Members Daily Post: 13/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

None. All jumps meetings abandoned.

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/158, +116.4) (1 point win bets)

None.

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I have no intention of tipping on the all-weather and I don’t think he will be much of a price..but Genetics…  i’m sure you can guess what comes next… it’s the 6th run of his life and third handicap start. So he qualifies on some stats on this page, and is unexposed- one day there should be more to come. So, we have the foundation. Now i’m asking myself why should he improve, what is he doing different? I don’t want him repeating what he has done recently as there isn’t anything that I could see for why he would win his first handicap. Today he drops down two classes (and that should feel like quite a drop in class, a Newbury C2 to a Lingfield C4), drops down 2f in distance (he won a maiden over 8f), runs for the first time on the AW (and it was soft LTO, win was on GF) and he gets a hood for the first time. Maybe it does feel like they are trying everything in one go!! It is also his third start after over a year off. He has also dropped 3lb, which may help. It is hard to know if Balding is in form, or badly out of form, 0/8,0p the last 14 days. I may be more concerned about the jockey who is only 2/67 at the track in the last year. That would be the number one reason why I would probably want double 4/1, if not a tad more! Clearly he will now hack up like a 1/2 shot 🙂 Oh he also doesn’t have any ratings pointers which can be useful, esp when deliberating on whether a horse may be a big enough price or not. That’s what I thought when briefly looking at him and it has taken me longer to write that then it did to think about those factors. To boost confidence, or knock it further, you could then look at how the form of some of his races has worked out- his maiden has produced plenty of winners, back in August 2016. So, he ticks plenty of boxes- that type of profile has won plenty of times on these pages, and will continue to do so -it’s then a subjective interpretation of price, in line with any pros/cons, possibly a brief assessment of the oppo using the market as a guide. James Tate had a winner for those AW stats at Newcastle (there has been one, promise!) who was unexposed and doing a few things different – he won at 10/1- I only clocked him after he won, but he ticked plenty of boxes.  Anyway, i’ll watch with interest how he goes.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Please Note that this is very much a test and I strongly advise against backing any of the horses systematically, even if they qualify against the ‘advised strategies’ – these strategies are simply a copy of their Flat cousin, as per the link the key. I have no idea if they will repeat or if the stats will be any good. They are fine on paper but proof is always in the eating. And the All-Weather is a strange beast. I would use the horses as starting points for further research, maybe as a test to apply the ‘unexposed/doing something different theory’. Or what could well be ‘the magic formula’.  Remember the link to the guide can be found in the Key, in the ‘research articles’ repository. 

 

Lingfield

12.00- Genetics (m1) ES 4/1 S3 UP 15/2

 

Wolvs

3.15 – Jack Blane (m1) ES H3 I1 2/1 S2 S3 WON 9/4 

5.25 – New Abbey Angel (m1 + m1) ES H3 I3 G3 9/2 S3 S4 S5 2nd 8/1 

 

Kempton

7.10 –

Cliff Face (all hncps + 3yo+) 14,30 ES 7/1 S3 

Glenys The Menace (m2) ES H3 I3  8/1 S3 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The Week That Was

A few ‘notebook’ horses as usual and a some trainer angles of interest for Fergal O’Brien, Rose Dobbin and Alex Dunn >>> #6 READ HERE>>>

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VIDEO REPOSITORY

Just to note that all of my videos are ‘produced/published’ through my YouTube Channel. Sadly I don’t have millions of followers or make anything from advertising!! 🙂 Members’ Only videos are ‘unlisted’ and only available through the posts, those have mainly been the ‘through the card’ videos.

However everything else that I have ever recorded can be found via YouTube HERE>>>>  (there are 69 to choose from…although a few out of date by now.. the ‘Let’s Get Better As Punters’ one, which explores the ‘unexposed/doing something different’ idea has been the most popular to date, with 922 or so views)

I mean given the lack of jumps racing I can’t think of many better ways to spend your time!! 🙂 (that is a joke, I can think of many better ways)

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Wednesday’s Plans…

I do want to write a ‘guide’, for myself if nothing else, on my ‘unexposed/are they doing something different’ theory, a kind of step by step approach with example questions that we should be asking ourselves. With any luck you may find it of use but i’ll be interested to hear what you think. I haven’t put pen to paper yet. I’ll also try and record another video focused on going through said guide and looking at a few examples from weeks gone by.

