Members Daily Post: 15/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ayr

1.45 –

Baby Ticker (all hncps + hncp h+m1) I3 G3 11/2  WON 6/1 

Presenting Rose (m1+m2) ES+ 15/2 S3A  UP

2.15 – Another Mattie (m1) ES+G3 16/1 S1 S2 S3A UP

2.50 – Buffalo Ballet (nov hncp) H1 I3 G1 4/1  S4 2nd  10/3 

3.25 –

Surprise Vendor (all hncps + m1 + m1) I1 12/1 S2 S5 UP

McGinty’s Dream (m1 +m2) ES+ 4/1 S3A UP

Sky Full Of Stars (m1) H1 G3 9/4 UP

3.55 – Tomahawk Wood (all hncps +hncp h + m1) H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 3rd 3/1

 

Plumpton

 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

 

*

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 1/10,6p, -1)  (1 point win bets)

No notes horses/tips today.

Not to curse the poor sod but Tomahawk Wood looks very very solid to my eyes, and baring an accident I’d be disappointed if he didn’t destroy this lot and provide S4 backers with a decent enough start to the week. I thought 3/1, 11/4 was just fair enough and he could go off at 2s<. Any geegeez instant expert users will see him leap off the page. This looks like a plot/plan, given the horse won the race last year off the same mark. In two runs this year his mark has come down 5lb. He ran well the last day in a C2 over a trip too short. He steps back up in distance and down to this C5. Having looked through the rest I can’t really see what beats him. The Hammond horse would be a danger if he stayed, but that is a big question. The Russell horse has shown very little and needs the visor to work. The rest have major questions. S4 qualifiers are the only ones I consider at this end of the market and having pondered I think he looks solid. I’ve had a good go at him as I still think he could be a shade overpriced. The only niggle is the actual weight on his back, and whether he can carry it. That is a minor concern and he hasn’t proved he can’t in ideal conditions. I think you will find much worse 11/4 shots than this to back. So, that’s him done for!! 🙂 The ‘top of the market eyes’ still need work, well, as do my general jumps ‘notes’ eyes in truth. I’ll get there.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.05 Plump – Morney Wing

 

TTP All-Weather

None.

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated asap

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 8th Jan 2018 – 14th Jan

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 4/48,22p, +14
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 2/32, -4
  • S1 (1/8,6p, +9) S2 (2/18,7p, +10) S3 (1/7,2p, +10) S3A (0/6,3p, -6) S4 (0/5,3p, -5) S5 (0/4,1p, -4)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/9,5p, -9

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 2/13,4p, +7

*

Thoughts… well a good end to the week with a 16/1 winner for a few strategies, most notably for me S1, which out of all the bigger priced strategies (well, all bar S4) I have the most confidence in on evidence to date/the logic behind it. Hopefully they can repeat 2017s numbers but proof will be in the eating. Coincidentally that 16/1 winner was another older horse wearing first time blinkers. They seemed to do the trick. Elsewhere there were many many placed horses again, plenty going close… 2 of the S4 seconds were neck defeats, painful. And a few biggies came second again. We need a few more of those to start winning but the consistency is more positive than negative. So I keep telling myself!

My ‘Notes’ had a frustrating time, the woodwork rattled plenty. Work to do still on my approach to the jumpers. Yet to hit the heady heights of the flat ‘notes’ horses. The ‘test zone’ jumps angles had another good week, another +7 to the pot after +11 last week. Another decent source of ‘starting points’ for bets, if nothing else.

On we go.

Josh

 

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Justification Plumpton Monday 14:30 1pt e/w-Drops down to class 4 for the first time since his last win and steps up to 3m which going by his breeding and the fact he was running 2m on the flat should suit. He is only 2lbs above his last winning mark. The trainer and jockey are 5/17, 11p +15 in handicap hurdles in the past 2 years.

    Nick Mazur 14/01/18 9:01 PM Reply


  • Another nice finish to today’s AW racing with Shearian coming home at 14/1 BOG giving us 10pts profit on the day.

    Weekly and to date results below:
    w/c 8 Jan – Staked 61pts, Profit 49pts, ROI 80.33% or £245 to £5 stakes (early/BOG)
    BFSP Profit 24.54pts, ROI 40.23% or £122.70 to £5 stakes

    Total to date: Staked 276pts, Profit 104.05pts, ROI 37.07% or £520.26 to £5 stakes (early/BOG)
    BFSP Profit 45.11pts, ROI 16.34% or £225.55 to £5 stakes.
    BFSP profit includes deduction of 5% commission. This varies but is worst case scenario.

