Members Daily Post: 14/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

1.40 –

Jassas (all hncps + hncp h) ES 20/1 S2 S3 UP 16/1

Charmant (all hncps + hncp h) ES H3 G1 10/3 S3 UP

Imada (all hncps) 30 ES+ 15/2 S3A  UP

2.15 –

Takingrisks (all hncps + hncp c) 30ES+ I3 7/2 S3A UP

Un Guet Apens (all hncps) ES G3 12/1 S1 S2 S3   WON 12/1>16/1 

2.45 –

Ange Des Malbereaux (all hncps + hncp h + m1)  H3 7/1  UP

Topham Bay (m1+m1) 14 10/1 S2 UP 6/1

3.15 –

Chidswell (all hncps + hncp c) ES+ H3 I1 G1 4/1 S3A S4  2nd (neck)

Bernardelli (all hncps + hncp c) ES+ I3 9/1 S3A UP

Ueueteotl (all hncps) ES G3 14/1 S1 S2 S3  3rd 8/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 1/8,6p, +1)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.40 Kelso – Jassas – 20/1  UP 16/1 

2.45 Kelso – Topham Bay – 10/1 UP 6/1 

 

Jassas – the first of two pokes here where anything could happen but as always the odds have lured me in, as they should have done with a certain staying chaser yesterday! This one is just very lightly raced, having his third start in the UK, and ‘could be anything’. He won a C4 novice hurdle two starts ago over this distance before running a few weeks later over 19f. He travelled well in that Doncaster race but didn’t pick up. He emptied out a bit and I’m not sure he stayed. Or that run came too soon after his last, that run being his first in five months or so. Ground is a bit of an unknown but the booking of Hughes caught the eye. This doesn’t look a strong class 2. Maybe he won’t be anywhere near good enough. But he is having his second start in a handicap here and drops back in trip, with a jockey change. His stablemate may well take this, maybe the Richards horse but 7s just a bit too short given his questions, inc class but more pertinently fitness. But he could be anything also. An interesting little contest.

Topham Bay – hmm, that was strange…jockey pushing from near the off, never picked up the stick, horse ran on for 5th. 3m+, + headgear! Will sluice up one day no doubt, that cliff edge nears. A 10/1 winner for SP2A followers at leastbased on her runs at Kelso a couple of starts ago I have longed to see this one over 3 miles+. Given she steps up in trip here I wanted to have a dart. I suspect it will be nowhere near the bulls-eye but she is unexposed in handicaps and doing something different. There is a chance that Hexham heavy didn’t suit the last day and/or she hated the CP. It was a poor run. The days off suggests there may have been an issue/they have tinkered with something. And the market can be deceptive with this yard so I won’t mind too much if she drifts a couple of points. If she goes 16s+ i won’t hold out much hope. Soft should be fine. She may not stay, but shapes as if she should. She could just be moderate. But this looks an open race with not many proven over the trip etc. Russell is also ‘in form’ which was another tick. Time will tell.

Two pokes, but that’s the more cavalier approach to bigger priced horses I took on the Flat when I changed my mindset to ‘notes’ rather than agonising over finding one horse to tip. And the day after making a howler this is how I usually react, not that it’s a positive, but i suppose I am re-setting the mind again after destroying yet another cushion (it really is very sad but the most angry I get in this game, with myself, is after watching horses like Milansbar romp home). Over-thinking is a killer, I haven’t done that today.

On we go. GL with any bets.

Josh

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

1.00 Fair – One First Cut (25/1<) UP 6/1

D McCain (14/1<)

1.40 Kel – Chti Balko (m2/m3) UP

 

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

2.55 – Epitaph (m1) ES+ H3 G3 15/2 S3A S5

3.55 – Shearian (m1) I3 14/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Chase Jockeys

Of some interest.. Luck On Sunday is fast becoming my favourite show of the week as there is plenty packed in that makes you ponder about the great game. This week there was another interesting snippet from James Willoughby. When first watching him on RUK drone on about sectionals etc I found it a bit tiresome. But, he has grown on me, as has his approach. In general it is too technical for me but it is always interesting/informative. He has a weekly slot on this show where he phones in to give some statistical weight to an issue of interest. Today it was the turn of chase jockeys – who was best over fences in the UK/Ireland. This table looked at who was riding more winners than the market suggested they should be. It made for fascinating reading and was a feather in the cap of the Paddy Brennan fan club (of which Gerry and I are joint chairmen! :)).

