Free Daily Post: 23/12/17 (complete)

TIPS

3.00 Ascot 

Frodon – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) 2nd 8/1

Clondaw Cian – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) PU 16/1

 

This race is a puzzle that looks almost impossible to solve. I nearly didn’t play in it but in the end I couldn’t resist. Such is the competitiveness of this I wanted a couple of horses at a double figure price that I could make some sort of case for. I narrowed this down to the two selections, Go Conquer, Walk In The Mill and Singlefarmpayment. I’ve gone for the biggest priced ones.

Frodon – well he has been running well enough and is thoroughly unexposed over 3m in handicaps. It could be he doesn’t stay but it’s an unknown and there is plenty of evidence to suggest he is well worth a go and may well relish it. He is well handicapped with the excellent claim from BF and she should be able to race handily and track any pace. In general she likes to be aggressive on chasers and rarely has them in the wrong place. I hope they race him forward as it can be tough coming from behind here over fences. He ticked plenty of boxes. He knows how to win and Nicholls has won this race before. I thought he looked a few points too big here and could easily be sent off 7s/8s. I should get a run for my money, at least until the 2nd last.

Clondaw Cian – this one is a flyer but this race has thrown up some shocks/big priced winners and I wanted to have a dart. I suppose I was initially lured in by his geegeez speed rating which is big in this. Having had a closer look he is unexposed over fences and there should be more to come one day. Gavin Sheehan is riding out of his skin at the moment and rode this one to place over CD two starts ago. He should appreciate softer conditions and it isn’t impossible that plenty of these fall into a hole a late on. He will be doing his best work late. My head says he probably isn’t good enough and he can be a monkey- but he does often respond for pressure and you never know. Horses at the lower end of the weights also have a decent record in this. I just couldn’t resist 25/1 and at some point in the weeks ahead my pin will land on another monster or two. He is no forlorn hope but they could well go at a pace that is too hot and his jumping falls to pieces. There is only one way to find out. You want a big price with these types in this sort of race and I get that. Fingers crossed!

Of the rest…

Well, where do you start. Singlefarmpayment is too short for me given he is a hold up horse who always needs plenty of luck and he fell LTO. That could have knocked his confidence and in any case will have to close on the leaders as some point and could take another fence with him. Clearly no shock winner but his price was skinny to my rusty chase eyes. Go Conquer- I couldn’t work out what to do with him- his price felt right but he could bolt up again. I’m not sure there was much depth to his last win as I think the race fell apart a bit. I also don’t think he’ll be able to dictate here (well I hope not) and softer ground is a question. He may handle it fine. He is up another 9lb and will have to step forward again and something about the 49 day break niggled at me. However this may well have been the target since the last race. You can make a very strong case for him, but in the end I could make a case for two horses at bigger prices. As simple as that. He feels like the obvious one here and whenever I go for them they disappoint! So I won’t jinx him for you if he’s your pick! Regal Encore won this race last year and if he runs his best he could stay on late and win again. He can clout a fence and the Hennessy did fall apart the last day. Well, the front two were much the best in the race but he could have been flattered given many went very hard up front and most of those fell into a hole late on. He was the other big priced one that I looked at, but decided against it. I should have tipped him EW the last day at 100/1 as mentioned in the notes on the day, but alas I didn’t. Nicky Henderson is 0/11,0p in this and his two did seem to have a few questions, but the yard is bouncing. Of course I may not have mentioned the winner.

It is one of those races that you probably shouldn’t play in, but the purposes of the free tips section is not to shirk a challenge and provide something of interest for races just like this. I could do with a winner after the latest wobble. That’s racing, on we go,

GL if you play

 

 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams November (testing/tracking into Dec)

2.45 Had – Vic De Touzaine (16/1<)

3.00 Ascot – Yala Enki (16/1<)

Tom George 

3.00 Ascot – Singlefarmpayment

Kerry Lee 

1.50 Ascot – Grey Gold (12/1<(

SAT Trainer/Jockey Combo 

2.45 Had – Three Faces West

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.45 Had – No Planning (12/1<)