    The eagle-eyed out there may also have noticed the tallies don’t quite add up from all the weekly totals. This is because I made a cock-up in the results for w/c 1 Jan which should’ve been:
    Staked 60pts, Profit 22.53pts, ROI 37.54% or £112.63 which is slightly better than I previously reported.

    This is because I copy from a bigger table then trim it down for RTP tips. On one day I forgot to trim it down. Apologies for the error but I’m just trying to be open and honest. All other results are the same.

    AW action from Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    4.35 Lady Sophiebella 9/1
    5.10 Letmestopyouthere 5/1 & Outer Space 6/1
    5.40 Hidden Steps 5/1
    6.10 Elite Treaty 11/1
    6.40 Watersmeet 11/2
    7.40 Mighty Zip 12/1 & Kyllukey 8/1
    1pt win each.

    Good luck

    Ken McKenzie 14/01/18 9:22 PM Reply


    • Great results Ken. May your success continue.

      Nigel Barnes 15/01/18 9:07 AM Reply


    • Super job Ken. You are posting for free so I don’t think we really have the right to get too pedantic about how you record x/y/z, or what approach you take really. If people wish to follow them all they should be keeping basic results themselves, esp if missing your advised prices and/or taking BFSP etc.
      An ROI of 16% to BFSP is bloody good, and if that repeated for ever more, would be decent.
      Keep it up, and i’ll stop asking for your secret 🙂
      Josh
      p.s any hints as to the logic?? ratings based, trainer based, official ratings based, CD, sire ?? 🙂

      Josh 15/01/18 9:22 AM Reply


    • quite simply, sensational figures Ken, very well done, and lovely of you to post.

      Paul 15/01/18 9:44 AM Reply


    • Top job Ken 16% to BFSP is a superb start.

      I’ve put a small test bank together to start today, so hopefully I don’t put the mokers on it 🙂

      I also second Josh P.s 😉

      Gav

      Gavin 15/01/18 1:25 PM Reply


    • Great again Ken, please don`t start charging for yer tips…haha. You`ll make a fortune. Don`t really like the All weather, but, you have stirred my interest in it!!
      Long live the King of All weather tipping.

      Stewart 15/01/18 6:54 PM Reply


  • RTP old favourite Morney Wing is out tomorrow in the 3.05 at Plumpton. Paddy is back on, for his only ride of the day, having won on him at Plumpton in Jan last year (think Josh tipped him up). Paddy is 1/1 on him and MW is 1/1 at Plumpton. 9lbs below its last winning mark which was the same race. Up against a weaker set of horses ratings wise tomorrow and a smaller field so looks to have a good chance. The early 7/1 has evaporated and is 5/1 generally now.

    JamesP 14/01/18 9:55 PM Reply


    • GL James, I have missed the 5s which was worth a go I think. He was indeed a winner on here at 12s last Jan, I don’t back too many so you tend to remember them haha. Yep I think the gas just emptied the last day.. 11-12 in heavy, on the back of a hard race at Haydock, and he ran well for a way. Headgear swaps again, Paddy on, ‘only’ soft, he’ll race prominently, well handicapped. Should give you a cracking run for your money, provided he is now over LTO also. Could just be as simple as going for one in form, the Case horse would be top of that list for me. Market all a bit tight now, you’ve definitely picked what was the overpriced one I think.

      Josh 15/01/18 9:17 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I ask this question with some trepidation as always in case you have already covered it and I have just been slack at picking it up (and is it even practical?) but have you done any analysis on results where the strategies are multipled up on a particular horse (example today being Another Mattie). I guess the question is does having more “S’s” make a horse more likely to win? Just looking at angles and apologies if it has been covered already.

    Thanks

    Ben

    921389 15/01/18 11:02 AM Reply


    • Hi Ben,
      No question should be asked with trepidation in these parts!
      In short, no I haven’t. But I could/should.
      I have to think of the logic, as for say an odds based strategy (well S2), there is no logical reason why that being present alongside another S should improve results. (if it has a G or I next to name it’s highly likely to be an S1 or S5 anyway)

      The two I want to look at… is the S3 and S3A… as they, and in particular S3A, are meant to be the ‘best of’ the trainer stats angles from the TTP report..based on the winners/%/profit etc…although whether or not some of those were just too arbitrary awaits to be seen..S3 could just be rubbish. But S3A was more robust on the stats front…10+ winners, 25%+ win SR, 50% win/place

      There ‘could be’ something in S3 / S3A with a ratings pointer… or looking at S1 + S5 when the horse is S3 or S3A also. Or indeed when S2 or S4!

