Members Daily Post: 18/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Musselburgh

12.40 – Maraweh (m1) 9/1 UP

2.15 – Buckled (hncp hurdle) 13/2 WON 13/2>4/1 

2.50 –

Doktor Glaz (hncp chase) H3 I1 G1 9/4 S4 UP

Shanroe Street (m1) H3 G3 6/1 UP

3.20 –

Kings Wharf (hncp hurdle) I3 9/1  UP 7/1 

Nendrum (hncp hurdle) 25/1 S2 3rd 25/1>7/1 

 

Plumpton

1.50 – City Supreme (m1) 14,30 I1 5/1 UP

3.00 – Easter In Paris (m1)  I3 6/1 2nd 

 

Ffos Las

12.30 –

Hands of Stone (m1+m2) ES 13/2 S3 UP 8/1  UP

Princess Roania (m1+m2) 11/1 S2 3rd 9/1 

2.40 – Potters Story (m1) G3 4/1  WON 4/1>9/4 

3.15 –

Cracked Rear View (m1) 14,30 7/2  UP

Wood Yer (m1) ES+ H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4   UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 17th Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/163, +111.4) (1 point win bets)

 

12.30 Ffos Las – Hands Of Stone – 15/2 (bet365/Skyb/Betfs/BetBri) UP 8/1

3.20 Muss – Nendrum – 25/1 ((bet365/PP/BV/Betfs)

 

Hands Of Stone… UP..hmm, he’s been a bit keen there I think, travelled into the straight well but wasn’t much left in the tank- maybe he hasn’t relished conditions. anything could happen with this one and my gut says more likely to be tailed off, but 15/2 has just lured me in… were he to bolt up i’d curse myself afterwards as he has that profile where it can be dangerous to second guess connections, if you like the price. He makes handicap hurdle debut here, Williams 2/13,4p at the track with such types. The horse moves up in trip by 1/2 a mile and down into a C5, he runs on heavy. All of those are reasons for why he may suddenly improve and show himself to be very well handicapped. Or he could just be moderate. He did show some ability in bumpers at least. Having watched his last race he doesn’t look the biggest to my eye and it could be this weight,in this ground, weighs him down. This is nothing to say he wont handle this ground but Ffos Las Heavy can be a bit of a specialism so we shall see. I did have a look at Evan Williams horses running in handicap hurdles that were 80/1 + LTO and they were 2/6 or so… not really a reason to be put off. I suspect the Olly Murphy horse will go very close to winning this, but this one has that ‘could be anything’ profile, although ideally we’d have seen a bit more over hurdles.

Nendrum… well a bit of a poke here which may come to nothing, but the sort of horse that would leave me sick were he to win. He is having his third start for the yard, his third handicap hurdle and he drops down 5f and goes RH. He is very lightly raced for his age and has clearly had problems. His run in September was after 561 days off and he could well have ‘bounced’ returning 18 days later at Kelso. He’s had another 71 days off here, and the tongue tie returns. Maybe he has had another problem, or maybe they have tinkered with his wind or something. Fitness isn’t a concern for this yard if they want them ready. He can race prominently, along with his stablemate, and those two could be up top for a long way in this. I have no idea why miss McDonald isn’t on either of his two in this but I won’t try and think too deeply with 25/1 shots. Obviously when dealing with horses in this range there is a lot of uncertainty and not many will go in.  I wouldn’t fall off my seat if this one bounced into life, hence the play at 25s. I’ve had some change on Kings Wharf also, who may well be an S5 qualifier anyway… he may try and lead, and it’s his second start for the yard- i don’t think fitness would have been an issue the last day but he led approaching the second last – i suspect he was just outpaced which may happen again- but maybe Quinlan can be ultra aggressive on him and play catch me if you can. Not impossible. 

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Of the rest…well I though the two S4 horses looked solid enough so we shall see how they go. Potters Story is unexposed/doing something different (ground/big drop in trip/field size/tongue tie on), but 4/1 was too short for me…we know what happens now! It is a small enough field and Bowen is in ok form. A case can be made, I won’t jinx him for you by tipping him!

