Members Daily Post: 22/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ayr 

12.30 – Craiganboy (m1+m2) ES+ I3 6/1 S3A  UP 13/2 

1.05 – Achill Road Boy (all hncps+ m1 + m1) I3 9/1  UP 10/3 

2.50 – Charmant (hncp hurdle + m1) H1 I1 G1 6/4 S4  WON 6/4>11/10

 

Uttoxeter

1.10 – Hadfield (hncp hurdle + m1) ES H3 I3 G1 7/2  S3 S4 UP 

3.30 – Don Des Fosses (NHF) 14,30  7/4  WON 11/8 

 

Ascot 

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (30/170, +110) (1 point win bets)

 

12.30 Ayr – Craiganboy – 7/1 (bet365) 6/1 (gen) UP 13/2

Hmm, scratching my head a bit there- he has travelled like the winner for most of the way through that to my eye, but has found little after the second last. An odd run. Maybe he just wasn’t sharp enough as stamina didn’t look to be a problem. It will be interesting to see if they keep him to hurdles or what they do next. Moving on. 

I want to have a go on this one as I think he could be a couple points too big in what seems a mediocre enough race. A few things caught the eye. Firstly I looked at the trainer’s website where he gave a fairly positive preview- the horse is running here due to the lack of opportunities over fences, what with various cancelled meetings etc. That suggests one of two things to me- he is either bouncing at home and they are desperate to run him, or maybe they feel they need to get another run into him and don’t want to wait any longer, teeing him up for a return to fences. Alexander talked in a way which suggested this horse is here to run his race and any win won’t affect his chase mark. He is thoroughly unexposed as a handicap hurdler, this being only his second start in this sphere, and the first for Alexander. He is only 2lb higher than when winning comfortably over fences three starts ago. He ran well on his seasonal debut the last day, probably finding the trip sharp enough in the end and no doubt needing the run. He steps up to 19f here which does look ideal, at least based on his win chase win here over 18f. He will (should) stay. Heavy ground is no problem and neither is the track. I suspect Lucy would have ridden him but she is injured and you can’t help but note that he has booked Hughes, not a bad replacement! They are 9/18,13p when teaming up in handicaps. He could be very well handicapped in this sphere and at that price I thought he was worth a go. I’d like to think he won’t get outpaced but you never know. Hopefully he can just gallop them all into the ground, Hughes saving plenty for after the last. Most of the others in this seem to have questions to answer also. I had a good look at him in Inform and he comes out well/on top against numerous factors in their race-cards. A decent bet to my eye.

That will be all for ‘tips’.

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Re-cap on a couple of losers from yesterday… Heurtevent was in the process of running a massive race and if he’d have stayed on his feet I suspect he may have gone close. But you have to jump. The first time visor seemed to spark him up and he was well backed. His trainer is still a bit cold but hopefully he is in form next time he runs here. If the visor has the same effect he may be returning to the winners enclosure. Llancillo Lord drifted to 20s and ran no sort of race. I expected more and this wasn’t a great run. He showed glimpses but there could be underlying issues. One to watch. He is unexposed and I’m sure Walford will find the key. Bact To Black was backed from 16/1 into 5/2 and ran a stinker. He travelled and jumped well enough but found little as they turned for home. That could be inexperience or he hated the ground. There will be other days for him no doubt but I have no idea what his ideal conditions could be at this stage.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

11.50 – 

Bold Spirit (m1) H3 G3 7/2 S5 2nd 

Queens Royale (m1+m2) ES+ 11/4 S3A WON 3/1 

12.25 – 

Stoneboat Bill (m1+m1) 30 I3 10/1  UP

Shearian (m1) 30 H3 I1 16/1 S2 S6  3rd 12/1 

2.45 – Dream Serenade (m2) H1 I1 G3 5/1 S1 S2 S4 3rd 

3.20 – Topamichi (m2) H1 I1 G3  Evens S1 S2 S4 UP

 

