Members Daily Post: 13/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Kempton 

1.30 –

The Tailgator (m2) H3 4/1 UP

Rothman (m2) I3 G3 10/1 S1 S2 S5  2nd 10/1>9/2

2.40 – Top of the game (m1) 9/1 4th 11/1

3.15 – Ballyalton (all hncps) H1 I3 G3 9/2 S4 UP

3.45 – Jenkins (m2) H3 I3 11/4 WON 7/2 

 

Wetherby 

2.50 – Slanelough (all hncps + m1) H3 6/1 3rd 9/2 

 

Warwick

2.25 –

Fly Camp (all hncps) 14,30  14/1 S2 UP

Join The Clan (hncp hurdle + m2) 25/1 S2 UP

Cobolobo (hncp hurdle) 22/1 S2 UP

Templeross (m2) I1 14/1  S2 S5 UP

3.35 – Missed Approach (all hncps) 30 I3 11/2 UP

4.05 – Allonok (NHF) 9/4 NR

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 1/8,6p, +1)  (1 point win bets)

No ‘tips’ today. Nothing i’d be confident enough on to unload my 1 point tipping stake on. Hopefully a few strategy qualifiers dotted around somewhere.

Re-Cap – yesterday was frustrating on two counts… we/I didn’t get to see what the Moore horse could do. He travelled so well in that Huntingdon race and his jockey had him in the right spot. I am unsure if he was unsighted  or what really as he had pinged every hurdle before crashing out. No doubt in my mind he would have given the winner something to think about- of course stamina was an known and he may not have stayed. If he is an ok price NTO i’ll probably try and get my money back with interest. Of course another qualifier won 10s>8s that I was dismissive of. Not the horse, i mean he was lightly enough raced with some solid placed form over hurdles. But I was led by Dennis’ ‘rest pattern stats’. His 60+ day stats were poor, as were his 121+ day stats… but i’ve learnt my lesson with him. He can clearly ready them. The positives.. well the trainer was in red hot form… and the horse was a double figure price. So, something to ponder there. Maybe those two factors should have out-weighed the ‘negative’ trainer stats. I’ll learn to be more forgiving of fitness niggles if the trainer is on fire and the price is good. I doubt i’d have tipped him but I didn’t even have a saver on! A winner for S2 though, and they needed one. 

GL with any bets today, looks a tricky day.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield 

3.10 – Sunset Bounty (4yo+) 33/1

3.40 – Joyful Dream (4yo+) 11/1

 

Wolverhampton

5.45 –

Lessanti (all hncps) 40/1

Top Offer (m1) 14 ES I1 G1 11/1 S1 S3 S6 

6.45 – New Abbey Angle (m1) ES H1 I3 G1 9/2 S1 S2 S3 S4

7.45 – Kingofmerrows (m1) ES H3 I3 G3  9/1 S3 S4 S5

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Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.30 Kemp – Minella Tweet (m3) 25/1 DNQ

2.05 Kemp – Gods Own (m1,m3,m4) 11/4 UP

2.40 Kemp – I Shot The Sheriff (m1) 28/1 DNQ

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

12.40 Warw – Vado Forte 14/1 WON 14/1 

 

D McCain (14/1<)

3.45 Kemp – Viserion 9/1 UP

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Big Race Stats/Trends/Pointers/Shorlists

 

Kempton: Lanzarote Hurdle

15/20 Aged 5 or 6 (15/122,33p) (7+ , 5/142,30p)

13/20 Top 3 in market

 

10 Year stats: 10/143, 34p

10/10 were moving in class from LTO (running at same, 0/36,6p)

10/10 had run at Listed level or above in career (had not, 0/41,9p)

9/10 had 3-8 hurdle runs (7/45,24p)

8/10 were GB or FR bred (8/61,16p) (Irish: 2/72,15p)

8/10 had won over hurdles twice (8/51,9p) (2/92,15p outside this)

7/10 had 3-8 career runs (7/45,16p)

