Free Daily Post: 13/01/17 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/12,4p, +12.5)

3.35 Warwick

On The Road – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) PU

Good To Know – 1 point win – 14/1 (Lad/Coral/BV) 12/1 (gen) PU

Bollocks.  

 

 

Shortlist: On The Road / Good To Know / Missed Approach / Cresswell Breeze

 

On The Road.. I tipped him last week and similar logic applies. I saw no reason not to have another go, at the odds. He travelled and jumped well for the first three fences LTO before he came to grief…i think he was unsighted but he jumped the fence fine, and may have jumped into the back of one He lost his back end on landing. It was very soft but at least didn’t have a hard race. Unexposed, ‘could be anything’ in handicap chases still, and over marathon trips. He may not stay but that’s why I wanted a price. He could improve for it. Wedge returns which is a positive given his record on the horse. I just hope he gets round so we can see whether he stays or not. Inexperience may cost him but he had a more interesting profile than most in here. I’d be sick if he walloped this lot and I wasn’t on.

Good To Know.. a repeat of his second in this last year would be good enough to be bang there. There is no One For Arthur in this and he stayed on well enough. He will race prominently and be in the right spot. He has track form. He has won after a PU before and given he unseated on his first run of the season, I suspect he needed it, given the way he faded. That or there is an underlying issue. I also went through his profile and found that on the third run of the season, since 2012 he is … Won / 2nd / 2nd / Won (after a PU run before) / 2nd (in this race last year)… that was enough for me to tip him, and was the deciding factor I think. Kerry is in form and I expect a bold show, if he is a1. I’d like him to be sent off at 12s< to boost confidence but the odd one of hers runs a monster race when unfancied and I wont let that put me off.

Of the rest… I won’t put you off Missed Approach if you like the odds. I thought he was short enough/about right/no value. That last run may well be the best piece of recent form in this. That race is always one of the deepest/most competitive/most ferociously run handicap chase of the season. He was bang there approaching 3 out before two G1 horses swooped past. He also didn’t benefit from the standing start and I expect him to be bang up the front today. His best recent runs have come in first time cheekpieces and first time blnkers LTO. There is a chance a return to CP doesn’t have the magic effect again. That’s not a problem if he is 8s/10s+, but he isn’t. He has 11-12 on his back and has to prove he will see this trip out in testing conditions. I can live with him winning at those odds. I won’t fall of my seat in shock, he is the right fav I think.

Cresswell Breeze..we she travels well, jumps well, does stay I think (whether she will in this class is the question, but it is a weak G3) and the ground shouldn’t be a problem. In the end I have gone with two at bigger odds from my shortlist. I wondered if the handicapper may have her, if she may be out-stayed by something, or if she will be good enough. A repeat of that last run may be good enough, but I doubted whether it would be. She’s entitled to take her chance and another that I won’t put you off if you like her chance. I was a bit on the fence.

I should mention Milansbar  (WON, pass me the Opus Dei kit) who I tipped LTO and he ran a shocker. He was taken off his feet from the off, sulked a bit, didn’t take to the cheekpieces and the jockey never stopped pushing. He needs the blinkers to work and Bryony to work her magic. That she may do, but I had my doubts. I also think this may not be testing enough and he could get taken off his feet again here. He is a slow old boat and in the end I have left him. It would be a sickener if dourly stayed on and beat this lot. Gulp. Surely he wont!

I wasn’t keen to be with any others at the prices, for one reason or another.

VIDEO PREVIEW:

I wanted it to be under 10 minutes and failed spectacularly again! It’s 30 mins, but packed with some useful snippets. Some of you may enjoy it! 🙂 

 

 

GL whatever you play on.

Josh

 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live test

3.25 Weth – Special Wells (12/1<)

2.40 Kemp – I Shot The Sheriff (12/1< guide)

3.35 Warw – Good To Know (12/1<)

 

G McPherson (any odds)

2.15 Weth – kayf Blanco

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h

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • Morning Josh see you and sp2a both give Goodtoknow a mention in 3.35 just had a little ew bet best of luck Stephen

    stephen 13/01/18 9:00 AM Reply


    • Hi Stephen, just had a read of the SP2A email (always make sure i come to my own conclusions first) and so they have! Poor sod, an extra stone. Although in fairness we have a decent enough record when we agree, from a very small sample! We have different views to attacking the game. Def worth an EW tickle, sadly i’m more foolhardy haha. GL

      Josh 13/01/18 9:13 AM Reply


  • Classic Chase Warwick
    15/15 male

    15/15 7 to 12 y olds ..11/15 8 to 10 y olds neg for Milansbar/Emperors/Russe/Ballycross

    14/15 10st – 11-7st neg for Crosspark/Creswell/Cogry/Goodtoknow/Sir mangan/Missed app

