Members Daily Post: 21/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Towcester

12.55 – Heurtevent (m1) 16/1 S2 Fell 8/1 (running big race at time, headgear worked) 

 

Exeter

1.35 –

Llancillo Lord (all hncps + hncp chase) 14,30 ES 16/1 S2 S3  UP 20/1 

Only Gorgeous (hncp chase + m1) ES+ I3 14/1 S2 S3A S5  UP 12/1 

2.40 –

Druids Folly (all hncps) ES 25/1 S2 S3 UP 28/1 

Trans Express (m1+m1+m2) ES+  I3 G3 5/1 S3A  WON 5/1>7/2 

3.45 – Bact To Black (all hncps) ES 16/1 S2 S3 UP 16/1> 5/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/170, +104.4) (1 point win bets)

 

1.35 Exeter – Llancillo Lord – 16/1 (bet365/PP/BetfS/BV) UP 20/1 

2.40 Exeter – Trans Express – 8/1 13/2 |6/1  WON 13/2>7/2 

 

Llancillo Lord- UP 20/1 – well that was over before it began, 20/1, ridden more patiently, never in the race…he looked to be travelling into it ok before fading rather tamely. He did break a book vessel LTO which is common in plenty of horses I think – but he has stopped here as if that may be a more serious issue. Or they are just being patient with him/getting mark down. the market will guide here but this one, you’ve guessed it, could be anything! He is thoroughly unexposed over fences and comes here having his second run for the yard. The trainer is in form and having had a dig at his stats is 4/7,5p with handicap chase debutants. After seeing that I found it hard to resist at 16s. The market will guide here given he is 0/18,3p with handicap chasers sent off bigger than 12/1 SP. He made all last day in his novice chase, up against horses rated 25lbs+ superior. He was 50/1 and it was his first run in a long time. He should come on for it. Two starts ago he got within two lengths of Presenting Percy in a novice handicap hurdle (that was in November 2016) and that horse hasn’t done badly since. I hope they try and make all again as he looked built for chasing, jumping well on the front end. With any luck he could get a few of these in trouble but at some point he will show himself to be well handicapped in this sphere. It could be in this race or no doubt back here at some point in the future. I’m sure I’ll back him to win over fences one day! If you remove the fav from this race then it looks very open to my eyes, with every horse having a question or three. The fav is included in that. Exeter is very different to Bangor and Williams is only 3/33 with horses that won LTO, in the last two years. They’re not prolific at following up. He may bolt up but that wasn’t a strong race with the fav disappointing. I keep finding one too good at the moment and he may be another added to that list, but I won’t refrain from taking them on. With any luck plenty of money comes for this one. If it doesn’t then I won’t expect much and no doubt he’ll be held up out the back!

Trans Express – well 13/2, 6/1 WON  is probably just about ok. 8s didn’t last long. This horse is 2/2 over CD and has every chance of making it 3/3 here I think. All race conditions are fine and this mark isn’t beyond him I don’t think. He has run well enough the last two times over trips I don’t think he stays. He ran a big race at Cheltenham over 21f and the combination of that trip, the class, field size/pace and the hill found him out. He went well for a long way back here LTO over 23f. He drops 4f here and gets to carry nothing on his back. If he runs his race I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t go close. He is in form to my eye and these are ideal conditions for him. He still ‘unexposed’ in race conditions.