Horse ran 90+ days ago: 0/19,1p

Those dropping 1 class (so, from a G3): 5/18 runners, 6 places, +33 

Those that ran at G3 or Listed LTO: 5/24, 6p, +27 

Trainers: Nick Williams (3/3), P Nicholls (3/11,5p) 1 winner… G Moore, V Williams, N Henderson

 

Shortlist: 

Focusing on the top four stats in that list above give you stats of: 7/19,10 places, +118 BFSP and leaves ‘just’ five, four of whom are all 20/1+, two trained by 3/3 Nick Williams…

River Frost / Dino Velvet / El Terremoto / Definitley De Mee / Man From Mars 

  • None of those have ‘just’ two hurdle wins
  • Moving down 1 class (thats G3 to Listed) or running G3/listed LT) is a big positive… only River Frost hits those (he was an eye-catcher LTO…running as if he could have won/has a stack in hand..but isn’t the biggest odds) 
  • When digging into those 7/19 stats, 1-2 hurdle wins only is of interest: Dino Velvet / Definitely De Mee / Man From Mars 
  • Finally, if you just looked at those that had run listed + in careers, and had run over hurdles 3 times.. you get 4/5,5p… Top of The Game / Definitley De Mee 
  • Clearly if an Irish Bred wins than that shortlist above won’t have been too useful!
  • On paper those 4 biggies look up against it, with Dino Velvet probably looking the most interesting. But we might have some fun for change! Who knows. Use/ignore as you please. 

 

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Warwick: Pertemps Qualifier 

Not too much to go on here…

14 year stats

PU LTO: 0/22,2p, Fell 0/9,0p

13/14, 12/1 or shorter SP

14/14, 20/1 or shorter SP

14/14 Top 8 in market

 

10 Year stats: 10/130

7/10 ran over 3m LTO: 7/50,14p (shorter… 2/53,14p)

Ran in a chase LTO: 0/27,1p

3+5lb claimers: 0/31,7p

Track LTO: Chelt (4/24,7p) Bangor (2/7)

Trainers: Jonjo (2/11,3;) , Pipe (0/7,1p)

 

Warwick Classic Chase

Again, not too much to get stuck into here either..

No 15 year stats of note

10 year stats: 10/143,31p

10/10 had 10-6 or more on back (exc claims) (Less… 0/39,5p) (Bottom weights, 0/24,4p)

10/10 had won over no further than 3m 2.5f in career (had, 0/55,11p)

10/10 placed on at least once of last three starts (had not, 0/29,4p)

6/10 had 1 handicap chase win only (6/36,12p) (mark up those types maybe)

Track LTO: Newbury (3/11,5p) Chep (2/29) Lingfield (2/3) Haydock (0/14,0p) Sandownd (0/8,0p)

Trainers: Nicholls (3/7,3p) A King (2/11,4p) NTD (0/14,2p) Pipe (0/7,0p)

 

Shortlist: The three 10/10 stats (which on the placed runners are a bit dubious) leave:

Krackatoaking / Cogry / Indian Castle / Topper Thornton / On The Road / Crosspark 

  • Within that, of those with just 1 handicap chase win, 6/18, +50 BFSP…. Indian Castle / Topper Thornton 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • Started off the day Ok with an 8/1 winner but that proved to be the only success of the day so a slight loss of 2pts on the day.
    Lingfield and Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:

    Lingfield
    12.50 Stosur 5/1
    1.25 Kasbah 11/2
    2.00 Mr Scaramanga 18/1
    3.10 Sheer Intensity 12/1
    3.40 Betsalottie 9/1 & Ixelles Diamond 12/1

    Wolves
    5.45 Chelwood Gate 4/1 & Top Offer 16/1
    6.45 Volturnus 5/1 & Indian Red 9/2
    7.15 Monte Cinq 14/1 & Hamish McGonagain 5/1
    7.45 Foxy Boy 16/1 & Mr Pocket 6/1
    9.15 Mouchee 5/1 & Mr Carbonator 5/1
    1pt win each.