I’ll also have a look to see if there are any ‘big meeting’ notes for Cheltenham this weekend- I suspect the data may not be rich enough but it will be interesting to see if any trainers really stand out.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Well after a reasonable start to my tipping, I’ll give it another go tomorrow.
    Lingfield
    1.00 Take Two & Volpone Jelois
    2.00 Right Touch & Make Music
    2.30 Unit of Assessment
    3.30 Topmeup
    1 point win each horse. Some decent prices still available.
    In case you wondered, I’m not just plucking them out of thin air, I do have a system 🙂

    Ken McKenzie 12/12/17 11:15 PM Reply


    • Good shout Ken…….good early price.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 13/12/17 1:06 PM Reply


      • Cheers Tony. I got 11s. Were you on it?

        Ken McKenzie 13/12/17 1:15 PM Reply


        • Yes Ken….could only get 9s…but cheers.

          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 13/12/17 4:20 PM Reply


    • Well that turned out to be a very frustrating afternoon. Yes I picked one winner at 11’s but in every other race my picks were placed. Oh so close to a very good day but a 5pt profit to add to yesterday’s is a nice start.

      Ken McKenzie 13/12/17 3:50 PM Reply


      • Consistency is never a negative Ken, just bloody frustrating! But always more positives than negatives with such efforts. That’s still a solid return over two days, you can’t complain about that. Onto tomorrow.

        Josh 13/12/17 4:06 PM Reply


      • You were unlucky today Ken. But we are judged long term and not on one day so stick at it. You need a bit of luck on the sand as well.

        Josh, a winner for the S2 strategy. Let us hope the losing streak is over now.

        martin colwell 13/12/17 4:21 PM Reply


        • Not to confuse things, but that’s the Flat S2 strategy, not the jumps one! Which is on a horror of a run, with any luck it will turn soon. It may not. Always got S4! 🙂

          Josh 13/12/17 4:24 PM Reply


  • Oops just noticed another qualifier.
    2.30 Betsalottie

    Ken McKenzie 12/12/17 11:21 PM Reply


  • Well all-weather is bar far the weakest of the 3 types of racing as far as my area of expertise is but have thrown £5e/w on Rouge Nuage Wolverhampton Wednesday 16:55 and Glenys The Menace Kempton Wednesday 19:10 who both look to have a reasonable enough chances although both one or two things stopping me from tipping them.

    Nick Mazur 12/12/17 11:40 PM Reply


    • All weather racing was designed for times like these when the weather stops us having national hunt racing. Money often tells and gambles tend to find horses that either win or go close. Mostly to me it is all about the jockey judging the pace of the race and not getting boxed at the back and flying too late. Adam Kirby spelt it out on ATR yesterday ‘Nowadays they want to jog around and then sprint the last two furlongs’. By all means have a bet but not an angle for serious betting.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 13/12/17 10:33 AM Reply


      • Oh I don’t know about that. Just a case I am not good enough to solve the AW just yet but doesn’t mean it can’t be solved. Just another challenge.

        Nick Mazur 13/12/17 12:54 PM Reply


        • Like all things I think you firstly have to focus on what you enjoy, and I for one get no enjoyment from looking at a C5/6 AW race! Many a fine judge will specialise in AW racing and you can see why – it is a specialist area, for horses, trainers, jockeys, with the tracks generally being a constant in terms of going, and rarely any rail movements etc. The time boys have more to play with also I think, given more constants.
          But, it’s not for me. I suspect it is rather hard to become an expert across all three codes, unless you really specialise in certain race types across all three… I have a burnout fear as well- i’ve quite enjoyed the last two days as I have been able to totally switch off from race analysis! if I dived into AW as much as I do the jumps, and think about it in the same depth, i’d be mentally ill within 6 months I suspect, or certainly burnt out. You have to give yourself a break and I can quite happily leave it alone.
          Well, they are my thoughts anyway!
          You can make good money on the AW, and many a puzzle to solve no doubt, but you have to put the time in, as with anyway. And, time is precious.
          Josh

          Josh 13/12/17 1:01 PM Reply


          • Needless to say after another winner at 11s I disagree. I have been putting together a system, back testing it on historic data and it seems to produce good results. Time will tell if it continues to perform. I will continue to put up some qualifiers to hopefully pay back some of the returns I have made from Josh and other posters.

            Good luck

            Ken McKenzie 13/12/17 1:14 PM Reply


            • Good stuff Ken, appears you have researched a decent method based on evidence to date! If you keep firing in 10/1 winners you’ll have to share it at some point 🙂 We could do with some AW selections in comments, so much appreciated. You clearly enjoy the code and have enjoyed digging, long may it continue. GL for rest of the afternoon.

