Members Daily Post: 19/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Catterick 

12.20 – Irish Hawke (m2) 14,30 I3 7/1  2nd 7/2 

1.50 –

Tanarpino (all hncps) G1 13/2.  2nd 9/2

Askamore Darsi (m1)14,30 ES 10/1 S2 S3 UP 10/1

2.50 –

Discoverie (all hncps)14 ES 20/1 S2 S3 UP 33/1

Maxed Out King (all hncps + hncp chase + m1+m2) 14 ES+ 11/2 S3A UP

Paddling (hncp chase) 30 14/1 S2 3rd

 

Fakenham 

None.

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/165, +109.4) (1 point win bets)

 NOTES

12.20 Catt- Irish Hawke – 7/1 , 13/2 2nd 7/2

1.50 Catt – Askamore Darsi – 10/1  UP

2.50 Catt – Paddling – 14/1 3rd 10/1

 

Irish HawkeAh, well if I am going to back a loser, smashing SP is the way to do it. Not the best of rides from Ella but I can’t critique as she is allowed to mistime rides and I thought that risk was built into the price- she left it an awful long time to get after the horse and make a move. She was hampered which didn’t help. Anyway, given how the winner hacked up it probably didn’t make any difference, but that horse has more handicap hurdles in him. One for the tracker. Probably won’t be missed next time though. Back to Sedgefield maybe. he is unexposed enough over this distance as a handicap hurdler and there could be more to come at some point. This is Donald’s youngest? daughters first ride over hurdles in public which may be a concern but she knew what she was doing on the flat. His girls seem to have a very good clock in their heads already and get horses settled and into a rhythm. The form of the McCain yard has lured me in to both his today, to a point. 6/27,13p in the last 14 days is solid enough. This one drops in distance and in class from his last run, and the combination of 23f/C4 probably found him out the last day. Having had a few runs in a short enough space of time it looks as though he’s been given a break. This level and trip are more his thing. Any cut is an unknown really but at the prices I rolled the dice in what is a shocker of a race on paper where most have questions. 3 starts ago he won well at Sedgefield before running in a hot race for the grade at Huntingdon – every horse in front of him that day has won since, as has one that was a fair way behind. The bigger field may suit here and I thought he would be ready for this one. No doubt Ella has done plenty of work on him at home.

Askamore DarsiUP What a bugger, that isn’t the first time I’ve backed him and he has thrown in the towel, I must be a jinx. He never went a yard today having travelled fine the last twice. Maybe he just hates the track. Odd. again the trainer form is a big positive but it was pace that tipped me into a tip – unless something changes tactics there is every chance that he gets an easy lead here. Young Theo is very good on these McCain front runners and this horse seems to go well for him, running consistently in recent weeks. He would have needed his first run two starts ago and probably LTO also- but he has run well there at Donny, with the front two in that race being unexposed and a big gap back to the 5th horse. He tends to come alive from December onwards, through to March and should appreciate this slightly longer trip. The hope is that he can stretch these as they turn for home and will just keep galloping. 10s was worth a play. He is only 1/6 in handicap hurdles. Tanarpino would have a chance if the headgear works but he does look a tricky ride at times, the yard isn’t really firing and he has stamina to prove. Those things combined didn’t make me bullish at 6s or so but I won’t be shocked if he goes well. Dr Newlands could well be a the main danger. But if Theo can wind this up from the front he ‘could’ get caught flat footed.

Paddling3rd- ah the day got worse for me, that topping it off. Never really in it and running on for a distant 3rd. Couldn’t go the pace in this. Hammond will find a race at some point at a low level, one to keep an eye on.  this is a poke but at 14s I couldn’t resist a nibble as he really could be anything. This horse has gone off massive prices in novice hurdles before having his first chase at the back end of last season. Sent off 33/1 he didn’t do much. He returned in his second chase at Hexham a few weeks back in gruelling conditions. He went well for a long way before plodding on. The ground and lack of a run probably catching him out. He jumped well that day. So, he could be fitter here. And he returns to better ground. Those two things, his unexposed profile, and the fact Hammond is in ok form, were enough at that price. Oh and his sire stats are interesting. I haven’t looked to see if it is 2/3 horses but his sires chase stats over the last 2 years are 18/42,22p, so maybe chasing will be Paddling’s game. I suspect there may be a few too many in here with experience and they could go a pace here which completely catches him out. But that is educated guessing and at 14s, given one day he will show himself to have a stack in hand, I took a chance. Maxed Out King – Cook will try to make all but there is some pace pressure in this and a few could go at it. But he should run his race. 9/2 or so as I deliberated didn’t lure me in for tipping purposes, but he won’t be far away. Discoverie looks out of sorts and would be a surprise winner, but he ticks all race conditions so you never know. S2 ‘could’ be about to burst into life, maybe.  It looks a competitive race on paper.