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That will be it for today, ‘tips’ wise – in the time I have been pondering whether to tip Bact To Black he has generally halved in price, 16s>8s. Hopefully he can give a boost to S2/3 – something was niggling at me – he is unexposed, is making handicap hurdle debut at a lowly level and moves up in trip by 5f – all reasons for why he could suddenly burst into life. The trainer is in form and the jockey booking is interesting as I think that lad is highly regarded and attached to Paul Nicholls. 16s was worth a dart I think and market support could be significant. However he has shown nothing and been big prices the last twice, Walford handicap hurdlers 0/23,4p that were 16/1+ LTO- small numbers but it would indicate not many suddenly go from no hopers (according to the market) to winners. He isn’t prolific with handicap hurdle debutants nor with those he moves in trip. That’s what I was pondering, but in any case the price has made my decision for me- I can’t tip a horse that I know was 16s and is now 8s! Given the questions he that feels about right to me, rather than still being a few points too big. Was worth a dart with the system bank at 16s. Only Gorgeous – I do wake up in cold sweats at the thought of tipping a horse in a race only for another qualifier to romp home. (Jonjo O’Neill responsible for those most recent nightmares) – If you could forgive his PU last time out he is no forlorn hope- in this ground this is much more his distance in a strongly run race, and he was bang there until they turned for home the last day. This feels an open enough race and is no forlorn hope if finding his best form, and I’ve had a nibble on him, esp given the strategies he hit.

Finger crossed today could mark some sort of sustained turnaround. A few above look interesting on paper but likewise have profiles where you wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t go close. This feels like ‘phase two’ – phase one included everything running a shocker. Phase two has shown some green shoots of recovery – an S2 winner, and plenty of horses at decent prices being backed and placing/coming second, finding one too good. Phase 3 should be an avalanche of winners. Here’s hoping, or praying. A return to phase 1 and I’ll need a big bottle of whisky.

Thankfully Ken and others are offering some cheer in the comments when to be frank I can’t buy a winner at the moment. I’m sure he’ll reveal his secrets one day!! 🙂

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

11.45 – Epitaph (m2) 20/1 3rd 11/1

2.50 – Viva Verglas (m1) ES I3 6/1 S3 UP

3.25 – Sir Harry Collins (m2) G3 10/1 

 

Chelmsford 

8.45 – Captain Scooby (all hncps) I1 28/1 S6 

 

Dundalk 

7.00 – Clare Island 11/4

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Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.35 Town – Jennifer Juniper 9/1 UP

 

Alex Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.45 Exet – How About It (m2) 18/1 UP 25/1

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The Week That Was: #7 READ HERE>>>

This week I take a look at a few notebook horses as usual. In ‘stats the way to do it‘ (I should think of another name but ‘research corner sounded equally naff!) I’ve taken a look at Harry Bannister, Miss R Donald and Richard Hobson… who looks well worth keeping a very very close eye. His set up/MO is a bit different to most.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

38 Comments

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  • First time posting on here, but a regular reader of all the excellent posts that appear daily. Anyway I managed to win some free tickets for Ascot this Friday 22nd, but unfortunately cannot make it, so would like to pass them on to genuine racing folk like you guys.

    I’m aware it’s very short notice, but if you are keen then send me an email to salman_uya@hotmail.com. I live in North London so again that may also cause an issue for handover/collection, but hopefully someone can put them to good use. The tickets are for the King Edward stand.

    Cheers,

    Salman

    Salman 20/12/17 7:30 PM Reply


  • Well that was a day and a half. Four winners in total, saving the best to last with 14/1 and 16/1 winners Early/BOG, 10/1 & 7/1 SP, so it pays to get on early. If yesterday tested the faith in the strategy, today was like redemption 🙂

    Another two AW meetings tomorrow at Southwell and Chelmsford. Qualifiers are as follows:

    Southwell
    12.15 Satchville Flyer 4/1 & Little Pippin 11/1
    12.45 Little Choosey 14/1
    1.45 Montague 6/1 & Our Kid 5/1
    2.15 Mister Snowman 5/1 & Maraakib 17/2
    2.50 Meandmyshadow 11/1

    Chelmsford
    5.45 Misu Pete 14/1 & Twiggy 9/2
    6.15 Artieshow 9/2
    7.15 Stosur 9/1 & Hawatif 9/1
    1 pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 20/12/17 8:34 PM Reply


    • Great stuff this evening, Ken

      Steve C 20/12/17 8:52 PM Reply


    • Good effort Ken, I did back your selections at Lingfield on Wednesday and so well done sir. My one tip on the all weather finished last! I will be on Thursday.

      martin colwell 20/12/17 9:08 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken,

      Great work, keep it going. Not asking for your secret but are you using speed ratings to brilliant effect?