      I think that could be a good starting point for such ideas, starting with S3 and S3A, as that would make logical sense. The results for S1+S5 combined are small numbers, but they are in the advised strategies link in key, appendix 2 I think. They were 1/14,4p, +12, from 1st Sept-31st Dec.

      Always something to ponder, which I will do, when I’ve got through those items at the top of my to-do list!
      Josh

      Josh 15/01/18 11:24 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh

        921389 15/01/18 9:08 PM Reply


  • Good morning Josh. I would like to thank you for persuading me to join SP2A. Very impressive.
    My problem now is finding the time to go through RTP and all the excellent bloggers, SP2A,and Matt
    with geegeez gold on a daily basis. I will have to get up even earlier !!

    Thanks again
    Charles.

    jc3152 15/01/18 11:07 AM Reply


    • Morning Charles,
      No problem. Yep if you’re going to add one outright ‘tipping service’ to your portfolio/approach, i have yet to see better…all round, inc results to SP, quality of logic/write ups, customer service, etc etc etc.
      Well it sounds like you have a decent portfolio there, but as you say just a case of finding time to get the best out of everything!
      As with us here…well part of the idea of the advised strategies is to save time, and provide an option to just back blind. As I have touched on before/in welcome notes etc, S1 + S4 would be my starting point for such an approach. So, I suppose it is working out IF there is any of the content in here you wish to approach in such a way. But it sounds like you do enjoy wading through everything and working out what to attack, including in the comments.
      One option could be to use the daily members content + comments, as your basis of horses with which to then use the excellent Geegeez Gold to home in on what you wish. Although of course within geegeez reports etc there are many decent starting points there!
      The key is not to get overwhelmed and find a way that ensures you enjoy however you approach the game and use that excellent collection of resources! Less can be more.
      Maybe it is just a case of setting the alarm earlier 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 15/01/18 11:32 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh,

        Many thanks for recommending SP2A as well. I have a few tipsters that I follow, and have done so for a few years now – EVS, Bet Alchemist as well as being a long term member of the Bettingschool so I was a bit reluctant to add another…but I am glad I did!

        The write ups are excellent and informative, customer service is great and the results so far have been impressive, although I ballsed up the Tricast yesterday…omitting the 2nd placed horse by adding in the 100/1 selection (which finished a creditable 6th!). Let’s hope it continues.

        It feels like we are turning a corner with the S’s systems. I keep an eye on the trialling selections at the bopttom of your posts and notice that there was a big priced winner yesterday in Sherian at 14s I think (I luckily got 26 on BF!). It was a selection from the Bettingschool’s Southwell Snippets and I also notice that Ken posted it – so I hope a few of your readers were on.

        Keep up the good work.

        Eamon

        Eamon Roberts 15/01/18 1:09 PM Reply


        • Hi Eamon,
          No problem. Sounds like you have a solid portfolio also!
          Yep, we did have a really hot spell at the back end of the summer, 6 weeks or so, certainly with S2 over jumps, where there were many biggies going in. In part a natural correction but it has been a bit torrid.
          S1’s losing runs are never too stressful but a much needed winner yesterday, for morale is nothing else.
          I am disappointed with S3 so far and I clearly did get too excited too soon with that. We shall see if it turns around. I would be annoyed if S3A doesn’t do ok over time as the logic for that makes sense etc.
          The AW stats… Sherian… that sounds like a good use of the info available to you in deciding to back him. Top work.
          We will keep plugging away.
          Cheers, Josh

          Josh 15/01/18 1:57 PM Reply


  • One at a price on a rainy Monday – 4.10 PL Argyle, 10LB claimer takes some weight off. Gary Moore does like to get a win out of every horse he has. Not a great race and 16/1 available.

    martin colwell 15/01/18 11:09 AM Reply


  • 3.25 Ayr
    Trust Thomas 7/1
    Surprise Vendor 12/1

    Sporting Life
    TRUST THOMAS tends to go well around here and although he needs to bounce back from a poor run last time out he is still well handicapped if a return to his favourite course sparks him back to life…and he’s actually slipped 2lb below his last winning mark here (112). Took advantage of a drop in the weights to score at Musselburgh in November (found plenty for pressure).

    I’ll be having 1pt on him.

    The one that I quite like the look of is course specialist Surprise Vendor 12/1 who’s record around here is 1 1 1! Admittedly they were hurdle races but he has won a Chase at Hexham on heavy ground. He gets that again today and although he has jumping questions, if he put that right I think the 12/1 about him is too big.

    I’ll be having 1/2pt win/place on him (currently 16/5.4 on BF).

    Eamon Roberts 15/01/18 3:21 PM Reply


Post A Reply