Members Daily Post: 05/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby ABANDONED 

 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 31st Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (32/177, +118.75) (1 point win bets)

None.

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re-cap… Tailor Tom..ah, well it’s nice when a plan comes together. That horse had everything going for it given my ‘notes’ approach and to my eyes was a good bet even if he had been PU. He even drifted which was a pleasant surprise if not somewhat concerning pre-race. Thankfully the market gets it wrong often enough and maybe that drift was down to support for others rather than a reflection of his chance. The ‘magic formula’ lives on… trainer stats qualifier (section 1 + test zone) / unexposed (3 runs under rules..he should improve on recent form one day) / what was he doing different? (or, why should he improve today?)… handicap hurdle debut / stepping up in distance. Supporting evidence? even more trainer stats for the track inc handicap debut, trainer/jockey stats for the track, trainer in red hot form,jockey in form, it ‘looked’ like the horse would appreciate the trip- he had been visibly out-paced in his novice hurdle runs, and had a decent run in a 3m point to point to his name. His ‘form’ on paper was irrelevant to an extent. He had been placed in a weak race on paper, with no other unexposed hot-pots, where every horse seemingly had a question or five. And finally, he was a price (7/1) where you could roll the dice and be wrong, as I am many times. All in all, bar him being the only front runner in the race, Tailor Tom was a perfect example of the method to my madness. He is worth tracking as he could be a dour slogger to follow, especially if/when he sees a fence. He needed every yard of that trip off a slow pace. He can only improve.

An 18% win SR is the highest I have maintained from ‘tipping’ since I started blogging and i’d like to keep it up there. We shall see if I can. Given I generally focus on 6/1, 7/1+ shots, it means if I do maintain 18% win SR then that betting bank will only go one way, over time. Given Hugh Taylor operates at around a 2% ROI, and many a pro punter would be 6-10% maybe, then I could well be in for a proper horror run at some point. My current 67% ROI is in fantasy land at the moment. In truth over the course of 2018 i’d be happy if my ‘tips’ in the members’ posts added +100 to the pot, year after year. I’ll keep chipping away.

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In other news, … you won’t believe it, but that most solid of strategies to date (S4! Jumps + Flat) was 3/4, +10 points on the All-Weather for Thursday. I will go through the AW strategy results at some point. They won’t make for pleasant reading. Atrocious start. But, there may be a glimmer of light with the treble rated on the sand. Best wait for some more evidence. (and we always have Ken for the All-Weather!!) 🙂

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

2.40 –

Interlink (4yo+) G1 40/1 S6 

Courier (m2) I3 14/1

 

Kempton

6.45 – Mossys Lodge (all hncps) H3 11/2

8.15 – Shamsaya (all hncps) 30  9/1

8.45 – Exit Europe (all hncps) ES 10/1 S3

 

Dundalk

5.00 – Geological (4yo+) H3 8/1 

5.30 –

Bluesbreaker (4yo+) H3 9/1

Wild Shot (4yo+) 10/1

7.00 – Ringside Humour (4yo+) ES+ 7/1 S3A

8.00 – Asian Wing (m1) 11/1

 

 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

A few things to flick through below…

 

1.Weekly Article: ‘The Week That Was’ : READ HERE>>>

5 pages and 2080 ‘words’ to get stuck into this week…some handicappers to keep an eye on, a look at Irish trainer jumps horses running in the UK, Jonjo O’Neill’s handicap debutants and a few other bits and pieces.

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2. The Test Zone Results + Double Top Rated

Read HERE>>>

I’ll add this appendix onto the end of the advised strategy results link next week, but in summary…

Test Zone: for the Jumps Angles since Sept 1st to End 2017 :  137 bets / 30 wins / 47 places (inc wins) / +35.5 early|bog

In 2018 to date they are: 3/9,5p, +16

These figures are based on just backing any qualifiers once, even if they hit multiple angles.