    15/15 had ţop 3 finish in least one of last 3 runs… neg for goodtoknow/Russe

    14/15 btwn 8-24 career runs ..neg Cogry/goodtoknow/emperors/Russe

    15/15 had btwn 1-6 career runs ..neg Cogry/emperors/on the road

    Kerry Lee 1/4 pos for krackatoa/russe/goodtoknow

    Twiston Davis 1/17 pos for Ballycross/Cogry

    15/15 ran btwn 3m and 4m1f LTO .. 11/15 ran btwn 3m and 3m21/2f LTO pos for missed/sir mangan/goodto/cogry/ballycross/krackatoa/Indian

    14/15 LTO btwn 6-60 days 12/15 LTO btwn 11-45 days pos for Russe/krackatoa/topper/ballycross/cross/creswell/cogry/goodto/missed

    Extra

    Topper 0/6 left handed 0/8 slight undulating

    Milansbar 0/12 left hand chases 0/6 slighht un

    Ballycross 0/8 left hand chases

    Cogry 0/8 graded chases

    Goodtoknow should run a good race having finished second to the national winner One for Arthur on this race last year.
    Kerry Lee’s Krackatoa king it’s my main pick who ticks all the box’s near the foot of the hcap and has the assistant of valuable 5lb claimer Richard Patrick.

    Goodtoknow ew

    Krackatoa king ew

    Robert bland 13/01/18 9:37 AM Reply


    • Glad we agree on those choise’s Robert….BOL.

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 13/01/18 11:25 AM Reply


    • Top work Robert, GL!

      Josh 13/01/18 11:39 AM Reply


    • No good..
      Milansbar 0/12 left handed 0/6 slight undulating in chases… the difference a jockey and first time blinkers can make

      robert Bland 13/01/18 3:48 PM Reply


      • Sick, i’d argue the LH is a mute point, ran a stormer at Uttoxeter in Midlands National off top weight, always jumped straight. Prob more the races he has run in. That’s as low as it gets in the lack of puzzler solving game. Talked myself out of tipping him, should have just tipped the two I backed in the Welsh Nat, not just one of them. On we go.

        Josh 13/01/18 3:50 PM Reply


  • My Shortlist for the 2 Big Races:

    14:40 Top of the game & Dino Velvet & Bentley De Mee & Man From Mars
    15:35 Cresswell breeze & Krackatoa King & Topper Thornton & Crosspark

    jeffrey rees 13/01/18 12:32 PM Reply


  • hi josh

    wish had read your comments on MILANSBAR, WOULD PROBABLY HAD A sods law SAVER! ON IT

    pendrem 13/01/18 4:00 PM Reply


    • oh i did but that hasn’t helped my mood. I’m in my post race furious mode after I’ve made a right pigs ear of a race. I’ve spent more time talking myself out of him when within 15 minutes of looking at the race i was going to back both last week’s tips. And changed my mind. I’ve done it before and will do it again, but it’s a right bugger. Poor. Should have been +19 points, puzzle solved.

      Josh 13/01/18 4:02 PM Reply


      • It`s the reason why we love the conundrum, if you backed Bryony 9 times out of 10, (as i have), she will get beat…this week her and the horse are as one!!
        Take the pill Josh and move on, plenty more puzzles to solve.
        My pocket is taking a right hammering, may even have to dip in my bank…haha.

        Stewart 13/01/18 4:08 PM Reply


        • I have had seconditis for about 2 weeks now, backed Don Bersy this morning and guess what….

          Stewart 13/01/18 4:09 PM Reply


        • oh its just worse because of my history with the horse… backing/tipping him last week for exactly same logic, realising blinkers may make all the difference today (may not, but you take chance at 20s, or you should), Bryony a bonus. Had i not tipped him last week i’d not be feeling like this. Not as bad anyway. I can’t believe the incompetence. But you are right. That is why we love the game. Highs are high, the pigs ears lows are the pits. Bottom of the trough. Moving on. In about 4 hours time.

          Josh 13/01/18 4:12 PM Reply


  • Got to credit Bryony there, she got the horse in to a great rhythm and just got on with it. The starnge thing was how quickly 3-4 went out like a light 1/2 mile from home when they should be seeing the trip out much better than they did.

    These are stuffy older Chasers though and it is all about “the day”; tipsters job is to find the “right horse on the right day”; when it works you find winners like we were before Christmas, Paddy The Oscar; Sonofking; Mustmeetalady etc, you are a champ; days like today; you are a chump. That’s racing and don’t we all love it.

    I simply think that in races like today at Warwick; some who win when dominating, simply don’t like eating mud and down the tools if they can’t get at/near the front, and that’s why you have to doff your cap to rides like that; she was going out on her sword, whatever happened.

    Got to dust down, accept a poor result at Warwick, a nice 16/1 runner up at Kempton in the Lanzarote, but a loss on the day for us on Elite and need to regroup.

    One little bright spot was the win for one of the horses we mentioned at the end BLACK IVORY at 5/1, not so much the horse winning but great to see Malcolm Jefferson, a “proper” trainer, who has been very ill, a double I gather today and that will hopefully put a spring in his step.

