Members Daily Post: 30/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Haydock

2.10 –

Belmount (m1+m1) I3 20/1 S2 S5 UP

Vieux Lille (m2) 12/1 S2 

 

Newbury 

1.50 – Dynamite Dollars (m1). I3 13/2  UP

2.25 –

Grand Vision (hncp chase) H3 10/1 S2 2nd 16/1 

Vieux Lille (m1+ m2) ES G3 11/1 S1 S2 S3 UP

3.35 – Avos Gardes (nov hncp chase) I3 G3 9/2  UP

 

Taunton

2.00 – Moabit (m2) H3 7/2 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/175, +111.75) (1 point win bets)

None. I’ll be perfectly honest and say that last night I may have had one too many shandies and may be typing this after around 4 hours sleep. My head isn’t in a fit state to do any analysis justice. Apologies.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1<)

2.45 Had – Federici (m1+m3) UP

R Hobson (33/1<)

3.00 News- Dame Rose PU

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.00 News – Poetic Rhythm WON 3/1

 

TTP All-Weather

No idea… if you know of any qualifiers then please do post in the comments.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

none.

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • I put a post up on the free post a couple of days ago stating i thought Faugheen was a very good hurdler but his form of what he has beaten didnt warrant this superstar status. I certainly thought he would win today and just hope he can get back to his best at Cheltenham in March. However,even at his very best i think he would struggle with ‘Buveir’ as i dont believe he has beaten anything near as good as him. At ten in March i think his chances are very slim and expect him to be retired. A sad way for a great horse to finish.

    Roddo 29/12/17 3:43 PM Reply


    • After what happened yesterday I don’t think its ever sad if a horse ends his or her career safe and sound.

      Nick Mazur 29/12/17 4:55 PM Reply


    • Roddo,

      Can you explain to me, how you work out that Faugheen hasn’t beat anything like BDA….yet BDA clearly has beaten enough or shown you enough to suggest he is better than Faugheen?

      Jack 30/12/17 12:16 AM Reply


      • Its all about opinions and interpretation of form Jack. Buveir is only six and on his third race over hurdles ran 3rd in a very hot Supreme btn 8.5 lengths behind Altior( a future multiple grade 1 winner). Behind him that day was Tombstone,Charbel,Supasundae,Petit Mouchoir and Belshill. Compare that to Faugheens win in The Neptune where he bt 150 rated horses in Ballyalton and Rathvinden and a 130 horse Kilala Quay in 4th. You can only beat whats aginst you.
        Buveirs next race at Aintree he beat Petit Mouchoir a neck and Limini 8 lengths. He was then sent novice chasing the following season and after two wins he reverted to hurdles as Hendo thought he only had to bt Faugheen to win the Champion. Unfortunately Faugheen got injured so Buveir won an ordinary champion beating My Tent,Footpad and The New one trailed behind btn 10 1/2lengths. This season Buveir has won two hurdle races (fighting fifth and Xmas hurdle) hardly coming out of second gear.
        Faugheen in my opinion has had very little to beat in his career. Two xmas hurdles beating The New One(never won a grade one) An Ascot hurdle where he beat Blue Fashion(another 150 hurdler) . In the champion he beat Arctic Fire 1.5 lengths . Arctic, another fragile horse won the County Hurdle off 158 a couple of years later. His one outstanding piece of form and if he could ever repeat this then i think he would win 2018 champion was when he thrashed Arctic Fire and Nichols Canyon 15 and 13 lengths. The slight problem with that form is Arctic got injured in it and Nichols needed 3 miles.
        Buveir has only ran in nine hurdle races and to me at six has a lot of improvement in him. He is a fluent hurdler which Faugheen has never been. Both Faugheen and Buveir are great hurdlers but neither yet have proved to be superstars like some of the greats of the past. Hope that helps Jack but it is only my opinion and i could well have got it very wrong.

        Roddo 30/12/17 9:42 AM Reply


  • Thats a tragic way to end Nick

    Roddo 29/12/17 5:48 PM Reply


    • What about the guy I posted about a few weeks ago who had £20K at 3/1 on Buvier Dair in the belief that Faugheen would not make it? I think Faugheen did beat some good horses and was a top horse. Unfortunately when you get a bad injury, be it a racehorse or a footballer, you are never the same again.

      martin colwell 30/12/17 11:36 AM Reply


  • West Of The Edge Haydock Saturday 14:10 1.5pt e/w-Well I’ve probably just jinxed my horse and this is very much my thoughts as opposed to the stable’s but I think Westy has a cracking chance tomorrow and with a clear round I would be disappointed if he finished outside the first 3. Ignore the last run where the ground was near enough good and the trip too short. He needs a proper trip in a prop slog and he will get that tomorrow. Very few of these have proven to handle this sort of trip on this sort of ground and the two that have are in the twilight of their careers.

