Members Daily Post: 17/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Market Rasen

1.00-

Red Danaher (m1) 14 H3 8/1 UP

What A Diva (m1) 16/1 S2 2nd 6/1 (30p R4) 

Itsnonofurbusiness (m2) 14/1 S2 WON 16/1 

1.30 – Morianour (all hncps) I3 7/2 UP

3.10 –

Iskabeg Lane (m1) 14 H1 I1 G1 11/4 S4 3rd 13/8 (15p R4)

Cougar’s Gold (m1) 9/1 UP 6/1

 

Newbury 

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/13,8p, +13)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.00 MR

What A Diva – 16/1 (bet365/BF/SJ) 14/1 (gen) 2nd 6/1

Itsnonofurbusiness – 16/1 (bet365/BV) 14/1 (gen) WON 16/1 

 

Ah the 112/1 straight forecast, of course I didn’t do it!! 🙂 

 

3.10 MR

Cougars Gold – 9/1 (general) UP, poor.

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A ‘Seven Minute Snapshot’, a quick run through of the Notes horses above…

 

 

What A Diva – returns to ideal conditions/her time of year/back to last winning mark/needs soft/heavy (ground excuse LTO)/shot be spot on fitness wise/while not unexposed, she’s not had loads of racing/her price was just silly

Itsnonofurbusiness – my instinct says he may not be very good but he is unexposed and doing plenty different…handicap hurdle debut (this is one of Skelton’s target tracks for such types,but they usually are very well fancied/smashed in) / moves back up in trip by around 1 mile / runs on soft for first time- could be positive or negative, may relish it, may not / first time cheekpieces / Skelton 8/31,15p with handicap hurdlers here last 2 years, inc a 20/1 winner / 51 day break…that iffy period which suggests they may have done something or found a problem/freshened up/changed routine etc / Skelton doesn’t keep rubbish horses for long these days, must think has some ability of only moderate / at 16s I had ‘fear of missing out’ syndrome. I prefer the Bowen mare but at this price I had to roll the dice.

Clearly Red Danaher will now bolt up and I did put a saver on just in case… his age put me off but he is lightly enough raced for an 11 year old and comes here fit and inform. I’d like to think that younger legs will beat him but he could run a decent race. 8s was just about ok.

Cougars Gold – 9s seemed a shade overpriced for a ‘could be anything’ sort. This is the 4th handicap of his life, second start over fences. He won a C5 handicap hurdle in the summer, the front two miles clear. I like when trainers don’t keep chasers over hurdles for very long as it’s an indication that they like them for me, and want to get them fencing asap. This one returned after 130 odd days off LTO, in heavy. He travelled well in second, jumping fine, until 3/4 fences from home up the straight. He then stopped relatively quickly, suggesting he badly needed it and/or hated the ground also. Should strip fitter here, returns to better ground and he will show more over fences one day. Sean Bowen will have him in the perfect spot I suspect, just tracking the pace. Peter’s stats with this type are decent also… handicap chasers…those having their second run in a handicap chase, 8/1 or shorter SP… 13/63,23p, +18 (has had a few winners at bigger so odds not a concern), 2/5,3p in 2017. 7/28,11p, +23 in C4, 3/12,6p, +10 when running at the same distance as LTO. All in all, at 9s, i had to have a go. The S4 qualifier looks solid back down in class. He has been running well and won’t be far away. I won’t be putting you off him either, but he isn’t 9/1!

Good Luck

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A decent win in the end for the Tom Lacey beast, drifting out again to a much more palatable 15/2. Tom Scu rode him superbly (his only ride on the card, which I noted as the commentator said it!! That is something for me to add to the list of things to consider in passing, esp when an ‘odd’ booking.. I think those two may be 2/3 now when teaming up) and managed to settle him behind a tearaway leader. He had him in the perfect spot. A return to slightly better ground has helped and the fact he saved energy for the finish. It was a shocker of a race also. In fairness he kept responding for pressure and grinding away, running as if 3m would be within range in time. He jumped well also. You can tell how much energy a horse has left by their jumping and he pinged the last, which gave any backers some hope. Some young horses just take time to learn how to race.  (so, to hammer home in my own head… unexposed, better ground, weak race, up again in trip, jockey change..out 16 days later from PU suggesting nothing major, trainer still in form, jockeys only ride at track, just whether he would settle…) 

