Free Daily Post: 06/01/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 1/3, +14)

 

2.05 Chepstow – Welsh National 

Milansbar – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UR/BD

On The Road – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) UR

*Poor. very poor. Milansbar didn’t go the early pace at all and never picked up the bridle, maybe resenting the headgear. Not sure really. They went hard early and he couldn’t cope. On The Road UR fairly early on, shame. Not sure if unsighted but his inexperience was the risk. Won’t complain. Wasn’t close to finding the winner. 

 

3.00 Sandown

Buywise – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) WON 16/1>12/1 

*that went  to plan, it really couldn’t have gone better. A funny old game. One race read appallingly, the other was near enough perfect. On we go. 

 

Thoughts…

Chepstow…

Milansbar – I am very excited about watching him here. I think he may be the ‘best’ slogger in this race, on what they have all done. I only say that based on his Midlands National 2nd in 2016 where he lugged around 11-12 in very soft ground over 4m+. That was off a mark of 145 and he comes here today off 134. Aged 11 he is lightly raced for his age, this being his 13th chase start. Were he 8/9 you’d say he had the perfect profile/prep for this. I fancied him to run a big race in this last year but after taking the second fence home with him he was never in it. On better ground and going a ferocious pace, he just couldn’t cope. He is an old fashioned galloper and that is what you may need here today. He is 11lb lower than last year’s race, has had one more prep run, and has 7lb less to carry on his back. Wheelan rides which is a positive. Of some interest they put him in first time CP which could make a difference. He may hate them but they could help him travel better. He comes here in decent form and his run LTO suggests this has been the plan. He was going forward at the line and wasn’t given an overly hard time. He could be spot on here. He races prominently enough and I just hope he gets into a rhythm and is clearly travelling early. If he is there turning in i’m not sure anything else in here, at the weights, will out-stay him. At 16s I had to play. Fingers crossed I get a run for my money, for longer than I did last year! Everything looks right this time. An older horse has won this before and as I said he is lightly raced for his age. More than built into the price. A live ‘outsider’ for sure.

On The Road – a proper stab but he is 20/1 and given he has 10-00 on his back with the claim, and his position on the shortlist below, I had to have a dart. He rarely runs a bad race and is unexposed as a staying chaser. He is unexposed as a chaser. Heavy is no problem. The trip, and even 3m+, is a real unknown. He shapes as if 26f or so is no problem and has stayed on over that trip before at Sedgefield, having been out-paced. He may not handle such a big field over fences. He may not have the class, his jumping could fall to pieces. But all of these are unknowns, he has yet to prove he can’t compete in a race like this. With those types you want a big price and i get that here. He looks the one ‘interesting’ one in this to my eyes.

In truth I have been led by my stats. Carrying 11-00+ in heavy, in this race, has proved impossible in the last 20 years (11 races on official heavy). The number of placed horses suggests something will do it one year and that may be today. But i can live with that. Those near the top of the weights would have to be nearing G1 class to win this I think. Native River was last year and that was on better ground. I don’t think any of those look that sort yet, but today could be when they ‘arrive’. (Beware The Bear the interesting one on that front). You could make a case for nearly every runner in this race but I have just focused on those carrying less than 11-00. I have been through every runner and have reasons why, at the prices, I have left them. Others at a price that may be worth a mention include Buckhorn Timothy (not sure has class/good enough/is a slogger) and Ask The Weatherman – he could be anything, including not good enough. He looks a slow old boat who may just gallop on. 14s is ok, but I fancied the two above at bigger prices more.

GL with whatever you play on. I won’t be putting you off anything in this really, it looks so open. And in those types of big Saturday races I want a double figure price really.

 

Sandown…

16/1 has lured me in for Buywise. I’m not sure what you have to do to qualify for this race but i’m not sure he has run in a Veteran’s Chase before? That in itself makes him interesting. Three starts ago he was running a decent 4th in a big field Festival handicap, off 7lb higher. He was staying on late as is his want. Were there 4 places here I may have been tempted to go EW but i’ll just stick to on he nose. I think he has a more interesting profile than most in here. He used to relish heavy in his younger days and looks like a stayer now. Unlike many I don’t have a history with this horse. I’m not sure I have every tipped him before. He just always seems to stay on late, too late, never quite getting there. He may do that today. I thought this race could set up for him as there are 5/6 who like to get on with it. I also thought the jockey booking was interesting. It is at least something new for the horse. Williams/Aspell are 4/9,6p when they team up in handicaps. That caught the eye. Some thought may have gone into this booking given his main jocks are at Chepstow for the big one. Aspell rides this track well also, 5/21,8p in the last year. I can see him hunting around out the back and storming up this hill. Or he clouts the odd fence and is never sighted 🙂 There was just something about him that made me want to have a dart at 16s. He is a hold up merchant so you always want a decent price. I’ll prepare for a running on 3rd, never quite getting there but giving me hope over the last! I struggled to make a case for much else.

