Members Daily Post: 31/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Uttoxeter

3.00- Mozo (m1) 14,30 4/1 2nd

 

Warwick

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/175, +111.75) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.10 Warwick – Colt Lightening – 6/1 (gen) PU 5/1

*oh well I can only conclude he’s hated the going there- he has never really looked comfortable. A bit green/pulling early but he was being niggled as they headed out for the final circuit. I can only think it was the going which was the unknown. With any luck he’ll be a bigger price if/when reappearing on better ground! Beaten long before any lack of ability etc. 

One from the test zone today but if you just backed every Lacey qualifier that had this sort of profile you’d do just fine over time. Well, that’s what the evidence suggests so far. This one is unexposed over hurdles and is doing a couple of things different – namely making handicap hurdle debut (trainer 8/25,12p with hncp debutants,+36 – a micro in itself) and the horse moves up in trip by 3f, which is another of Lacey’s successful methods. He drops into a class 5 here and ‘could be anything’ now he goes handicapping. He could just be moderate and his mark needs to come down a few more pounds. Or he has plenty in hand. Heavy ground is an unknown to most in here but he has been pitched into a very weak race on paper. Lacey continues in fine form also, 6/21,10 places in the last 30 days, 4/10,6p the last 14. Fair to say they are going well. He ticks all the boxes here for the ‘magic formula’ and at 6s is a must for me. I get the impression he’ll be winning a weak handicap soon enough (Carlisle run two starts ago looked ‘interesting’ and last race looked decent enough, he kept going at least), possibly on better ground, but i’m guessing there. Price, in the context of his profile/this race, allows the play.

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That’s all for today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.25 Uttox – No Dice (m3) 4/1 UP

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

3.10 War – Colt Lightening 6/1 PU

 

TTP All-Weather

3.20 Ling – Ask The Guru (m2) H3 I1 G3  7/1  S2 S4 S5  UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Videos…

I am back in Liverpool now so will get recording again in the days ahead, for those of you who like such content. As ever, if you have any requests, fire away! Next week I will be completing my ‘magic formula’ article and recording some real examples from weeks gone by. I’ll have plenty of time for ‘through the card’ videos if you are going racing etc.

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I will take a look to see if there are any New Year’s Day big race stats/trends for any handicap hurdles, yet to browse.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • No winners today unfortunately so -7pts for the day. Back to Lingfield tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    11.40 Espresso Freddo 20/1 & La Sioux 9/2
    12.10 Furzig 9/2
    1.15 Berrahri 6/1
    1.45 Mr. Scaramanga 18/1 & Goring 8/1
    2.15 Bernie’s Boy 7/1 & Bridge Builder 5/1
    2.50 Wild Flower 4/1
    3.20 Ask the Guru 11/1

    Good Luck and happy new year to all when it comes.

    Ken McKenzie 30/12/17 7:47 PM Reply


    • Got to agree with the BRIDGE BUILDER L2.15 selection Ken , winner twice over course & distance off of marks 62 and 69 gets dropped to 60 today …. is the handicapper related to the trainer !!!! 🙂 ….looks very generous … a gift perhaps …. im in
      Happy New Year

      joners 31/12/17 12:21 PM Reply


      • Two winners so far and profit for the day guaranteed. Another one or two to finish the year would be nice or is that just being greedy? 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 31/12/17 2:00 PM Reply


    • I guess I was being too greedy but 2 winners on the day gave us 4.5pts profit for the day and nice way to end the year.

      Results for w/c 26 December
      Staked 40pts, Profit 6.13pts, ROI 15.32%

      Overall since I started tipping on 12 Dec
      Staked 155pts, Profit 32.53pts, ROI 20.98% or £162.63 to £5 stakes.

      I hope to have tomorrow’s qualifiers out tonight but it may be in the morning.

      Happy new year to all on R2P.