These angles are in ‘test’ for a reason, as when I embark on such research I have no idea if they will work in the real world. But, if nothing else, they provide another set of ‘starting points’ for finding bets, with a different sort of research/logic than that found in Section 1.

The breakdown per angle is in the link above and I will keep this updated more regularly.

Double Top Rated: You can see the updated results for the section 1 qualifiers in the link above. Of note may be double top rated qualifiers when there is a H1 included.

So, H1 + G1 or H1 + I1  …. these are now: 33 bets / 13 wins / 17 places/ +13 early|bog

 

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3.The Big Read

The Magic Formula: READ HERE>>>

(that’s the most extensive article I have ever written on my approach to betting, I hope some of you find it useful/interesting! Do let me know) 🙂

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • I don’t have the statistics as I can’t actually find the article I got this from but I have in my little notebook wrote down….

    Hughie Morrison – Any Course – Handicaps – 1m6f+ – Class 3,5 and 6.

    Tomorrow I’ve noticed there’s a runner in the 3.40 at Southwell – Affair.
    0/7 on the AW but is 2/3 over 14f

    I’ll have a little tickle at 10s.

    Matt M 04/01/18 6:36 PM Reply


    • Nice pedigree for f/sand; prior run here was at 8f so irrelevant. Good jockey booked, a keen goer, so too much for rider lto?

      chrisrees 04/01/18 7:42 PM Reply


  • Well there I was having a pretty non eventful day, looking at breakeven at best, then Volevo Lui rocks up at 25/1 early/BOG in our last race of the day. Very nice end to the day even though I only went EW. Hope some of you were on it.
    Two AW meetings at Southwell and Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Southwell
    12.55 Red Snapper 14/1 & Llamrei 7/1
    2.40 Monte Cinq 22/1 (EW) & Crosse Fire 12/1

    Kempton
    5.45 Jazz Affair 7/1
    6.15 New Rich 4/1
    6.45 Deer Song 16/1
    7.45 Top Beak 6/1
    8.45 Plucky Dip 12/1 & Shifting Star 25/1 (EW)
    1pt win each except where noted

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 04/01/18 7:57 PM Reply


    • Top work Ken. Have you got a running total for us? 🙂 I lose track!

      Josh 04/01/18 8:08 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh.

        Since my first tips on 12 Dec, totals are as follows:
        Stakes 203pts
        Profit 49.98pts
        ROI 24.62%
        or £249.90 to £5 stakes based on early/BOG prices.

        I tend to place my bets around 7pm to 8pm as that suits me best.

        I’ve been putting up weekly results on Sat or Sun depending on whether there is AW racing on Sun. As you will know from your S2 strategy, wins (and losers) tend to come in streaks so it needs a decent bankroll and a bit of heart to stick with it. I had 2 days of nothing earlier this week, then three big winning days in a row. Cheers.

        Ken McKenzie 04/01/18 8:19 PM Reply


        • And although you had those couple of blank days, in one of those you had Red Stripes finishing an awfully close 2nd which would have been another 15 points on another day.

          Neil 04/01/18 8:26 PM Reply


          • That’s true Neil but I guess in the long run you should get a few of those that go your way. It’s just hard reminding yourself of that when it goes against you.

            Ken McKenzie 04/01/18 9:56 PM Reply


    • Well done Ken. What are your reasoning’s for selecting each way? Is it that the selection is 25/1 + early price?

      Well done Josh for the notes tip that was backed up by Nick in his selection.

      I managed to find Apalis and Samuel Jackson on thee day as well as 4 losers!

      We press on in the hope that the rain will cease and we can have two jumps meetings a day again.

      martin colwell 04/01/18 9:24 PM Reply


      • Thanks Martin. The stats for 20/1 – 25/1 show there’s not much in it between win only or ew, so my cautious nature made me go for something rather than nothing. The stats will now have moved a bit towards win only but we’re unlikely to get two biggies in two days, aren’t we? (he says nervously!), so I’ve stuck with ew for now. Will review again when I check the stats at the weekend.