3.20 Hayd – The Gipper (12/1< guide)

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BONUS… Guest Tips…

Below are some guest tips from Ian at Sp2a. He and his team have pulled in the profits big time since the start of October and many of those from the original trial are now deciding whether to stay for longer. I suspect many of them will (well quite a few have already) and you can’t blame them. I have no hesitation in saying that from what I have seen, and my experience in this game to date, that it’s the best all round tipping/race adviser service I have ever seen. I mean they make decent profits (25% ROI) to industry starting price! Madness. If you just wanted to follow one tipster service I would give them a go. The good news is that Ian has agreed to do another 3 month trial for those of you who missed out on the first one. You’ll be able to see for yourself and won’t need to take my word for it. News on how you can join will be forthcoming after Boxing Day.

In the meantime, I have picked out one race they have tipped in today… no doubt I’ve picked the wrong sodding one. But, here goes…

Ascot 3.35 
Elgin @ 8/1 – 1/2 point EW
Air Horse One @ 12/1 – 1/4 point EW
Verdana Blue @ 8/1 – 1/4 point EW

3.35 is the race of the day and again, numerous chances. I can’t desert ELGIN who has won probably the 2 toughest and most informative Hurdles of the year so far. Those were narrow wins battling hard, and you just sense it is a horse who is not flashy, but who will always find that little bit more, and I think cracking e/w value with odds to 4th and 5th in places. The chances of Charli Parcs and Verdana Blue are obvious but both have to prove they can handle Going that is not genuinely Good to Soft; of the pair, I like VERDANA BLUE the  most and that is the second selection of three in the race. The claims of the Elliott horse seem to have been over-played a bit in the market, it has won 1 in 21; is a classic bridle horse, it may be produced brilliantly at just the right time and make me look like a chump;

I will doff my proverbial cap to a maestro jockey, if it does, but not for me today. Fergall loves it here and should outrun its odds and  Silver Streak was mightily impressive last time, but one the market seems to have forgotten is AIR HORSE ONE. If you look strictly on the form book, it has the beating of ELGIN on a recent run here, getting 3 lbs for a 21/2 length defeat and if the race is run at a true gallop has proven form in the Going and a bit of proven stamina, that few have, and likely to be battling on right to the line…

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Right, that’s the lot from me. GL with any bets.
Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

2 Comments

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  • Read these post s often enough so thought I would add this iv deduced from using horaeracebase.com .. we all look at trends differently and this is what iv come up with.

    TOMMY WHITTLE CHASE
    Picking through the tends I would be looking at 6/7/8 year olds which removes Three faces west which considering Philip Hobbs is 0/19 Last 2 weeks I’m not to concerned with, also going out is catamaran du seuil , No planing,Broadway buffalo and go west young man.
    Most of the other main tends such as rating,weight, breeding etc all the horses pass so I dig deeper and find that all winners last ran on a left hand track , out goes Vic de touziane who also would go having pulled up LTO 0/15.
    This leaves Full Irish and Lakeview lad who both fail having won LTO 0/17 leaving just Captain Redbeard who passes all my criteria however form on heavy ground is not something I want to put my money also the trainer is well out of form so I will overlook the fact that Lakeview lad won last time but was only put up 4lb which passes a trend that no horse won having been put up more than 4lb from it’s last race something that full irish fails on having been put up 8lb.

    Tip Lakeview lad

    Robert bland 23/12/17 1:37 PM Reply


  • Sorry folks, not such a good day today as last Saturday, but you can’t win them all. We do exceptionally well at Ascot on Flat, but that’s the third successive NH meeting there where we have not delivered what we’d hope, just can’t seem to fathom the Going out but no excuse really there are some tracks where for whatever reason it does not click, and will be very circumspect of Ascot NH until we can crack the puzzle.

    I would like to wish all Readers of Racing to Profit a very Happy Christmas and to Josh in particular, a totally genuine; dedicated guy; who delivers a great service and at the forefront of what he does….hope you all have a great time, no doubt we’ll all be back for more on Boxing Day!

    Have a good one

    Ian

    Ian@SP2A 23/12/17 5:21 PM Reply


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