The Tom Lacey angle is now 7/30,13p, +27 since i researched it and started posting in the test zone. Given the logic behind it and the trainer’s approach, hopefully it keeps ticking along. All research is in the ‘research articles’ link in the Key above

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.40 MR – Belle Amis (m1 + m2) 9/2 3rd 

 

D Pipe PU (14/1< guide)

3.00 Newb- Saint John Henry 20/1 UP ‘DNQ’/ You Say What 16/1 UP

 

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield

12.40 – Rely On Me (m1) 14  ES H1 I3 G3 9/1  S2 S3 S4 S6 UP

3.20 – Pitch High (4yo+) ES 11/1  S3 UP

3.55 – Spryt (4yo+) I3 14/1 3rd 10/1

Newcastle

4.00-

Leodis (all hncps) 4/1 3rd 

Thankyou Very Much (all hnc + 4yo+) ES+ G3 8/1 S3A  2nd 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW! 

Weekly Article: The Week That Was #10 READ HERE>>>

The notebook horses previously discussed on video / a quick look at Nick Scholfield / Ben Poste / Katy Price (not Katie Price!!)

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • Flippin ‘eck. I had a look at RTP on the train to work this morning. A couple of comments. Tonight I look again on the train home and you lot have turned into bash the bookies haha! I’m surprised Josh’s website didn’t fall over! Lots of good comments though and some interesting stuff about exchanges. I might start to record exchange prices when I place my bets just for comparison.

    Anyway nothing to write home about for me tonight. No winners. Had to happen sometime. Been on a good run but plenty in the bank to fall back on. It is worth stating for those looking to start following my tips, you should have a good size bank to cope with the no. of tips I put up. If we get 2 or 3 days in a row with no winners it can deplete quite quickly. The worst run I’ve had is four consecutive meetings over two days. Hopefully not too many of those!

    AW meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle tomorrow. Trying a revised strategy for Newcastle. Not much difference, just a few tweaks. Qualifiers as follows:

    Lingfield
    1.10 Helvetian 5/1
    1.40 Yamuna River 9/1 & Urban Soul 11/2
    2.50 Marmion 11/1
    3.20 Soaring Spirits 4/1

    Newcastle
    4.00 Hallstat 13/2
    4.30 King Oswald 5/1
    5.00 New Empire 4/1
    6.00 Florencio 5/1 & Testa Rossa 4/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 16/01/18 9:33 PM Reply


    • On the all weather front, an update on the Irish runners on the sand in 2018, it is 2/17, -6. Both Joseph O’Brien winners.

      martin colwell 16/01/18 10:58 PM Reply


  • Percy Street Newbury Wednesday 13:20 2pt-Percy Street looks like a very good bet tomorrow. He has been running OK until what I think will work out as a very hot race LTO (runner up wasn’t far away in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle despite being rated over 20lbs lower off level weights). He drops down two grades here into a class 4 where he is 12 at this level over jumps. He has been dropped 5lbs and Bowen junior takes off a further 5lbs. Nicky is in smashing form and is 9/23, 13p +16 over hurdles at the track in the past 12 months. Him and Bowen are 5/9 career wise. He has won on the flat on heavy so I don’t think the ground will be a problem. Considering he was rated 98 on the flat I can see him hosing up here. The 6s have gone but still looks value at the price.

    Private Malone Newbury Wednesday 15:00 1pt e/w-I looked at the trends on this one and you want a horse which was aged 6 to 10, that finished in the top 5 LTO are had less than 13 career runs which left the front two in the market and this one (technically nothing has won this off a mark higher than 127 and 11st12lbs i’snt ideal in the ground so I do think its between the favourite and my one). The selection started off his chasing career beating the likes of Minella Rocco twice and racing against the likes of Blaklion and Vicente off level weights. Now obviously he has disappointed since but Emma Lavelle has had a couple of bad years before this season. The horse seemed to coming back into form this year running a subsequent winner close 2 starts ago before disappointing over a too short a trip LTO. I think the horses needs this sort of test given by the going stick reading it will be closer to heavy than soft. Emma is in smoking hot form. Horse should be able to race prominently. The only concern is the trainer’s form at the track recently but I think a lot of that is due to her poor form recently.