    Ian@SP2A 13/01/18 4:19 PM Reply


    • yep, credit to Bryony…but don’t forget about the blinkers…if they didn’t perk him up it wouldn’t have mattered who the jockey was. But she is superb at presenting a horse a fence and then getting them jumping/good clock, That race was over after 1 fence, (I think oh ‘f***k was the word used in my living room!) as soon as it was clear headgear had worked and Bryony got him to front with ease. He was the most dour stayer in that line up on past exploits. Was all there, staring at me… blinkers + bryony + much weaker race than last week where he could do his own thing up front.. i’ve predicted all that pre race on the notepad/in my head, and dodged it. And me writing all this nonsense is now therapy haha.
      On we go. Tough day. Should have been glorious. He wasn’t hard to find, not if you’d tipped him last week for exactly same reasons! (mark dropped/dour stayer/in form/1st time CP) What a bugger.
      Josh

      Josh 13/01/18 4:28 PM Reply


  • I can feel that emotion/frustration form here, fully understand it, been there.

    Just got to rub yourself metophorically down, forget it and move on, don’t let it burn away!

    Next big winner is waiting to be picked.

    Good Luck, chin up!…onwards and upwards

    Ian@SP2A 13/01/18 4:53 PM Reply


    • ha cheers, yep i’m in my pent up frustrated phase, like a moody toddler. That’s why we like this game, you do everything right but then the human mind/nature buggers you up!
      On we go, to the next one.

      Josh 13/01/18 5:30 PM Reply


  • Yes Josh, one of those times that I thought as soon as he got to the front and was winging them that I ought to bet in running. Never have yet. Though. Brownie points for the mention and picking him out and the reasons why today might be different.
    By the way I can give you a good discount on some barbed wire if the Opus Dei kit isn’t doing the trick.
    Hugh

    alpha2 13/01/18 5:06 PM Reply


    • ha, they are the most annoying… actually that one is the most annoying to date, because of last week. My ‘solving the puzzle heart’ sank after the first fence,well.. just after the start as he glided to the front, BF with hands full! Even predicted the lack of pace in this..well it wouldn’t be like last week with 5/6 wanting to lead etc.
      Yep i’ll try and take the positives. I’ve recently just got into whiskey, so have just been out and treated myself to a bottle or two. I may light a cigar haha. Awful.
      The kit is in full use, no blood drawn yet 🙂 mayeb barbed wire is required!
      I keep reading the last para of the write up, it doesn’t help matters!
      Josh

      Josh 13/01/18 5:29 PM Reply


  • Oh Josh…feel for you fella. Remember what a great job you do….(after you have tightened the OD strap!)
    Keep going mate
    Doug

    dougandnicky 13/01/18 6:05 PM Reply


  • There are 2 ways at looking at any outcome.

    I get the frustration.

    Watch today’s race and the frustration is justified.

    Then go and watch The Welsh National 2016; This Classic Chase 2017 and Finally The Eider at Newcastle February 2017; and then last week back at Chepstow.

    On the balance of those 4 major long distance handicap races, the fact is, you could not have picked the horse; far more reasons “not to” that “to”. The Blinkers may have helped, the Jockey definitely helped, the handicap mark may be the biggest factor, but go and look at those 4 races (which I did last night) and you’d be called a heretic to have tipped in….that and a quick swig of whiskey and you should feel a lot better and move on….

    some nice low grade handicaps at Kelso tomorrow are calling!

    Ian@SP2A 13/01/18 6:09 PM Reply


    • Hmm disagree on my reading of it. He should have been tipped. All in context that I tipped him last week. Same/similar logic..all pinned around that uttoxeter run where he came second off 11-12 over 4m. Assured stamina.most in here hadn’t proved they stayed and it was such a weak race compared to last week. Without the blinkers then yes. There is nothing to pin hope of a revival on. Just the sort I have tipped before and will again. I know how close I was early on in my analysis to tipping that. I then persuaded myself against it. Never mind. All about price. 16s+. And I tipped On The Road again, similar reasons. One that got away. 20s shots always worse, the 6s-8s missed are easier to live with! Anyway, done now. Lessons to learn. as always.

      Josh 13/01/18 6:14 PM Reply


  • On the whisky front my son spent some time in Jpan recently and has converted me to
    Nikka https://www.nikka.com/eng/products/blended/fromthebarrel.html

    When the next 16/1 shot comes in, its worth a try. 51% Proof so a swig neat hits you as hard as the Opus Dei. But, add a drop of water and it is nectar.
    Hugh

    alpha2 13/01/18 6:57 PM Reply


  • I too deserted Milansbar ! Last week was the last straw. I too plumped for giving on the road one last chance instead! Its the name of the game . I feel your pain!

    mark jeanes 13/01/18 7:02 PM Reply


    • We are a right pair! Over complicated it… 1.tipped last week for similar reasons 2. Why should he suddenly show more… blinkers/Frost/less competitive race than WN 3. Does price allow us to roll dice.. yep. Easy. Idiots haha. I’m nearly over it.

      Josh 13/01/18 8:20 PM Reply


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