Free Daily Post: 17/01/18 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/13,5p, +11.5)

3.00 Newbury – Millanisi Boy – 1 point win 8/1 (gen) 2nd 8/1*

Ah bugger..can’t complain with that, a brave second, only losing out late on..looked like he would go close the whole way round. Winner has run a good race, STD + CP making a difference, esp to his jumping I suspect. Had that in his locker, no shock, but preferred the more unexposed one. Another placed effort. Nearly. But not close enough. On we go 

 

This is probably one of those races that you shouldn’t play in,given it is packed with a fair few unexposed chasers and a few behind that who are not too long in the tooth and could be  given a squeak. However, when looking through this, I just thought the selection looked a shade overpriced. He arrives here in form having won well enough LTO in first time CP and this is only his fifth start over fences. He jumped very well the last day and races prominently. Ground conditions are fine and he stays. I also marked up his chance due to his course form – he has run well around here over fences and that is no bad thing. Maybe it will transpire that he isn’t good enough and they will go too quickly for him, but I am guessing a bit there. At 8/1 i’ll take a chance. The trainer has a solid enough record with LTO winners also, 4/20,11p the last 2 years. He should run his race.

Of the rest…well Indy Five hacked up and may do so again but that was a weak C4 novice handicap at Taunton. Up 12lb this is a bit different. He couldn’t have done any more the last day and may be up to it but i didn’t think the selection should be more than double the price. Kimberlite Candy took some stoking along LTO but is still open to improvement. He won’t get an easy lead here I don’t think and has to prove his stamina, which he may do. I didn’t think his price was overly generous. He won for my members’ Tom Lacey test angle LTO at 8/1, so I can live with him winning today at half those odds. Horatio Hornblower is interesting but is 10 now and can clout a fence.  STD and the cheekpieces may help on that front. They may not. No forlorn hope but I fancied the more unexposed profile of the selection, at similar odds. Private Malone is now 0/9 over fences but you could give a squeak I suppose. The yard is in form but he has to prove he truly stays in this ground for me, esp over fences. He hasn’t proved he won’t as such but he has questions now. 9s may be ok. I can’t get Two Smokin Barrels right and it would be just my luck that she wins this, but I have left her. A few questions now but she looks a dour stayer and if they all fall in a hole could pick up the pieces. I never really like backing LTO fallers but no forlorn hope.

So, it looks open enough, but i’m happy to take a stab at this one given his profile and the price.

Good luck whatever you play on, you can make a case for a few!

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Harry Fry Mares (any odds, 10/1< best)

3.30 Newb – Lady of Lamanver

Kerry Lee (12/1< shorter)

2.25 Newb – Tree of Liberty

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.25 Newb – Tree of Liberty (12/1<)

 

*

That’s the lot for today.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • Nb 1.20 Prairie Town @ 14 e/w
    Dropping in class and not run anywhere near it’s potential this season. T.Carrol been woeful too but had a winner t’other day so tide may have turned. Doitforthevillage is the obvious danger so a small rfc to compliment.

    Nb 3.30 All Currencies @ 33 e/w
    Got to worth a stab at them odds. Going up in distance might just allow it to get into a better midfield rhythm than chasing leaders and running out of gas.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 17/01/18 12:14 PM Reply


    • DOFF OF THE CAP TO YOU SIR AS WELL …. EXCEPTIONAL THOUGHTS AND TIPPING GUYS 🙂
      WELL IMPRESSED
      WILL PROBABLY COME ON OVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS 🙂

      BRIAN LE CRICK 17/01/18 3:39 PM Reply


    • Great call Mike.

      Neil 17/01/18 3:40 PM Reply


    • Blimey Mike, pulled out a monster, great tipping. Relished the step up in trip as you predicted, top work.

      Josh 17/01/18 3:45 PM Reply


      • Thanks guys, will be putting up regular til end of season. Haven’t done these type bets for a couple of years or so and did well with them but caused massed closure/restriction of my bookie a/c’s . Since being here I’ve changed the way I bet so hopefully these go under the radar now as I’ll not just be doing e/w. Odds will mean occasional long losing run so beware if you’re thinking of following.

        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 17/01/18 6:38 PM Reply


        • Cracking effort WELL DONE. I am very much in the mindset of looking for proven stamina, so your analysis that a horse of this type would benefit from going at slower pace over further is most interesting and a very interesting angle.

          With winners at that type of price and looking for value I’m sure most will appreciate they won’t drop every day, but a nice one occasionally and will be very lucrative. Put it like this and I think something a lot forget to take on board, if you backed at 33/1; that’s effectively 32 free bets, I’m sure that in 32 bets time you will have made a healthy profit from more winners/big priced placed horses.

          Good Luck

          Ian @ SP2A 17/01/18 6:48 PM Reply


    • Very well done Mike with All Currencies – great selection

      Andrew Gilmore 17/01/18 7:18 PM Reply


  • Cracking 16/1 winner I gather Josh for your members with What A Diva 2nd and running right up to expectations. I gather from our Twitter chat that your own unique system threw that up and that’s superb analysis WELL DONE.

    There was also some P2P for at 3 miles for the winner and 4th both unexposed, only the Good ground form would have put those following the P2P form off, but a great win for R2P Members and lets be honest; there is only one enemy and that’s the Bookmaker, so matters not who beats them as long as the majority benefit….lets collectively keep collecting! WELL DONE

    Ian@SP2A 17/01/18 1:26 PM Reply


    • cheers.. yep I think in general may have been best if the other way around haha, but you advised EW so no damage done.
      Yep more a ‘method’ of analysis than a system I suppose..albeit systematic enough in that method as discussed. I still think of it as in ‘test’ within members posts, but since I change my mindset at start of September, those tips now…
      178 bets / 32 wins / +125 point (1 point win bets)

      So, not doing too bad!

      It is a non form based approach where what they have done on paper doesn’t really come into it – the idea being that today’s conditions should see a dramatic improvement on what they have done to date, and as such could have a stack in hand. That is why I want a decent price, because I am wrong plenty of times, and it is educated guesswork.

      Sadly didn’t do the sodding forecast, 112/1. Damn. I’ll never learn with that bet. It’s come in a few times when I tip two, and/or between me and you at SP2A we have 3/4 fancies in a race.

      Josh

      Josh 17/01/18 1:32 PM Reply


      • Had the runner up and fourth in a f/cast perm, had long listed the winner but not in final 4 referred to in our tips mail so a near miss today but for £2 always worth a small punt IMHO and am increasingly convinced better ROI potential than accumulators….

        Ian@SP2A 17/01/18 1:36 PM Reply


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