Members Daily Post:12/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Sedgefield 

3.10 – Mahler Lad (m1) 14,30 G3 10/1 S1 S2 

 

Huntingdon

1.30 –

Just So Cool (all hncps) 14 10/1 S2 WON 10/1>8/1 

Le Capricieux (hncp hurdle) 14 ES H3 5/1 S3 Fell 

Travertine (m2) 13/2 2nd 7/2

2.30 – Riverside City (m2) 13/2 PU 8/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 1/8,6p, +1)  (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES

1.30 Hunt – Le Capricieux – 5/1 (WH/BV/SKyB) 9/2 (gen) Fell 8/1

2.30 Hunt – Riverside City – 13/2 (Bet365) 6/1 (gen,declared price unless bigger SP) PU 8/1

 

Le Capricieux… well this looks a fascinating race without too much depth… I’ve had a good look at it and to my eyes it is between four of them.. the fav, the ‘tip’, Travertine and Balibour. If Just So Cool wins (ah bugger, win he did!… i took another look after this…Denis was 3/129 with all runners 121+ days, that had run before, 2/87 in handicaps, I couldn’t back him on those, oh well) it then fair enough but his trainer is 2/97 with horses returning after 60+ days off in the last two years so i’ll live with it. Now, i am probably done for IF this favourite handles Soft ground and stays this trip in it. That is the question. He has been withdrawn before when the ground was deemed too soft and arrives here after 61 days off, with a decent but inexperienced jockey on (as they all are in this conditional jockeys handicap). Undoubtedly he brings the best form to the table, dropping in class from a hot C3 where he sandwiched two subsequent winners. It’s the best form on paper in this. But the ground question/break make 7/4 short enough and I’m happy to take him on. Not a race to go mad on as he could bolt up, but i’ll roll the dice. Given on my reading of the race this is between four of them I think 5/1, 9/2 may be a point, a point and a half, too big for Le Capricieux. He arrives here on the back of a win, in form, and fit. This is only his 5th handicap hurdle start and his third since returning from an absence. He showed a willing attitude the last day and ran like a horse that wanted to win. He was also doing all his best work late which gives me hope he could improve further for this step up in trip. Gary Moore is ‘in form’ 7/34,14 places last 14 days, and does fine enough with LTO winners. He is 9/34,14p in handicap hurdles at Huntingdon in the last 5 years, 5/21,9p in class 4. Now, this is a random micro but I did take a dip into Moore’s stats… and with handicap hurdlers that won LTO, running in a C3/4, that are moving up in trip by 2.5-3.5f he is 3/11,7p. He is moving up in class and has that to prove but I thought this price was ok, as I try to hone my 7/2 -11/2 tipping eyes. Time will tell if I can improve at this end but it won’t be for the want of trying. I want them to tick a lot of boxes in that price range, including the trainer being ‘in form’, which this one does. We all know he’ll now come a gallant 2nd or 3rd!

Of the rest… well I have had smaller nibbles on Travertine 2nd and Balibour 3rd...if either win it will pay for my stake above and leave me with some beer money. The former… well I don’t think he showed enough LTO and he is 8. But he does drop down in class here, it’s his second run for the yard and after a short break. He could have needed it LTO and may appreciate these calmer waters. I thought at 13/2, given my take on the other three in this, and his lack of ‘ratings pointers’ to support his case on the figures, may be about right. But I could be wrong. There is a chance he needs further and is one to watch if/when stepping back up to 3m, if he doesn’t win today. I prefer the Moore horse. Balibour… is in the ‘could be anything’ category for Lavelle and she is an eye-catching 5/11,6p,+18 with her handicap debutants in the last year. It appears she has really settled in to her new yard (it can take time, I think she relocated in the summer of 2016?, or was it 17, i lose track of time) and has always been a superb trainer of young hurdlers. This one stayed on well the last day suggesting he may want further than this. But he has a long straight to wind up and he could be seen to much better effect here now handicapping.  I’ve probably been a bit cavalier but I have taken a view and you can do with all that as you please. I’m hoping the fav flounders in the mud and if he does i have had a shocker if I get no return on the race!

 

Riverside City – write up in free post.

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield

12.20 – Star Strong (all hncps) 14,30 H3 I1 G1 11/8  S1 S2 S4  WON 6/4 

1.20 –

Exit Europe (4yo+) H3 G3 9/2 S5  UP

Madrinho (4yo+) 14 10/1 2nd 20/1 

1.50 –

Kingsley Klarion (4yo+) 14 I3 8/1 UP

Mime Dance (4yo+) 14  22/1 UP

2.20 – Unforgiving Minute (4yo+) 14 G1 16/1 S6  UP

3.50 – Absolutely Awesome (4yo+) 10/1 UP

 

Newcastle

7.15 – Kreb’s Cycle (all hncps) 10/1

 

Dundalk

5.00 – Bluesbreaker (4yo+) 9/1 WON 6/1 

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D McCain (14/1< guide)