        Ken McKenzie 04/01/18 9:50 PM Reply


        • Have you noticed a big difference between win and each way betting on the shorter prices? I’ve generally been a win only punter, but Ian and the S2A folks have converted me a wee bit. That, and the results posted by Josh and a couple of others here, have persuaded me that the shorter losing runs that come with ew betting might be the way to go.

          Neil 04/01/18 10:28 PM Reply


          • Lower than 20/1 the stats are clearly in favour of win only. The lower the odds the more the disparity until you get to 4/1, where the decision is whether to bet or not.

            I rely only on statistics only as I don’t really have enough knowledge of horses to use my own judgement. The likes of Josh and SP2A use stats as their starting point then narrow it down with their own knowledge and experience.

            Time will tell if my approach works but so far it has worked quite well.

            Ken McKenzie 04/01/18 10:49 PM Reply


            • Thank you Ken – I thought Monte Cinq was going to get there and win it (33/1 and 50’s on the exchange), but a decent place payout anyway.

              Lynn 05/01/18 2:51 PM Reply


              • Yes, I did get rather excited by that one. EW play saved the day though.

                Ken McKenzie 05/01/18 2:57 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Ken….got to be in for the ride….keep going and well done. Top stuff,

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 05/01/18 10:52 AM Reply


  • I’m a keen follower Ken keep up the good work

    christopher jones 04/01/18 10:06 PM Reply


    • Thanks Chris.

      Ken McKenzie 04/01/18 10:50 PM Reply


  • Belated Happy New Year to one and all,have been offline for a while,Guiness and betting aren’t good companions so I was having a watching brief through bleary eyes,didn’t miss too much with the weather I think,they managed to keep show mostly going this side of the pond but one would need something stronger than guiness to engage with Tramore,onwards and upwards

    gearoid180468 05/01/18 10:34 AM Reply


  • We are still shipping rain in the south east as we have all week. Sandown must be touch and go unless it stops soon and stays stopped. Chepstow must be under water surely?
    The all weather does not inspire me and the FA Cup is hard to pick until you know the team line ups. I wonder if Big Sam will put out a weak team re Liverpool this evening as he still has to get points in the league to be sure?
    That leaves me with NFL play offs as the Golf has only just got going again and it is in Hawaii, which is a tricky place to play due to the changing winds.
    So I am missing jumps racing and have had a cold all week. I will have to sweat Ken on the all weather today.

    The Magic Formula article was an enjoyable read. One thing I would pick up on was ‘whether to have a bet’? In my experience this is all about value. You weigh up the chance of a horse etc and then you have to set your own price (Tissue) and match it to what is on offer. If you cannot match your tissue then you should not bet. Another aspect of having a bet is whether to back win or each way or place only? I did pick up on this with Ken as it is an area of interest for me. I think most punters go each way when a horse etc is a certain price, say 12/1 + as an example? I think that this type of thinking is flawed as if you do fancy the horse then back it to win regardless of price. This is a mindset issue but I wont go in to that and how the brain works etc.

    Ramble over, good luck.

    martin colwell 05/01/18 11:03 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin. Hope my bets today don’t bring on the shivers lol. Re. Tissue (how very appropriate), you can surely only do that if you have detailed knowledge of horse racing and understand the ability/value of a horse. If, like me, you enjoy the thrill of racing but you have no expert knowledge, then statistics is a way to find value. Hence why I chose 20/1 – 25/1 as the tipping point for win or ew. That’s what the stats told me.

      Ken McKenzie 05/01/18 12:05 PM Reply


      • Creating your own tissue does take some experience and knowledge of the sport definitely and so cannot be for everyone. The point that I was trying to make was that you need to be able to do it to take betting on a sport seriously. The casual punter does not need to worry about such things I guess? I fully understand your approach and was just using it as an example in my ramble. You could add value to a stats approach based upon available price. So say minimum 4/1 as an example rather than the price you make it. I came up with 4/1 as I think the all weather has a larger percentage of chance added to it than turf racing and certainly more than jump racing, which races over long distances.

        martin colwell 05/01/18 12:22 PM Reply


        • Funnily enough 4/1 is my minimum price but that is based on what the stats tell me. I’m sure there is room for many different methods of selecting value horses. The important part is that you make a profit. Good luck.

