Horse has relished conditions..or handled better than anything else, but a very good ride. He doesn’t appear on any top 10 lists for various stats approaches to assessing ability/quality – Willo had another list on RUK today using the ‘Whitley’ scale.. some complex maths but in essence it doesn’t take account of the horse in the equation (obviously some jocks just ride superior horses so win more anyway). Danny Cook was on top of that pile.. him riding makes a horse 3L better off to the good, through his ability apparently) It was interesting if nothing else.
      Looking more closely at Mulhollands record in C5 handicaps here over last 5 years may have made me take more note.. I should have stayed in bed and had the morning off!
      Josh

      Josh 21/01/18 3:16 PM Reply


  • is chelmsford off?

    tonymc 21/01/18 3:08 PM Reply


    • racing was put back until 2.30 pm I think, clearing snow. I believe it is on, but shift every race back by X

      Josh 21/01/18 3:17 PM Reply


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