1.10 Sedge – Wazowski (m3) 4/1 WON 4/1>7/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Re-cap on yesterday… hmm, well at least the notes horses have started the year in consistent form! Frustrating, but i’d snap your hand off to win +3 points every 6 bets. I’ll start with Hit And Run..no excuse there, he has run his race..he has got out-paced as they turned for home before plugging on. The hope was that those infront would stop in the mud, alas they didn’t. He never really looked like winning. Minella For Me… now, I don’t like to criticise jockeys. They put their lives on the line for my pleasure and they make mistakes. Life is too short for too much negativity. It all evens out over time as well- I will back many a winner that gets his/her head in front thanks to ‘poor’ rides in behind. I don’t think this was Heskin’s finest moment and I’m starting to think he is just average. I know a few of you think he is as ‘weak in the finish’…he made a tactical howler here for me and given how the horse finished I think he should have won. Paddy Brennan would have, because he’s far more aggressive on chasers. This one swung into the straight on the bridle and was bang there at the front. He clearly stays further and also takes a while to wind up (that much was clear post race, but you’d like to think the stable jockey knew that pre race!) and as such I think he should have booted him to the front and wound it up. As it happened he sat there and it wasn’t until Tom Scu swept past that he started to move. The horse took a while to stoke up and by that point it was too late. He’d have won in another 50 yards. Anyway, that’s racing. Frustrating. I won’t be shocked if this time next year Heskin is freelance.

Did anyone back Mr Antolini? Well done if so…I did stare at him, but thought his morning price was short enough given the break, fact he was 0/7,1p in handicap hurdles, wasn’t moving in trip and he’d gone up 8lb from his last run without winning. But, he was ‘doing something different’…first run for ‘Big Nige’, 2/18,5p with stable newcomers in last 2 years, the yard were ‘in form’, Sam was up and the race had an open feel. 6/1 SP. I can live with it, not one of those sickening 10s+ jobbies. Discoverie boosted the case for an EW approach to S2 when in the 16/1-25/1 morning price range.

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Oh, two things I meant to mention yesterday which caught my eye… Lucy Wadham had another winner on Wednesday taking her recent form to 3/10,5p in the last 14 days. She had a second at Leicester. Unless i’m mistaken she’d been very very quiet for long enough, maybe some issues. So, a yard worth keeping an eye on in the next couple of weeks, there could be a decent winner or two lurking. Kielan Woods also said something interesting when interviewed at Ludlow…McPherson had two winners on the card but after the first he said the trainer had gone ‘very easy’ on them at home in the last month, due to the atrocious going conditions, with an eye on having a strong back-end to the season. So, something to keep in mind if such things interest you. I wonder if Feb will be a decent month…

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Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends

Three races of interest this Saturday.. two handicap hurdles… the Lanzarote from Kempton and the Pertemps qualifier from Warwick – both should have 14+ runner fields. I’ll dig out any stats/trends/shortlists for this post. On the free post there is the Classic Chase to get stuck into. Looks open enough but weaker than some years. Still, one of my fav race to attack… the ones where you’ve previously tipped 20/1 winners (Russe Blanc) always are! 🙂

To follow at some point. I’ll prob post up in Saturday’s post around lunchtime.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • I totally agree with your comments on Heskin and i also believe that if Brennan had rode it we would have been on a winner.
    However, the F.O’Brien stable appears under a cloud or there having a mid winter rest as no winners from it in 2018 and very few runners. That has left Paddy with just seven outside rides in 2018,including two for Goerge. Today he has gone up to Catterick for one ride on a Duncan horse. I cannot believe a jockey of Brennans quality has so few outside rides and most of them for small yards like P.Henderson,J.Ryan and Duncan. He needs an agent to get him up on the better quality horses so he can showcase his talents especially on the TV meetings. I have a friend who is very close to a biggish owner who spends 000’s of thousands on the game. He has several horses with B.Ellison and tends to put big name jockeys on his horses. In the past they have been ridden by McCoy,Scudamore and today Brian Hughes. I will ask if they have considered Paddy,and if not why not.

    Roddo 11/01/18 6:08 PM Reply


    • Yep, it was poor. O’Brien was due to hit a cold spell, you can’t keep them in form forever and they’ve had a good 6 month+ run where everything seemed to be running well. Maybe they’ve copied Nicholls in given theirs the flu jabs in December. Many could just need a rest, be handicapped up to their best now, and/or are not suited to deep ground- it is pretty soft/tacky everywhere at the moment. He could be going easy on them at home to ensure that he has a good spring.
      In terms of outside rides..well he will struggle… many a trainer/owner has their retained riders who they prefer and there are not many spares going, esp in the South. When you take into account the number of rising stars with useful claims, it is tough. Pony racing appears to have sped up the development of jockeys, taking young James Bowen as an example..but you’ve got the likes of Mitch and Jonjo Junior riding well (no idea if they were on the pony circuit, but it didn’t exist as it does now a few years back)

      Trainers tend to reward loyalty/give rides to those who come in and ride out etc. Paddy will be at Fergal’s most days of the week so it is impossible to build up the relationships. But we all know his talents- Daly ensured he booked him for his winner at Bangor – Vice Et Vertu, who only ever seems to win these days when Paddy is on (+ C4). AS an example, + those you list. He is a go to man for Paul henderson, esp when they are planning a bet.