      Jarrod

      jarrodholmes68 20/12/17 9:12 PM Reply


    • Well there you go. Another blow out at Southwell. You probably won’t believe me when I say that in testing Southwell produced by far and away the best results. I guess a correction was due at some point. Just didn’t expect it two visits in a row. And guess what, we’re at Southwell again tomorrow. Yippee!! Ah well hopefully Chelmsford will give us some cheer tonight.

      Ken McKenzie 21/12/17 3:36 PM Reply


      • Never underestimate the influence of Sods law Ken
        Hopefully both Chelmsford tonight and Southwell tomorrow will be successful

        Andrew Gilmore 21/12/17 4:21 PM Reply


  • ken you da man!!

    william 20/12/17 8:49 PM Reply


    • Thanks guys. Keeping feet firmly on the ground. Have to remember that I had a complete blow-out at Southwell yesterday. Murphy’s law that we’re heading back there tomorrow!

      Ken McKenzie 20/12/17 8:54 PM Reply


      • I used your bets as fun bets, placed £2 or £1ew singles depending on price and did some small £1ew doubles or trixies. Anyway, rather flukely put £1ew double on Veena + Aumerie and won £220. All in all I think won about £300 from your tips today using small stakes. So thanks very much Ken, very impressed.

        shuey 20/12/17 9:32 PM Reply


        • We’ll done Shuey. Anything more than singles is a mystery to me but glad you used them to good effect. That must’ve been quite exhilarating watching Aumerle come home.

          Ken McKenzie 20/12/17 10:27 PM Reply


  • well done ken. thanks
    mrrry christmas siva

    lingham 20/12/17 8:58 PM Reply


  • Excellent work Ken. I noticed your selections seem to be the same as the top Inform Speed Ratings selections (well they were for Lingfield today at least). Maybe a coincedence and im sure theres more to your method than that, but interested to see if they are the best speed ratings for the AW? Anyway keep up the good work!

    On Southwell a couple of AW specialists I follow seem to think the track is running quicker than normal so that may explain the indifferent results there recently.

    JamesP 20/12/17 10:13 PM Reply


  • One for the Paddy watch tomorrow potentially – Pauls Hill in the 2.25 at Towcester. Only its 3rd run for FOB with Paddy booked for the first time, with its first 2 runs being ridden by Kieren Shoemark. Not shown much so far, but dropped a furlong, maybe they think its ready with Paddy booked? 14/1 currently.

    JamesP 20/12/17 10:22 PM Reply


    • Well that was an exciting finish! was in a different post code 2 out and charged home to beat the odds on jolly on the line. Nice to be on the right end of one of those for a change!

      JamesP 21/12/17 2:37 PM Reply


      • Lovely stuff James, I bet that was exciting. Trans Express has lifted my mood somewhat also. A good few minutes. The head needed that one.

        Josh 21/12/17 2:51 PM Reply


        • Good stuff Josh, hopefully the worm has turned and its the start of some winners flowing in.

          Just read Pauls Hill was matched for £84 at 1000 on the exchange 2 out. Must of been pretty painful for a few people!

          JamesP 21/12/17 3:03 PM Reply


    • thanks James got the 14,s last night.

      martin whittle 21/12/17 3:28 PM Reply


  • Sorry not going to divulge my sources or you’ll just pinch it for yourself lol.

    Ken McKenzie 20/12/17 10:48 PM Reply


    • Pixies at the end of his garden I reckon! They do like the all weather.