 

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Ffos Las ‘Through The Card’ Notes

(for those going racing, which is at least one of you) 

Part 1: trainer pointers using HRB in race type at track, starting points

12.30 – Hands of Stone / Flanagans Field / Princess Roania / Double Court / Moontripper

1.00 – Rizzardo / Savoy Court / Caroles Vigilante / Oxwicch Bay

1.30 – Kit casey / Alf N Dor / Cougars Gold / Corbett Court

2.05 – all

2.40 – Potters Story

3.15 – Misty Mai / Magical Man

3.45 – Bachy baby / A Book of Intrigue

 

Part 2: If i were going track side, after a brief look, i’d throw something at…

12.30 – Hands of Stone / Hurricane Rita

1.00- Savoy Court / Rizzardo for fun EW change (market suggests no chance though, handicapping project no doubt)

1.30 – Alf N Dor / Kit Casey (hope rested on blinkers)

2.05 – pass

2.40 – Potters Story

3.15 – Wood Yer

3.45 – Bachy Baby

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

2.00 Wolvs – X Rated (m2) H3 I3 9/2

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.30 FL – Minella Scamp (m3)

3.45 FL – A Book Of Intrigue (m2)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE: I will be travelling back to the family home in Suffolk on Monday afternoon, through to the 29th of December or so. I’ll get any Tuesday qualifiers posted before I leave, with any ratings pointers likely to follow later in the evening. Obviously there won’t be any change in service, bar no videos, as I don’t have the software/kit on my laptop, although i’ll see if I can work on that.

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Results Update: Summary below, link in Key updated

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 3/15,9p, +7.58  
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 3/12,6p, +10.58
  • S1 (0/0) S2 (1/4,1p, +15) S3 (0/2,2p, -2) S3A (0/3,1p, -3) S4 (2/6,5p, -1.42) S5 (0/1,0p, -1)

NOTES – 0/6, -6

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David Peat Profiles Updates: Read HERE>>>

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+108 points… Not to put the pressure on him but if you missed reading through the comments on Sunday our own Nick Mazur is on +108 points or so for his ‘tips’, posted in the comments (when there is staking advice,usually 1 point EW) since Sept 1st. I was intrigued to see what the total was as I thought it may be decent enough! Useful info if/when deciding whether to follow him in. 🙂

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

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  • Be interesting to see how Minella Scamp,another refugee from Tony Martins yard gets on,its also a ridiculous price as Nick(Top Tipping There) alluded to recently.Neither of Paddy’s are worth following at the prices.No matter how good a strategy is,value has to be the number one factor.On the matter of Sunday racing being better for finding value bets,my own theory is (1) There aren’t many tipsters muddying the water and (2) The Saturday Mug Punter effect,this is typically the man who shuffles between pub and bookies,after seventeen pints of Guiness asking what is McCoy on today,no point explaining that he has retired,guiness breath cannot be tolerated for more than a few seconds,anyway these smp’s aren’t price sensitive and the bookies know they can rake it in week after week.On Sunday our smp is too hung over or broke

    gearoid180468 17/12/17 6:51 PM Reply


  • Evening all. Since I started tipping on Tuesday, if you’d followed all my tips at the same odds as me, you would’ve earned 30pts profit or £150 to £5 stakes. This is beyond my wildest expectations and hope it’s not a flash in the pan. Hope some of you benefited from my tips.
    Qualifiers for Wolverhampton tomorrow:
    2.00 Mr Red Clubs 25/1 & X Rated 13/2
    2.35 Haraz 4/1
    3.10 Plucky Dip 15/1 (Lads Boost) & Poppy in the Wind 12/1
    3.40 Brockey Rise 12/1
    4.10 Zalshah 7/1
    4.40 Carp Kid 4/1 & Blue Harmony 6/1

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 17/12/17 6:58 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken…i think your selections have huge potential…Did you not paper trade them first to see if they stood the test of time before writing them up. I have my picks on the AW…but won’t put them up because, unlike yours, they are not consistent enough.
      BOL with yours Ken..They have huge potential.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 17/12/17 9:01 PM Reply


      • Hi Tony – Yes I paper traded for a while, then when I was reasonably comfortable with the results I started with £1 per point. Since then I’ve back tested against historic results and refined the strategy. I will still tinker with it to find better angles (if possible) but it does seem to work very well, some tracks better than others, with Newcastle being the notable exception. I was certainly nervous about putting them up but so far it has gone well.

        Ken McKenzie 17/12/17 9:18 PM Reply


    • 4.10 Zalshah is NR. Craving 4/1 is now a qualifier.

