Members Daily Post: 11/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Catterick

1.30 –

Cracking Find (all hncps + hncp chase + m1/m2/m2) ES+ 9/1 S3A UP

Discoverie (all hncps) ES G3 20/1 S1 S2 S3  2nd 28/1 (1/4 odds)

Ink Master (hncp chase + m1/m1) 14,30 H3 I1 16/1 S2 S5 UP

2.35 –

I Just Know (all hncps+ hncp chase +m1) H3 I1 3/1  WON 4/1 

Golden Investment (hncp chase +m1/m2) 14,30 ES H3 I1 G3 6/1 S3 S4 UR

3.10 –

Astaroland (all hncps) G1 15/2  S1 3rd 10/1 

Danceintothelight (m1) 14,30 14/1 S2 UP

3.45 – Hit And Run (m1) H1 I3 11/2  3rd 6/1 

 

Leicester

2.50 – Minella For Me (all hncps + hncp chase +m1) 14 G3 11/2  2nd 4/1 

3.25 – Mr Antolini (all hncps) 14  5/1 WON 5/1>6/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 1/4,4p, +5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.50 Leic – Minella For Me – 5/1 (gen) 11/2 (BF Sport/PP) 2nd…staying on… I may be going off Heskin! 

3.45 Catt – Hit And Run – 11/2 (gen) (6s BF Sport/PP) 3rd 6/1

 

Minella For Me2nd… I think Paddy B would have won on him here… he has tanked through this and he has allowed him to get tapped for toe, staying on again to the line.. when they turned for home he was bang there, he should have just kicked and tried to run them ragged. Instead he sat still, got passed, then asked him, taking a while to hit top gear… Paddy would have booted him to the front turning in. Maybe it’s the pocket talking! A Frustrating second as he could have won that 🙂 just worth a go at 5s I think given what on paper looks a race with an appalling lack of depth. First the horse… well he is unexposed and doing something different! This is his third chase start and second in a handicap. He moves up in trip by 1/2 a mile here and I was pondering whether that would make a difference. He is a 3m point winner so you would think so. He led for a long way the last day and maybe did too much up front. In any case, over 2m, he looked to lack a change of gears and couldn’t go with them. He clouted the last and the jockey just let him coast home, beaten further than he otherwise would have been. He had jumped very well up to that point and at least has experience of the course.  Interesting enough that they run him back here. There is a chance he still needed the run also. Tom George is now in better form than he was, 5/24,9p the last 14 days. In the last two years he is 8/31,17p, +13 with handicappers making their second start, that caught the eye, and not a bad little micro in itself. Finally… pace… he will race handily and there is every chance they try and dictate from the front here. Ground is an unknown but they ran him on it over hurdles and i’ll take a chance. He may improve for it. The trainer form/that ‘micro’ second start in a handicap/pace angle, has tipped me over the edge at the prices. I’ll roll the dice… i should add, Zigger Zagger looked interesting at 12s, and I did have some change on him also. Chasma looks solid, but worth taking on. He won’t be far away in the hat-trick bid.

