Members Daily Post: 18/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Ludlow

3.45 – Three Star General (m1) I1 12/1 S2 S5 UP 20/1

 

Wincanton

2.10 –

Dawson City (all hncps) I3 G1 14/1 S1 S2 S5  3rd 11/2 

Wuff (m1 + m1) I1 13/2    S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

3.20 – The Brothers  ES 20/1 S2 S3 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/13,8p, +13)  (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES – None today. 

A good day on Wednesday and nice to finally bag a big priced jumps notes horse… I think that may be the first one north of 12/1…shocking. I may have a poor memory though. He hit the magic formula..unexposed , handicap hurdle debut at the track where trainer has the best record with such types, the massive step up in trip, headgear, break (I wonder what they did in those 53 days) and soft ground all working wonders. He drifted after the reformed market so never again should we pay much attention to the odds of horses from the Skelton yard. A lack of market support is clearly no indication with an unexposed type. He was the sort of price where you are best not thinking about it too much. And a nice 112/1 forecast…Doug had a go, I hope some others did also. One day i’ll learn! 🙂 A welcome winner for systematic S2 backers also, phew.

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Horse of interest… when I flick through the races to find the qualifiers above the odd horse jumps out at me every now and then…well, Emma Lavelle is firmly on my radar at the moment. Not enough for me to have backed her 16/1>8/1 bumper winner at Market Rasen on Wednesday, more fool me..and that man Sheehan was on as well. She runs ‘The Sweeney’ (i quite enjoyed the Ray Winstone remake) in the 3.45 who makes handicap hurdle debut. We have noted before her stats with handicap debutants, 5/12,7p in the last year, +17. I don’t think you’d go far wrong backing them blind. Like Tom Lacey she seems very adept at sourcing nice young prospects and many perform well over hurdles. She is ‘in form’ at present also. This one steps up in trip by half a mile and her ‘distance’ move stats are decent enough. He ran an interesting race LTO, not really knocked about. He ran as if needed further having travelled well into the race. That run was after 28 days also, and he comes here 12 days later. I find that sort of rest pattern interesting, especially with this profile. This doesn’t look a strong race on paper . I am yet to look at the Pipe horse in much depth.. I am wondering why Scu isn’t at Wincanton to ride Rathlin Rose (who may be knackered from the Welsh Nat but if he is a price i may not be able to resist a dabble in the free post) but then D Noonan rode Pipe’s winner at Newbury when Scu was at MR so maybe best not overthinking that. Anyway, do with those musings as you please. 9/2, 5/1 feels ok…only just… I know he is fit, ground looks fine, trainer in form and the horse has shown ability… I’ll leave you to judge whether that is value as you know me and that end of the market! I’ll throw something at him to end any chance he has 🙂

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

1.20 –

Big Amigo (4yo+ + m1) ES H3 9/2 S3 UP

Moi Aussie (m2) ES+ I3 33/1 S3A UP

2.55 –

Luv U Whatever (4yo+) H3 I3 3/1 

Ingleby Spring (m1) H1 G1 6/4 S1

The Lock Master (m2) 10/1

4.05 – Stoneboat Bill (m1 + m1) I3 9/1 

 

Chelmsford 

5.55 –

Run With Pride (4yo+) 14/1

Lanjano (m1) H3 10/1

7.30 – Nonios (all hncps) 14,30 ES+  I3 6/1 S3A 

8.30 – Cool Breeze (all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 5/2 S3A

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Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.45 Winc – Triopas 7/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Article: The Week That Was #10 READ HERE>>>

The notebook horses previously discussed on video / a quick look at Nick Scholfield / Ben Poste / Katy Price (not Katie Price!!)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

30 Comments

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  • Ben Curtis is in red hot form at the moment.You could nearly back all his rides blind at present.The pick tomorrow is Big Amigo 1.20 Southwell,just about scrapes into value at 13/2 BV

    gearoid180468 17/01/18 6:44 PM Reply


  • The Sandman has finally slain the Newcastle demons!!!

    Chris 17/01/18 6:46 PM Reply


    • Haha. Phew!!

      Ken McKenzie 17/01/18 8:25 PM Reply


  • Just to remind everyone how much the bookies are con artists…..

    …. I’ve probably lost hundreds with betfair over the last 3/4 year until this year I stopped being a mug punter (I was part of the 97%) ! , I stopped betting for a short while, researched a few things and started following a select couple of websites/tipsters , now with a clear plan in place and no more losses I have had a few winners the last days (not a huge amount, small stakes etc) and betfair have now restricted me to a few pence on most horses. This has infuriated me, no word from them why, only just found out when going to put tomorrow’s bets on. Biggest con going these outfits.

    Matt M

    Matt M 17/01/18 8:19 PM Reply


    • Yep very frustrating. It will be the decision of some computer. Probably doesn’t like something you’ve done! BetfSports restricted me within a handful of bets a couple of years back, only 5s/10s, not sure I even won anything. Stan James restricted when I back a few too many horses that shortened, accused me of arbing and that was that! I think I won £250 with Coral over a 7 week period a few years back and they restricted me. I suspect my computer had this spyware kit on, infected via flash, that they use to track your activity..they will know if you use oddschecker and are hunting around for best price etc. They don’t like that!

