Members Daily Post: 19/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Musselburgh

1.15 –

Attention Please (hncp chase) H1 I1 7/2  5/1 – Fell 2 out, staying on

Misfits (m1)  H3 7/2  WON 7/2> 11/2 

 

Chepstow

2.45 – Drumviredy (m1/m1/m2) G1 14/1 S1 S2 UP

3.50 – Becauseshesaidso (hnpc chase + m1 + m1) H3 G3  7/2 WON 4/1

 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/13,8p, +13)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

 

1.15 Muss – Attention Please – 7/2 (gen) Fell 2 out, 5/1

Ah damn.. it was going to be a 1-2 in that race for the section 1 qualifiers, and i’m not sure in what order… Attention Please was just starting to get going when clipping the top of 2 out, coming down too steep, game over. He’d have gone close, hard to say it he’d have won but you have to jump. Something about those fences up the straight he didn’t like.   A drift for the winner, getting his head in front on the 17th start of his life. I was never going to put him up at 7/2 this morning. Moving on. 

Having had a good look at this race I thought 7/2 was fair enough for this one and arguably he could be a point shorter/clear fav. He comes here at the top of his game and much like The Man From Minella yesterday (who I got completely wrong at Wincanton) looks a completely different horse with the application of headgear. This one has responded to cheekpieces the last twice in emphatic style. I think he still has a stack in hand here having bolted up at Catterick… the winning margin was diminishing at the line but I think that’s because he thought he’d done enough. This shorter run in after the last should help in that regard. He travels well and jumps well, dropping in class and distance from LTO. Rail movements mean this race is actually 84 yards shorter than advertised, so near enough 2m7f. In soft ground I hope his extra stamina comes to the fore. He does have to prove he handles soft but so does every other horse in this really – it is a question for all the main contenders and his best form has been the last twice with cut. And he has never run on it with cheepieces on. I thought his current well-being and progressive profile made up for that niggle. He is double top rated as well, so some evidence on ‘the numbers’. This is a weaker race than the last day and if he can get into a rhythm and keep tabs on the leaders he should go close to bringing up his hat-trick. More Madness chased him home the last day but was flattered by how close he finished and is now 0/30 in handicap chases. If he runs the same race again he may be thereabouts but you can’t trust this 11 yo to win for you. I’ve made a judgement that the Misfits/Smiling Jessica form is much weaker than the selections. That was a novice handicap chase they competed in the last day and I didn’t think much to the latters jumping, shifting out to the left and ponderous. They also pottered around to my eye. This could be different. I may have read that completely wrong and they are both unexposed in this sphere. That just leaves Havana Jack.. who could well be the main danger, Danny Cook riding. I don’t think he will get an easy lead as a handful in here like to get on with it- but we could be in trouble if he does. Often when Cook wants to dominate he is able to…and many of the other front runners are ridden by claimers who may defer to his seniority.  Pre race all jockeys chat about who wants to make the running etc, and if Cook says i’m leading, you know you’re buggering up your chance if you try to take him on. So, we shall see. I don’t know why he should improve on his last run here and he is another where soft is unknown. But he brings a different formline into this and is the one I fear most. I discounted Misfits at the prices but often when I tip in a race that has multiple qualifiers in section 1, something else bolts up! A fine judge. 🙂

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The Sweeney…hmm… another crisp £10 note loaned back to the bookies..he has run like a non-stayer there. Jumped/travelled well into it, but found nothing for pressure from 3 out or so. I suspect he will be dropped in trip next time and i’ll keep a watchful eye on him. He has ability, if they find the key. Maybe when Gavin Sheehan is booked, talking of which…

What else did I note yesterday… Scholfield had a 9/1 winner for Jeremy Scott, i should make more effort flicking through his rides in the coming weeks. That man Gavin Sheehan rode a 16/1 winner for his boss, making handicap hurdle debut. I did look at the horse pre race, as WGs stats with 1st time handicappers are decent. And even better now. Alas, I didn’t have a penny on. Savoy Court is a unit of a horse.. a bit old boat. Sheehan thought he handled the ploughed field, rather than enjoying it,and he would be better on a decent surface. He does look like he lacks a change of gears but would just keep going for you. One to keep in mind when a slog and those attributes are all you need.. a 26f handicap at FFos Las/Chepstow in the mud. Wincanton was funny old ground.  You simply handled it or you didn’t with many horses done for down the back straight. It wasn’t ‘wet heavy’ so keep that in mind for that meeting, if ever coming across a horse that ran there on 18/01/18 – the run can probably be forgiven.

