Members Daily Post: 15/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Doncaster

11.50-

Cajun Fiddle (all hncps + hncp chase) I1 11/2   UP

Baron Du Plessis (all hncps) G3 15/2    3rd 

The Tailgator (m1) 7/1 WON 8/1 

1.35 – Keep In Line (all hncps) H3 G1 7/2   UP 4/1

2.10 – Capard King (m1) 8/1 UP

3.20 –

Perfect Summer (all hncps) 5/1 UP

Big Penny (m1) H1 I3 G3 13/8 S4 2nd 3/1 

 

Bangor

1.10 –

Bernardelli (hncp chase + all hncps) 14 H3 I3 10/1 S2 S5 UP

Forest Des Aigles (hncp chase) H1 I3 G3 8/13 S4 WON 5/6 

2.20 –

Western Rules (all hncps) 14 I3 G1 11/4  UP

Tawseef (m1) 14, 30 I3 G3 2/1  WON 5/2 

2.55 –

Wazowski (m1 + m1) 14,30 ES+ H1 I1 G1 4/1  S3A S4 2nd 

Princess Mononoke (m1 + m2) 14,30 ES+ H3 I1 G3 5/1 S3A S4   UP

 

Cheltenham

1.20 – Okotoks (m1) 30 9/2 UP

1.55 –

Viking Mistress (all hncps) 16/1 S2 UP

Time For West (m1) G3 5/1  BD

2.30 – Wotzizname (all hncps) H3 I1 G3 5/2 S4 UP

3.05 – More of That (m1 + m2) I1 G3 9/1  PU

 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/161, +113.4) (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES

1.35 Donc – Keep In Line – 4/1 UP 4/1

1.20 Chelt – Okotoks – 4/1 UP 5/1 

 

I’m just going to smile, or cry, I haven’t worked out which yet. They were poor, Okotoks more understandable- he travelled strongly, maybe too keen, and the market weakness told. He may have done too much but looked like he would get involved as they turned for home, but didn’t pick up. Keep In Line- well he hasn’t run his race for whatever reason, never in it, jumped poorly. I wont use going as an excuse, whatever type of ground it is. Ah. Safe to say i’m out of form, but then again keeping up a 100%+ ROI wasn’t going to happen, down to 68%. It will turn, at some point. I dodged the 11.50 Donny as all three were unexposed/could be anything, over fences. Not a shock win for Tailgator, given his profile. He has gone well fresh in before. Partly influenced by Jonjo being 0/24 with Donny cappers returning 60+ days and the fact he was rock bottom of HRB/GG ratings. I can live with leaving him, if i’d have tipped him the Williams horse would have won! Hopefully some of you had a nibble. 

 

I’ve been torturing myself over these two (the price) and I’ve nearly given myself a headache. In  the end i’ve decided i’d be more annoyed if one/both win and I didn’t back them than if they both capitulate with me in hindsight going ‘ah i’m useless at judging price at this end of the market!’ – one of the two scenarios will unfold so we have that to look forward to. In the end there were enough positives for me to think 4s could underestimate their chances a tad.

Keep In Line – it’s his fourth handicap hurdle start and he steps back up in trip here. (King is 10/37,17p with horses he moves in trip by 20% one way or the other from last run, and I think that stat is what tipped me into tipping territory) The other two times he tried 19/20f over hurdles was in a G2 on soft (outclassed/ground an issue) and in a hot C2 at Kempton (fell 3 out when yet to make a move/held up). He comes here fit and in form, the trainer bringing him to a track he excels at. He is a strong traveller who may not have the gears at the business end for 16f, unless it is a big field cavalry charge and they all fall in a hole. The form of his last race is decent enough with the two in front of him franking the form (1-2 NTO, reversed placings) So, there is some substance there. Before Hutch hit the button LTO he was tanking and I suspect he could have just kept going at that pace, which hopefully he does over this 3 extra, keeping on when others have folded. He has a couple of ratings pointers to boost confidence as to what he has achieved on paper recently so we shall see. At 4s i’ve just convinced myself to have a go.