      Ken McKenzie 18/12/17 1:15 PM Reply


    • Poppy in the Wind popped up at 8/1 early price 12s.

      Nice one Ken

      Mike

      mickeydee 18/12/17 3:16 PM Reply


      • Thanks Mike.

        Ken McKenzie 18/12/17 3:28 PM Reply


    • Well done Ken, another 2 winners at good prices…..might have throw some shekels at them in the future!!
      3.5 pts profit to SP is good work from 9 picks, obviously bigger if backed early…impressive for a murky Monday.

      Chris 18/12/17 5:48 PM Reply


  • hi ken,i have been following you but just £1 on each,not complaining though as your system appears to be throwing the winners up.Long may you and your system continue,as the more winners we get in our little club,the better for all of us.

    william 17/12/17 7:29 PM Reply


    • Thanks William.

      Ken McKenzie 17/12/17 9:18 PM Reply


  • Ken when you put lads boost beside selection is that a Ladbrokes bet boost because with them not going bog till 9.30 in the mornings or are they overnight bog these days ??

    Aaron Lumsden 17/12/17 8:46 PM Reply


    • Aaron – According to Ladbrokes T&C’s they offer BOG on early board prices. As far as i know the Bookies that give BOG on early board prices are Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, Boyle Sports, Paddy Power & Betfair, although the latter two (same group) have removed my BOG (must be doing something right, I suppose!). There may be others but I think that’s the main ones. As you get one boost per day on racing, I just pick a higher odds horse at random really.

      Ken McKenzie 17/12/17 9:27 PM Reply


      • Well done Ken. One thing I would say is that with this number of selections (volume) it makes it difficult to produce a long term profit. Although I do not share all my bets, as I am asked not to by those who provide me with info, I try to trim it to 2 to 3 max per day. I do not know whether your system can be tweaked so? This is not a criticism but some advice from someone who does this full time (although not just horse racing).

        martin colwell 17/12/17 10:21 PM Reply


        • Hi Martin. No problem with your comments. I did think the number of selections might put some folk off and if I was looking at a new tipster, I’d find it difficult to justify taking that number of selections without sufficient evidence of success. All I can say is that this strategy appears to be working. I have refined it and I am looking at other angles but without data to support an alternative strategy at this point, I’m reluctant to reduce the number of picks. I suppose the way to look at it is like Josh says, use it as a starting point then use your own judgement if you don’t want to take them all. I will post weekly results good or bad, which can be proof checked against my posts, then hopefully you can gain some confidence in my system.

          Ken McKenzie 17/12/17 10:58 PM Reply


          • Hi Ken,
            Nothing wrong with lots of selections per day if you’re ok with it yourself, you’ll still get the same losing streaks but the wait for the next winner will obviously come sooner rather than later. If your methods/systems are sound you’ll still win in the long run. Good luck going forward and don’t stop if it starts going a bit wobbly!

            Chris 17/12/17 11:27 PM Reply


            • Thanks Chris.

              Ken McKenzie 17/12/17 11:42 PM Reply


          • Ok Ken, good luck. The point I was making was that I am not aware of any tipster who makes a long term profit with volume selections. But only time tells and I hope you are successful.

            martin colwell 18/12/17 8:04 AM Reply


          • Hi Ken
            A breath of fresh air some one who will put up their results weekly,would you also record to SP as well for i would imagine there are a few on here who are unable to have BOG through restrictions and accounts closed.
            Only advice i can pass onto you is to not tweak your system to much for if it works why change,had a tipping line which Betting School proofed for me and Andrew at Optimum Racing operated a subscription line for me with good success for a period but when i hit a poor run he got into my head about change my bet selection and then it went further down hill,after stopping the racing line i still put up the golf bets for a further 18 months for him.
            Wish you all the best with your system have not had a bet yet but that may change in January.
            Cheers
            Colin

            colin leafe 18/12/17 9:36 AM Reply


            • Thanks Colin. I may change the system but only if I find a flaw or if I find a better angle eg. Newcastle. I’m not too sure about using SP. I’ll have a think about it.