Wolvs

8.15 – Falcons Fire (m1) I1 10/1 S6 

 

Dundalk

5.30 – Gilded Reflection (3yo+)  9/1 UP

7.30 – Boherbuoy (3yo+) H1 10/1 S6 

8.00 – Shakethebuckett (3yo+) 11/1 

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Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.40 Ascot – Herecomestheboom (m1+m2) 8/1  UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Big Race Stats/Trends

SAT: Ascot 2m Hncp Hurdle

11 renewals, 11/193 runners, 40 placed horses

11/11 Official Rating was higher than LTO (0/85,13p same or lower)

11/11 had 2+ runs in handicap hurdles (0/53,11p had 0-1)

  • 9/11 had 2-4 runs in handicap hurdles
  • 3 runs only in handicap hurdles: 6/19 runners, 9p, +65 BFSP

11/11 had 0-2 runs in prev 90 days (3+ 0/55,8p)

11/11 had 0-2 handicap hurdle wins

11/11 had 2-4 hurdle wins (0-1, 0/38,8p)

11/11 Top 4 LTO

11/11 had placed at least once on last two starts (0/42,4p had not)

9/11 had won at least once on last three starts

8/11 aged 5 or 6 (8/100 runners, 20 places, 72% winners, 50% of the runners, 50% places)

Claiming jockeys: 0/64, 11p

Trainers: N Henderson (3) G Elliot (2)  1 win – Fry/Skelton/Hobbs/Pipe/A King , P Nicholls (0/14,4p)

 

Shortlist: to follow. Hopefully there is a big field

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Welsh Grand National 

For those who wish to start early… I am not sure these will help too much but some decent pointers…

20/20 Top 6 LTO

20/20 ran 16-60 days ago (outside of this, 0/60,4p)

19/20 Aged 9 or younger (10+ , 1/84, 11p)

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10 years (10/190 runners, 40 places)

10/10 Top 6 LTO (7th worse 0/59,9p)

9/10 Aged 6-8 (9+ 1/95,18p.. aged 9 0/55,11p, 10+ 1/40,7p)

9/10 had 1-3 handicap chase wins (9/108,29p,  57% of runners, 90% of winners, 73% of placed horses)

8/10 had 2+ runs in prev 90 days (1 only – 2/75,11p, 40% runners, 20% winners, 25% places horses)

Of some mild interest, and maybe random but some logic… given the place stats it could be there is nothing to it..

-Jockeys that had ridden horse 0-2 times previoulsy: 2/97,16p

-Jockeys had ridden horse 3+ times previously: 8/93, 24p

Horses that had won 3+ times in the going: 5/34,13p, +34 BFSP

2+ places at Chepstow: 6/44,15p, +50

Horse carried 11-11 or 11-12 LTO: 0/39,5p (that could be random, scratching my head for any logic there)

10/10 ran at following tracks LTO: Chep (3/19,7p,+51) / Sandown / Newbury / Chet / Navan

 

Shortlist: To follow on 26th/27th

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Well that was a bit of a downer today after yesterday’s big high. It’s amazing how it can go like that. Just when you think you’ve cracked it, you get a double blow-out to send you crashing back to earth. The most disappointing thing about today’s selections was that out of 8 races covered we had 5 second places and one third. Close but no cigar! The only positive I can take from the last 3 days is we are still 7pts in profit to Early/BOG prices. Two more AW meetings tomorrow. Back to Southwell (Yikes!!) in the afternoon and Wolves at night. Here goes again:

    Southwell
    11.50 Count Montecristo 11/1 & Bold Spirit 5/1
    12.25 Dose 12/1 & Best Tamayuz 5/1
    1.00 Tilly Devine 5/1 & Ronni Layne 5/1
    2.45 Dream Serenade 4/1
    3.20 Vigee Le Brun 9/2