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That’s it for the jumps action today. Saturday… i’ll see if there are any stats/trends for the G3 handicap hurdle from Ascot. Provided the meeting is on i’ll be off to Haydock on Saturday. Looks a decent enough card with the Peter Marsh the highlight. 8am inspection makes it tricky.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield

3.05 – Malt Tease (m2) H3 G1  S2

Dundalk

6.00 – Lamh Ar Lamh (4yo+) ES+

6.30 – Carried (4yo+)

7.30 –

Arbourfield (4yo+) H3

Mokhalad (4yo+)

8.30 – Burn The Boats (m2)

 

Newcastle – NONE

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No others.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

A couple of days back Ben (I think it was a Ben, correct me if not) asked if I had any data on the ES and ES+ (Strategies S3 and S3A) strategies when combined with other strategies or ratings pointers. I didn’t, but I do now. I have been through every jumps qualifier since the start of September looking at their performance when they were also an S1, S4 and S5. But also their performance against each ratings pointer.. H1/3  I1/3 G1/3 

 

I’ll detail the results and then add some thoughts..

Elite Squad (S3) + Other Strategies (S1/4/5)

  1. ES + S1 : 1/15,6p, +2
  2. ES + S4: 7/16, 11p, +10.75
  3. ES + S5: 1/11,2p, +10

Elite Squad + Ratings Pointers

  1. ES + H1 : 5/20,12pm -4,75
  2. ES + I1: 2/10,6p, -1.5
  3. ES + G1: 2/16,5p, -10
  4. ES + H3: 6/31,13p, -6
  5. ES + I3: 7/44,15p, -0.75
  6. ES + G3: 10/43,19p, +12.5

 

Elite Squad + Double Rated (any 2 of H1/3, I1/3, G1/G3) Including ‘treble rated’ (S4)

(Example: ES H1 G3) : 10/45,21p, -5.25

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Thoughts: Not too much on the ‘elite squad’ approach… when an ES qualifier is also treble rated isn’t bad, but small numbers and not too out of line with all S4 qualifiers.

ES (S3) hasn’t performed well in recent weeks generally and it could be I was too quick to assume it was a valid approach. It may just be useless, as discussed in recent results updates. It has been on quite the losing run.

There is more hope on the Elite Squad+ (S3A) as below. This is a more robust foundation given the approach to the angles within the TTP …  at least 10 winners, 25% win SR, 50% win/place, so in theory you’d expect it to do better I think, given there is more evidence of historical success/it being a pattern of behaviour.

So, same again as above but with ES+…

Elite Squad+ (S3A) + Other Strategies (S1/4/5)

  1. ES+ + S1 : 0/5,0p, -5
  2. ES+ + S4: 3/15,6p, +2
  3. ES+ + S5: 0/7,1p, -7

Elite Squad + Ratings Pointers

  1. ES+ + H1 : 2/12,5p, -8.25
  2. ES+ + I1: 4/18,6p, -6
  3. ES+ + G1: 0/6,2p, -6
  4. ES+ + H3: 7/28, 10p, +13.6
  5. ES+ + I3: 5/23,8p, +12.5
  6. ES+ + G3: 6/27,8p, +8.5 

Elite Squad+, + Double Rated (any 2 of H1/3, I1/3, G1/G3) including ‘treble rated’ (S4)

