Members Daily Post: 03/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Musselburgh

2.00 –

Sleep In First (hncp hurdle) 14 30 ES H3 I3 G3 11/2 S3 S4  S1+S5 UP 11/2>8/1 , 12.00 BFSP

Nendrum (hncp hurdle) 30 H3 G1 9/2    WON 9/2>11/4 

2.30 – Full Jack (hncp hurdle) 30 I1 G1 9/2   S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Ludlow

3.50 – Lady Of The Night (NHF) 14,30  18/1 S2  3rd 18/1>6/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 31st Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/176, +110.75) (1 point win bets)

No tips again today.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

12.40 – Stoneboat Bill (m1)  I1 16/1 S6 

1.40 – Viva Verglas (4yo+ + m1) ES I1 13/2 S3 S6

2.40-

Bold Spirit (m1) 13/2

The Great Wall (m1 + m2) ES G1 4/5 

3.40 –

Big Amigo (4yo+, + m1) 11/2

Kafoo (m1) ES G3 13/2 S3

 

Wolverhampton

5.10 – De Little Engine (m1) ES  12/1 S3

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Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.50 Lud – Angle Moon (m2)

 

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide)

1.20 Lud – Etoo Sport

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key updated to end 31st December. 

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies 25th-31st 

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 8/53,13p, +15.4 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 6/45, +7.4 
  • S1 (0/2,0p, -2) S2 (3/20,5p, +20.4) S3 (1/11,3p, -8) S3A (0/8,0p, -8) S4 (3/6,4p, +6) S5 (1/6,1p, +7)

 

NOTES – 1/6, +1.75

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Weekly Article: ‘The Week That Was’ : READ HERE>>>

5 pages and 2080 ‘words’ to get stuck into this week…some handicappers to keep an eye on, a look at Irish trainer jumps horses running in the UK, Jonjo O’Neill’s handicap debutants and a few other bits and pieces.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    Kim’s also got Sea Story in the 3.50.

    Happy New Year to all at RtP

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 02/01/18 6:05 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mike, yep he has… this year’s NHF angle just looks at unraced horses and he ran here a few weeks back, unseating in the process! Jockey bookings suggest Sea Story is more fancied but who knows, Kim was 5/5 with his NHF newbies here before his last runner, now 5/6 in recent years.
      Happy new year to you too,
      Josh

      Josh 02/01/18 6:11 PM Reply


      • aah, so it did, Mistook the u for dirt on the screen lol.

        titus_a_duxass 02/01/18 7:39 PM Reply


  • Southwell 1:40 Vroom is a tad interesting tomorrow at 9-1 currently, not sure of the stats but I remember reading somewhere that when GK applies some form of headgear to a horse for the first time they can shown improvement. Only reason I remember it was because I ignored it and that afternoon a 16-1 winner followed duly unbacked! More research needed but might be worth a look

    Mark 02/01/18 7:00 PM Reply


    • Hi Mark…

      Hmmm, not sure where you read that but I haven’t found much on the Gay Kellaway headgear front, having just had a look…
      last 5 years, horse’s 1st run in headgear….

      93 bets / 9 wins / 27p / +7 SP / +29 BFSP / AE 0.95

      those results skewed by 2 biggies, 20/1+

      broken down by headgear: CP 3/31,10p, Blinkers 3/29,9p , others smaller numbers

      In handicaps, all 1st time headgear, 2/37,14p

      BUT!!

      having been thinking while writing this… and having looked again…

      IF you just focused on 1st time headgear, All-Weather, Class 6

      19 bets / 5 wins / 8 places / +41 SP / +53 BFSP

      In handicaps 0/9,2p, in non handicaps (winners in maiden, claimers, sellers) 5/10,6p, +62 BFSP

      So, there is something there. And it makes logical sense… poor animals in the worst class of racing really- an all-weather class 6 (well,there is C7) – needing to find an edge, 1st run headgear doing the trick.

      Even more so in claimers/sellers if Gay plans to sell a horse – what better advertisement than when they bolt up in first time headgear, probably never to run well again!!

      (as an aside that’s a logical angle i’ll add to the to-do list, 1st time headgear in sellers/claimers. hmmm)

      hope that’s helpful, very micro, but may throw up the odd biggie over time,
      Josh

      Josh 03/01/18 10:27 AM Reply


  • First winner of the year still eludes me but two AW meetings tomorrow to hopefully break my duck. Qualifiers as follows:
    Southwell
    12.40 Stoneboat Bill 14/1
    1.40 Tellovoi 12/1 & Viva Verglas 13/2
    3.10 Athassel
    3.40 Naralsaif 8/1 & Meandmyshadow 9/1

    Wolves
    4.10 Oor Jock 4/1
    4.40 Bush Beauty 11/2
    5.10 Joey’s Destiny 8/1 & Arnarson 9/2
    5.40 Energia Flavio
    6.10 Barbara Villiers 4/1
    6.40 Luv U Whatever 12/1 & Bayston Hill 15/2
    7.10 Ravenhoe 8/1
    1pt Win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 02/01/18 10:44 PM Reply


    • That’s better. Tellovoi goes in at 12’s. Can’t believe he won really. Had to be dragged a furlong just to go to gate then totally missed the break. Stormed through to win by a nose.

      Off and running for 2018.

      Ken McKenzie 03/01/18 1:52 PM Reply


      • Been following you for a couple of weeks Ken well done

        christopher jones 03/01/18 2:04 PM Reply


        • Hope its not been too painful you. Not the best results recently. Hopefully turned a corner.

          Ken McKenzie 03/01/18 2:18 PM Reply


          • lol….Well done Ken.

            Tony Mc.

            tonymc 03/01/18 3:15 PM Reply


    • Meandmyshadow also squeaks home at 9s. Profit for the day guaranteed. Anything else from Wolves is a bonus. Fingers crossed 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 03/01/18 3:51 PM Reply


  • It’s something or nothing really Josh but just pointing out you’ve missed the S3 from the qualifier 2.00 Muss.

    Cheers.

    Matt M 03/01/18 10:07 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, so I have, cheers! yep do always point those out albeit hopefully everyone gets used to the codes in time, but i can make the odd clanger every now and then.

      Josh 03/01/18 10:13 AM Reply


  • Intresting horse 12.40 Southwell general allenby seems to have found its form over 2 miles and still on a good mark last time out raced wide causing it to use itself up to soon. One unknown is the track if it handles it could win this .

    paul bailey 03/01/18 11:52 AM Reply


  • I’m waiting on lady of the night (s2) @14s for a nice bet fingers toes eyes all crossed this is when experience in laying would come in handy

    Aaron Lumsden 03/01/18 3:37 PM Reply


    • GL, i had a nibble at 18s but don’t get your hopes up with these unraced horses! 🙂 This is the track Bailey tends to target with a decent bumper horse/those that are ready first time, but he has another here which Bass is on and a well fancied Hendo fav, so who knows! Given his record here with NHF horses first run, was worth a dabble at that price. I don’t do laying so will leave that to others! Not much point if you are a recreational punter.

      Josh 03/01/18 3:41 PM Reply


  • Ew returns small profit I real got caught up in mikey Hamil deserting the main stable hope

    Aaron Lumsden 03/01/18 3:57 PM Reply


    • hmm, don’t think a case if Mikey deserting, he would have been told which one he was riding and I suspect Bass has ridden both at home – he would have had first choice I think but could have that wrong. But you can’t not back a biggie on that basis.

      Josh 03/01/18 4:03 PM Reply


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