    Wolves
    5.45 Phoenix Lightning 20/1 & Swissal 4/1
    6.15 Ideal Candy 5/1 & Golden Image 9/2
    7.15 Doctor Sardonicus 11/2
    7.45 Captain Scooby 25/1
    8.15 Falcon’s Fire 10/1 & Cool Music 8/1
    8.45 Critical Thinking 18/1 & Sir Gnet 10/1

    1pt win each recommended. I have done the numbers on each way and it still comes out better for win only but between 20/1 and 25/1 there’s not a huge difference so if you feel more comfortable with EW then go for it, long term it won’t be far away.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 21/12/17 9:09 PM Reply


    • We all have to take a beating sometimes Ken! Let s see how it goes on Friday? You need to crack the Southwell hoodoo. I presume it is random based upon a small sample to date? Why else would your system not function at Southwell?

      martin colwell 21/12/17 9:36 PM Reply


      • Depends on what you call a small sample? I have 3 months of data from every AW race in UK. As I said in a previous comment, until now Southwell was by far the best performing track in testing. I guess (hope!) it will average out over a longer period. On the opposite side of that, Newcastle has been quite poor but that may go the other way.

        I’ll keep plugging away, tweaking and refining it till I find the best angle. I am looking to reduce the number of qualifiers without reducing the projected profits too much but with a greater ROI, but so far I haven’t quite found that angle yet.

        Ken McKenzie 21/12/17 10:49 PM Reply


        • When is a sample size ever big enough? I am always refining my methodologies to get an edge, it never stops. Only time will tell.

          martin colwell 21/12/17 11:07 PM Reply


  • Brother Bennett Uttoxeter Friday 14:20 1pt e/w-Not really got the time for full write ups but trainer Zoe Davison has a extremely well treated string and is finally hit form with a 30% strike rate over the past 6 months including winners from her last 2 runners. Jockey is also 3/4 whilst riding for her and the horse reverts to hurdles and is running off about 20lbs lower than a couple of years ago before the jockey claim. First time cheekpieces will also help.
    Presented Ayr Friday 13:05 1pt e/w-If there was ever a horse that epitomizes my tipping style he would be it. Has been 2nd or 3rd in 6 of his last 7 runs and really should be closer in price to the front two (2lb swing with fav and fav is carrying 11st12lb in heavy and has yet to win on it; trainer of the 2nd fav is out of form) given there was little between them in the past 2 races. Conditions for the selection are ideal and like her horse the trainer has had her last 4 runners finish 2nd or 3rd and is 3/8, 5p in handicap chases at the track.

    Nick Mazur 21/12/17 11:13 PM Reply


    • Totally agree with the “well treated string” comment Nick and i was drawn to another of the stables runners …. Georgieshore 12.00 utt ..did open at 8/1 B365 last night .
      Had a run over shorter 3 weeks back and now steps up to a trip of 2m4f which is half a furlong more than his win on Heavy @ Lingfield.
      Ran on nicely at Leicester and this step up looks perfect .

      May have to play an eaxh way double as well now you’ve put up BB
      Good Luck

      joners 22/12/17 6:19 AM Reply


      • I looked at Georgie as well but he was 5/1 when I got so left him although definitely has a chance.

        Nick Mazur 22/12/17 7:35 AM Reply


    • Mr One More Ascot 13:55 1.5pt win-At the prices I can’t leave this one unbacked. Looks pretty evenly matched with Slate House given they were both less than a length ahead of Summerville Boy and he gets 5lbs off Slate House. The favorite could be a monster but not sure if he warrants being so short particularly as his worst run of his career was at the track and he is more exposed than most here. Barry and Harry have not been on the losing side in 4 hurdles run here in the past 5 years and Fry has a 40+% win rate over hurdles int he past 5 years. Not to mention he has won at the track.

      Nick Mazur 22/12/17 11:06 AM Reply


      • Harry Fry is a bit out of form at present I think but the 6/1 may be value against the two market leaders.