Hit And Run – 3rd… no excuse there, maybe getting outpaced before staying on but I knew that was a risk pre-race…Will Kennedy rides the winner! Improving Mick Easterby’s 0/29,4p record with stable debutants in the last two years. He’s perked up a 10yo, good training.  again I have been lured in here…him and Nendrum are the only two unexposed/more to come horses in this to my eye and I think it could be between the two. (Forecast opportunities!..they never come in when I predict them explicitly pre race!) Hit And Run arrives here in form, having his 4th handicap hurdle start. He is the top rated horse in the race (which makes the class move of less concern) and gets a handy 5lb off his back. He is doing a couple of things different from that last run, dropping in trip and CP applied first time. Neither may be positives, but they could be reasons why he pulls out more. His form is ok..the horse he chased home two starts ago hacked up again, and the front two LTO were well clear of the rest. McCain remains in fine form, 6/25,12p last 14 days. What finally convinced me was that this drop in trip ‘could be’ a positive IF this turns into a test/slog. There are 3/4 horses who like to get on with it in here, inc the fav, and it isn’t impossible they do too much and fall into a hole. Hit And Run should just keep going and there is a long straight, with a stiffer climb than Sedgefield I think (I could be wrong but that goes down hill for a way, Catt more uphill to the line??). If he is thereabouts at the final couple of flights I can’t see something kicking on away from him and he could use his extra stamina to gallop past. I also want to take on Nendrum at 7/4.. now he could hack up again, but a) he could get pestered b) he does have to prove it in soft, in handicaps..i think he should be fine c)he has jumped out to the right when going left handed before,he won’t want to do that here d) the trainer has a mediocre record with LTO winners (5/35,15p last 2 years, AE + IV way down on what you’d expect…. so, while he may win well and hack up again, there are reasons to take him on and I wouldn’t lump on at 7/4. Hartside looks interesting as he will be thereabouts (not another tricast??) but he is long in the tooth..but if these two flounder he could pick up the pieces. Snowed In…well he is very inconsistent and struggles to put two good runs together, but if he goes like LTO he may be in there pitching. Maybe the top 3 comes from those 4, we shall see 🙂

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Of the rest..well at the prices I couldn’t muster much enthusiasm for anything else on this page..plenty have major ground concerns and an ability to stay in this ground…but maybe I’ve read a couple of those wrong, time will tell. I’ll live with it. About to stare at the 2.35 for the free post..i don’t think i’ll be tipping Golden Investment but will stare at him more intently…

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

1.30 Catt – Ink Master (m1,m3) UP

2.35 Catt – Golden Investment (m1,m3) UR

3.45 Catt – Hit And Run (m2/m3) 3rd 6/1

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.35 – Milborough (m3/m4) UP

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

3.25 Leic – Sword Of Fate UP

 

TTP All-Weather

Apols for the delay, but the main jumps content always comes first 🙂

Newcastle

1.55 – Belle De Lawers (all hncps + 4yo+) ES I3 6/1 S3 UP

3.00- The Foozler (m1) 25/1 UP

 

Chelm

6.30 –

Amazing Grazing (all hncps) 14 H3 G3 7/1 S5 

Arnarson (m1) 14,30 H3 I1 G1  6/4 S1 S4 UP 6/4>3/1

7.30 – Too Many Shots (m1) ES 6/1 S3 UP

8.30 – Jazz Affair (m1) ES 7/1 S3

9.00 – Captain Scooby (all hncps) 14 I1 20/1  S6

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

If you missed it from yesterday…

 

The Week That Was: Weekly ArticleREAD HERE>>>

Three pages packed with three horses to follow, a look at Henry Brooke, Sandy Thompson, and a re-cap on Buywise. I hope you enjoy the read. As yet I haven’t worked out which of the stats I plan to follow in the test zone. The Henry Brooke ‘tracks’ I may do. But if you have a HRB account do save what you wish, and by all means post up any runners as and when! 🙂

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Some Important Parish Notices…

PLEASE NOTE! … all questions are always welcome in these parts and following one exchange today can I just clarify, if it wasn’t clear… that ALL qualifiers listed in section 1 START FROM the trainers I have researched in my unique Trainer Track Profiles reports. If the horse does not qualify against those stats they will not appear in section one. It is only when I have that list of qualifiers that I compare against the ‘ratings pointers’ (horseracebase/geegeez/inform). That is where some of the advised strategies stem from. I am not going through every race, every card and plucking horses out of thin air to qualify against said strategy. They HAVE TO hit my trainer stats first and foremost.

My FREE TIPS… are nothing to do with the members’ posts. Remember any qualifiers on this page are invariably stats based. When I started blogging in 2013 I focused on 3m+ handicap chases as my race of choice. That was after reading Nick Mordin’s ‘Betting For A Living’. They are the only race type I ‘attack cold’ , making a subjective judgement, using my experience and all the tools available to me. Sometimes I ‘take on’ a stats qualifier found on this page. That’s irrelevant. If you follow the free tips you are best treating them separately from any other approach you may follow. They will always remain free (bar Cheltenham week, which I now paywall and offer no free content- you get that as part of your subs anyway, +62 points last year) as not to do so would be a bit shitty and take away from the general ethos of the place.