*

Re-Cap – no complaints yesterday really, Nendrum was backed from 25s to 7s and ran a decent 3rd. He led as they turned in and it was exciting for a time, before he was swamped up the straight. He seemed to pick up again and stayed on well. I need to look at Buckled again as I didn’t really consider him at 6s- I know for sure the one thing I did not even consider was the fact they may make all/get an easy lead – which as they were dropping back down in trip markedly made even more sense- if you have a horse that stays further you must use that stamina and make use of them. Miss McDonald does like riding horses from the front and is very good at it. One to note. I may have a look at her stats shortly.

Fingers crossed one of those three can win, I’d take that now, two would be a nice early Xmas present. GL with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

2.00 – Pearl Nation (m2) 10/1

3.00-

Big Amigo (m1) ES I3  6/1

Queens Royale (m1) H3 I3 9/1

*

D McCain (14/1< guide)

12.20 Catt – Irish Hawke 7/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The Week That Was: Weekly Article  – to follow, likely Tuesday afternoon

 

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • A nice couple of winners at Wolves today at 12/1 & 4/1 early, 8/1 & 5/2 SP, slightly reduced by a 20p R4 if you went for early prices.

    Qualifiers for Southwell tomorrow:
    12.30 Optimickstickhill 9/2 & Lady Lintera 6/1
    1.00 Sumner Beach 16/1
    2.00 Letmestopyouthere 7/1 & Mujassam 4/1
    2.30 Brigadoon 5/1
    3.00 Hernando Torres 22/1 & Ubla 6/1
    3.30 Monte Cinq 14/1 & Red Stripes 14/1
    All 1pt win.

    There are some better odds than mine available but not BOG for me.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 18/12/17 5:32 PM Reply


    • Yes your doing great Ken…I was out all day…baby sitting..and only got in late…another 2…can’t be bad Ken…Well done lad.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 18/12/17 10:23 PM Reply


    • Gonna fight you in the 3:30 Ken!!
      Gnaad and Angel Palanas. Southwell sprints low draws…come on put ’em up….:)

      Chris 18/12/17 11:57 PM Reply


      • Bring it on 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 19/12/17 12:35 PM Reply


  • No tips from me tomorrow. I was going to put up Buckle Street in the 13:50 at 1pt e/w however where as he was 7/1 an hour ago it has been absolutely hammered since. Do expect it to go close even if it is against my own horse who I think is a ridiculous favourite (although last time I tipped against him he hosed up so what do i know) although I feel Westy will want it considerably softer than its going to be tomorrow and we needed to run him after the Borderlands National at Kelso got cancelled although haven’t heard anything official and wont until the morning.

    I have thrown £7.50 win only on Vbadge Treat in the 12:40 at Fakenham given she was pitched straight into listed company on debut and this is easier and given she is meant to be above average looks a little overpriced.

    Nick Mazur 18/12/17 10:13 PM Reply


    • BTW official opinion on Westy is he has a fair e/w chance. Do with that as you wish.

      Nick Mazur 19/12/17 9:37 AM Reply


  • I don’t know whether to take it as a compliment,but Bet365 have removed all specials from my account,BOG,4/1+ etc,wouldn’t mind but that account was in a downswing and there possibly a 25/1 chance that I would have to deposit funds,never mind there are lots of other accounts and as most of my bets mainly contract,nothing to get vexed about.Did anyone else here get any similar Christmas good wishes

    gearoid180468 19/12/17 7:47 AM Reply


    • Yeah it seems to be the culling period as I lost mine last week. Do still have offers but they have limited me to the point that they are willing to accept about £50 of liability on ITV races on the day.

