Members Daily Post: 27/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby 

2.05 – Duke of Navan (all hncps) 14, 30 G3 5/2 2nd 9/2

3.15 –

Final Fling (all hncps) 30 H3 I3 12/1 S2 S5 WON 12/1> 10/ 1

Pineapple Crush (m1) 12/1 S2 UP

 

ChepstowAbandoned 

 

 

Kempton

3.05 – Brandon Hill (m1) G1 3/1 UP

3.40 –

Kayf Grace (m1 + m2) 14, 30  11/2 WON 11/2>11/4 (R4) 

Demon D’Aunou (m2) H1 G1 5/1 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/174, +112.75) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.15 Weth – Pineapple Crush – 12/1 (Bet365/Lad/BetF) 11/1 (gen)

 

Similar reasons to yesterday’s missed winner from the same yard – this is the mares first run for the yard and the hope is she may improve for the switch. She is also unexposed in handicap hurdles (this her third run) and is doing something different- well other than the trainer switch she is moving up in trip to 3 miles. She is related to s decent staying chaser and it could be the making of her. She also now runs at a much more galloping/conventional track having been racing at Cartmel. It doesn’t look like she took to chasing the last twice and hopefully the return to hurdles sparks her up. This is one of the trainer’s target tracks I think and hopefully he has her spot on here. The ground is an unknown built into the price for me. We are taking fitness on trust, but his record of 60+ day horses over this distance in handicaps is decent enough, and in hurdles. While I can live with missing his 16/1 winner yesterday it will still irk me, and I was too dismissive of the fitness factor also. The jockey situation is interesting- Downson has a decent enough record on Kirby’s so no concerns on that front (could be owner related)- but Adam Nichol has ridden the horse before for his old trainer and rides plenty of Kirby. I’m not sure if he has first refusal on Rose Dobbin’s horses or what the relationship is – but that does make Final Fling of interest – and given he is a qualifier on a couple of strategies I’ve had something on him also. He is a bit less exposed but returns to hurdles here and if running up to his more recent Hexham form, he would be in the mix. Flemerina stood out on geegeez Instant Expert tab also, and may appreciate the return to soft. He was the only one to stand out which suggests this could be an open enough/mediocre race that is there for the taking. There are no unexposed hotspots from big yards in it, 5/1 the field.

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Elsewhere… well the two in the 3.40 have solid chances, but are both under 6/1 in a competitive enough race on paper, and I know if I tip one of them the other will bolt up. They are both unexposed making handicap hurdle debut. No trip moves though but I’m intrigued to see how Jonjo’s goes. I’d need to check the stats but he doesn’t have many novice/maiden hurdle winners, suggesting those that do win them/place (rather than saved for handicaps!) could be quite smart. Kayf Grace really needs to settle better but if she does she may bolt up too. Very smart bumper form. Jonjo’s is at least ‘double top rated’ – I’ll dig out those stats again from an update a few weeks back but they do well enough, and even more so when it is a H1 + a speed rating (G1/I1).

Brandon Hill- well you know me and my price dilemmas. 3s seems ok- were he treble rated (s4) I would back him at that price. He looks sure to get an easy lead here and Tom George seems to be finding some more consistent form having been very quiet. If he needed his last run- he ran as such – he could bolt up here and make 3s look a massive price. George has won this race a couple of times recently and this could well have been the plan – well, I suspect it has been. If you have a decent jumper who can make all, you’d look to find them a race at Kempton.

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That’s the lot for today.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Wolvs

1.45 – Cruisetothelimit (m1) ES I3 G1 9/1  S2 S3 S6 

3.55 – Daisy Bere (3yo+) ES I3 8/1. S3

5.25 – Gabrial The Terror (m1) 14/1

 

D McCain (14/1<)

2.40 Weth – Same Circus  Evens

 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

12.30 Weth – Going Gold 9/2 UP

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Re cap-

Ah well I would have taken the results on Boxing Day before the first race. 1/4, +3.75 was solid enough on the ‘tips’ and sadly I couldn’t add to the early win. Well done to Norman for picking that one out at 16s a couple of days ago.

S4 had a decent enough day of it and they just seem to tick along – they are very good at finding value at the top end of the market also 2/1< . In recent days there have been 6/4>11/10 and 15/8>5/4 winners. If S4 can continue to tick along at 30-40% win SR (or even 25%, I see no reason logically why it shouldn’t continue) hopefully it can pull in 60-100 points a year, across both codes. At £5 per point that pays for subs, leaves you with a bit left over, and with any luck ensures you have a solid foundation with which to attack/ponder/deliberate/test/absorb all the other content/comments etc. Despite the odd wobble, which is to be expected, my ‘Notes’ total isn’t too bad either – although that will dip, that ROI isn’t sustainable but I will try.