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TTP ALL-WEATHER: RESULTS UPDATE

Now brace yourselves… there is good news, and a lot of bad news…

Remember I am using the ‘Flat Advised Strategies’ for these…

The good news…as hoped…

  • S1 (which is Double Top Rated) : 2/7,5p, -1 
    • Decent enough, esp the places, worth keeping close tabs on
  • S4 (treble rated): 4/13,9p, +4
    • Ah, good old Strategy 4. It’s had a decent start on the sand, when everything else has been awful. Most have run very well and a few of those placed horses have been decent prices, 5/1-10/1. 

The ‘bad news’…well so far the other strategies are having an awful time… 

  • S2 (3/19,7p, -8.8), S3 (3/45,8p, -32) S5 (1/7,4p, 0), S6 (0/18,2p,-18)

 

The upshot of all that is to focus on S4! 🙂 Clearly don’t dive in, and don’t start backing them yet systematically as they are small numbers…but as I have said before out of all the strategies, the most confidence should be had in S4. Based on evidence to date and because of the logic etc. 

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As always, THE KEY is your friend…if you have yet to flick through the Welcome Post link, please do. 

If anything is ever unclear, just post a comment or email me!

Josh

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Millborough is a decent e/w price at 16/1 with ladbrokes in the 2.35 at catterick.Ian Duncan does well with his select bunch of chasers.He trained a 1st and 2nd last week at carlisle.He has booked Paddy,who had a winner last Feb on Finaghy Ayr,a lucky horse for me as i have been on him on his last 2 wins.
    Ben Curtiss is in red hot form at the moment with fantastic lsp and has a respectable 16% strike rate.Amazing Grace ran a good race at Southwell Friday and may be improving with racing.Interestingly Ben was on the winner that day and Richard Guest has booked him for this ride.The 9/1 with BV looks fair value,well at least if it drifts I wont be losing 14pts profit as happened yesterday

    gearoid180468 10/01/18 7:48 PM Reply


  • Amazing Grazing 6.30 Chelmsford

    gearoid180468 10/01/18 7:51 PM Reply


  • 230 catterick intothelight,lucinda russell gives it a good mention in the scottish sun

    william 10/01/18 8:47 PM Reply


    • Or might that be “Itstimeforapint” in the 1.30?

      Neil 10/01/18 8:52 PM Reply


      • We’ll get it right between us sooner or later!

        Itstimeforapint, 2:35 Catterick.

        Now, I’m off for a pint!

        Neil 10/01/18 8:55 PM Reply


  • correction re above it should be 235 catt itstimeforapint (and i have already had more than a few)

    william 10/01/18 8:51 PM Reply


  • Gonalston Cloud Catterick Thursday 14:35 1pt e/w-Looks the solid choice here with one of the few proven at the trip. Loves the track with 2 wins and a 2nd in this last year from 3 runs. Its interesting that Tinkler gets back on-board for the first time since March 2016 given he gets on very well with the horse (2 wins and a 2nd from 3 rides) . Kent has a solid record at the track and has had a couple of 2nd last month given you want some signs of life from the yard. He is 4/10, 7p in handicap chases so he almost never runs a bad race. Expect him to go close.
    Sleepy Haven Leicester Thursday 15:25 1pt e/w (make sure you get 4 places)-Another that looks suited by the conditions given it looks to be very heavy tomorrow. Back down to his last winning mark which was at the track 13 months ago. Last season he won on his 4th start of the season. Candish is coming back into form with a 1st a couple of 4ths and a likely 2nd/3rd today if not for falling. With 4 places paid I would be disappointed if we didn’t get our money back at least and should have a decent chance of winning.

    Nick Mazur 10/01/18 10:23 PM Reply


  • Sorry I’m a bit late tonight. Weekly visit to see grandkids. Love em to bits.

    Thanks for all the words of support. It is appreciated. Another successful day on the AW with 3 winners across 2 meetings giving us an 18pt profit after R4 to adv odds.

