Members Daily Post: 20/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Ascot

1.15 –

Uhlan Bute (m1 + m2) ES 9/1 S3 UP

Russborough (m1) ES G1 16/1 S1 S2 S3  2nd 18/1 

2.25 –

Air Horse One (all hncps) I3 12/1 S2 S5 2nd 14/1 

Jenkins (m1) 14,30 H3 4/1  WON 5/1 

Burbank (m1) 14,30 14/1 S2 3rd 16/1 

3.00 – Tenor Nivernais (m1) ES I3 

 

Haydock

3.15 –

Tintern Theatre (m1) H3 I3 G3 6/1 S4  UP

Rock The Kasbah (m2) 14  H1 I1 6/1 UP

4.15 – Apollo Creed (hncp hurdle) G3 11/4  UP

 

Taunton

1.40 –

Master of Verse (nov hncps) G3 9/2  UP

Enola Gay (nov hncps) H1 I3 9/4 UP

2.15 – Irving (m2) H3 I3 G3  9/4 S4 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/14,8p, +12)  (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES

2.25 Ascot – Air Horse One 12s 2nd 14/1 / Burbank 14s 3rd 16s

*Well, the 1055/1 tricast, anyone put those three in a combo?? Nope, not me! Damn. Or the 66/1 combo forecasts??  I was rather hoping Jenkins was going to fall in a hole there..thought he was doing plenty and had stamina to prove in that ground..has gone toe to toe with one other a long way out also. But a braver performance, maybe you had a saver at 5s to cover stakes. I was excited all the way through that. Like Doncaster all over again, on we go. 

Air Horse One – 12s+ has lured me in for both of these. This one may have gone off the boil but it was an uncharacteristically bad day at the office LTO and you can forgive any horse one poor run, odds allowing. That can’t have been his running and suggests something was up. Harry Fry’s have been going ok in recent days and I thought if this one repeated either of his two previous runs he would be bang there at the finish. It is his first run in soft since winning over the CD last February. My suspicion is the handicapper may have him but I can’t say that for certain as yet and I actually thought this was a weak enough race.. plenty near the bottom, the likes of Oxwich Bay, really need to step up…he comes here having won at FFos Las in a C4 maiden hurdle! He may well step forward and have a stack in hand but plenty in here do need to improve. There is a chance none of them do and a repeat of this one’s better runs are enough to win it. At 12s I thought i’d roll the dice. He could well become a cliff horse for me, and I may well be impaled on the rocks after this one.

Burbank – Nicky Henderson appears to make the wrong decisions on which hurdlers to send chasing! His Lanzarote hurdle winner last weekend reverted to hurdles after a PU over fences and they haven’t wasted any time in putting this one back over hurdles. So, he reverts to hurdles, he also get first time CP (may or may not make a difference) and Henderson is in flying form. The main case is based on his run in last year’s Neptune Hurdle – at some point I’d like to think he will show himself to be well handicapped. He is unexposed in handicap hurdles and at 14s i thought i’d roll the dice. Soft is an unknown but he may well handle it/improve for it. At this price I didn’t want to over-think it and wonder what he would and wouldn’t like. He is unexposed and doing a few things differently, and the yard is red hot. He may well appreciate this bigger field/stronger pace. Hopefully it’s clear early on that he has settled, grabbed the bit and is travelling well. We could have some fun come the death if so.

Clearly Jenkins may well hack up again here if taking to the headgear for a second time. Sadly he wasn’t 12s+ and clearly LTO was the time to back him in 1st time blinkers, with an aggressive ride. Another of those 7/2 shots I haven’t got right! I won’t be putting you off him if you like the price.

 

Nothing else today.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.15 Taunt – Kings Lad (m1) 28/1 DNQ

Irish Angles

1.00 Nav – Catwalk King (25/1<)  12/1 UP

 

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield

12.20 –

Briyouni (all hncps) G3 6/1 UP

Bristol Missile (m1) 22/1 2nd 14/1

4.10- Secret Strategy (4yo+) ES  16/1 S3 3rd 

 

Chelmsford

8.15 – Emigrated (4yo+) 50/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I am off to Haydock on Saturday, if you’re going to say hello if you see me out and about!

Haydock

Having had a flick through not too much stands out and there are a few races i’ll just watch from track side.

I’ll throw some £5s around in the 12.55 and 4.15… 12.55 Hartside / Reverant Cust   4.15 Tanarpino / De Vous A Moi

Far from confident pokes but a bit of fun. I wouldn’t be backing those if I wasn’t going racing.

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NOTE!

Thanks to a tweet from Nick Luck and what appears to have been a mischievous comment from Charlie Mann (rubbishing one of his runners, ‘no chance’..won at 12/1) I have discovered the ‘lambourn trainers’ website where they give quotes on their daily runners. I’d never let a trainer comment put you off a horse necessarily, but you may find their views of interest.

You can find their thoughts on today’s runners, and the website more generally, HERE>>> 

(worth bookmarking)

(Nicky isn’t negative as to the chances of Burbank, so that’s something at least! The market would suggest otherwise)

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Not a good day so far. No winners and just a couple to come.