    Nick Mazur 29/12/17 5:55 PM Reply


    • Have also had a bet on the following:
      Rapid Rise Lingfield 12:35 1pt e/w (try and get 4 places)
      Barye Lingfield 14:55 1.5pt win

      Finally have chucked £5 e/w on Stellarta in the 12:00 at Lingfield and Tanit River in the 14:25 at Newbury

      Nick Mazur 30/12/17 11:15 AM Reply


    • Can’t fault him for that. Looked to be travelling much better 3 out than the winner but I am afraid speed has never been his forte and couldn’t quite reel the winner in. Main thing he is back safe after what happened to poor Lessons in Milan.

      Nick Mazur 30/12/17 2:24 PM Reply


  • I don’t think I have ever seen as much activity before a race then that paticular one Nick I wonder is the chance of the meeting going ahead anything to do with it markets are very hard to get a handle on this evening with horses doubly entered

    Aaron Lumsden 29/12/17 11:21 PM Reply


    • If Haydock gets half the rain Dublin is getting tonight it’ll be off!

      Joe H 30/12/17 12:18 AM Reply


  • Bit late tonight. Been out on the piss, so let’s hope I get it right 🙂
    A nice 10/1 winner at BOG/SP gave us an 8pt profit for the day. Lingfield tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    12.00 Zac Brown 20/1 & Tropics 9/2
    12.35 Binky Blue 7/1 & Critical Thinking 7/1
    1.45 Runaiocht 13/2
    2.20 Baby Gal 9/2
    3.30 Unit of Assessment 6/1
    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 30/12/17 12:04 AM Reply


  • Had a few quid on Back to the Thatch in the 2.25 at Newbury. Paddy takes the ride and he’s won 2 from last 3 rides with the trainer. Horse is on Hcp debut and been upped significantly in trip. Also has top speed rating on AATR. All in all enough to have a play at 12/1

    JamesP 30/12/17 8:53 AM Reply


    • N/R

      JamesP 30/12/17 9:33 AM Reply


    • NR
      Runs 225U tomorrow.

      chrisrees 30/12/17 9:37 AM Reply


  • Seasons Greetings to Josh and all the members who make it such a great forum. I am on West Of The Edge, thanks, Nick and others who give their tips and thoughts and share with us all.

    roybedford 30/12/17 9:57 AM Reply


  • TTP All-Weather

    No idea… if you know of any qualifiers then please do post in the comments.

    Not sure why but that made me laugh. I could just imagine Josh sat with his head in his hands wondering what to do about this hangover. Hope it was a good night Josh also I hope everyone enjoyed Xmas and all the best to everyone for the new year. I enjoy reading all the comments on here. Here’s to a profitable 2018.

    Matt M 30/12/17 11:13 AM Reply


    • Ha well I try and bring a bit of humour to proceedings! Yep it was a decent time night out thanks. I’m not in great shape! The worst thing to look at with a hangover is a computer screed/racecards/stats…well my head couldn’t cope. I try and avoid Friday nights out for obvious reasons but was unavoidable this time!
      Josh

      Josh 30/12/17 2:41 PM Reply


  • intresting horse today 3.30 lingfield park ZULU trained by rod millman the stable have taken their time with this one and this is its first attempt at 1m 2f with oisin murphy booked the step up in trip looks in its favour with the patience shown by the trainer this might be rewarded with a good run

    paul bailey 30/12/17 1:23 PM Reply


  • What does everyone think about the racing on offer over in Ireland during the Christmas period, compared to our own festive showing.
    Seems to me that they have more prize money per race, which in turn brings better fields and more each way prospects etc…
    I haven`t really liked it in the past ,(always thought it was too one sided with the gigginstown / McManus bandwagon).
    Suppose now I`m getting older I think I am actually warming to it!
    Do believe we need a mid season championship meeting though, Leopardstown this week has been very exciting.
    Maybe move the Cheltenham new year meeting back a bit more and/or add a few more days to it…Maybe once Kempton finally succumbs to the developers?
    What does everyone else think?

    Stewart 30/12/17 3:37 PM Reply


  • All the best to everyone in the New Year; hopefully more success to follow with selections
    I quite enjoy the New Year’s Day meeting at Chelters & no need to put it back imo
    They do have trials day towards the end of January

    Andrew Gilmore 30/12/17 3:52 PM Reply


  • Been out all day and just watched todays racing – Lessons in Milan as bad a fall as I’ve seen in the 40 years I’ve followed the Sport – RIP. It reminds you what a tough sport it is that we love and you have to take the lows and hope that the highs compensate .

    finalflight 30/12/17 10:43 PM Reply


  • I mentioned Back to the Thatch yesterday who was withdrawn and races tomorrow at Uttoxeter in the 2.25 instead. Paddy was booked yesterday but interestingly lines up on FOB’s No Dice in the same race instead. Given that Paddy probably had the choice of the two, you would think he thinks ND is a more likely winner. ND is having its first run for FOB and is also on handicap debut so it wouldn’t be a surprise if it bolts in for a flying FOB string up against somewhat mediocre opposition. 7/2 doesn’t have great appeal however but in a 5 runner race is probably fair.

    Jamesp 30/12/17 11:42 PM Reply


Post A Reply