      Matt B wrote an article on iesnare and how to rid computer of it, I should probably have a look at doing this!

      https://www.geegeez.co.uk/iesnare-how-bookmakers-are-spying-on-you-from-your-own-computer/

      Josh

      Josh 17/01/18 8:25 PM Reply


      • I have actually heard of that spy software before but I put all my bets on using my phone , hardly ever use the computer. BFSB aren’t even my main bookie, 365 are, only just started using sportsbook again. Hope I don’t lose 365 anytime soon. Being punished here for a little bit of success!

        Matt M 17/01/18 8:32 PM Reply


        • I think betting in the evening can be a trigger, and taking standout price. Somehow I’m still protecting B365/PP but I rarely bet the night before… i’d like to think the ‘notes’ total proves you don’t have to in order to find value but time will tell. And I rarely got with B365/ PP if they are standout price. PP may be 14/1 when everyone else is 12s, well I will just take the 12s somewhere else. I don’t know if that has any effect or not but i suspect they know when any price is standout and as such a bet on that may alert them to activity/account etc. They will disappear at some point. You never know, BF exchange may vanish one day and bookmaking will go back to normal! Minimum liabilities are not far off I don’t think.

          Josh 17/01/18 8:38 PM Reply


          • This little bastard requires flash working with javascript for it’s dirty deeds. I haven’t had flash on my pc since I lost most of my main a/cs within a few days of each other and did some investigating on why and how. Every a/c I had bar Whill used ie/mpsnare . If I could put up with cumbersome and incomplete sites I’d get rid of javascript too.
            Firefox and no flashplayer works for me. I can’t watch the bookies tv but there’s plenty of alternatives.
            They can’t work on your mobile either,
            No doubt in time they’ll found another way to glean the info they want but by doing so they will probably fall on the wrong side of that very fine line they are traversing at present.

            Mike

            titus_a_duxass 17/01/18 10:03 PM Reply


            • There is a way to block IEsnare all together so that it cannot be installed on your machine. Means you dont need to get rid of flash or javascript. I did it many moons ago for a specific reason and the only accounts I have lost are Boylesports (within 5 bets), Ladbrokes (within 5 bets) and Totesport/Betfred.

              They use IESNARE but its also about the types of bets you place, when you place them, and if they can associate you to a profitable syndicate group. I know for a fact they monitor social media for profitable punters and will then flag them alongside anyone else that follows them. Also if you are using the accounts to benefit from offers constantly they will restrict you as they know youre just laying ti off on the exchange and removing any value.

              For instance, a well known punter on twitter who is profitable at big odds. The minute his selections go out BetfairSB cut the price. They will aslo flag you if you are consistently following them.

              The major issue is you taking value out the market. not so much your profitablilty. Thats why it can be a good idea throwing in dummy bets on odds on favs now and again as they rarely have any juice left in them.

              Definately get rid of IESNARE though and block it from being reinstalled on your machine. Instructions easily available on the net.

              Mart 18/01/18 11:46 AM Reply


              • For some reason BFSP seemed to be watching my account a couple of months ago. As soon as I placed any sort of bet at early prices, even 10p, they cut the odds automatically. I had a couple of friends check, but it wasn’t happening with their accounts. The stakes didn’t matter, how many horses I backed didn’t matter, they just cut everything when I backed it. I tried backing all 5 runners in a race – sure enough they cut the odds of every one. Crazy.

                Neil 18/01/18 1:54 PM Reply


          • I have to disagree with you Josh, I think they watch your type of bets, I regularly bet the evening before and get very good prices, I am a regular E/W Lucky 15 punter, for example last night I backed Roberts Star25/1, Absolutely Dylan 20/1, a non-runner and a 7/1 winner who’s price didn’t alter, I regularly beat the SP, I have been restricted by Paddy Power after 5 bets and didn’t win, strange but just like you said some computer thought I was arbing.
            As for Sportingbet that’s another story for another day.
            Cheers,
            Greg

            Greg Phillips 17/01/18 10:20 PM Reply


      • I have swopped from the Chrome browser to Brave. It is encrypted and much more resistant to spyware etc. It is very little different in operation although it does not support the chrome extensions for the Ledger Crypto wallet. Free and easy to download amd one small kick against the Google pricks and the bookmakers.
        https://dzone.com/articles/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-brave-web-br

        alpha2 18/01/18 10:28 AM Reply


    • While we’re bookie bashing can I put in a nomination for Boylesports 🙂
      I placed precisely ten bets with them, four of them won and they banned me for life (except of course from the casino). In 15 yrs of betting across different sites they are the only ones (so far) to take any sort of action. Scumbags!