In descending order, the ‘best’ (most underrated according to the market) first, the Top 10…

  1. Sean Bown (ridden 22 more winners over fences than he should have done based on their odds)
  2. Paddy Brennan
  3. Jamie Moore
  4. Noel Fehily
  5. Robbie Power
  6. Danny Cook
  7. Luke Dempsey
  8. Joe Colliver
  9. Harry Skelton
  10. Daryl Jacob (who has ridden 8 more winners than he should have, this is from 400+ chase rides in the sample, still good)

 

Plenty there to ponder, and a few jockeys that I should dig into a bit deeper at some point. Willoughby made the point that you do need the horses of course but these 10 are standout. Given plenty of those are aggressive on chasers, often front running, i’m not surprised by many on that list. Worth absorbing.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • A decent return today. 7.5pts to advised odds wiping out the losses of the last 2 days. AW meeting at Southwell tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    1.20 Still Got It 12/1 & Istanbul Pasha 4/1
    1.55 Blacklooks 7/1
    3.25 Joey’s Destiny 5/1
    3.55 Break the Silence 9/1 & Shearian 9/1
    1pt Win each.
    Some of the odds may have changed a bit since I got them but Josh’s page wasn’t up at the time.

    Good Luck.

    Ken McKenzie 13/01/18 10:21 PM Reply


    • Well done Ken. Keep up the good work. King of the Sand.

      Josh 13/01/18 10:23 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. I’m as surprised as anyone by how well it us going. Hope it continues.

        Ken McKenzie 13/01/18 11:03 PM Reply


        • Wow , just wow Ken, brilliant, just had a 16/1 winner and 8/1 3rd backed both each way, thank you for your tips….brilliant!!

          Stewart 14/01/18 4:00 PM Reply


    • Yes well done Ken, I am following with a keen eye. Are you also recording your results to BFSP?

      Gavin 14/01/18 10:13 AM Reply


      • I’m pretty sure Ken said last week that there didn’t seem much point recording to BSP based on the couple of days he did so

        Neil 14/01/18 4:16 PM Reply


        • Hi Neil. I stopped recording to SP as it was miles behind early/BOG but I have now recorded to Betfair SP and will post tonight if I get it all sorted in time.

          Ken McKenzie 14/01/18 4:22 PM Reply


    • A great day for me yesterday Ken. Busy in morning so put the Wolves bets on much later.
      In the 9.15 could only get 7/2 for both selections so I had a 1 pt RF on them instead of backing both to win. CSF paid out 17.47 so over 15 pts profit on that race alone. Absolutely brilliant mate, I’ll raise a glass to you in the Italian tonight (paid for by William Hill)
      Thanks again.
      Mike

      Mike Webster 14/01/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • I’ll second that Josh.Well done Ken,amazing results.
    Andy

    Andy Ness 14/01/18 8:11 AM Reply


    • Thanks folks. Glad you all had a piece.

      Gavin – I now have results to BFSP. Just need to do a bit of tidying up and hope to include them in the weekly results later tonight.

      Ken McKenzie 14/01/18 4:12 PM Reply


      • Nice one Ken 🙂

        I have to say that you have got me very intrigued with your system/approach to the all-weather.

        Gavin 14/01/18 8:42 PM Reply


  • May I put my name in the hat for the Sean Bowen fan club chairman. I never got around to doing write ups for my woeful picks yesterday but I was going to say but over the last few months I have been really impressed with him in a number of long distance chases and he just seems to be in the right place at the right time. For my own tips I don’t ever back anything blindly but I was certainly planning on keeping a closer eye at his rides going forward even before this post so it doesn’t surprise me.

    Nick Mazur 14/01/18 10:34 AM Reply


    • i don’t know what they are getting fed but the Bowen boys are riding fantastically well.