        There does not seem to be much value about today. The bookies mark up % is higher than usual. Merry Christmas!

        martin colwell 22/12/17 12:50 PM Reply


  • Had some spare time to look over some coming races…and it’s been a good few years since managing to pull one of these off for a nice AP treble…..but some are jumping out as potentially good value…

    Wakanda in the Rowland Meyrick. According to a recent yard update this is the target…and we all know what Wakanda can do on a good day right. Best I’ve seen is 12s at Sky, there’s a very strong chance it could be half that on the day.

    Supasundae in the big 3 miler at Leopardstown. 8s in most places. Again recent yard update says he runs. Ran a great race on first start this season a few weeks ago, Harrington stated some time ago that season would be geared around taking the World Hurdle in March. The horse probably has to take this to make that a serious proposition. May be half these odds in a few days time.

    And Saturday the Long Walk….

    Something must have been amiss with Agrapart in the big French races this autumn. Had his ground but ran inexplicably poorly, and I can’t find anything from the yard explaining it. But on his day he’s a Grade 1 horse. It’s not rained at Ascot this week and no sign of it on the weather reports. Tomorrow will tell a bit more on whether it’s going to be soft enough….and some heavy downpours on Saturday night won’t go amiss! generally 25s

    And Agrapart meets his old rival L’ami Serge, who Henderson has been saying since start of season will go the long distance route to March. Expect L’ami to walk this if Agrapart doesn’t get his ground (and maybe even if he does!). Nothing better than around 5s anywhere though, but that’s probably fair.

    All 4 should run based on any news available. EW Treble on Wakanda, L’ami, Supa has some good prospects of returning on the places. Maybe more speculative with Agrapart instead of L’ami provided Ascot ground is soft.

    I like the look of Flintham in the Tommy Whittle but can’t find any news on what his preferred engagement will be (entered in a couple of alternative novice events). Ground at Haydock should still be heavy though, they may well go for it. 8s not big enough really unless knowing if definitely lining up.

    Oh…and with a large dollop of luck, a fair portion of the winnings can go towards lifting Ch’tibello over the line by a nose in March! Would have gone close last March, was more than close enough last week. Skelton might have been rubbing his hands with glee after that run. Sadly there will be no 3 figure prices on BF this time around.

    Steve C 21/12/17 11:17 PM Reply


    • cracking read Steve, good stuff. GL with all those…would need to go look at Wakander again but from memory he has been running if there was a plan in store … he’s had the same prep as last year, running at Newcastle, beaten similar distances…and he split Defintly Red and Blacklion in this race last year… yep if he lines up you can’t see him being bigger than 8s I wouldn’t have thought, esp if no pace on and Cook can lead.
      Josh

      Josh 22/12/17 10:52 AM Reply


  • Harry Bannister riding at Uttoxeter today in an handicap
    2.55 Morney Wing

    Matt M 22/12/17 9:25 AM Reply


    • yep not without a chance having had a quick look but on the short end for me, doesn’t mean he isn’t still value of course! Could be he is about to peak, and he ran well LTO. He could get an easy enough lead here and may be used to the blinkers. I think the race LTo was probably stronger than this one. Just whether his last race has taken anything out of him, as looked hard work and only a couple weeks ago. But he has won in this rest pattern before. Shot give it a good go. GL if you play.

      Josh 22/12/17 10:49 AM Reply


  • Some other stats I looked into last night. Henderson’s runners in either maiden hurdle or maiden NHF ( 10/1< ) are decent enough .

    12.45 Settie Hill.

    Matt M 22/12/17 12:16 PM Reply


  • Craiganboy,I think that was a nice little bit of work,oh I forgot your supposed to try and get best possible place on track,lobbing along and you were wondering when Hughes was going to put him in the race,not today folks,a show of the whip for the stewards.One to watch for future

    gearoid180468 22/12/17 1:51 PM Reply


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