      Harry Skelton would be another- again he doesn’t get many outside rides. I mean he has a lot of his brothers to ride but he will be based there most days.

      I did read an interesting theory also… some trainers could be reluctant to put Harry up, fearing that if he wins, the owner may move the horse to the Skelton yard!! Maybe some think the same with Paddy and moving the horse to Fergal’s, a powerhouse in the making. Who knows.

      All intriguing. Final thought…many of the jockeys are under a couple of agents I believe. I always wondered how they juggled that. It may rely on direction from trainers/owners.. ‘we want X’.

      Josh

      Josh 11/01/18 6:22 PM Reply


      • Thanks for your reply Josh. You make a fair point about flu jabs,something which several stables appear to be doing at this time of year.
        Its the quality of Paddys outside rides that worries me. Compare him with Scudamore(somebody of similar talent) who has a probably bigger stable job with Pipe. Scu gets outside rides for Tizzard,Mullholland, Bridgwater and Nick Williams. He also picks up for family connections with Russell and his Brother,and lesser stables like Flint. Paddy rode Tizzards stable star Cue Card this time last year but since being jocked off,Scu is the preferred jockey to pick up their spare rides.

        Roddo 12/01/18 9:11 AM Reply


  • Well Newcastle continues to frustrate me. Just can’t find a consistent strategy for there. More homework required. One winner so far from Chelmsford tonight. Fingers crossed for a couple more to wipe out Newcastle losses. Anyway onto tomorrow and unfortunately Newcastle is back on the cards so I’m going very conservative with just one pick there. All qualifiers as follows:

    Lingfield
    12.20 Bleu et Noir 6/1
    12.50 Felisa 8/1 & Ocean Side 7/1
    1.20 Bookmaker 25/1 (EW)
    1.50 Black Dave 9/1 & Masquerade Bling 6/1
    2.20 Right Touch 6/1 & Mr. Scaramanga 18/1
    2.50 Menelik 5/1
    3.20 Envisaging 6/1
    3.50 Temple Road 6/1

    Newcastle
    6.15 Ideal Spirit 10/1

    Ken McKenzie 11/01/18 7:42 PM Reply


    • Why would Newcastle be different from the other AW tracks?All of the surfaces are different from one another but that would not affect a system unless it was based around form on a certain type of surface. Your sample size is likely still waiting to regress to a mean? Logical thinking may say any sample size is never big enough?

      martin colwell 11/01/18 8:10 PM Reply


      • Straight and stiff compared to circular and tight?

        chrisrees 11/01/18 8:18 PM Reply


        • I’d say very sharp for any race over 8F, whilst also very straight for any race 8F or less. With a stiff 4F long stretch toward the finish at all distances. https://www.racingpost.com/profile/course/1353/newcastle-aw/course-map
          If you take a look at the google earth view and bear in mind that the finishing straight on the upper side of the circuit in the pic is only 4F long, gives you a good idea just how sharp the circular track is. The chute for the 8F straight course running off to the upper left in the pic is 4F long.

          One thing is for sure there’s no where quite like it on turf or AW.

          Tim

          Tim 12/01/18 10:26 AM Reply


          • So are you saying that it is a peculiar track in comparison with the other AW tracks and so form on the other tracks has little relevance? Therefore only form on the actual track would be relevant.

            martin colwell 12/01/18 10:48 AM Reply


            • It’s difficult to generalise but as far as the round course is concerned…. I’ve seen bigger dog tracks! Makes Chester look positively galloping by comparison.

              Tim

              Tim 12/01/18 11:35 AM Reply


          • Sorry….. that should have been …. The chute for the 8F straight course running off to the upper RIGHT in the pic is 4F long.

            Tim Hanson 12/01/18 11:40 AM Reply


      • It’s a puzzle Martin but one I’m determined to solve. BTW only 5.5pts down on the day to adv odds so not a complete disaster and still over 100% ROI for the week. I think I can live with that:-)

        Ken McKenzie 11/01/18 10:09 PM Reply


        • Just comparing course winners (horses with at least one win at the track) on each of the AW courses since Newcastle re-opened as AW on 17th May 2016 you get the following results,
          Course Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Races
          Newcastle 817 120 14.69 -131.77 369
          Southwell 907 115 12.68 -173.45 231
          Lingfield 1396 175 12.54 -324.01 403
          Chelmsford City 1119 135 12.06 -337.22 419
          Kempton 1480 164 11.08 -400.36 450
          Dundalk 1769 194 10.97 -530.65 345
          Wolverhampton 2338 247 10.56 -688.05 630

          It is still too early to conclude it is a horses for courses track as the 2016 figures for Newcastle were above 18% and just under 13% last year, expanding on that I just think using any comparisons from other AW tracks using data before Newcastle opened and trying to adapt these systems to Newcastle rely more on luck than method, just a thought.

          heavypaul 13/01/18 12:15 PM Reply


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