Free Daily Post: 19/01/18 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/17,6p, +6.5)

3.20 Chep

Wood Yer – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) 11/1 (bet365) Fell

Astigos – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) UP *

*oh well, as has been proved before, in general I’m a crap judge of a 4/1 shot, getting plenty more wrong than right, when to go with them, when not, when to leave the race! 4s was overpriced against his SP and the style of victory. And the picks were both crap. A double whammy. Moving on. Poor week 

 

I started looking at this race wondering whether I could justify going with the Daly horse at 4s but concluded that felt about right. He is a young horse, inexperienced, first experience of this galloping track and has 11-12 on his back in what could be a right old slog. They had 8mm on Wednesday, 1mm on Thursday and dry since, with a dry day ahead. This ground could be anything – the type where you simply don’t know if they will handle it until they run on it. IF it is ‘normal’ heavy, he could be fine. But that is a big weight to lug around. The yard is on fire and his patient style will help here. I won’t fall of my seat if he takes this but at 4s I was happy to leave it. Getting myself to a point where I bottle taking this type on will cost me winners/profit in the long run. The same can be said for the fav, who may well bolt up again. However 9/4 seems short enough given he won’t get an easy lead, this is a different test altogether, and it is a deeper race. He faced nothing LTO. Two old boys who needed the run and the second fav was a Tizzard horse (been out of form) that PU the run before. He is clearly progressive but will need to step forward again.

So, clearly, the market suggests one of those two has this. BUT, if they do falter, which isn’t impossible, I’d have been disappointed in myself if I hadn’t taken them on with something. Other than this being stamina sapping ground which can lead to strange results I also thought they may go too hard up front. There are 4/5 in this who like to get on with it and it could be a lesser version of the Welsh National pace. Sometimes when I think that the jockeys decide to be sensible and having said that Sam probably now gets an easy lead! But, they could do too much, and all fall in a hole up the home straight.

Wood Yer – well this is his fourth run after a break and these older horses can take a while to get fit. I just have a few marathon efforts on my mind with him – at Huntingdon where he was going close but for being hampered at the last, Bangor and Haydock, in a better race than this, where but for an awful error a couple out would have been much closer. His mark is falling, he has a good record in this class and a fairly light weight- certainly compared to the market principals. That could count for plenty in this, as we saw at Wincanton yesterday. The final piece in the jigsaw was the visor returning. He has only worn it once a long time ago, on good ground in far from ideal conditions. This will feel different for him and if it could spark him up and make him travel better, he could have a say. I thought there were signs of life LTO. So, we shall see. I thought 10s was worth a dart as it could be argued he is the stoutest stayer in this race. If he can jump and keep going, that could be enough.

Astigos – a real dart who could do anything here. He really does need them all to fall in a hole but that isn’t impossible as discussed. He is out the handicap but the 7lb claim offsets that and also ensures he has nothing on his back in actual weight terms. He also comes here fit and in form. He has run a couple of decent enough runs the last twice, staying on/plodding on at the end, rather than going backwards. Having looked at the runners and then looked at the market, 20s just caught my eye. My instinct said to have a dart. Not many of these come off in time but you don’t need many to hit he bulls-eye. I think he will stay and it could be he just wants a test like this now. Provided he doesn’t get too far back but can just sit and jump away in midfield, he will keep going. 3/4 others may be long gone by then but if not he could take this. No forlorn hope and unlike a few in here i’m confident he will run his race. This is only his 3rd handicap chase run in the mud over 24/25f since December 2015. His last run before that was a 7l second at Wincanton off OR120. He hasn’t exactly been over-raced in what could now be more suitable race conditions. He will need plenty to fall his way but 20s shots do and hopefully I am entertained.

GL if you play, we will need it!

Josh

 

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.5 Muss – Swing Hard  (12/1<)

 

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11 Comments

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  • You were right about Rathlin Josh the Welsh national took its toll on him
    and he was never going.
    Dawson ran well but not quite up to par

    will be looking at those Military races again for Rathlin as I think they will rest him up and go there
    Fresh

    peter 19/01/18 9:52 AM Reply


  • Wind operations are being declared for the first time today and there are 4 horses
    who are running after one of 5 different ops available.(which op they have had isn’t made public)

    It is a bit of a guess how these horse will run or how it will effect the market
    but my gut feeling is the punters will see that the horse may improve for the operations
    and may over bet the horses involved.

    my logic is that the declaration that a horse has had a wind op flags up
    that the horse had a problem in the first place
    and I also have a hunch that the form or these type of horse could be a bit unpredictable
    either improving massively or trailing in because the breathing problem hasn’t been cured.

    it may well improve some horses but I will be happy to look elsewhere
    when one of this type is put in a short priced favourite
    when the mud is flying even more so

    When I play e/w with the 2nd or third fav against an odds on shots
    I am happy to take on any odds on poke with first time head gear
    first time over a new distance(or even better multiple defeats at a certain trip)
    first time on heavy first time tounge tie, etc
    so I think first time after a wind op will also go on the list

    peter 19/01/18 10:05 AM Reply


    • A wind op will improve a horse’s breathing but by how much? If I had a wind op I could likely run a bit faster but probably by not much. I dont think that there is much evidence that horses form improves significantly after.