Okotoks – this horse ticks a lot of boxes, so many, that I just couldn’t resist- and what appears to be market support can only boost confidence given his profile. He really is in the ‘could be anything’ category and has the most fascinating profile of any horse in this race by some way, to my eye at least. It’s his 3rd handicap hurdle, he is down markedly in trip, back on soft and down in class. So he is unexposed and doing plenty differently, including now being trained elsewhere. It’s his first run for Fergal O’Brien who usually improves horses for his care. He is 6/23,10p with such types first time up for him, in the last 12 months. Trainer/Jockey are 4/16,8p at the track in the last 12 month. The yard continues in decent form and he has readied a handicap hurdler to win after a break here before. We know he can get them fit if he wants. It could be they have a Festival target in mind and if that is the case he does need to get up the handicap a tad. If he is a1 here he could win this like a 2/1 shot. We shall see.

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Of the rest…

Bernardelli – he is no forlorn hope in this and I am interested to see how he goes. Not impossible he breaks the S2/S5 horror run. (S2 more horrifying than S5, but both could do with a winner or five) The fav probably bolts up but if he doesn’t run his race/doesn’t stay (he should) this rogue could be in the right spot. They may even try and make all- they should. I suspect he may need this run and I say that given the following…. on the third run of every season, since his first run in a handicap in 2013, he is a perfect 1,1,1,1. No doubt he will mess  that up this year but do add to your notebooks for his next start – especially if they then swap this headgear for blinkers and maybe drop him back to 20-22f over a course he has won at. He isn’t sure to stay here but that isn’t proven – 1 run in handicaps over 3m and he placed. If they go a slow pace here there may be less emphasis on stamina. He may throw in the towel and be tailed off but I threw £5 at him to see.

The 2.55 Bangor- well it probably is about whether the fav runs his race- it is a different set up here- different track, drop in trip, small field/tactical – but he did hack up at Exeter when flagged at 10s in the ‘through the card’ video. He may do so again. But you never know. Of the two McCain horses i’d fancy Wazowski to exploit any chinks, they should try and make all. He is consistent although doesn’t win too often. There are 5 S4 qualifiers and with any luck a few will go in.

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As always, GL with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather 

Chelmsford

5.45 – Outlaw Torn (all hncps) H3 I1 11/2 S2 S4

7.45 –

Born To Finish (m2) 14 ES H3 I3 G1 4/1 S2 S3 S4 

Nautical Haven (m2) 5/1

Pearl Spectre (m2) H3 I1 5/1  S2

8.45 – Mr Potter (all hncps) I3 10/1

 

Dundalk

7.00 – Have  A Nice Day (m2) H1 8/1 S6

7.30 – Whatever It Takes (3yo+) 20/1

8.00 –

Pass The Ball (3yo+) H3 11/4

Taste The Salt (m1) 18/1

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D McCain (14/1< guide)

11.50 Donc – Kilronan Castle (m1,m2) UP

1.35 Donc – Clondaw Kaempfer (m2) UP

2.20 Bang – Tawseef (m3) WON 5/2 

2.55 Bang – Wazowski 2nd

 

Paddy Brennan 

3.40 Chelt – Anteros (14/1< guide, m1) UP 16/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

‘The Magic Formula’: article to follow (taking longer than anticipated)

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Cheltenham December Meeting, ‘Big Meeting Notes‘: Read HERE>>>

 

Trainer Notes: Day 1 

12.10 – Sartene’s Son

12.45 – Tintern Theatre

1.55 – Time For West

2.30 – Southfield Theatre

3.05 – More of That

 

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Big Race Stats/Trends/Shortlist

The handicaps at this meeting are usually big fields but that doesn’t appear to be the case this year, which is a shame.

I had a look at the 3m Handicap Hurdle on Day 1, 3.40, although there isn’t much to go on…

3.40 Chelt

10/10 ran over three distances LTO: 19-19.5f / 21-21.5f / 25.5f

10/10 had 1-3 runs this season

Track LTO: Chelt (x8) Newbury + Ascot (x1 each)

0 runs runs previous 90 days: 0/13,1p

6/10 had 1-2 runs in handicaps (6/23 runners, 10p, +23)

Trainers (20 year records) Hobbs (x3) Jonjo (x2)

Shortlist: 

Well i’m not sure these help that much and may indicate it isn’t a trends race to go mad on/may be best ignoring….

if you focused on those with 1-3 runs this season: The Dutchman / Champers On Ice / Rockys Treasure / Shantou Bob / Sykes

Of those, Champers On Ice (has 1-2 handicap runs) Rockys Treasure (ran at one of the 3 tracks above LTO) worth noting.

