Members Daily Post: 29/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Doncaster ABANDONED! 

 

Bonus – Ireland 

3.15 Limerick – Off You Go (hncp hurdle) H3 10/11

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/175, +111.75) (1 point win bets)

No ‘tips’ today.

Damn, well a shame Paddling wasn’t a bigger price yesterday morning. At 11/4 I was happy to leave, his SP of 4/1 was a bit more tempting but knowing me I’d have still dodged tipping him at that price. (and that is an area I need to work on) But again, he had that profile which points to many winners – this was his 4th run over fences, his 4th handicap chase run. Unexposed. He ran well enough when I tipped him LTO at 14s, staying on for a distant 3rd. Today he moved up in trip by 3f and dropped in class, into a weak C5. We knew he was fit, that he could jump and that he could handle the track. He ran LTO like a horse that wanted further, doing his best work late, going forward at the line. The yard was going ok and there was a jockey change, with one of Hammond’s regular riders taking over, and taking off 5lb. The stars aligned and in the end he won like an odds on shot. Hopefully some of you picked him out and had a go. Another one for the ‘magic formula’ idea.

Not much today really… Passing Call is too short for me, tipping wise- he is young, unexposed and makes handicap hurdle debut. King is 1/7 at Donny with such types here in last 5 years. Given how he has been running I’d like to see a move up in trip but he is a bit like that Jonjo winner in that he may appreciate running at Donny which is a more galloping track. He has a long straight to get rolling. Hopefully he can win for S4 in what looks an open enough race. In the 3.40 – well Beggars Cross is an enigma – he gets a tongue tie here. I do wonder if he just has to go LH over fences. That isn’t conclusive but there is a chance he just prefers going this way round. I’m not sure he likes it soft either but that isn’t conclusive and I did have a small nibble from my system bank- not an overly confident one but 9s/10s was worth a dart. I suspect the handicapper has him and/or he may not like soft, so I haven’t gone mad on him! Interesting enough that they are running him back at a track he has won at and Jonjo’s may be going better than they were. He is only 2/9 over fences. Anyway, if you’re a S1, S2 or S5 follower there was no glaring reason not to have a go, in the context of his price.

 

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Doncaster ‘through the card notes’ 

Meeting Abandoned 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All Weather

Southwell

3.30 – Dream Magic (m1) ES I1 G3

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated ASAP

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 2/48,10p, -39.5 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 2/30, -20.5 
  • S1 (0/2,0p, -2) S2 (0/22,7p, -22) S3 (0/10,0p, -10) S3A (1/5,1p, +1) S4 (1/5,1p, -2.5) S5 (0/4,1p,-4)

 

NOTES – 1/8, -2.4

 

Thoughts… well last week was rather poor again… the one angle that is really concerning and is neatly perched on the naughty step is S3 (Elite Squad) – that had a very good start but has had a horribly run. Really poor. And because it isn’t based on any ratings pointers, or like S2 has a really big sample size, it’s hard to be as confident moving forwards. Maybe it will turn around, or, it could be that approach isn’t valid. Gulp.  S3A is doing ok and focussing on angles with a more solid stats base. 

Not to sound like a broken record but as I have said before, if you want a narrow focus for a systematic approach then I think S4 is a must. What with how that performed over the flat, and the fact it’s based on three different ratings sets, it should just keep ticking long, over time. As should S1, and hopefully S5. As always a case of having an adequate bank (at least 150-200 points) and starting small, £2-£2.50s, with any systematic approach you take. With any luck many of you get enjoyment from trying to use section 1/test zone as a starting point (the magic formula as one idea) and using your own subjective judgement to pick which ones to back etc. You’ll nail that approach in time, if you like the idea of ‘becoming your own expert’. 

In the last two day’s ‘backing all strategy qualifiers just once’ has won +24 points and shows how quickly things can change when you play big odds. Hopefully a few more nice priced winners are on their way across the strategies. 

On we go. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • I was looking at the all weather results for Thursday and i saw that Joseph O’Brien won an egg and spoon race at 9/2 SP at Lingfield. Does anyone have any thoughts on backing Irish trained horses on UK all weather as a system? Has anyone tried it previously?

    martin colwell 28/12/17 8:03 PM Reply


    • I think Matt at Geegeez looked at Irish trainer UK runners and there were some profitable angles,mainly over jumps. But I think all were profitable blind. I need something to look at for next research article so I’ll add it to the list!