          Ken McKenzie 05/01/18 12:55 PM Reply


  • Whether to have a bet? …

    Yep i take your points Martin, all very valid… but certainly in the context of taking any betting to the next level..

    -now, i think everyone can try to have a serious/professional mindset when it comes to analysis, but it is all in the context that the majority, inc me, are hobby/recreational bettors… and that does have an impact on approach to odds /whether to bet etc…

    -i am of the firm belief that you do not need to create your own tissues to do very well, at ‘our’ level. I’d like to think various results on here prove that – my free tips, the members ‘notes’ and say Nick’s efforts with running P/L. I don’t think he labours over tissues but I could be wrong! My maximum comfort level is around 20pp, prob 40 max on a horse, outside of my ‘tips’ most of my staking in the 5-10 level on systems etc. I do agree that if you wanted to be a pro gambler then you’d have to do your own tissues. But you don’t need to to make some decent profits/have some fun, at the £2.50 to £20 level.

    I think having the right mindset to analysis/the horse/race and the patience/discipline, with any approach inc systems, is of more importance at the hobby level. That is where many, eventually, fall down. The lack of patience/discipline is the killer. Which in part is often the result of diving in too hard too early.

    I think when it comes to odds, you just need to try and back horses that you think are a bigger price than they should be. That judgement call is so hard, which is why i generally play in the 6/1+ as I know I can be wrong plenty of times. And the shorter you go the more often you have to be right. That point is very subjective and no exact science. Creating your own tissue is still subjective. I do think you can get a feel with experience, while realising you will mess it up plenty.

    Josh

    Josh 05/01/18 1:09 PM Reply


    • Its an interesting point about tissue. Personally I don’t have time to price up every single horse (but would certainly try to if I was doing it full time) but that’s why I look at 9-11 runner races since its easier to dismiss half the field. Also I try and spot really bad favorites in such races since if the favorite is half the price it should be the likelihood most of the other 7-10 runners have been priced wrong. Case in point for my two winners this week. Both had really bad favorites (one was a 4yr old carrying 12st over 3 miles on heavy and the other had his last win 20 starts ago) which should have been at least double their price. Obviously that’s probably doing the tissue job a bit half-arsed but it works for me.

      On the subject of pricing it really depends an a huge number of variables whether to bet e/w but I agree you should never bet systematically just because a horse is a certain. Most of my bets are e/w because I generally look for horses which will be there or thereabouts so they probably have a higher chance of placing than winning but are less likely to fall out the back of the TV to coin Josh’s phrase.

      Nick Mazur 05/01/18 1:40 PM Reply


    • I think I agree with all your points Josh. I am too far down the road for the small stakes fun bets now but can appreciate that view from the behaviours of family and friends. I only set a tissue for horses that come to my eye, some of which are prompted by this site. I am best at prices on football though.

      martin colwell 05/01/18 2:30 PM Reply


  • Did you have a stats Micro for Ben Curtis at Southwell Josh.I did back Kody Ridge 2.40 and Allornothing 3.10,was it a distance micro

    gearoid180468 05/01/18 2:47 PM Reply


    • May have been a jockey CD micro…should be saved in research link somewhere…have never tracked the AW/Jumps ones. Maybe I should! Can have too much going on though. Curtis was one for AW from memory,not sure what distance. I’ll dig it out,and prepare to curse 🙂

      Josh 05/01/18 2:52 PM Reply


  • Ah found it Josh,was 7-7.5f class 2/3/4 which would discount these 2 anyway

    gearoid180468 05/01/18 2:56 PM Reply


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