None of those 5 hit the rather random ‘distance LTO stat’

If just focusing on the distance LTO stats: Arthurs Gift / Fly Camp (1-2 handicap runs)  / Jester Jet

Hmmm. Do with that as you please 🙂

You could go with the ‘back the biggest’ for fun theory, which would point you towards Shantou Bob and Sykes from the various pointers above. I may throw some change at BFSP to find out. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • The booking of Richard Johnson on Viking Mistress 1.55 is interesting at 16/1.With the Hobbs stable continuing to struggle for winners Johnson has to scratch around in his relentless quest for them,he is 2/4 with Keighley chasers this season,which were on this horse,didn’t run up to expectations lto but Richard has kept the faith,looks a bit of value to my eyes

    gearoid180468 14/12/17 9:26 PM Reply


  • I have had a scan through the Cheltenham card for Friday and have the following thoughts:

    12.10 Looks competitive and I will leave it to others;
    12.45 I cannot back Sizing Tennessee until it manages not to fall or unseat. Therefore I will lay it as the other three are not push overs anyway.
    1.20 I will take Champagne City and Ravens Tower against the field. Both look solid.
    1.55 Another competitive race. I think Sparkling River may be able to progress a bit more and would go with each way.
    2.30 I like Misteree here based upon its form last season.
    3.05 I like Cantlow and should be in the first three here and so the 6/1 BOG available now makes sense.
    3.40 The Dutchman chased home Sam Spinner LTO and now goes over further. 5/1 BOG at present.

    My Thursday all weather tip was unplaced and so I will retire from tipping on this surface and leave it to Ken and others.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 14/12/17 9:33 PM Reply


  • The Dutchman Cheltenham Friday 15:40 2pt win-I think The Dutchman is a worthy favourite here. His 2nd LTO represents the best form in the race. He was a long way behind the runaway winner but beat everything in what was a grade 3. That was his first run of the season and also first run for Tizzard. He is only 2lbs higher and should come on for the run and this looks easier. Will be racing prominently and both jockey and trainer are in good form.
    Remiluc Cheltenham Friday 13:20 1pt e/w-Another who arguably brings the best form into the race having split Old Guard (3rd in the Greatwood) and Air Horse One (4th in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle where the 1st,2nd,3rd and 5th have all won class 2 or better races) which brought some of the best form lines all round to the table. He is only 2lbs up for that run and the soft ground will suit better than LTO. Drops down in class here and I thought he should have been favourite. Only concern is trainer hasn’t had a winner recently but enough of his fancied runners have ran OK.
    Pearl Spectre Chelmsford City Friday 19:45 1pt e/w-Pearl Spectre looks a solid bet here. Has been running consistently well in class 3 races and drops back into a class 4 here. Should either be able to either lead or race prominently. Has a much better draw than his last few starts. Won 4 starts ago off just 2 lbs higher. He is 3/8 in class 4 handicaps at the track. He is 2/8 when returning within 7 days. Trainers last 4 runners have all placed and the jockey was riding 3 of those.

    Nick Mazur 14/12/17 9:44 PM Reply


    • After spending an eternity on the race last night and leaving it given to me the 13:35 at Doncaster looks the hardest race of the day I have thrown £5 e/w on Fixed Rate. Only up 5lbs for his win over course and distance and should be thereabouts. Front 4 in the market all look like dangers. (Its definitely a game of opinions but I think you’re mad to tip anything at 4s in that race Josh!)