      Nick Mazur 19/12/17 7:57 AM Reply


  • Bet365 did the same to me about 18 months ago. When i tried to get a bet on i was only allowed pennies on ( around 40p). Same as you i wasnt winning much at all. I contacted them and they said something like mine is not the sort of account they want. I spoke to somebody from another bookmaker and he believes its because i was constantly beating SP and it didnt matter whether they won or not. A lot of people think Bet365 are the best thing since sliced bread and claim they are always getting free bets from them.

    Roddo 19/12/17 8:03 AM Reply


  • That will do it for sure Roddo,we know as punters that beating sp is where the profits are long term.Think most bookmakers would drop all sports where the result cant be fixed in their favor. If you walk into any bookies nowadays real sports are in a small pokey,while cartoon races and numbers games takes prominence,just as in supermarkets

    gearoid180468 19/12/17 8:21 AM Reply


  • Just to counter the adverse criticism of Bet365 it did refund bets on yesterday’s heavy odds on favourite which refused to race. That of course doesn’t excuse the limiting of accounts mentioned above.

    Tom 19/12/17 8:32 AM Reply


    • I did speak with someone at 365 about being allowed to have an account again? They generously said to me I could bet up to £50 per day with them and so I have a bet on the selections from SP2A with it. Their prices dont seem so good as before to me?

      martin colwell 19/12/17 10:00 AM Reply


  • Paddy Power withdrew my BOG last week, without telling me. I only found out when a winner went out a point and I noticed I hadn’t been paid on SP. Trader decision I’m told. Thats the fifth one with Betfair Sportsbook, Stan James, Corals and Bet Bright.

    geoffwylde 19/12/17 9:28 AM Reply


  • We have only the one small independent Bookies in our little town, but right next door is a Health Centre

    Is it strategically placed for shocked punters who have accounts closed or reduced, or is it for a punter who manages a big-priced winner and needs medical attention….and its closed on Mondays & Saturdays so best not have a bet on those days !!

    Norman 19/12/17 10:03 AM Reply


  • When I lost or had severe restrictions on my household name a/c’s a few year ago I opened some with small bookies both here and the odd one in Ireland. Still lost them for one spurious excuse or another.
    I did find a really good one in Loughborough called ‘Rob the Bookie’. Only took phone bets but gave bog up to a ton stake based on laddies odds. Sadly no longer trading but a trawl on google may unearth someone else doing similar.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 19/12/17 10:23 AM Reply


  • About 6 months ago I won £280 on the Saturday lost £150 on the Sunday with bet fair sports book on the Thursday they set me an e-mail telling me I would not be allowed bog or any other promotions but we’re free to use their casino site never used them since reckon it was because I was using oddschecker when they we’re going the best price

    Michael Shields 19/12/17 10:45 AM Reply


  • One that catches my eye at the price is Lady Sandy 12.30.David Barron has hit form recently.3-6 with 2yo at Southwell,has Ben Curtis up,who i think may be replacement for Gibbons on AW at least this season,its an e/w price but the ones going 4places are slightly worse odds so its 16/1 win bet365

    gearoid180468 19/12/17 10:58 AM Reply


  • Couple of years ago wanted £20 ew on Luke Donald at 9/1 told by Ladbrokes that they would only accept
    fifty pence ew and that is the only stake they will accept now,guess the traders are quite pleased for they have not closed the account!!!!
    LEE BOLINGBROKE do not have anything to do with this tipster for in December so far one winner at 5/4 from 7 bets if you want to back odds up to 6/4 then he is the one,not worked out if i have it wrong and it is a lay service for his record is 3 winning months from 12(counting December a losing month)and a large loss over the year if you backed his bets.
    His record 27 winners from 109 bets largest price winner 5/1 or 6.94 BFEX

    colin leafe 19/12/17 11:00 AM Reply


  • At the end of the day all bookmakers do this. I suspect Martin Colwell probably has some suggestions at avoiding restrictions given he must have had more experience with it than most as a professional. Bet365 are generally the best and they keep your accounts the longest. Generally I would was William Hill and Paddy Power are next best. Of the others you will be lucky to win a few hundred before they shut you down. I have lost an account from 2 bets before.