              Josh 13/12/17 1:18 PM Reply


              • Cheers Josh. I’ve learned a lot from you about using stats to find a method that finds winners over a long term period. It can sometimes throw up a lot of qualifiers but I’ve managed to narrow them down a bit, to keep it manageable from a betting bank point of view. Fingers crossed.

                Ken McKenzie 13/12/17 1:24 PM Reply


            • Good luck Ken and Nick if you have a go. I am not saying it cannot be solved but there are easier types of race and sports to crack over the long term based upon my experience and so I will not spend much time on it as I am interested in making money from what I can. I cannot afford the luxury of doing so but hope one of you guys can long term. I look forward to that. I do have the occasional bet on the AW though if I am aware of something.

              Good luck.

              martin colwell 13/12/17 1:23 PM Reply


              • Josh/Martin I can see where you are both coming from but I don’t see why the principles I use for jumps and flat can’t apply to AW. I do probably have 3/4 years experience looking at the jumps compared to 2/3 years on the flat and 1 year at best (although I generally neglect it when there are a lot of meetings elsewhere) for the AW so I would like to think the gap in my knowledge between the 3 will narrow down the line. I have certainly picked out some nice AW winners just the consistency/confidence isn’t quite there yet. The front runner favoring tracks is probably the place to focus on.

                Nick Mazur 13/12/17 1:38 PM Reply


                • I didn’t say they couldn’t did I? 🙂 (but from that starting point it is then a different code for me, and it’s where you go from that point) but you a) you have to want to want to apply them/and get stuck in b) have the time/capacity to do so… and in that regard the majority of that comment was aimed at myself!!
                  Consistency/confidence can only come with time/experience.
                  Jack of all trades, master of none, is my biggest fear in this game.
                  It could well just be me, i’ve never done that well on the surface so don’t bother.
                  Josh

                  Josh 13/12/17 1:50 PM Reply


                  • I think its something we differ on mate as previously discussed but many ways to skin a cat. Good to get a discussion going on a drab day like this even if my main tipster (he certainly manages all three disciplines even if he had a poor flat season this year) and SP2A bag another double priced winner.

                    Nick Mazur 13/12/17 2:04 PM Reply


        • I love your positivity Nick
          Ain’t no mountain big enough lol

          Aaron Lumsden 13/12/17 1:31 PM Reply


  • In all honesty I think the most successful way to profit on the all weather is to wait till 5 minutes before the off switch on and then follow what you think is the strongest of the 2-4 market movers so needless to say small stakes advised but surprising in lower grade handicaps if you can label it as a system (personallly I wouldn’t ) it can be profitable if your lucky enough to pick the right one money is comining for (sounds lottoesque ) But it’s bottom of the ladder racing anything can happen
    Good luck if anyone is bothering dipping in

    Aaron Lumsden 13/12/17 12:37 PM Reply


  • Lot of rain forecast for Taunton and clerk worries it might be heavy tomorrow.

    chrisrees 13/12/17 12:49 PM Reply


  • Nick…
    i’m not sure we are differing on much!! 🙂 Everything i have said there makes logical sense in my own head. But then again, I could need another coffee.

    Plenty of fun/profit to be had on the AW, applying similar principles from other two codes – but it takes time? And it is a different code that needs knowing? Now if you have the drive/time to do so, then you will do well in time. And if you apply yourself in the same way to all three codes then you will do well?
    I’m not sure what we are differing on – i’m just saying I don’t have the drive, and linked to that the time, to want to get to grips with the AW. Jumps then Flat will always come first and there is enough of both for me to try and master. Clearly I’m not saying it can’t be mastered. But I won’t be, in part because I don’t feel like i’ve mastered the other two as yet! (not that they can ever be fully mastered) And for whatever reason I never seem to have the motivation to do so. So I will follow those who are much better judges than I on that score, inc SP2A/All-Weather man! (he is a specialist !!) 🙂 Given it’s nature a case could be made that AW is the best code to try and master.
    We clearly differ on our motivation/liking for the code, if that’s what you meant.
    Josh

    Josh 13/12/17 2:14 PM Reply


    • I meant with regards to whether or not you should specialize LOL.