(Example: ES+ I3 G3) : 10/37, 16p, +16.35 

Again everything here is small sample sizes so should be treated with caution. As always with any ‘ratings pointer’ based approach there is more hope/confidence that results may repeat over time. And ES+ is meant to be the ‘best of’ my trainer research from the TTP reports.  There appears to be some promise in looking at S3A qualifiers when they have a ratings pointer (not top rated) alongside.. H3 or I3 or  G3  

All of those combined (numbers 4/5/6 in the bullets above) : 18/78,26p, +34.6  (that does includes multiple qualifiers)

And those that are ‘double rated’ with two ratings pointers, (also includes treble rated) have done well enough from a small sample. That all makes logical sense. I will track those two approaches with the ES+ and if nothing else it’s useful to know if looking at any S3A qualifiers as starting points, and good for me to know when assessing if I want to ‘tip’ any such horse in the notes.

Do with that info as you please. I’ll add another appendix to the weekly results updates.

Any questions, fire away.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Thanks for that Josh (it was me). Much appreciated as always and interesting reading. Will be good to see how it develops over time.

    Cheers

    Ben

    921389 18/01/18 6:41 PM Reply


  • Could it be that systematic approaches mostly have a shortish shelf life or tend to have a largely even amount of ups and downs over a long period never really end up doing much? I use around 80 micros and there’s plenty in there that don’t really go anywhere long term!
    They all need managing and tweaking which is time consuming when time is at a premium, so maybe less is more for me!
    I hate the ones that work when the logic isn’t necessarily apparent which is odd because I should love those as they’re making a decent consistent profit!
    There are certainly some weird anomalies with racing numbers now and again, often disguising themselves as sound logic.
    Crafty little buggers.

    Chris 18/01/18 7:57 PM Reply


    • I am always tweaking, deleting and adding micros. I take them from others and create my own from observations. You are correct in that most have a limited shelf life. Strategies are the same I think. I like those with just a few runners each week and relate to trainers and riders who are not A listers and so go off at a price.

      martin colwell 18/01/18 10:22 PM Reply


      • Yep exactly what I do, poaching and tweaking! with moments of divine inspiration when I create an under the radar micro. Just don’t have enough time to approach it another way unfortunately. I do need to stop betting at the sharp end of the market more though!!

        Chris 19/01/18 1:40 AM Reply


    • Yep can depend on the approach. That’s why I’m a fan of trainer angles.. provided the logic is sound you are living in hope/expectation that the pattern of behaviour will be repeated over time. And with trainer angles you will never have massive sample sizes but provided the logic is sound it doesn’t matter so much – certainly in terms of starting points. But, that’s also why I like the ‘fusion’ idea with the ratings pointers and finding strategies around them..they are a constant and add sophistication given trainer angles never consider the actual horse running that day, and their ability in the context of the overall race etc. Those angles focused on unexposed horses that have yet to win/or not many wins, in certain race types can pay their way – the Lacey angle being a good example.
      But as with any trainer angle things can change which affect their methods/success.. failing to restock with quality horses/a bad buying year/existing horses simply getting in the grip of the handicap all at a similar time- can happen if trainer hits a golden spell of form, then a fallow period unless new blood coming through/loss or addition of big owners > money they spend>quality of stock / loss of a key jockey / change in yard / change in training regime we are not aware of until enough evidence etc etc. So many factors can affect performance/drop off.. a farmer planting old seed rape all of a sudden nearby- that buggered up Malcolm Saunders for a year or so. Horses hate the stuff/respiratory problems.
      The problem with the ‘Elite Squad’ is that the numbers may just not be robust enough as an indication of behaviour- at least not systematically as stand alone track angles. Fine for starting points where apply own subjective form/profile analysis and clearly when a few ratings points..S4 in particular.
      Anyway, a few thoughts.
      Josh

      Josh 19/01/18 1:03 PM Reply


  • Feeling the need to utilise Josh’s whip right about now since I honestly think I should have found that 100/1 winner today but moving squarely on just the one for me tomorrow:

    Kings Cross Chepstow Friday 15:50 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 18/01/18 9:14 PM Reply


  • It was looking like another poor day until Volatile popped up with a win at 10/1 early/BOG (13.77 BFSP) to give us a small win of 1pt on the day.