    Nick Mazur 16/01/18 10:08 PM Reply


    • I would agree that Percy Street should pick these up and carry them on some form. I could see him sluicing up but some of his runs have not inspired confidence of his love of the game. I guess the 5/1 makes him playable.
      In the 3.00 I remember Indy Five looking good LTO when winning. However 3 places available each way and the trainer is n form as you say.

      martin colwell 16/01/18 10:53 PM Reply



  • Market Rasen is on and the Nick Williams – Lizzie Kelly hurdles micro has 3 runners today; 1.00 One Of Us; 1.30 Cabernet DAlene; 2.40 Aimee De Sivola. Not great prices though.
    Frankie is at LP for two rides, 1.10 The Mums and 2.15 Toolatetodelegate. He must think he will have a winner or two or he would not venture out in the English winter.
    At Newbury, apart from Hendo sending a team of horses and doubling up in some races, Saint Calvados, 2.25, won well LTO and it is expected he will go onto better things and so has to take this.
    Indy Five sluiced up LTO and goes again in the 3.00.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 17/01/18 10:44 AM Reply


    • One Of Us a non runner and Aimee De Sivola in a NHF race, so only one qualifier, Cabernet D’Alene, if it runs!

      martin colwell 17/01/18 1:04 PM Reply


      • Well done Martin, he did that well, 5/1 not too bad given how he won/oppo. Sadly I didn’t have a penny on but hope you got stuck in!

        Josh 17/01/18 1:42 PM Reply


        • Yes follow this micro blindly and so 5/1 was nice without a sweat.

          Well done Josh with the 1-2 in the 1.00! Those unexposed horses lurk everywhere. Top analysing. Those Skelton horses continue to go off at prices. Clearly not yet in the Hendo/Nicholls league yet.

          martin colwell 17/01/18 2:01 PM Reply


          • Always surprises me.. they are clearly not much of a punting yard in terms of trainers/staff..as you’d expect odd bookie to have any accounts marked, certainly online. Maybe just depends on the owners and the right faces… had to take a chance at those odds..the feeling of watching those types romp home not having been tipped is unbearable! That performance no shock, you knew would show himself to be well handicapped one day..3m, CP, soft ground…has done the trick. Hacked up. only danger was the hurdles from about 3 out.

            Josh 17/01/18 2:05 PM Reply


  • 15.00 Newbury TWO SMOKIN BARRELS

    Although the horse fell last time out I think that he has ideal conditions today. Over fences his record in races worth less than 10k reads: 14111 and on tracks that are slightly undulating his record reads – 1111F. In December and January record reads: 111F.

    14.05 Market Rasen THREE MUSKETEERS

    The horse won this race last year and was only seen once over fences after. Record on soft ground : 1111. When racing at 2m5f to 2m6f: 111. All 4 of his wins have come in fields of 1 to 7 runners. When racing on tracks with slight undulations: 1111U1.

    David Peat 17/01/18 11:44 AM Reply


  • Terrific shout Josh…..Your the man lol

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 17/01/18 1:10 PM Reply


  • Great read Josh!

    dougandnicky 17/01/18 1:10 PM Reply


    • That was fun to watch gents, anyone do the forecast?? Always so obvious when the 112/1 SFC comes in. Ah bugger. Still, I won’t complain. A nice return on the race. Good for S2 as well as my own ‘tipping’. On we go. Hopefully the Bowen chaser can do the business.

      Josh 17/01/18 1:20 PM Reply


      • Was there a rule 4 deduction on early prices with the favourite coming out?

        martin colwell 17/01/18 2:05 PM Reply


        • odd… yep 30p R4.. but I think the winner drifted from the reformed price.. was 20s before withdrawal, went to 14s, drifted out to 16s.. Bet365 paid me out at 16/1, which is what I took this morning…intrigued to hear what others got with other bookies.. i’m not clued up on my R4s! I expected one, but there wasn’t .. I assume because of the drift from reformed price??

          Josh 17/01/18 2:08 PM Reply


          • BOG saves the day again. There would normally have been a 25-30% R4 but because of the drift anyone who backed it at a BOG bookie should be paid at 16/1. Shame I did mine on the exchange this morning!