      Nick Mazur 15/12/17 10:07 AM Reply


      • Mad I may be, we shall soon find out. It looked between 5 of them so on that basis you’d want at least 4s> 20% chance at odds. I suspect Fixed rate wins or struggles- I was banking on the second time blinkers not working as well as LTO. Both wins now in first time headgear, but can see why you have played at 8s- if they work again he did look interesting. Blinkers being used on Value At Risk – not a positive really at the price given profile- if they work then we are all in trouble I suspect- but a chance neither sets of headgear works for those two, which leaves 3! Carlos is inexperienced in context of price, step up in class, this is harder. But clearly could be anything, Clondaw has the ability, solid yardstick, open to attack from anything with more in hand- which could be any of the other 4. Kennedy here for a reason no doubt, kilronan, this one, or both!
        I couldn’t leave him, so we shall see. I am comfortable with them both at that price – but they may be a final nail in my ‘under 6/1’ coffin! GL

        Josh 15/12/17 10:20 AM Reply


  • AW qualifiers for Chelmsford, with prices taken.
    6.15 Gembari 11/2
    7.15 Paddy the Chef 9/2
    8.15 Retrieve 14/1 & Ruler of the Nile 12/1
    8.45 Ross Raith Rover 10/1 & Samphire Coast 6/1
    1pt win each horse
    Minimum 4/1 recommended.

    Try to go for BOG if possible. 2 of my winners were drifters.

    It really pains me to select Ross Raith Rover as I’m a Par. See if you can work that one out 🙂 – Not you Mickeydee!

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 15/12/17 12:04 AM Reply


    • Nice 10/1 winner yesterday Ken, keep it up. Without googling it the ‘Pars’ are Dunfermline and their rivals are Raith Rovers. I used to work in Scotland as a young man as an auditor, learning my trade. I used to go to games when you could just turn up and saw Dunfermline play. My team Millwall never played friendlies in Scotland. I wonder why?

      Could be worse, someone supports Liverpool.

      martin colwell 15/12/17 8:55 AM Reply


      • Well done. Give that man a coconut!

        Ken McKenzie 15/12/17 9:04 AM Reply


      • Oi, enough of that!! 🙂

        Josh 15/12/17 9:21 AM Reply


    • LOL…. Dunfermline Ken…I was with the old HLI for a while and used to go to quite a few footy games….. with a good mate Dougal Mackechnie…. used to poison everyone with his cooking, he was in the ACC….Andy Clydes Commando’s… They killed more of our troops than the enemy…lol.
      Happy days Ken.
      Keep on tipping.

      BOL…. Tony Mc.

      tonymc 15/12/17 10:31 AM Reply


    • Two others to keep an eye on before the off are Progressive Jazz 6.15 and Escape the City 7.15. If they drift to 4/1 they will be qualifiers.
      GL

      Ken McKenzie 15/12/17 4:44 PM Reply


    • Well played Ken

      joners 15/12/17 7:10 PM Reply


      • Cheers Joners. Sorry I couldn’t find you a 10/1 winner tonight but hope you were on Gembari 11/2 and Samphire Coast 6/1 . I’m feeling a certain amount of pressure to keep this going – gulp!!

        Ken McKenzie 15/12/17 9:25 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    I cant see that anybody else has noted it but Wotzizname runs in the 2.30 Chelt not the 13.55 as listed

    Geoffrey Haines 15/12/17 10:41 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, thanks- have missed out the time with that one! Hopefully anyone wanting to back him found him ok, price hasn’t moved at least. GL
      Josh

      Josh 15/12/17 10:43 AM Reply


  • very late posting but 12-10 C It’s Got Legs @ 100/1 expected by connections to outrun it’s odds £1 ew on to find out.

    martin whittle 15/12/17 11:50 AM Reply


    • Awful tipping Martin, not putting up 100/1 winners in consecutive days!! 🙂 Poor haha.

      Josh 15/12/17 1:06 PM Reply


  • I am not that surprised with the run of Okotoks,ex Tony Martin horses will need some time to adjust.I was talking to an experienced horse trader 10 years ago who visited his stable.His comments were that Martins stable was very regimented and the horses didn’t look that happy.He was very successfull at that time but judging by his recent record is that way of running things is not working now,may take horses from his longer to adjust to a happier environment,if they do at all

    gearoid180468 15/12/17 3:42 PM Reply


    • I am amazed at the price he was put up at (same with the last runner a week or two ago who was making the switch from Martin to Fergal). We know Fergal is a good trainer but Tony is no mug.

      Nick Mazur 15/12/17 4:02 PM Reply


  • 5 winners from 137 runs this season would suggest something amiss there,Denmark seems to have cleared a few from the yard.Most trainers over here are struggling against the Elliot/Mullins yards,suppose Martin is no different

    gearoid180468 15/12/17 4:56 PM Reply


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