    AW meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    12.55 Red Snapper 5/1
    1.25 Avon Green 9/2
    2.00 Bayston Hill 6/1 & Jumping Jack9/1
    3.05 Strictly Art 11/2 & Malt Teaser 11/2

    Newcastle
    6.15 Peas on Earth 16/1
    7.45 Mr. Potter 7/1 & Broughton’s Fancy 5/1
    8.15 Jessie Allan 15/2
    8.45 Eternalist 11/2
    1pt win each

    One or two prices may have dropped (or risen) since I took my bets a couple of hours ago. Had stuff to do so didn’t have time to post until now.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 18/01/18 9:23 PM Reply


    • BOG at its finest, as you put him up at 4/1 last night

      Chris 19/01/18 1:43 AM Reply


  • M-1.45 Hot Gossip e/w @ 25-33/1
    The name alone brought a lascivious smile ….and a backhander from the Mrs. Any part of her hand in the right place would have sufficed but no I get the full ‘it were that dark haired raunchy bitch that you thought of when in bed with me wan’t it’. ‘ No love, I only watched Kenny Everett for Captain Kremmen, honest ahem, sorry I digress

    Forged through the mud at Perth on it’s deb to take 3rd. Should be lighter and pacier going tomoz which should suit prodigy of Fast Company.

    If HG places I’ll have a 1/2 bet on the same team with Endeavour in the 2.55 if still around the current 25’s

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 18/01/18 10:08 PM Reply


    • My heads still trying to get them saintly thoughts of HG out, I of course meant to write PROGENY

      titus_a_duxass 18/01/18 10:14 PM Reply


  • 3.20 Chep – two big priced pokes who could do anything, just what we like…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/01/19/free-daily-post-19-01-18-tips/

    Josh 19/01/18 10:13 AM Reply


  • Not the greatest racing on a Friday. Lucinda Russell has a good record in Handicap hurdles at Musselburgh and has Alizee De Janiero in the 12.40 and two runners in the 3.30. I hear that Show Stealer is going well at home and is expected to win the 2.30 LP. However as with all racing on the sand you need the luck as well as the speed. We shall see.

    I believe that Haydock is threatened by frost and overnight temperatures not warming up quick enough in the morning. I would imagine it is pretty heavy anyway.
    It is bloody cold here in the Garden of England today! Looks hot in Australia.

    Good luck today.

    martin colwell 19/01/18 10:36 AM Reply


  • The 3.05 Ling was a pretty poor race, win by Oregon Gift.

    For your amusement, comment from trainer this morning….

    ”Absolutely useless. Doesn’t have any chance at all and it will be out of my yard on Saturday I think. No good, leave it alone”

    🙂 I’ve seen negative comments before, but not one quite this scathing that went on to win.

    Steve C 19/01/18 4:07 PM Reply


    • Yep I found that rather amusing.. saw some chat about that on the tweet machine… trainer has a good record with new recruits, having looked post race, 5/13 +26 before today’s 12/1 winner, in last 2 years.

      In any case, the site that this quote was from looks a decent resource/info, but a reminder to never be put off a horse by the trainer’s comments!

      https://lambourntrainers.com/todays-lambourn-runners/

      Josh 19/01/18 4:11 PM Reply


  • Might be worth keeping an eye on Ben My Chree 6.15 40-1 in places

    P first time, ridden by Lee (who has been on a few of Smart’s sprinter winners, incl Mythmaker recently), and owned by Middleham Park Racing who I imagine will be keen to get at least a low level win out ofher….+ breeding suggests might be better than shown so far.

    Not beyond impossible to see an improved run and none of these jump out as anything out of the ordinary.

    I don’t have access to anything that will show whether unfancied Middleham Park runners can turn up unexpectedly.

    Steve C 19/01/18 5:04 PM Reply


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