      Nick Mazur 13/12/17 2:21 PM Reply


      • Ha, oh well, then we disagree! Maybe I didn’t make myself clear… I don’t mean just in one code… (ie just focus on jumps/Flat/or AW) but I don’t have the capacity to try and become a master of every race type etc just in Jumps racing say…. I doff my cap to anyone who looks across all racing, race types, and attacks the lot. I couldn’t do that.

        You could be say a ‘sprint’ specialist (inc 2m over jumps), or only ever look at Class x/y/z –

        you rarely look outside of all-age handicaps? So already you specialise to a point. Your point about looking at front runners/front running tracks, is specialising, or having a ‘way in’ that you look for.

        Anyway, i know what I mean in my own head even if I haven’t explained it very well!

        I am adamant you need to focus on something/a way in/a strategy/starting point/race type, even if that is applied across all three codes.
        Josh

        Josh 13/12/17 2:29 PM Reply


        • Yeah that’s what I was trying to say 🙂 (about the disagreeing part)

          Oh I agree on having a way in but I just meant I don’t avoid a race because its a certain type (barring sellers and claimers) even if it is less likely I am going to tip in a novice non-handicap hurdle than I am in a handicap chase. If I like a horses chances I will have a go. I will have to go through my tipping thought process with you over a glass of bubbles and some good food sometime.

          Nick Mazur 13/12/17 2:39 PM Reply


          • Well in that case, we’ll go full circle and agree there are many ways to skin a cat in this game!
            Yep we should at some point. Maybe I should hold a ‘RTP’ party sometime! 🙂

            Josh 13/12/17 2:45 PM Reply


            • Profit making is the ultimate quest though and so the All Weather looks the hardest of the racing disciplines to crack. I too find it boring to watch and so do not have the enthusiasm to try t.o have a go at it. I would rate anyone who can show a good profit on the all weather as a true great and I would bow to their greatness. I. t would be a greatd day when I found such a person. Ian and his pals at SP2A do have a go on the all weather at times. From my calcs they have not achieved the oracle yet but do find winners. Ian can put me right if I am wrong?

              Maybe Ken is ‘the man who would be king’?

              martin colwell 13/12/17 3:08 PM Reply


              • Ian doesn’t have access to this members’ area so he won’t be replying haha. They do have a new AW specialist on board who he has proofed to death no doubt (one of the reasons they are so good I think- that use of a stable of tipsters etc) and his early results are decent enough, boosted by a 10/1 winner today already.
                Each to their own, i side with you on the motivation/enjoyment front- no idea why that is but I do struggle!
                Ken appears to have found a system of interest,and it will be fun watching how that develops. Been a decent start, and if nothing else the list of qualifiers may prove to be useful ‘starting points’.
                Josh

                Josh 13/12/17 3:14 PM Reply


  • Re the comments about AW racing. I think its more about the trainers/jockeys who take it seriously Simon Dow springs to mind which I think is one of Joshs trial systems, and selective backing on these. Lagenda in the 4.55 plus SOD are my only bets today

    Tony Tolhurst 13/12/17 3:45 PM Reply


  • Ian’s AW man had Shyron today at 9/1……

    tonymc 13/12/17 4:26 PM Reply


  • See what did I say easy stuff this AW game! Wish I was more confident LOL.

    Nick Mazur 13/12/17 5:01 PM Reply


    • Well, you’ve made it look easy there haha. Well done.
      You have to tell us why now?…

      Josh 13/12/17 5:11 PM Reply


      • Sure he was 5/10, 7p over course and distance. He won his previous 3 handicap starts over course class and distance off marks of 78, 80 and 74 including back in August and was running off 74 today. Trainer had 2 winners and a 3rd from his last 4 starts (I didn’t spot it last night but looking at GGG now he is the only in-form trainer in the race). Considering he was 2nd off 75 at Chelmsford in September the recent form was a concern as was the draw but probably should have been more bullish. I didn’t find the Tom Eaves booking a negative but did think of it as odd considering Jimmy Quinn was riding today.

        Nick Mazur 13/12/17 5:41 PM Reply


        • top work… CD form as way in, a look at most recent CD form inc class, handicap mark fine, trainer in form, nice price, job done. Price allowed you to overlook concerns over recent form, jockey booking- easy game!! 🙂

          Josh 13/12/17 5:46 PM Reply


  • Nice winner Nick (Rouge Nuage) BOG 18/1

    BTW….did you consider DSLRun as a pointer to finding this winner or was it a general Form consideration?

    can you share how you found it?

    Norman 13/12/17 5:14 PM Reply


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