    I did say in a previous post that there must be a dip around the corner after the recent run. Well Newcastle hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for my stats so fasten your seatbelts, it could be a bumpy landing! On the opposite side of that Chelmsford is one of the best so lets hope we come away with something on the plus side of £0.00 for tomorrow’s efforts 🙂

    Qualifiers as follows:
    Newcastle
    1.55 Gabrial’s Star 9/2
    2.25 Henpecked 5/1
    3.00 Itlaaq 9/1 & Luv U Whatever 9/1
    3.35 The jungle VIP 12/1
    4.05 Blue Harmony 13/2
    4.35 Doc Sportello

    Chelmsford
    5.55 Ross Raith Rover 5/1
    6.30 Espresso Freddo 11/2
    7.30 Too Many Shots 15/2 & Sea’s Aria 15/2
    9.00 Captain Scooby 14/1
    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 10/01/18 10:37 PM Reply


    • Not a going day today but dont stop doing what youre doing. I for one really appreciate the effort you put in putting these selections up. Win or lose.

      Mart 12/01/18 1:09 AM Reply


  • just got this offer but it’s open to everyone, Racing UK for £10 a month for the next 4 months you can have a look here https://www.racinguk.com/januarysale

    martin whittle 11/01/18 9:37 AM Reply


    • Thanks Martin. Ever since I ditched Sky Sports and Sky Movies in the summer been meaning to get Racing UK but haven’t got around to it so will make sure I get that sorted when I am back home at the weekend.

      Nick Mazur 11/01/18 9:47 AM Reply


    • Note, it is a 1 yr contract and reverts to ‘full price’ £24.98 from month five.

      chrisrees 11/01/18 12:22 PM Reply


  • 2.35, free tips.. well Gonalston has around 16 stone of expectation on his shoulders now, so he’s buggered, and Itstimeforapint seems fancied in a few places also… but they are the two bets at the prices, no doubt about that.

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/01/11/free-daily-post-11-01-18-upd1/

    Josh 11/01/18 10:27 AM Reply


  • As the holy trinity are on Gonalston Cloud I will have to have some 11/1 each way.

    Un Prophette won LTO and the two runners that did run in that race to have since run have both won. The 5/2 available may still be some value? Crushed is highly rated, 12.30 Cat, and may well go on to bigger things after today. He is only 13/8 though.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/01/18 10:44 AM Reply


    • yep, i think that may have done for him, out to 14s. I thought he’d be fancied but a real chance he may need another run. Apparently entered at Donny a couple weeks back when abandoned, but rest pattern is fine. Maybe he’s hard to get fit at home. Anyway, money is down!

      Josh 11/01/18 12:24 PM Reply


    • Well….do we have a bad beat jackpot on this site? I do not think I can remember two selections running so poorly when well fancied. Both never going and pulled up when out the back of the TV. I now sit in the corner with the dunces cap on.

      martin colwell 11/01/18 1:40 PM Reply


      • Ah yes, Un P never travelled..very wary of Venetia’s following up a win, especially when short price. Not the best record from memory. In part that may be because plenty have won in gruelling conditions that take it out of them, until they run again you don’t know if much left. A line through that run, he never travelled..maybe they went too quick for him around here over that trip. Ran at Exeter in small field LTO, sitting second, prob went a slower pace. They didn’t hang around here. Could bounce back NTO… 46 days off suggests an issue since last run also, unless he was meant to run at the odd abandoned meeting.

        Josh 11/01/18 1:45 PM Reply


  • Think it was Josh that mentioned a few days ago that Tony Carroll hadn’t had a winner for over a 100 days. But some of his have been running well and maybe he’s not far off breaking it.

    Suni dancer in the last at Chelmsford has some form that could win this and last run in early Jan could be interpreted as returning to some form. 65 on BF right now. The Scooby could win if pace collapses and he can lie up near enough off the back till running on late…but you can’t predict it.

    Steve C 11/01/18 8:53 PM Reply


    • Ha, fate known after 5 yards I think! hopefully Downing will be back on next time.

      Steve C 11/01/18 9:04 PM Reply


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