The other two I looked at fairly hard were Perfect Candidate and Houblon Des Obeaux. Those two could run their races,albeit the former rarely puts two decent runs back to back.

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Welsh Grand National Stats/Trends/Pointers

For those who wish to start early… I am not sure these will help too much but some decent pointers…

20/20 Top 6 LTO

20/20 ran 16-60 days ago (outside of this, 0/60,4p)

19/20 Aged 9 or younger (10+ , 1/84, 11p)

*

10 years (10/190 runners, 40 places)

10/10 Top 6 LTO (7th worse 0/59,9p)

9/10 Aged 6-8 (9+ 1/95,18p.. aged 9 0/55,11p, 10+ 1/40,7p)

9/10 had 1-3 handicap chase wins (9/108,29p,  57% of runners, 90% of winners, 73% of placed horses)

8/10 had 2+ runs in prev 90 days (1 only – 2/75,11p, 40% runners, 20% winners, 25% places horses)

Of some mild interest, and maybe random but some logic… given the place stats it could be there is nothing to it..

-Jockeys that had ridden horse 0-2 times previoulsy: 2/97,16p

-Jockeys had ridden horse 3+ times previously: 8/93, 24p

Horses that had won 3+ times in the going: 5/34,13p, +34 BFSP

2+ places at Chepstow: 6/44,15p, +50

Horse carried 11-11 or 11-12 LTO: 0/39,5p (that could be random, scratching my head for any logic there)

10/10 ran at following tracks LTO: Chep (3/19,7p,+51) / Sandown / Newbury / Chet / Navan

NOTE: When officially ‘heavy’ those carrying 11-00+ on their backs are: 0/50,10p .. the place % is in line with expectations against number of runners, so it could just be luck. But in general it is hard to slog 11-00+ in heavy around here. It’s hard to carry a big weight generally, unless you are on the road to being G1 class.

 

Shortlist? 

if you focused on: Top 6 LTO / Ran 16-60 days ago / 1-3 handicap chase wins (a 9/10 stat) / carrying under 11-00 =

Ask The Weatherman / Buckhorn Timothy / Milansbar (Chep LTO)  / Alfie Spinner (Chep LTO, 3x+ heavy ground winner) / On The Road 

 

*

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Kerry Lee (12/1<)

2.05 Chep- Alfie Spinner / Bishops Road

3.20 Chep – Grey Gold

1.50 Sand – Gino Trail

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.05 Chep- Vintage Clouds (12/1<)

2.05 Chep- Bishops Road (12/1<)

3.20 Chep – Grey Gold (12/1<)

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That’s the lot from me today.

GL with any bets

Josh

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SP2A – 3 month trial: You can find out more/join HERE>>>

I have convinced Ian to run the exclusive trial period for a second time. Plenty of you tried the first one we did (Oct-Dec) and stayed with them. Yt’s not hard to see why.  They are the best all-round tipping service I have ever seen, if not best tipping service full stop. But you can read through the link above and make your own mind up. Some decent comments also. Well worth a dabble! 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • I like Vintage Clouds and On the Road. May add a third as Sky paying 6 places.

    Nick Mazur 05/01/18 5:05 PM Reply


  • Also like those twof plus milansbar. Veterans race like loose chipswich enjoys going right handed.

    reillysmiley 05/01/18 8:10 PM Reply


  • Hi can anyone help, I joined the The new 3 month offer on sp2a with Ian and haven’t had the selections for today’s bets, can anyone confirm if they have received today’s selections

    Philip 06/01/18 10:37 AM Reply


    • Hi Philip, they have been sent out but depends when you joined, as if after a certain time yesterday you’ll be added in from tomorrow. The trial officially starts on Monday.
      Or you have an email address (AOL are buggers) that Ian’s system doesn’t like.
      He will no doubt comment on here, but you can email them…
      sp2auk@gmail.com

      Josh

      Josh 06/01/18 10:40 AM Reply


    • I joined yesterday and received tips this morning.