    Nick Mazur 19/12/17 11:04 AM Reply


    • Yes I am an avoider by experience. I mostly trade now but still have a few accounts with bookmakers. I can point in the right direction. Rather than write a lengthy message here you can email me at mcolwell1959@aol.com and I can come up with something to share. I did it a while ago here I think?

      martin colwell 19/12/17 1:20 PM Reply


  • having a just for fun patent on 3 that all have been out of sorts lately but are now weighted on or below their last winning mark and if (a very big if) coming back to anywhere near their best form would have good chances.
    fakenham
    1-10 Sam Noir
    1-40 Mercers Court
    2-10 Gin And Tonic

    gl all if your having a punt today.

    martin whittle 19/12/17 11:13 AM Reply


  • You may all find this of interest, in regards to the discussion above…

    https://punthub.co.uk/useful-reading/bookies-tricks-revealed/

    Just been tweeted that by someone, worth a flick through,
    Josh

    Josh 19/12/17 12:49 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Thanks for the Punthub article all very interesting especially 8,9 and 10
    Few months ago i put up article about
    Paddy Power buying Betfair
    Ladbrokes buying BetDaq
    as expected it is to manipulate the markets which is now showing on exchange prices for which i can only bet on having all my bookmaker accounts heavily restricted or closed,contacted channel 4 racing when Ladbrokes were in talks with Betfair stating my concerns and of course there was no reply from them.
    Targeting the young a grave concern as there are approx 12 premier league football clubs who have a bookmakers name on the front of the shirts this should be stopped.
    Super Bookmakers taking over each other this as been going on for years a good friend of mine had 3 independent shops 1 in Derby and 2 in Nottingham,one of the big four approached him many years ago to buy him out informed him that if he did not sell they would open shops close to his and force him out,he sold and he now as 30 pitches on different courses,why over all these years no one as stood up to the bookmakers who put so little back in racing,just 2 or 3 years ago a horse won 10 races on the AW and it did not cover the years training fees and they wonder why there is corruption and when Barney Curly pulled off a coup the bookmakers cried foul and in some cases did not want to pay out yet recently they were giving enhanced odds to David Evans who as been found guilty and i believed fined.
    We all want bookmakers do we over in France because of the Pari Mutial tote style system a £2000 race in the UK the same grade in France will be worth around £10000 all the money from the Pari Mutual goes back into racing not into hotels as was the case when betting became legal and Ladbrokes used racing as a cash cow to open their range of Ladbrokes hotels.
    Rant over but my love of the horse and racing is to strong having groomed and rode them competed in show jumping and cross country at my age of 63 i still wonder why people in power have not taken the bookmakers to task,could not get any brown envelopes today o well maybe tomorrow.

    colin leafe 19/12/17 3:47 PM Reply


  • Well said Colin the state of the bookmakers industry is an utter disgrace.The way that they restrict/ban winning punters is bang out of order and I for one have had a gut full,we need a law like in Australia where a bookmaker has to lay for a reasonable amount otherwise take their licence away.Rant over got to prepare for tomorrow night when the cider will be flowing at Ashton Gate for sure

    christopher jones 19/12/17 5:53 PM Reply


    • Chris
      Good luck for tomorrow night from a Derby fan little surprised how well you are doing this season especially after selling your best asset at the time to villa.
      We play them in the cup early January at old trafford and cannot stand them moved the game to friday night
      8.00 kick off no train for the fans to get home not on tv charging £45 for the fans for which our fantastic owner mel morris will give the fans £15 back,this is a hard game for the fans to get to by road and man city play burnley saturday which burnley fans have to travel 30 miles utter madness,another sport which as lost it way to the grass root supporters.
      Good Luck
      Colin

      colin leafe 19/12/17 6:51 PM Reply


  • My biggest gripe is when sky moves the game after you’ve bought train/hotel tickets,it just happened to me when we play you Colin really annoying #againstmodernfootball

    christopher jones 19/12/17 7:24 PM Reply


Post A Reply