      Ken

      Ken McKenzie 31/12/17 3:38 PM Reply


  • Spenvia 3:45 at Warwick PP are 100/1 whilst others are 25s or less
    Huge discrepancies across the bookies

    Darren 30/12/17 8:03 PM Reply


    • 3:40 i mean

      Darren 30/12/17 8:04 PM Reply


  • Westy couldn’t quite reel in one of the few horses who stay as well as he can but I was always fairly confident he was going to go close and there was 19 lengths back to the 3rd today. I like Grandad’s Horse in the 13:00 at Warwick. I personally have gone 1pt e/w but given price has gone would now go 1.5pt win. Ran a very good race 2 starts ago behind two solid yardsticks. The winner has since gone close in a class 2 and the runner up was 3rd in a better class 3 chase at Newbury today. The horse was just behind those two. I would ignore the run last time given he didn’t have conditions to suit. Drops into a class 4 off 2 lbs lower and Bastyan takes off a further 5 lbs. All of the trainers horses are running well with 2 winners and 2 2nds from her last runners and all bar a 50/1 were placed no worse than 4th. The horse is running in his first ever class 4 handicap (5/9, 7p in class 3 handicaps and 4/6, 6p in class 4s). Looks to have a great chance.

    Nick Mazur 30/12/17 9:39 PM Reply


    • I had the winner, Emperors Choice, but was really worried by your selection as it loomed up. However as we see every day bot all horses quicken at the business end.

      Firstly Happy New Year to Josh and Nick and everyone else. I think that 2018 will be even better on the site as 2017, as things have significantly improved in the year gone.

      I would appreciate any posts for tomorrow as early as possible and preferably today as I am at a party this evening (I am going as Winnie The Pooh and the wife is Princess Fiona) and I start a diet tomorrow and so there may be excess this evening which may affect performance tomorrow.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 31/12/17 1:06 PM Reply


  • One of the tipping sites put him up as there ew banker for tomorrow Nick as you said the price is gone so I looked elsewhere and most of these Longsdon cast offs seem to be carrying his bad form with them and I’m waiting for him to give snow leopardess a run and tought maybe she’s isolated untill I discovered he ran her in auteille about 6 weeks ago and hacked up

    Aaron Lumsden 30/12/17 11:41 PM Reply


  • I mentioned Back to the Thatch yesterday who was withdrawn and races tomorrow at Uttoxeter in the 2.25 instead. Paddy was booked yesterday but interestingly lines up on FOB’s No Dice in the same race instead. Given that Paddy probably had the choice of the two, you would think he thinks ND is a more likely winner. ND is having its first run for FOB and is also on handicap debut so it wouldn’t be a surprise if it bolts in for a flying FOB string up against somewhat mediocre opposition. 7/2 doesn’t have great appeal however but in a 5 runner race is probably fair.

    JamesP 30/12/17 11:44 PM Reply


    • Also thrown a fiver at The Model County in the 2.05 at Warwick. 2/2 at the track, has won on heavy and won a class 4 here (albeit a slightly weaker c4). Pulled up LTO, but it was it’s first run of the season so i’m prepared to excuse that run as a pipe opener for its return in optimal conditions today

      JamesP 31/12/17 9:27 AM Reply


  • looks like i might get a footy and racing afternoon so had a quick look at the Punchestown card and came up with these 3, bearing in mind i know sod all about racing in Ireland just a 50p ew patent for a bit of fun.
    1-05. Hard Bought 12-1
    2-10. Warnaq 9-1
    2-40 Hareth 7-1

    martin whittle 31/12/17 7:26 AM Reply


    • Hareth was interesting for me too Martin, i have ended up siding with Miles to Memphis, but i do have one concern with my selection…his hurdling.

      Jack 31/12/17 11:11 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh and all

    Would just like to say, a very Happy New Year to you all and may the profits continue through 2018 🙂

    Gavin 31/12/17 9:49 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh and fellow sufferers….Happy New Year to you all and your familie’s…
    And a special get well soon to Ian at sp2a.

    BOL to you all…Have a latge.!!

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 31/12/17 11:23 AM Reply


    • Echo your sentiments too Tony regarding Ian, hope he recovers very quickly, and also a happy new year to all of you, and your families, fantastic site Josh, keep up the good work
      Best wishes, and good luck all
      Pete

      halstea 31/12/17 2:42 PM Reply


      • Yes, echo the sentiments for Ian at SP2A . Speedy recovery and Happy and prosperous New Year to him and his family.
        Hope we all have a happy and prosperous New Year also, all the best, from Me and My Family!

        Stewart 31/12/17 3:01 PM Reply


  • Here’s hoping we all have a happy,healthy and prosperous new year.

    martin whittle 31/12/17 4:59 PM Reply


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