      Tom 06/01/18 10:51 AM Reply


    • Philip

      Have you now received?, if not please mail me.

      regards

      ian

      Ian SP2A 06/01/18 11:47 AM Reply


      • Yes got the emails and thank you all for the help in resolving the problem

        Philip 06/01/18 11:54 AM Reply


        • No problem, nothing drives me more frustrated than people paying for a service, we providing that service and then due to some spam filter or over gregarious actions at an email provider, tips not being delivered on time.

          What we know about we can usually find a way to resolve, so never suffer in silence….always do our best to resolve.

          Ian SP2A 06/01/18 12:05 PM Reply


  • Hi josh Buy wise is a spring horse and Evan is picking his races with care and pick up some place money along the way
    John

    john 06/01/18 11:17 AM Reply


    • Hi John,

      Hmmm, no he isn’t 🙂 I can only go on what I can see… in handicaps he is 3/6,4p in Jan/Feb (better record than the spring) 4/7,5p in his career, and he is 3/6 on heavy.

      On that basis, I can’t agree that he is a ‘spring horse’

      Now, you may well be right and Evan is plotting another target and getting his mark down. But I can’t use ‘time of year’ or ‘going’ as a reason not to be interested.

      This is his 3rd run after a break and this is quite the pot.. maybe they have changed targets. I thought the jockey booking looked significant in that regard.

      Sadly I don’t have a line to the owner/trainer so I can only go on what I can see, and evaluate his chance in the context of price.

      I’d have thought they would be delighted to get any win out of him now in truth!

      If they plan to pick up place money it means he’ll always have a chance of winning.
      Josh

      Josh 06/01/18 11:30 AM Reply


  • Discount 10 year olds at your peril, if it had been run in December they would have been 9.
    Chase the spud and Bishops Road the pick of them for me, along with the 9 year old (now) Final Nudge.

    Karl Sykes 06/01/18 12:42 PM Reply


    • yep, very good point, albeit the 10 year stats i used do include those that were run in the ‘new year’ – if you like the price I wouldn’t let age put you off in this race. Older horse has won and plenty have run well.
      Depends how heavy it actually it as to impact on weight. GL, someone on here will have the winner haha

      Josh 06/01/18 12:45 PM Reply


  • What a Race that was, i used your template for trends using a modified version Long & Mid & Short term trends resulted 1st and 2nd home also 4th home. Will hopefully rejoin service at some point as ive just restarted betting after a 3 month break.

    jeffrey rees 06/01/18 2:21 PM Reply


    • Sounds like a good result to me Jeffrey, well done!
      Not too much damage done, just shame my two were so poor! Nothing to cheer to most of that race.
      I suppose it was as simple as looking at the winners 2nd in this last year, good prep, booking of James Bowen..easy as that! All in hindsight of course
      Glad you used the info to find the winner, that’s why I post it.

      Josh 06/01/18 2:26 PM Reply


  • Strange for me to watch a big race like that having not spent a minute looking at it, self enforced break from tipping during antibiotic treatment, as a “zombie head” and race analysis are not happy bed-fellows. So no hindsight in this case but those 2 at the front did look like they could have gone round again, and in that regard, as with some many of these slogs in the mud, it’s all about pace and rhythm on the day and being able to capitalise.

    If you think about it, anyone who has done any recreational jogging/ sunday football will know the feeling; some days you just get in to a lovely rhythm and could run for ever, occasionally; “the wind is just not right” and the harder you try the harder it gets.

    Ian SP2A 06/01/18 2:36 PM Reply


  • Buywise a brilliant & inspired selection Josh. Very well done & thanks very much

    John sweeney 06/01/18 3:10 PM Reply


    • The old rogue…well done Josh, great spot; had looked “gone” past 12 months, but anything but finished there!

      Ian SP2A 06/01/18 3:12 PM Reply


  • What a finish , wow.Thanks Josh , like John said ..inspired pick .Lot’s of thanks.

    Michael Manning 06/01/18 3:13 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh! buywise, jumped better than usual and didnt get too far detached, inspired tip well researched

    jamesm 06/01/18 3:18 PM Reply


  • Buywise – Brilliant Josh.

    Nigel 06/01/18 3:24 PM Reply


  • well done josh, great tipping this week

    pendrem 06/01/18 4:10 PM Reply


  • Thanks all, nice when it all goes to plan! That was a joy to watch. Quietly confident through most of that race.

    Josh 06/01/18 4:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh.Nice tip today Buywise,also tipped by Snowy who you mentioned the other week who I have just joined

    Roy Clark 06/01/18 7:26 PM Reply


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