Free Daily Post: 16/12/17 (complete)

TIPS

2017 Total: 18/180, +84.5 points

3.20 Donc – Vibrato Valtat – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 2nd (neck), ahhh, when it’s not going for you… brave run, no complaints. Bugger. 

A bit of a poke here but I wasn’t tempted to the top 5 in the market here who are all between 9/2 – 13/2 who all have some sort of question to answer, in the context of their price. Well, every horse in here has a mark against them I think but clearly something will step forward. No doubt it will be one of those 5 but none of the prices seemed generous to my eyes and I just couldn’t leave this one alone at 12s.

Vibrato Valtat – the first thing to say is that he may not stay, it is unknown territory, but I get a decent price to find out. This is his first ever run beyond 21f and only the 7th handicap chase of his life. Under Paul Nicholls he was highly tried. Reaching a mark in the high 150s, low 160s, he was mainly kept to competitive G1s+2s. This is his third run for Emma Lavelle and he now finds himself on a mark of 145, able to compete in some less competitive races. It could be that now aged 8 he can get into a rhythm better over this distance, given they will generally go a slower pace than over 2m4f. He could just lob along and he may relish this step up. He could not of course, but it is a complete unknown. Lavelle is 11/38,13p all runners here in the last 5 years, 5/11,6p when Leighton rides them here and she is 3/15,7p with horses she moves in trip by 20% or more from their last run. Her horses have been running ok. So, there are some stats there to lend support to his cause. He showed some promise the last day and this is a weaker C2 than his last run. He could now be spot on after 2 runs this season. This race should reveal whether he has a future at this trip or not I think. His mark should get to a point one day where he can win handicaps, let’s hope that’s today. I don’t know what the ground is here at Donny as it seemed testing enough yesterday. I don’t think it is ‘good’ as such, maybe sticky/tacky – I don’t really know- but it is a niggle for those who may want a proper decent surface. Educated guesswork on that front.

I wasn’t tempted by the other 3 at bigger odds but any market support for Honeyball’s or Jonjos could be significant. They both have a few too many questions for me, even if you forgive recent poor form.

Pace- well there could be plenty on here as 3/4 like to get on with it. Hopefully VV can just settle behind any leaders and pop away. We shall see if there is much left in the tank as they reach the business end.

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

1.20 Chelt – Gino Trail

1.30 Here – Jayo Time  (x2 angles)

T George Chasers

1.20 Chelt- Bun Doran

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.40 Chelt – Oscar Rose (12/1<)

1.20 Chelt – Sire De Grugy (14/1<)

 

**

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Stats/Trends/Pointers

Given it has been a bit quiet I have repeated the below from my members’ post, for you to mull over as you please.

Well Sykes gave me quite a thrill for my nibble at BFSP, 43.00 – I thought I had that won when he kicked for home as everything in behind looked to be struggling. Sadly there was an unexposed Twister horse that relished the step up in trip and out-stayed him. Bugger. Still, it was good fun. Let’s see if we can crack the ‘Caspian Caviar Gold Cup’ . Some caution as this has a smaller field than usual which ‘could’ render any stats pointless.  We shall see…

The Winning Profile?

10/10 aged 8 or younger (18/18 aged 8<)

10/10 Top 2 at least once last 3 runs

10/10 1+ run this season

10/10 placed on at least once on last two starts

10/10 up in trip no further than 2f from last run (so 18f LTO shortest)

10/10 carried 11-8 or less including claims. No horse has carried more than that to victory in 18 years, let alone 10, without the help of a claim. (only 0/17,4p last 10, but makes fav short maybe)

Shortlist: Starchitect / Roman De Senam / Foxtail Hill / Guitar Pete / Deauville Dancer

9/10 ran 21-45 days ago (1/54,6p outside of this), 9/10 had 2-4 runs this season (1 only, 1/49,11p)

Shortlist: those would leave … Starchitect / Roman De Senam / Foxtail Hill

As always, use that info how you please.

 

 

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • Always liked Vibrato Valtat; recall it winning very nicely one day at Warwick 3-4 years back beating a particular favourite of mine (Thomas Crapper); the pair of them gave as good a display of fast accurate jumping as you will see and Warwick is tough as there are 3-4 down the back that come very quickly at you.

    As you say; all about rhythm and stamina but a lovely horse who should win more than enough for Emma Lavelle and IF it can get 3 miles opens up all kinds of new opportunities.

    Good Luck! (even though I fancy 2 others more LOL)

    Ian SP2A 16/12/17 11:06 AM Reply


    • GL! Yep I thought at 12s I would have a dart- If, and it is a big if, he sees out this trip, he should be out-running those odds. Hopefully one of us has the winner… I can’t work out that Jonjo horse, but he is a qualifier in my stats and on one of my strategies (that’s on a horror run and could do with a winner) – I was struggling to see him having enough for this but the race has a strange feel about it, so who knows. He does stay further so if could find some form, and not take a few fences home with him, he may out-run his odds.
      Josh

      Josh 16/12/17 11:43 AM Reply


  • That was soooo close Josh good run for our money thanks Richard

    Richard Dickens 16/12/17 3:31 PM Reply


    • that was bitter sweet Richard.. quite dismissive of the winner, but was a stats qualifier 18s in members’ post that needed a winner – but for my own professional pride and indeed the bank balance, i’d have preferred the gutsy grey to win. Can’t complain with that, decent run, so very close- winner stays 3m4f and that has won it in end, just out-stayed.

      Josh 16/12/17 3:34 PM Reply


      • UL mate. At least it was beaten by a SP2A winner. Fairly certain you didn’t jinx them by sending that email out.

        Nick Mazur 16/12/17 3:53 PM Reply


        • haha, for once! and he won for S2 – so I can’t complain- more professional pride annoyance at not giving more consideration to tipping him – was as sure as I could be the top 5 were well worth taking on. Still, I can’t complain with those two fighting out out, miles clear of the rest.

          Josh 16/12/17 3:56 PM Reply


  • A couple of nice winner’s there Ian…got 18s for Jonjo’s and along with Mumulla winning and Graceful legend paying 20s for 4 places a smashing day…Great shout Ian.

    Tony Mc.

    VV had me squeaky bummed though ….Sorry Josh.

    tonymc 16/12/17 4:07 PM Reply


  • Been out Christmas shopping and just got in to hear about Starchitect. No words can explain how connections must feel and takes gloss off any winners to be honest. I’d gladly give them back if Stachitect could be safe and sound.

    Sadly that won’t happen but a great warrior, died doing what he loved and all thoughts for connections, especially lads and lassies who look after these horses with such love and pride!

    Ian SP2A 16/12/17 5:16 PM Reply


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