      Keep them sweet whilst they are picking winners Ken.

      martin colwell 21/12/17 8:05 AM Reply


  • The 3pm Towcester is probably not a race i should touch,with so many trainers boasting good records with chasers there,Daly,Bailey.Keighley and Lee.Its a novice but the horses dont know that.The 2 jockeys that ride the jumps course well are Bass and Moore.This could go to the favourite with trainer red hot, or Kayfleur but I will take chance with Bandon Roc and Sir Will at 12 and 10.Bandon Rock should have no problem with conditions if he has had some schooling after some poor jumping lto,As is often the case Sir Will may be a better chaser with the formidable combination of Lee/Moore

    gearoid180468 21/12/17 2:53 AM Reply


  • Josh trying to sign up to Snowy but can’t get to the sign up today page has it run out? tried chrome, firefox and IE no joy with any, i get the home page but when clicking on sign up today can’t connect. i have emptied history,caches etc any ideas?

    martin whittle 21/12/17 5:34 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin, I have no idea sorry, it doesn’t seem to be working my end- it could be they have taken it down (although I wasn’t aware of that) or some technical issue. We’ll see if it works later today.

      Josh 21/12/17 7:46 AM Reply


      • working now must have been a technical glitch,seems to be a few of them about today.

        martin whittle 21/12/17 3:24 PM Reply


  • Putting my bets on is hard work after last night,absolute scenes at Ashton Gate

    christopher jones 21/12/17 9:15 AM Reply


    • Ah I can imagine, it did look quite a celebration and rightfully so.

      Josh 21/12/17 10:22 AM Reply


    • You did not beat Millwall though. We have more heart though than Man U.

      Today I like two shorties – 3.35 Tow Pineapple Rush; 4.30 Dun Its Two O’Clock. I will have another look for something more juicy.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 21/12/17 10:32 AM Reply


  • Great stuff Ken…..couldn’t get on yesterday as daughter is in the Isle of Man and we had to pick up the kids for school etc…and bloody pantomine lol…plus all kinds of other things….but keep going lad…. Your a gem.

    back on asap.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 21/12/17 9:38 AM Reply


  • Well done Ken,i don’t really follow the AW and my strike rate is hit and miss,if you keep records,then after a season you may be able to assess where you make best ROI,and refine if necessary.In the long term if you have a succesfull formula it should continue.The surface wont change and the handicapper should be able to do a lot of the spadework,and the type of horse that competes should be more or less the same

    gearoid180468 21/12/17 10:38 AM Reply


    • Thanks. I’ve been keeping detailed records for a while now, refining it and back testing against historic results. As you say, it will be results over the long term that will prove if works or not but it is looking good at the moment. There will be ups and downs along the way (eg. blow-out at Southwell on Tues then 23pts yesterday) but hopefully the ups will exceed the downs.

      Ken McKenzie 21/12/17 1:13 PM Reply


  • Chris
    What a win did i see you orbiting the moon last night,these great nights is what football is all about.

    colin leafe 21/12/17 10:54 AM Reply


  • I have a 1% share in Sir Lancelott who runs 1215 Southwell today. Not much confidence in him and i think 1 mile is too far for him, but give him some encouragement please. As always, we want him to come back safe and sound

    Paul 21/12/17 11:04 AM Reply


  • What happen with a bet in betfair when you bet it on bfsp, but the site is unavailable at the start of the event?

    Marcel Renses 21/12/17 5:43 PM Reply


    • It’ll be voided I imagine.

      Neil 21/12/17 6:43 PM Reply


  • Good shout Josh…i got 11/2…so quite happy…..Trans Express.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 21/12/17 8:25 PM Reply


  • Hard luck ken…loads of 2nds…

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 21/12/17 8:33 PM Reply


  • It was paid !

    Marcel 21/12/17 8:46 PM Reply


    • Betfair work out the bsp from the offers placed before the race. The bet information is stored separately from the website, so site availability is immaterial.

      Problems arise for bettors if, for example, they are trying to place a back and lay, and the site goes down halfway through. Then the back bet will stand but the corresponding lay will never exist. Traders are often caught out by this.

      Chris Murrell 21/12/17 9:21 PM Reply


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