      Josh 28/12/17 8:11 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin GeeGee’s did have a system…but not as expected…Jumps were not a success, but flat horses were, including aw….I have the criteria somewhere i’ll dig it out…It certainly wasn’t complicated.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 28/12/17 9:10 PM Reply


  • Hi Martin….Just checked…Jumps…not profitable.

    Flat.. Turf or AW….
    Trained in Ireland and had it’s last race in ireland.
    20/1 or under.

    The AW is slightly in the minus, but if applying early betting…it moves into profit easily.

    Tony mc.
    His results are from a 10 year period.

    tonymc 28/12/17 9:17 PM Reply


    • Many thanks Tony. I had a thought that the Irish may becoming more aware of having a go on UK All Weather for some reason? Hence it may become more regular? I noticed that a few had been to Newcastle? I will give it a watching brief in 2018 and report back.

      martin colwell 28/12/17 9:40 PM Reply


  • sorry to be a pest but a bit of advice would be welcome, this year i’ve only really been playing with my betting but because of profits{thanks Josh and a few from Nick and some others} and not having to withdraw any money from accounts it means i can start the new year with £2,000 {i started last year with £200} to split between accounts. obviously i’m going to carry on with r2p ratings pointers as it has been my most profitable bank and i have signed up for a further 3 months with sp2a, very impressed with Ian and his team, still a bit unsure about Snowy . don’t really want to have more than 3 banks and my idea so far is to go £800 betfair for r2p, £800 skybet for sp2a and £400 WH for anything else including my own selections. that would mean my max bet on r2p selections being £12 for G1,H1,I1 And on a sliding scale down to £3. with the sp2a selections i was thinking £15 a point and just fun stakes of £2 win £1 ew on the rest. your opinions of if i’m going in the right direction or not would be greatly appreciated . thanks in advance and a happy and profitable New Year to you all.

    martin whittle 28/12/17 9:22 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin…
      1. You have your own unique approach with the ratings pointers (outside of any adevised strategies you may follow).. and if that has worked for 2017 there isn’t any logical reason why they would change…unless the approach of the ratings sets change but I don’t think they will. They are a constant. So,if you’re happy with how that’s going then you have to stick to that approach.
      2. SP2A are the best ‘race adviser’ service I have ever come across to date,esp with daily tips during week. It is more than just the results but to SP it’s mad. And based on sensible level staking. But Ian’s customer service ethos and honesty/approach is as important to me. I think if you like systems (your ratings approach) + your own thoughts, you don’t really want to follow more than one tipster… as that is 3 approaches and in my mind is plenty but everyone is different… people who ‘just’ want to follow tipsters are in most likely hood not members here as that isno what we do. The notes are an element but it’s meant to be more than that.
      3. A question then of how you follow other content on here. S4 seems as solid as they come on evidence to date but time will tell,as do the other ratings pointers approaches and the likes of S1 + S5 aren’t too stressful,even when on a poor run.

      I’d only ask that any further discussion of other services is done privately, for multiple reasons 🙂

      Josh 28/12/17 9:46 PM Reply


    • Well done Martin;

      My advice would be to take split your 2000 into 2,a reserve bank if you like.a ten fold bank increase is some achievement.but when you ramp up stakes over a short period the downturns can be horrific and can put you back where you started rapidly,oh and secondly take out some money to spend on a pair of shoes,jacket,shirt,whatever.the nature of internet accounts is that its just a number,a shiny pair of shoes is something you can touch,smell and feel

      gearoid180468 28/12/17 11:04 PM Reply


      • I think really you want your bank to be just that – money in reserve that you can spread around the various bookmakers. It doesn’t make any sense to me, unless you’re massively limited by every other bookie, to split your pot between WH, BF and Sky. If you can shop around for prices, even if that means depositing a tenner at a time with whichever bookie has slightly better terms, then I think it’ll make a noticeable differenfe to your profit.