      Paul 14/01/18 12:16 PM Reply


      • ha, fed very well by their parents I think. They both come across very well, very grounded and seem all round nice people. They have had a riding education since they could walk i think – their riding on the pony circuit + sibling rivalry from young – is what has shaped them I think, and put them ahead of others. All round a perfect schooling ground it seems. Young James is strong in finish for 16 year old. Like his brother he rarely has them in the wrong spot. You’d be shocked if one/both were not fighting out for Champ jockey honours once Dickie retires.

        Josh 14/01/18 12:20 PM Reply


        • Josh you cover the Bowen’s background very well but it is no different from most of the jockey’s most are on the ponies from two to three years of age and most top jockey’s have a trainer family background not many come to the top without this one of the last ones was Steve Smith Eccles who had been working down a Derbyshire pit with the pit ponies before going to Newmarket if i recall about 16 years of age,he used to knock about with John Francombe who came into racing by the show jumping circuit and John was known for his stylish riding because of his background.
          Dai Williams daughters were on the ponies at two and Zoe tried her hand at show jumping taking after her mother,she is now working for Philip Hobbs last i heard from her dad.

          colin leafe 14/01/18 1:08 PM Reply


          • yep good points. I could be wrong but believe the pony scene is more competitive in recent years? or taken more seriously/deeper competition? young jack Kennedy was prolific in that sphere also, back in Ireland. In any case I head that as a musing for why some younger jockeys, like james/jack, are further ahead in their careers than they may have been a few years back, for their age. I suspect it is very hard if you are late to horses/from the outside. Ie no farming/point to point/pony/family history. Certainly is a sport where experience makes all the difference and the younger you can start to work with horses the better.
            Josh

            Josh 14/01/18 1:13 PM Reply


            • Josh agree the pony scene is a lot more competitive today for the rewards if you make it to the top are far greater than Smith Eccles and Biddlecombe’s day where some jockey’s had to be helped into the plate for they could hardly walk after the night before at the pub,today they are a lot fitter such as golfers who now go to the gym and have muscles on muscles and hit the ball far greater lengths than ever before.
              Racing as always found talent Lester Piggott rode his first winner at 12 years of age,again from a racing family what made him streets ahead of others,willing to take a risk his computer brain having done research on the other runners in the race expecting the one in front to tire and come off the rails for his mount to squeeze through the smallest of gaps and win by a short head they were the days.
              For me Ryan Moore is streets ahead of all British jockey’s at this time Aiden O’Brian thinks so that why he employs him to hold his nerve and win the big races where millions are paid for breeding of the winner.
              Learning the game at a young age is an advantage as is balance and nerves of steel for the horse will pick up any negative vibes through your legs and wonder what you want it to do,they also smell your fear,they are a most intelligent kind loving animal you could ask for and they will look out for you if they can take a race where there is a faller in a competitive race the horse will take evasive action not to stand on the jockey all in a split second

              colin leafe 14/01/18 2:17 PM Reply


  • Is it a statistical anomaly that eight of the list are UK based and only two over the water?
    Whereas the list is equally divided between Irish born and British born?

    chrisrees 14/01/18 12:07 PM Reply


    • yep, an anomaly/coincidence. He has simply looked at the numbers – rides over fences / wins / expected wins on price / wins above expectations. Those are the jockeys that come out on top from the total pool across both sides of Irish Sea.

      Josh 14/01/18 12:13 PM Reply


  • FTS has gone for another of yours today Josh. Taking Risks (2.15) Too short for me but interesting never the less.

    Tim

    Tim 14/01/18 2:11 PM Reply


    • Yep he seemed around the right price/short enough to my eye, fingers crossed he can give any backers a good run.

      Josh 14/01/18 2:14 PM Reply


      • (or the biggie can win, always best! 🙂 ) A trust the stats horse there.. those bloody blinkers again!

        Josh 14/01/18 2:21 PM Reply


        • Is too bad he didn’t go for the ‘biggie’. Friendless in the market and 19.1 BFSP. Oh well…. what do trainers know anyway?

          Tim 14/01/18 2:48 PM Reply


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