    As there are a number of doublers I might have small bet on reverse forecasts. That’s not a recommendation just a punt to see how it works. I will get round to checking this but unfortunately work keeps getting in the way of my fun 🙂

    Ken McKenzie 12/01/18 6:45 PM Reply


    • Well done again today Ken, and a reverse forcast in the last.

      Dan Prandy 13/01/18 9:26 PM Reply


    • Well done again Ken. Tried 3 Reverse Forecasts 1/3 pt each and fortunately one of them was in the last! Thanks again.

      Mart 13/01/18 9:31 PM Reply


  • Early thoughts on Saturdays racing – Firstly some outsiders to speculate on. Nickys Baby, 3.40 LP, fancied to improve now dropped in distance, 20/1. Marquisaid, 3.00 War, ex french, ran well LTO before dropping out late and will be fitter now.

    The Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly over hurdles micro I have keeps on giving (20/1 winner Friday). They team up again 2.40 KP via Dentley De Mee 20/1+. am also on River Frost in this race at 7/1. OK he is up in the weights but this looks like a plot to me.

    I thought that The Organist won well LTO and goes again in the 2.25 War. 6/1+ looks ok here.

    martin colwell 12/01/18 8:27 PM Reply


    • Well done Martin, I had the Williams one too on my bot which won at 33ish on BF. Sadly my price restriction was 22 so it was cancelled! Livid I am. Still crying I am.

      Chris 13/01/18 10:27 AM Reply


      • Lizzie was on Racing UK or ATR yesterday. She explained how they get their horses from France and then bring them along under the radar. They get them young so they dont cost mega and so they can let them progress over time. Apparently Nick Williams speaks French fluently and has contacts in the provinces. I guess Lizzie is the front face of the operation but it sounded as if she was more than just a family jockey. I do think her rides go off at an inflated price on a number of occasions.

        martin colwell 13/01/18 11:26 AM Reply


        • I guess I need to change my price restrictions for that one now! Always trickier to do with the higher prices on BF though! Still feeling sick though!!

          Chris 13/01/18 12:16 PM Reply


  • I am on the following:

    Dino Velvet Kempton Saturday 14:40 1pt e/w
    No Hassle Hoff Warwick Saturday 14:25 1pt e/w if you can get 4 places otherwise 1.5pt win
    Cresswell Breeze Warwick Saturday 15:35 1pt e/w (make sure you get 4 places)

    Have also had £5 e/w on My Boy James in the 12:40 Warwick who I am sure is well treated but this race is full of unexposed types and trainer is in shocking form. Will try and get the write ups done in the morning.

    Nick Mazur 12/01/18 11:12 PM Reply


  • I think Ian from SP2A flagged up a valid point today about horses having their anti flu jabs, which could affect their well being temorarily.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 13/01/18 12:32 AM Reply


    • Yep, Nicholls has been known to for a while in December, and open about it. A mild dip usually follows in January. But hard to know who does what and when etc. And it can effect horses in very different ways, so as always, if you like the price i’d never be put off if you think a yard may be feeling the effects. Hard to know..as unless you’re connected to the stable, by the time you have enough evidence to see that the yard may be cold, they could well be about to bounce back into form! In terms of vaccines and their impact etc.

      Josh 13/01/18 11:06 AM Reply


      • Your right Josh…No real way of knowing..which is why i use the 7/14 day trainer form stats in the UK Trainer stats on Sky. Although not foolproof it can show up a dip in form fairly quickly….Then i give it a miss for a few weeks or so…that it takes the yard to get it’s gallops back up to speed.

        BOL Tony Mc,

        tonymc 13/01/18 11:33 AM Reply


        • Last January the Skelton yard had a real blip by their standards especially with their weekend runners – when arguably the pressure is greater. Am waiting to see if thats repeated this year – no sign yet

          finalflight 13/01/18 2:18 PM Reply


  • with no ITV 7 at the moment lets have a go at Sporting Life’s pick 7

    Big River, 13.50 Warwick- Money Back As A Free Bet If 2nd

    Josses Hill Win, 14.05 Kempton

    Malapie, 14.25 Warwick- Paying 4 Places

    William Henry, 14.40 Kempton: Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle- Paying 5 Places