    Lingfield and Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:

    Lingfield
    1.25 Betsalottie 11/2
    2.00 Relevant 4/1
    2.35 Grand Inquisitor 14/1 & Lawless Secret 4/1
    4.10 Indian Affair 5/1 & Anonymous John (EW)

    Chelmsford
    6.15 Entertaining Ben 8/1
    6.45 Sweet Symphony 9/2 & No More Thrills 10/1
    8.15 Satchville Flyer 12/1
    8.45 The Night King 8/1
    1pt win except where noted

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 19/01/18 8:02 PM Reply


    • Just realised I forgot to put the odds against Anonymous John. I got 25/1 ew. Romped home from a long way out. Hope some of you had a bet?

      Ken McKenzie 20/01/18 4:24 PM Reply


      • Well done Ken, they keep ticking over! I’m sure a few did. Great win.

        Josh 20/01/18 4:26 PM Reply


      • Well played Ken 🙂 nice effort ………… my pin has fallen on
        6.15 Fast act , a stone+ below its last win here & jock in good form
        6.45 Mount Victoria, e/w ..drops back to class 5 from loftier heights
        7.15 Beautiful Memory , nice drop in class here
        7.45 Spinning Melody , got to take the fav on with this weight i think
        8.15 Satchville flyer , great minds n all that ! .. won off 72 goes off 53
        No cash left for last ! 🙂
        Good Luck

        joners 20/01/18 6:07 PM Reply


        • I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with your picks for 7.15 & 7.45 but too short for me to play

          Ken McKenzie 20/01/18 6:52 PM Reply


          • 8:15 ouch

            lightowlers 20/01/18 8:24 PM Reply


            • Mmmh that was a sore one! Left it a bit late to get going though.

              Ken McKenzie 20/01/18 8:37 PM Reply


              • Yeah had some 2nds lately mate..shows your on the money though

                lightowlers 20/01/18 8:45 PM Reply


                • Top draw Ken….your out on your own on the AW…

                  lightowlers 20/01/18 9:00 PM Reply


  • Plenty more good days to come Ken

    Chris 19/01/18 9:01 PM Reply


  • You know what they say about a wash out one day? Double stakes the next.

    martin colwell 19/01/18 9:18 PM Reply


  • Le Breuil Ascot Saturday 14:25 1pt e/w-Trainer is convinced he is a graded performer on a good mark and I am tempted to agree with him. All his form has been with soft ground. Horses which have ran in a grade 1 have a very good record in this including 3/10, 6p in the past 5 renewals. Other than Burbank he is the only one who qualifies on that front. Should be able to race prominently and with 4 places paid I thought looked worth a go.

    Nick Mazur 19/01/18 10:06 PM Reply


  • 15.45 Haydock ULBATIQUE (1pt win)

    LH, Flat track December and January: 11411

    15.00 Ascot FORTUNATE GEORGE (1pt win)

    RH track, handicaps 9 runners or less : 11

    15.25 Ascot AIR FORCE ONE (1/2 pt each way)

    RH track, 2m1f to 2m3.5f: 1111

    14.15 Taunton IRVINE (1pt win)

    Class 2 and below: 111

    David Peat 20/01/18 10:28 AM Reply


  • IMPORTANT…

    We had a minor lapse this morning when the security certificate expired. It’s nothing major and has been sorted now, but it should really be renewed before it expires every 3 months or so, apols.

    Josh

    Josh 20/01/18 10:30 AM Reply


  • The Williams – Kelly Hurdles micro has a runner today, 2.25 Asc, Night of Sin.

    I woud lay Dan McGrue, 1.05 Tau and Chef D’Equipe, 1.15 Asc.

    Back Karam Albaari, 2.00 LP. Won well LTO and can progress pass these.

    Lay Jenkins, 2.25 Asc, I dont think that just because he won last week in blinkers he is a new horse and has enough weight here.

    Apparently Yala Enki, 3.15 HP, only runs well if he plays up beforehand and plays the jockey up. So watch the prelims and back him if he plays up and not if he behaves. As outsiders I like Fine Rightly and Knockanrawley for a punt.

    Un De Sceaux outclasses these, 3.35 Asc. Maybe San Benedeto for the forecast?

    Santini, 4.05 Asc, a good race but if the horse is as good as they say he has to win this.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 20/01/18 11:35 AM Reply


  • Great runs from both Burbank and Air Force One – a tremendous race to watch and you simply have to give credit to Jenkings who stayed on resolutely and was always in the front line.

    Still great tipping Josh – no shame in coming 2nd & 3rd to the winner; hopefully luck will even itself out over time.

    Andy

    Andrew 20/01/18 3:06 PM Reply


    • cheers Andy, a frustrating day all round, that’s how it goes – if only Jenkins had pulled harder/didn’t get home!, but great runs from the pair and had me on edge of seat until late on. I do enjoy rattling the woodwork. Yep, he showed a great attitude there, and went at it from a long way..they always thought he was smart and headgear seems to have done the trick for now.
      Yep, if enough keep running like that, the winners will come.

      Josh 20/01/18 4:28 PM Reply


  • Been following S2 hit the woodwork today still in profit long term thanks Josh. Stephen

    Stephen Williams 20/01/18 6:19 PM Reply


    • Cheers Stephen, yep they had a really hot streak, then a shocker, and now going through there hitting the woodwork/occasional winner phase! With any luck a hot streak again soon..
      Are you following any of the bigger priced ones EW with success?
      S2 is a roller-coaster ride, of emotions and betting bank, that’s for sure..2017 very good over the year, fingers crossed 2018 will follow suit.
      Josh

      Josh 20/01/18 6:26 PM Reply


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