Members Daily Post: 02/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ayr

1.00 – Hartforth (all hncps + m1) 14 25/1 S2 UP

2.10 –

Achill Road Boy (all hncps + m1 + m1) I3 15/2  UP

Calivigny (m1) ES+ H3 7/1 S3A UP

3.10 –

Sky Full Of Stars (m1) I3 G3 15/2  WON 15/2>11/2 

Titian Boy (m2) H3  3/1 UP

 

Ffos Las

Abandoned

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 31st Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/176, +110.75) (1 point win bets)

No tips today. Nothing at the more unexposed end for me to get stuck into and none of the others jump out for tipping purposes.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Newcastle

4.10 – Newmarket Warrior (m1) 9/1

6.10 – Rich Again (all hncps + m1) ES+ I3  7/1  S3A 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key updated to end 31st December. 

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies 25th-31st 

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 8/53,13p, +15.4 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 6/45, +7.4 
  • S1 (0/2,0p, -2) S2 (3/20,5p, +20.4) S3 (1/11,3p, -8) S3A (0/8,0p, -8) S4 (3/6,4p, +6) S5 (1/6,1p, +7)

 

NOTES – 1/6, +1.75

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Well that wasn’t the way I was hoping to start the new year. A few came close but didn’t quite make it across the line first. Tomorrow’s AW racing is at Newcastle. Not the greatest course for my stats so trying a slightly different straregy. Qualifiers as follows:
    3.35 Sir Chauvelin 5/1 & Not So Sleepy 12/1
    4.10 Inaam 11/2 & Ice Royal 9/1
    4.40 Certificate 20/1 (ew) & Dragon Mall 5/1
    6.10 Shamshon 4/1
    6.40 Mother of Dragons 15/2
    1pt win except where noted

    Good luck

    Ken McKenzie 01/01/18 9:41 PM Reply


  • Too Many Chiefs-Ayr 13:00 Well my form has been shocking the past couple of weeks so you may want to stay clear even if I hit a few crossbars. Won over course, ground and distance 2 starts ago before running ok in a class 2 LTO particularly as the track wouldn’t have suited as all form is on left handed flat or slightly undulating tracks and Carlisle is anything but. Is only 4lbs higher and looks to have a solid e/w chance. Trainer is ok form. I also liked the fact that he wasn’t carrying too much weight unlike several of the market principals. The fav could be anything but it’s a really tough ask to have a 4yr old carry 12st over 3 miles on heavy ground and there is no guarantee he will stay.

    Nick Mazur 02/01/18 7:33 AM Reply


    • Well played Nick

      joners 02/01/18 1:08 PM Reply


    • Top class Nick, very well done

      Paul 02/01/18 1:09 PM Reply


    • Form is temporary…. well done.

      Josh 02/01/18 1:10 PM Reply


    • Nice one Nick ur back inform, Too Many Chiefs!!

      Keeps the bank topped up.

      Mike

      mickeydee 02/01/18 1:45 PM Reply


  • Dross day today so no selections from me. Good luck to Ken and anyone else who posts a selection today.

    I like Rock The Kasbah for the Welsh Grand National on Saturday. Currently 10/1 and I think the horse will be suited by conditions, course and distance.

    martin colwell 02/01/18 10:42 AM Reply


    • I dont think the weights are out yet but if the going remains heavy you want to stay clear of anything above 11st so will depend on what they give him.

      Nick Mazur 02/01/18 12:28 PM Reply


      • He will certainly have more than 11 ST. The weights allow less for something to creep in lower down the card nowadays but I take your point.

        martin colwell 02/01/18 12:47 PM Reply


        • Thanks guys. Maybe I should apply the self pity card more often since it seems to do the trick.

          Nick Mazur 02/01/18 1:31 PM Reply


        • Sorry last comment was meant to go at the bottom not replying here.

          Its just not a trend I like to go against in the race Martin. So far on heavy those with 11st+ are 0/46, 10p vs 10/96, 25p for those between 10st8lb and 10st. There was just the one winner at 10st13lb.

          Nick Mazur 02/01/18 1:35 PM Reply


  • Lovely to see you back in the winners enclosure nick class always comes through many thanks for too many chiefs on a miserable Tuesday paul

    Paul bailey 02/01/18 1:13 PM Reply


  • In the weekly results, shouldn’t S4 be 2/6, 4p, +1 ? Norse Light & Hit and Run both won; Jebs Gamble 3rd, Brown Bear UP, Golden Investment UP & Buckle Street 3rd.

    Andy Mackay 02/01/18 3:46 PM Reply


    • Hi Andy,
      I think they are correct, from week 25th-31st, so yesterday’s quals not included…
      I have, winners… Norse L (+4) , Hit and Run (+3), Knocknannus (+2, for G Moore Fontwell…tech + 1.9)
      Losers x 3, Jebbs/Brown B/Golden I

      Josh

      Josh 02/01/18 3:58 PM Reply


      • Ah yes, sorry. I didn’t bother with Knocknannus as it was too low for me, and of course it won!

        Andy Mackay 02/01/18 4:17 PM Reply


        • No worries, usually it’s likely i’ve made an error so always ask! Yep S4 is tricky – probably the one angle where I suspect my own price limits and am a bit more sympathetic to shorter priced ones- it does still seem to find value at the top end so should keep ticking along. But however you play it as long as happy with own progress- with any luck S4 can pull in 75-100 points a year across the board, that would be nice and a decent foundation for everything else. I keep thinking it won’t maintain 40% win SR over jumps but it does keep ticking along. We shall see.

          Josh 02/01/18 4:23 PM Reply


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