            Neil 17/01/18 2:10 PM Reply


      • I did do the forecast fella yep. And on Skybet too (+10%)
        Thank you muchly!
        Doug

        dougandnicky 17/01/18 2:34 PM Reply


        • Blimey. That’s a solid return even for a small bet. Top work! Don’t spend it all at once 🙂
          Josh

          Josh 17/01/18 2:42 PM Reply


  • Great tipping Josh. I note you mentioned SP2A on Twitter who had the 2nd and an unplaced one in the race. I joined their trial after your recommendation. Big decision for me to be honest – paying for a service (even discounted) as I’m a low stakes better. Only a week so far following the staking advice but I am just about even (small loss). Seems a bit inconsistent- good day followed by bad day but early days I suppose. Maybe January is the worst time to judge – I take your word that previous results have been impressive. Also going to have to make a similar decision regarding your member service as my trial here is ending shortly. I follow your notes religiously (so today could sway me) but still can’t quite work out which other strategies etc to follow and how to use the test qualifiers – without ending up with too many daily bets. Keep dipping in and out which isn’t probably the best idea. Thank you for this trial – it was a very generous offer to taste the service

    Mike Crowther 17/01/18 5:48 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      No problem, well that is the point of a decent trial period so you can see for yourself.
      SP2A are the best tipping service I have come across in my time, certainly all round including daily tips etc. The first trial period we did Oct-Dec, with real people, made a mad amount of profit, whichever way you approached the bets. 212 point to advised stakes – at 2.5 or £5 per point not bad…if you’d have just bet 5EW on everything, if 5 was 1 point, you’d have won 350 odd points, over £1500 to £5 EW.
      They were due a bit of a dip and should only be judged over a lengthy period of time. They will have the odd losing month.

      In terms of what I do…well the whole approach is meant to make it accessible for small stakes punters – many on here bet £2.50s / 5s and i’d like to think enjoy the all round experience, inc treating parts of it a bit like a magazine subscription I suppose. But results matter at the end of the day. I’ll be disappointed in myself if I don’t make at least +100 points a year in the Notes, which to £2.50 win bets isn’t a bad amount, pays for subs and leaves a bit left over. The overall base stats have had a bit of a torrid time, incl many of the strategies.
      I have said before but I have most confidence in S1 + S4 and I think they should be a starting point. No too many bets but a range of prices, and gives you time to think and ponder everything else.

      Anyway, I’m sure you’ll come to a decision that suits you, my aim is to try and add something to your enjoyment of the sport for however long you are a member.
      Best
      Josh

      Josh 17/01/18 5:59 PM Reply


  • Hi
    Just thought I would say to Mike that remaining with Racing to Profit will do him no harm. I appreciate he is only a small stakes punter but I haven’t had any regrets since I joined and I’m sure many others will say the same. There are different angles & areas which you can profit from including tips, notes and strategies and decent selections from members – lots of them are profitable if you remember to stay with them. Its often when there is a losing run that your resolve is tested but thats why it is always recommended to have a reasonable bank – profit cannot ever be guaranteed but even small stakes betting can cover subs and ensure there is an interest nearly every day with a bit of fun.

    Just thought I would offer a perspective from a fellow member.

    Regards
    Andy

    Andrew Gilmore 17/01/18 7:12 PM Reply


    • Thanks Andy, much appreciated.
      Josh

      Josh 17/01/18 7:35 PM Reply


  • I would echo Andy’s comments,as regards SP2A I joined recently too and so far its performing quite well considering the number of abandoned meetings and January is a difficult time anyway.Start small and build over time as with all things betting.
    I think most members have one thing in common,failure.My personal failure was the inability to look beyond the obvious when looking at a race.I was finding winners but not long term profitability.I would fear a short priced horse and not see it as an opportunity.Josh once said RTP was a journey and not a destination.
    The hardest thing is to find your own path.There is a lot of information strategies and worthwhile comments from members,but you cannot follow everything,even Josh can’t follow all his research findings.
    My advice would be to stay on the journey,maybe just stick with Josh’s notes which have been very successfull since inception

    gearoid180468 17/01/18 8:03 PM Reply


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