    Count Meribel , 15.00 Warwick

    Ballyalton, 15.15 Kempton

    Cogry , 15.35 Warwick: Betfred Classic Handicap Chase- Paying 4 Places

    even though i have gone with William Henry in the 2-40 i can’t ignore El Terrermoto 40-1 and Dentley De Mee 20-1 and have done both ew with skybet paying 5 places.

    martin whittle 13/01/18 6:26 AM Reply


  • Peppay Le Pugh 12:40 Warwick
    I keep being drawn to this horse and I’m going to have an EW punt at 14s
    Did well with his last run after 6 months off and i think that will have blown the cobwebs away. Plus the trainer has hit a bit of form lately.

    Darren 13/01/18 9:42 AM Reply


    • GL Darren. Would be a nice start to the afternoon!

      Josh 13/01/18 11:04 AM Reply


      • Great race from peppay and Vado
        Did i do the fc? Did i eck!!

        Darren 13/01/18 12:47 PM Reply


        • When will we learn!! There is forecast gold in these here parts haha.

          Josh 13/01/18 1:12 PM Reply


  • I think Tom George might be of the same mind as Josh.Has 3 out today,Gethings at Wetherby and Paddy on Gods own,maybe Heskin has a suspension.I would think the owners want Paddy on Gods Own,has only won when he is on board.

    gearoid180468 13/01/18 10:02 AM Reply


    • Ha, i did enquire with a few people I know on the tweet Machine and Heskin is suspended. But apparently all George owners are permitted to request that Paddy rides their horses. If he wins on Gods Own today, you can’t see the owners jocking him off for the rest of the season, if he is free to ride him.

      Josh 13/01/18 10:24 AM Reply


    • Paddy has a good record on him but Barry geraghty rode him to win his first grade one at Punchestown. Lets hope Paddy wins on him and keeps the ride. No great loss to George stable to have Heskin suspended in my opinion.

      Roddo 13/01/18 12:36 PM Reply


  • classic chase tips/fancies/video preview etc in free post…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/01/13/free-daily-post-13-01-17-tips/

    Josh 13/01/18 11:04 AM Reply


  • I notice that one of yours Josh…. Missed Approach (3.35), has been given the ‘trainers nod’ by From The Stables. Last time I noticed this happened the damn thing won at decent odds without any of my money on.

    Tempted to follow the ‘system’ so to speak as FTS regularly makes seasonal profit from his naps and I do occasionally join him if he puts one up I shortlisted earlier and it’s on offer at decent odds. I like Missed Approach, has a reasonable chance, but has been well exposed to the market by both RP and TF correspondents. Is no doubt the bookies will have read the theory too, so there’s unlikely to be any value in the price this time.

    One to watch I’m thinking.

    Tim 13/01/18 11:50 AM Reply


    • yep, price just too short for me, was never really bigger than 11/2 across the board…were he 8s+ he may have given me a headache..but I can leave him and let him beat me at shorter, which he may do. He is a bit of a thinker.. they don’t keep swapping headgear for the sake of it. He does look a stayer as Festival run would show, but this is different ground and may be a harder pace, for longer. He is runs his race then he won’t be far away but there are some chinks in which to have hope if taking him on! When he is 9/2, makes you realise just how big 7/2 was for Native River in last years Welsh National, as an example. I don’t get the impression he is much better than this mark, but I could be wrong. He is is in front three, travelling sweetly, popping his fences, he’ll be thereabouts. GL if you play.

      Josh 13/01/18 11:54 AM Reply


  • Vado Forte has just gone in Josh…… Got to say i missed it …Blast!
    Great shout though.
    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 13/01/18 12:46 PM Reply


    • Trust the micro Tony haha. I backed him, not as much as i’ve had on some of his… he was always going to do that when learning to settle.. I wasn’t convinced he would like that ground! But he was 14s, and that Lacey angle does find them, well, so far so good!

      Josh 13/01/18 12:48 PM Reply


      • Shassonfarazzin! Musky. lol

        tonymc 13/01/18 12:50 PM Reply


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