        Neil 29/12/17 12:29 AM Reply


    • thanks for comments, just a quick reply to some points, this year i’ve had 3 “free” days out to beverley,ripon,wetherby and a new motorbike jacket so i’m already enjoying my good luck. my biggest problem is time especially in the mornings as me and the wife are carers for elderly parents so multiple accounts,chasing odds etc is just too time consuming and the way i’m thinking of setting up i admit is probably more for convenience than anything else, i do have 3 other accounts with a bit of shrapnel in Ladbrokes,Betdaq and Betbright but have been thrown off PP and B365. i am much quicker to reduce than increase stakes keeping below 2% of bank and never increasing until bank doubles.
      all the best…..Martin

      martin whittle 29/12/17 8:03 AM Reply


      • Do use the exchanges by posting up your own odds and see if you get a match. You can post up the night before and then check the next day when you have time for any matches and then adjust if you wish to or stick. I would always have a few online accounts and spread it around. It appears that 2019 will be your ‘year two’ and so I would keep stakes the same for another year and see where you are at the end of 2018. I spent 3 years building a significant pot. Good luck.

        martin colwell 29/12/17 9:00 AM Reply


  • No winners today so -4pts. Southwell tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    1.50 Ruler of the Nile 13/2 & Wordiness 8/1
    2.25 Foolad 6/1
    1pt win each.

    Good luck

    Ken McKenzie 28/12/17 11:16 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken, I noticed that you had had a few long price selections since you have been posting without any of them winning (this is from memory). A thought may be to limit selections to 10/1 or less etc?

      Good luck today.

      martin colwell 29/12/17 9:02 AM Reply


      • Hi Martin,

        My current range is between 4/1 & 25/1. The stats continue to support this range. In testing and since going live there have been a number of winners between 10 and 25/1 so not looking to lower the odds yet, as one or two high odds winners makes up for 10 or more losers. Not saying that it won’t change over time and I have tweaked a few things recently but I continue to follow the stats.

        Ken McKenzie 29/12/17 12:57 PM Reply


        • Nice 10/1 SP winner Ken. I did say 10/1 max previously but you are likely right to stick with 25/1 max so ignore me.

          martin colwell 29/12/17 2:30 PM Reply


    • Nice one Ken….The drift helped,,,, 10s was very nice thanks!!!
      Normal conditions returned ….lol….

      WellDone Ken.

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 29/12/17 3:07 PM Reply


      • Thanks folks. I have made a couple of tweaks recently which unfortunately missed out on 12/1 and 8/1 winners. It’s always tempting to narrow down to find a more targeted strategy but in the process you forget about the long game. Think I’ll go back to original strategy.

        Cheers

        Ken

        Ken McKenzie 29/12/17 10:46 PM Reply


  • Morning all,
    Southwell 3.30 MANGATA. Looks a massive price when you see trainer
    / jockey strike rate. Although I believe they go off at much shorter prices than this. Hoping money comes.

    GL all

    jarrodholmes68 29/12/17 9:26 AM Reply


  • just one bet today i’m having a small ew on Gracemount 1-20 Leop upped in class but still plenty of room for improvement been running well in lower grades and couldn’t resist @20-1.

    martin whittle 29/12/17 12:06 PM Reply


  • Josh just read your write up in the notes about not tipping Paddling because of the price even though it had the relevant profile,for me if a horse wins at 2/1 then that is a 100% return.
    I have a cash ISA which since the interest rate rise is now paying a whooping 1.40%
    Maybe look at 2/1 to 5/2 as the minimum price if meeting the profile,also bookmakers used to work on 2% some years ago,do not know the current percentage they work on today,but would imagine that it is higher than 2%.

    colin leafe 29/12/17 1:49 PM Reply


    • Colin, cash in that ISA and get into Air Freight, Water and Solar Power for future proof investments. Also back Millwall for the FA Cup (‘Joke’).

      martin colwell 29/12/17 2:33 PM Reply


      • Martin
        The instant cash ISA is my emergency money that i have access when if needed
        will not mention Derby v Millwall game woops just have ha ha
        Joe Ledley made all the difference for us played 15 games and he has not lost in the Derby shirt missed one game since his arrival which they lost to Reading.what a freebie worth his weight in gold to the club.
        Will put up the golf on Tuesday.
        Cheers
        Colin

        colin leafe 29/12/17 3:04 PM Reply


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