The Magic Formula – well yet more evidence that it works. There was one winner that got away from Section 1 – Jonjo’s handicap debutant, Cloth Cap, at Huntingdon. That was an error at 11s, but is said with hindsight. He was lightly raced and making handicap hurdle debut. Jonjo is only 5/85 with such types in the last 2 years, but 2/8 at Huntingdon in the last 5 and on that basis alone was probably worth a poke. He moved up in class from his C5 maiden hurdle and there was no distance move. Nor a ratings pointer to spur me into action. Had there been ether of the latter two I’d have had a go. I didn’t have a penny on. If you picked him out then well done, S2 backers would have got stuck in hopefully. He ran at a more galloping track here and knowing Jonjo’s yard there was every chance he was out of form when the horse last ran! Or they trained him hard for this handicap debut which is more likely. I think the track and racing in a more moderate race helped. He was there to tip, I didn’t. I wondered why McLernon came here and I backed the wrong one. He’d have another winner for Honeyball also! Brilliant and rather typical! Still, that happens. More positives than negatives moving forwards. There is gold in these unexposed horses that qualify against some of my trainer angles….

Kimberlite Candy would be another one…I hope some of you follow the Tracey angle as he is in flying form at the moment and this added to his recent haul – he was making handicap chase debut here- they moved him up massively in trip and changed tactics, making all. The buggers. He had shown nothing on his last three stars, showing no interest at all – running poorly long before a lack of class or a shorter trip were a problem. That put me off. Given Lacey’s form and his record with handicap debutants + moving horses in trip, I probably should have had a dart. I am more cautious with wading into unexposed chasers, hurdlers have been more fruitful. Plenty to improve on, as always. These unexposed Lacey horses don’t go long before winning. This one received a brilliant ride and he seemed to respond to more aggressive tactics.

I can live with missing Kirby’s 16/1 winner, having tipped his other one in the race. He improved a horse from the Skeltons! That has been noted. I think the fact he was trained there, the 60+ day break (trainer not prolific with those but can clearly ready them) his poor form when last seen, lack of form on soft (an unknown though) and Kirby’s record with ‘trainer change’ horses – 3/35 last 2 years, all combined to put me off. It looks like the one I tipped needs further. Got that wrong, but I can live with those. You have to deal with ‘missed winners’ and hopefully you came out ahead on the day, or not much damage was done.

Moving On.

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Thanks for all of your Christmas messages/best wishes, much appreciated. I’m still yet to come to terms with the fact that Roddo listens to Stormzy!! I’d better fire up Spotify and have a listen 🙂 

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Other Updates… well I have lost track of the days of the week. I need to update results for the advised strategies and write a ‘week that was’ article, but I may have a week off on that front and return next week, I’ll see.

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As always GL with any bets today,

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Just the one winner today at 8/1 leaving us with a 2.8pt loss. Back to Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:

    2.15 Falcon’s Vision 8/1
    2.45 Global Rose 4/1
    3.25 Antonian 9/2
    3.55 Stellar Surprise 11/2
    4.25 Maratha 4/1 & Waarif 5/1

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 26/12/17 10:13 PM Reply


    • Good luck Ken.

      martin colwell 27/12/17 9:18 AM Reply


      • Thanks Martin. I have refined the strategy slightly. Let’s see how it goes today.

        Ken McKenzie 27/12/17 11:11 AM Reply


    • Keep going Ken…BOL

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 27/12/17 1:35 PM Reply


      • 3 winners today. That’s more like it. Unfortunately profits reduced by a couple of rule 4s (one at 65p!!) but still around 6pts profit.

        Ken McKenzie 27/12/17 5:33 PM Reply


  • If Chase The Spud were around 16 instead of 10/1,would have been worth a e/w stab in Welsh GN
    Positives
    Will love the ground
    Lightly raced for a 9yo
    Stays further
    Negatives
    Chepstow record not great

    The last race the spud won was a poor one in hidsight/against some suspect opponents,although Robinsfirth 2nd gave the form some validity winning at cheltenham.The main concern is that Paddy was able to lead or be prominent lto pushing the pace and exposing the frailties of the others,think there will be plenty tomorrow who will want to lead or be handy,so may have to hang back and hope that he can stay past spent forces,so will be sitting on fence to see if price gets more tempting

    gearoid180468 26/12/17 11:07 PM Reply


    • I did like Chase The Spud and Rock The Kasbah but anyone who has ever been to Chepstow would know with the weather they have had the meeting was doomed. They reconvene Jan 13th I believe.