      Re headgear, same thing really, may help but……if the horses are not committed to the cause it will have minimal impact I think.

      martin colwell 19/01/18 10:21 AM Reply


      • Lots of money for one of the wind op horses
        Dr Hooves.

        peter 19/01/18 2:26 PM Reply


    • Some horses do not improve post op, until they have had a couple of outings, to discover that the past problem has vanished and they can now breathe freely at racing pace.

      chrisrees 19/01/18 10:44 AM Reply


  • Copied from member site last night
    M-1.45 Hot Gossip e/w @ 25-33/1
    The name alone brought a lascivious smile ….and a backhander from the Mrs. Any part of her hand in the right place would have sufficed but no I get the full ‘it were that dark haired raunchy bitch that you thought of when in bed with me wan’t it’. ‘ No love, I only watched Kenny Everett for Captain Kremmen, honest’ ahem, sorry I digress

    Forged through the mud at Perth on it’s deb to take 3rd. Should be lighter and pacier going tomoz which should suit a progeny of Fast Company.

    If HG places I’ll have a 1/2 bet on the same team with Endeavour in the 2.55 if still around the current 25’s
    * this now only 2 places
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 19/01/18 10:15 AM Reply


  • Great minds think alike and hopefully you are spot on Josh as from our totally different methods we seem to have landed on the same pair. Fingers Crossed.

    On the subject of wind op’s the following told me by Oliver Sherwood with regard to a horse I had a small share in might be helpful!

    The actual wind operation is quite minor but it is a surgical procedure and therefore the horse is on the easy list for 3-4 weeks after the operation and that assumes no complications. It is then a case of re-building stamina and strength. Ours had her operation just before Christmas and the original prediction was she would be back in 8 weeks. However; she has had slight swelling so now looking at 10 weeks.

    The only one declared as having had a wind op today that I have looked at is Alberobello and that was actually declared to have had its wind operation on the 31st October, so the timing certainly feels about right for it to come back to racing. Important though I think to bear in mind that fitness will have been lost and will need to have had the equivalent of another “pre season” and also a lot of trainers have lost 2-3 gallops in snow and frost just before Christmas, and in the case of this horse that would be just as planned build up should have been occurring.

    So, is a wind op a magic cure?, what a few Trainers have told me is that it can really help “some” horses; but you tend to hear about the ones that are helped and not those that are not, and the figures most expressed are about 15-20% of horses see some form of improvement. So Alberobello today will need to op to have helped but also need to get over a fitness and racing break and run in deep mud. If it wins I’m sure the twittersphere will go ballistic about “following wind op’s” my view is that this is less a miracle magic cure, but more something that can help some horses so is not that different to visors; blinkers; tongue ties etc….it will be interesting to map progress of these horses now the info is declared and also interesting to correlate not just first run back but subsequent runs once race fitness is assured.

    Ian SP2A 19/01/18 10:25 AM Reply


  • Re Wood Yer – The NTD stable says………………

    Wood Yer is Down 11lbs since this time last year, now on a mark of 106, but ran creditably in his last outing at Ffos Las four weeks ago, being prominent until fading late on. He drops back a couple of furlongs today, goes well on the prevailing ground and swaps cheekpieces for a visor. A good run expected and looks to have each way credentials. Jamie Bargary takes off a further 3lbs.

    Nigel 19/01/18 1:44 PM Reply


    • Cheers Nigel.. your namesake generally thinks all of his runners have an EW chance haha – but best to be optimistic.. I assume you may be a regular reader of his comments.. picked up any clues as to when they really expect one to go well? They are never negative against a horse’s chance I don’t think!
      Josh

      Josh 19/01/18 1:47 PM Reply


      • Best to look out for ‘good run expected’ without the ‘each way’ addition in the comments.

        Most of his winners have comments like ‘good run expected’, ‘very good run expected’ or ‘should go very well’ without reference to each way chances. Anything priced 6/1 or less with the above comments is worth paying particular attention to.

        You are right though, he does seem to think that most of his runners have an ew chance.

        Nigel Barnes 19/01/18 2:19 PM Reply


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