              Ken McKenzie 18/12/17 12:53 PM Reply


      • Betfred used to be bog from 8am on the morning of racing. Not sure if they have changed as I stopped using them
        Peter

        pjacks 18/12/17 9:11 AM Reply


  • Grams And Ounces Plumpton Monday 14:25 1pt e/w-I think there are question marks against most of the field with the favourite priced up where he is because of the Skelton factor (I know he can get them fit but horse not finished better than 8th off a 90+ day break). Grams and Ounces is a solid performer at this level and until disappointing LTO he hadn’t placed out of the first 4 in his previous 7 races (ironically he was joint favourite LTO). I am always willing to forgive one bad run. Mikey Hamill returns to the saddle here and he has 4 places from 5 rides on the horse. He won’t mind the ground and is race fit which is something you cant say about most of these. Trainer has had 2 places from her last 4 runners and the jockey has placed 62% of the time for the trainer in hurdles. The likelihood that he will finish 2nd or 3rd (or 4th) but I definitely he is good enough to win this and thought 10s was a bit of value.

    Nick Mazur 17/12/17 9:06 PM Reply


    • Cheers Nick…i’ll get on early before g/g/kids watching happens again..

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 17/12/17 9:09 PM Reply


    • Have also decided to chuck £5 ew (I suspect you might get better with bfsp) on Astigos in the 15:15. Probably a donation but at the odds couldn’t help myself. Never a bad thing to be carrying 9st11lbs over 26f at Ffos Llas on heavy and jockey and trainer had a big priced winner on Saturday.

      Nick Mazur 17/12/17 9:22 PM Reply


      • Well that was fun. Got the heart racing for a while there. Nice 50/1 2nd to make up for the shite official tip.

        Nick Mazur 18/12/17 3:25 PM Reply


    • The Fav likely wins this race if it shows the form it showed last season but that is an if and so the 10/1 looks value each way here. I do not like Fav’s on a Monday as well.

      martin colwell 17/12/17 10:29 PM Reply


  • one from my notebook today, Venutius runs in the 2-00 wolves off a mark of 67 last won over a year ago off 73, last 4 runs have been abysmal but every now and again the old boy throws in a good one. 33-1 skybet but will be much bigger on BF and i’ll have a very speculative £2 for a bit of fun.

    martin whittle 18/12/17 7:44 AM Reply


    • Does the rider have any pony racing experience, in Ireland?

      chrisrees 18/12/17 10:47 AM Reply


  • Thanks for confirming that Ken
    on another theme as for giving a gang of tips and it not been profitable – I’m not sure about long term but do you remember the guy that left last week claiming the subs were too much after he gave his bird 10 grand (it’s cheaper for a hit man) and the service he went too rods runners he sends out up to 10-15 selections on a normal day and betting gods sent 3 of them as free tips this morning how about canyouhearmenow @ 250/1 12.20 plum.

    Aaron Lumsden 18/12/17 9:25 AM Reply


    • Quoted @ 1000 currently on BF.

      chrisrees 18/12/17 10:44 AM Reply


    • I missed your comment this morning Aaron. Just as well. 2nd last lol!

      Ken McKenzie 18/12/17 1:27 PM Reply


      • I’m terrible sorry I should of made it clear earlier on I had no intention of backing that selection @200/1 each way side way or any other way it was just an example of a 15 selection tipper if you go into a barbers enough times eventually you will get a hair cut
        I subscribe to betting gods news letter and he throws in sample tips from one of his stable of tipsters every day
        I’m terrible sorry if anyone backed that as a result of me highlighting it
        Stick to our own systems (proven over time ) and the highlighted comment imputters including Ken who’s tips are in there infancy but are ahead
        Once again sincere apologys in fact if anyone wants to forward me there bank details I’ll reimburse you ha ha ( in my best Nigerian prince accent )

        Aaron Lumsden 18/12/17 2:36 PM Reply


  • P 1.20 Landin to take on the 2 market leaders e/w @12’s b365. Reasonably consistent sort who fluffed a jump late on lto when going well and tried to make amends but too late.
    GL
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 18/12/17 10:34 AM Reply


    • I will go with Sam Brown in this race as an each way alternative. It needed its FTO run and will step forward today but has the two fancied horses to beat.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 18/12/17 10:54 AM Reply


  • Tom O Brien was originally booked to ride Easter In Paris,was surprised then to see Nick Schofield was the jockey on board,knew there and then horse had no chance,he is a good jockey but not for Hendersons 2-48 in chases,obviously told Tom not to waste petrol.

    gearoid180468 18/12/17 4:29 PM Reply


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