      martin colwell 27/12/17 9:21 AM Reply


      • Looks more like Laytown,that pond fence would take some getting over

        gearoid180468 27/12/17 9:32 AM Reply


  • ITV racing.
    nice profit yesterday with 4/7 @5-1,9-2,7-2,3-1 so i’ll have another go today
    not a lot of value around today but some nice horses out.
    Chepstow.
    1-05. Play The Ace 3-1
    1-35. Souriyan 16-1 ew
    2-10. Sussex Ranger 7-4
    2-50. Houblon Des Obeaux 20-1,Beware The Bear 9-1 both ew
    Kempton.
    1-20. Shantou Rock 5-4
    1-55. Jester Jet 4-1
    2-30. Special Tiara 3-1
    3-05. Brandon Hill 3-1
    not on telly 3-40 Demon D’aunou 5-1
    i quite fancy Flemerina 10-1 ew in the Wetherby 3-15 and in the 12-30 i’ll have £1ew on Mutawaasel 50-1 looked to have some ability lto and wouldn’t have to improve that much to figure in the shake up.
    gl if your having a punt today.

    martin whittle 27/12/17 7:06 AM Reply


    • with Chepstow off had a quick look at Leopardstown and if Magic Of Light gets into the 3-00 i’ll have a go @33’s looks an improving type plenty to like.

      martin whittle 27/12/17 10:09 AM Reply


  • Chepstow waterlogged and OFF

    Norman 27/12/17 8:37 AM Reply


  • Well I certainly made up for being sober on Xmas Day by enjoying way too much prosecco yesterday particularly given I am at work today so no tips from me (which given the rate at which I have been hitting crossbars lately may not be a bad thing) although I do have a note to back Houndscourt when he returns to soft ground in a class 5 which he does in the 15:15 at Wetherby. Trainer hasn’t had even a place in an eternity so wouldn’t be tipping him anyway but at 25s couldn’t help but thrown £5 e/w on it. Was 3rd in this race last year as well so I suspect this might have been the plan.

    Nick Mazur 27/12/17 10:41 AM Reply


    • With the head clearing a little I have had a glance at the PP Chase and I thought Bonny Kate looked too big at 20/1 with 6 places and have had 0.5pt e/w (I am still only dipping my feet as far as Irish chases are concerned hence the half stake). If you look away from Grade 1s she never seems to run a bad race. We know she will stay and will be not far away from the pace and might have needed it LTO in the Troytown. I suspect Flanagan would have had the pick for the 4 Meade runners. Just look really solid here.

      Nick Mazur 27/12/17 12:45 PM Reply


  • 15.05 Kempton PILGRIMS BAY – RH track that is flat or slightly undulating : 1212315

    Won a Grade 3 at this track very impressively and should find this race slightly easier than the ones he has recently been contesting.
    Ran well last time finishing 5th at Newbury in Grade 3 event.
    The stable seem to be in better form now as well

    David Peat 27/12/17 11:01 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh a very nice day yesterday with some very good priced winners, I’m going racing at Doncaster on Friday 29th I know it’s the holiday season but if you get the chance would you kind enough look through the card for me, or if anyone else wants to it would be much appreciated.
    Thanks again for a great members blog & long may it continue!

    Regards Steven Cartwright.

    Steven Cartwright 27/12/17 11:14 AM Reply


  • 12.30 WETH Going Gold 5/1 … James Reveley is over from France and has just the one ride .

    I have a day out at Newbury Saturday , if you have the time/inclination Josh 🙂
    a few pointers always appreciated

    joners 27/12/17 11:46 AM Reply


    • Yep I did spot him riding… I do wonder if he has just been over here for Xmas and there wasn’t much for him in France this week but intriguing nonetheless. From memory he did used to ride a bit for those owners, but I could well be making that up!!

      Steven – I should be able to have a look at Donny, a glance through at least, no problem. (well, I’m not going anywhere, so provided everyone else doesn’t, I’ll still be here haha)

      Tony – possibly.. about 7 friends are stopping over in Liverpool for the night on Friday on their way up to Edinburgh (free lift for me!) so it may well be touch and go whether have time to do the card justice, outside of pulling together the members post etc.

      I’m sure the there will be a few thoughts from the others!

      Josh

      Josh 27/12/17 11:56 AM Reply


  • Don’t know about the whiskey but after that race at leopards town in feeling sour 🙁 hopefully all fallers are okay my pocket will survive

    Aaron Lumsden 27/12/17 1:57 PM Reply


  • Thank you for Final Fling, a great way to finish the day, well done with Houndscourt too Nick

    Paul 27/12/17 3:28 PM Reply


    • Yeah not a bad little race there. Much needed 14/1 winner for the 10/1+ rated jumpers on top of the SP2A bets and nicely 33/1 place for me there.

      Nick Mazur 27/12/17 3:30 PM Reply


  • 14/1 winner is a great confidence boost…adding to the couple yesterday things are looking up again on the S2 front.

    Matt M 27/12/17 3:34 PM Reply


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