      Lynn 17/01/18 10:08 PM Reply


      • Yes Boylesports, a very odd bunch of people! I opened an account a while ago and then had a few phone calls from Ireland asking me personal questions to do with compliance. Anyway they eventually opened the account for me. I did a bet £50 win, they said it was too much and restricted me to £10 max straight away. How bizarre.

        I would watch night before bets to any more than £10. I was talking to a guy who worked at William Hill and he said they do track such activity. I had a look on BET365 this evening and they had best price on a number of races via Oddschecker. However when you clicked on it it kept coming up Market Suspended. However when they were not best price you could get on and the market was not suspended. What a coincidence.

        If bookmakers were footballers they would fall down in the opponents penalty box more than Chelsea, if that is possible.

        martin colwell 17/01/18 11:13 PM Reply


        • Martin – that thing with Bet365 bets saying market suspended I think is a glitch with oddschecker. Happens all the time with me but if you go to my bookies, logout from Bet365 then login again it works.

          Ken McKenzie 18/01/18 7:27 AM Reply


          • OK thanks. All seemed fine this morning. I will check again this evening to see if it re occurs. I usually do look in Oddschecker but then go in via the actual bookmakers App.

            martin colwell 18/01/18 10:11 AM Reply


        • I would never go to bookies via the link on Odds-checker and unless I have a restricted account I never bet on a PC that I use Odds-checker on. 99% of my bets are done via my phone most via the browser and not the app.

          Nick Mazur 18/01/18 8:21 AM Reply


      • Boylesports restricted me after 4 winning bets over 3 weeks which garnered me about £220. This was just dumb luck as my bets on other accounts were getting beaten at the same time. Think I can get a 50p win on with them now if I wanted. If you read around they’re one of if not THE worst for this kind of thing. No interest in fair play at all.

        Steve Plant 18/01/18 7:33 AM Reply


  • Funny old day. Lingfield which has been pretty kind to me, deserted me today whilst Newcastle which has been a thorn in my flesh popped out two winners. Nothing massive but two 5/1 early/BOG winners gave us a 2pt profit on the day. Have I turned a corner with Newc?

    I’ve started recording BFEx prices, at the time I place my bets with the bookies for comparison so I’ll report results to that as well as BFSP, once I have a full week’s data.

    Another two AW meetings tomorrow at Southwell and Chelmsford. Qualifiers as follows:

    Southwell
    12.20 Outlaw Torn 12/1 & Rolling Dice 10/1 (nice RF?)
    12.50 Just Fred 12/1
    1.20 Naralsaif 14/1 (up against Gerry’s Big Amigo)
    1.50 Decision Maker 9/2
    3.30 Archie Stevens 13/2

    Chelmsford
    5.55 Haraz 14/1
    7.00 Headwear 5/1
    8.00 Volatile 4/1
    8.30 Pretty Bubbles 13/2
    9.00 Pour L’amour 9/2
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 17/01/18 8:42 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken,

      first of all, I’m sure I echo many others when I say thank you for taking time to collate and post your selections.

      Quick question do you also have a system for the dirt in the UAE, just thinking ahead with the Dubai carnival coming up?

      By the way I think ‘The Sandman’ has a nice ring about it!

      Salman Ali 17/01/18 9:26 PM Reply


      • No sorry Salman, I only do UK races. It’s difficult enough keeping on top of that while working full time so no plans to change I’m afraid.

        Ken McKenzie 18/01/18 7:32 AM Reply


        • No problem Ken, totally understand.

          Salman Ali 18/01/18 7:38 AM Reply


        • I think that the part answer to Meydan is to look for course form. I think that The royal family tend to have a number of runners in races and tend to run tactically, rather like the O’Brien team. Just my observations really.

          martin colwell 18/01/18 10:16 AM Reply


      • We call him that quite often when he goes in to many bunkers on the golf course.
        Mike

        mickeydee 18/01/18 9:51 AM Reply


        • I think bunkers have magnets in that attract golf balls. That is my experience anyway.

          martin colwell 18/01/18 10:14 AM Reply


        • mickeydee – you just get back to your sunshine and sangria and leave the racing to the adults lol 🙂

          Ken McKenzie 18/01/18 7:30 PM Reply


  • Maguires Glen Wincanton Thursday 13:40 1pt e/w-Just the one for me who looks to be one of the few who is proven in tomorrow’s conditions. 5 of the trainers last 9 runners have come 2nd so she must be due a winner soon. Has been running solidly all season.

    Nick Mazur 17/01/18 8:49 PM Reply


  • W 3.55 Commodore @12’s, only 365, plenty 10’s
    I’m intrigued with this one so my gut says bet.
    Nowt else for me.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 17/01/18 10:49 PM Reply


  • Somerset Nat preview/tips..
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/01/18/free-daily-post-18-01-18-tips/

    Josh 18/01/18 9:48 AM Reply


  • Big Amigo lost the race at the start but fortunately I took my own advice and backed Kodi Beach and Last Chance Paddy as well

    gearoid180468 18/01/18 2:07 PM Reply


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