Members Daily Post: 12/12/17 (complete)

Weekly article, link to youtube channel, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ayr Cancelled.

1.10 –

Titian Boy (m2) I3 G3

McGinty’s Dream (m2)

1.45 – Massini’s Lady (m2)

2.20 – Craiganboy (m1+m2) ES+ I3 G3

2.55 – Presenting Rose (nov hncps)

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/158, +116.4) (1 point win bets)

tbc/to follow

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Re-cap.. no complaints from Project Mars, he’s run his race and just bumped into one, beating SP a mild comfort. Jebs Gamble is a winner in waiting I think, having bumped into one. That ground is clearly no problem. I got  Get On The Yager wrong – all said in hindsight of course… that was his third handicap chase start and he was taking a big step back up in trip – so, doing something different. His mark had come down a tad, this was probably weaker than the last race, and he did have some decent hurdles form to his name. I looked at him as I do all horses in section 1. I was concerned that he had been well fancied the last twice without doing much. He ran over 22f at Uttoxeter and I thought he didn’t stay. Maybe he needed the run. They then dropped him down to 19f and he didn’t do much the last day. They stepped him up to 26f here, on heavy, and that has done the trick. Maybe he learnt plenty from his first two chase runs. Distance and ground were a concern (in context of price,subjective), but unknowns. Both reasons for why he may improve. At that point you then judge price and i clearly didn’t persuade myself that 9/2 was big enough. Given how he ran and in the context of the smaller field, it clearly was. Easy to say after of course. That’s how it goes, i’ve avoided a few like that also. Hopefully some of you may have looked at him and made a better value decision than i did on this occasion. Another for that approach at least. (stats qual/unexposed/doing something different) Le Coeur Net summed up our luck at the moment, esp for any systematic S3A backers – cruising/tanking when coming to grief. I suspect he’d have won comfortably but we’ll never know. 

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A note on Titian Boy… if my memory is correct from when I last read Nick Alexander’s blog, post his last run, he said that next time they would revert to front running tactics. The horse doesn’t like being crowded and they got it wrong the last day. He no doubt needed it anyway. We shall see if they decide to try and make all with him. Yet to look through any runners in depth and they have an inspection in the morning.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP -All-Weather

Lingfield

3.15 – Mossgo (m2) 14/1 UP

Wolverhampton

4.20- Jack Blane (m1) ES I1 5/2 S3

6.50- Ballymore Castle (m2) 5/1

7.20 – New Abbey Angel (m1+m1) ES I3 G3 11/2 S3

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 2/49,10p, -39  
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 2/32,8p, -22
  • S1 (0/5,1p, -5) S2 (0/14,3p, -14) S3 (0/7,1p, -7) S3A (1/8,2p, -2.5) S4 (1/5,2p, -0.5) S5 (0/10,1p, -10)

NOTES – 1/6, +0.4

Thoughts: I’ll update the link in the Key asap… another poor week on the systematic front with a few more close calls added into the mix. They really are going through a rut at the moment. Again, on a strategy by strategy basis, esp S1, S2, S5, I am not as yet alarmed. S2 is now on it’s worst run since I introduced the TTP stats last September time. Again it was another week where there were plenty of bigger priced ones that didn’t look to have much chance on paper to my eyes and ran as such, but at some point they ‘should’ go on a run again. I hope that’s soon. The ‘notes’ I suppose are some guide to my subjective views on qualifiers and at the prices only 6 of those looked worthy of any ‘tipping’ interest last week. Guards Chapel went close at 25s/55.00 BFSP, and he was one of the few monsters who on paper didn’t look fully up against it. I’d be lying if I said S3 isn’t causing me some concern after what was a superb start. In theory there should be a bucket load of winners soon across the board. Annoying that, bar S4, the losing runs for all other strategies have come at the same time. Still, we’ll get through the storm and longer term it’s still looking good, although I appreciate it won’t feel like that for anyone who stopped by these parts from October time. There’s not much more to say on that front, it is what it is. I won’t try and pretend it’s all rosy at the moment when it clearly isn’t. Again, that is the reason for starting small (£2.50s), with any approach/service, having an adequate bank you are prepared to lose (150-200+ points) and doing your best to weather any horror run.

With any luck a bumper festive period is in store. I think that’s all I want for Christmas. To reiterate last week’s thoughts- for a focused approach/starting point/something to build on, systems wise, i’d start with/focus on S1 + S4, for now. I suppose that until you experience a decent run with some of the strategies you may not have much confidence in them. Yes you can see how they have performed to date and the profit etc in 2017. But I appreciate that you may not believe it until you experience it, in terms of a winning run/X strategies going into profit. In the meanwhile I’ll try and make it as bearable as possible with section 2/Notes and various other content. And I mean, we always have Nick and others to tip us some winners, no pressure! 🙂

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The Week That Was

A few ‘notebook’ horses as usual and a some trainer angles of interest for Fergal O’Brien, Rose Dobbin and Alex Dunn >>> #6 READ HERE>>>

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VIDEO REPOSITORY

Just to note that all of my videos are ‘produced/published’ through my YouTube Channel. Sadly I don’t have millions of followers or make anything from advertising!! 🙂 Members’ Only videos are ‘unlisted’ and only available through the posts, those have mainly been the ‘through the card’ videos.

However everything else that I have ever recorded can be found via YouTube HERE>>>>  (there are 69 to choose from…although a few out of date by now.. the ‘Let’s Get Better As Punters’ one, which explores the ‘unexposed/doing something different’ idea has been the most popular to date, with 922 or so views)

I mean given the lack of jumps racing I can’t think of many better ways to spend your time!! 🙂 (that is a joke, I can think of many better ways)

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That’s the lot for today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. been reading quite a few posts recently and thought i would add my two penneth about profit/loss, there is no denying the last 4 weeks have been tough these are my figures – last 30 days -157.35, last 3 months +173.54, since 01-01-17 +605.10.
    personally i think the only way to judge a system is long term and i for one am very happy with my results to date and expect to be hanging about for a very long time to come.
    i only have one hard and fast rule and that is my maximum stake will never exceed 2% of my bank this builds in survival for any losing runs.
    but it is not just the system qualifiers that keep me here at Racing To Profit it is the overall ambience (if that’s the right word) excellent posts from Josh and fellow members and i don’t think i have enjoyed a racing site as much since the early days of win2win which sadly went to pot so keep up the good work Josh,Martin,Mike,Nick ,David etc and long may it continue.

    1. Cheers Martin, much appreciated. Yep, we’ll go with ambience! I have tried to create a place that is more than a running P/L where it is ‘just’ about results- clearly that is what any service should be judged on but i’d like to think there is plenty which adds to your experience of racing, and it’s a place where everyone can chip in with their views etc.
      Josh

        1. I might steal that idea 🙂 (don’t trademark it) Very true, building from a solid base though! don’t make it sound like we have no idea what we’re doing haha. Part Academy /service/magazine subscription/forum etc an all in one, to use as you please.

  2. Long term profit is the key and flexibility in approach. Keep in mind value in your approach, especially in horse racing. The percentage of bankroll you risk depends on its size but 2% makes sense. For larger bankrolls I would only go 1% max on a horse.

    Cheltenham to look forward to and the weather picking up.

  3. With Wolves now abandoned, only AW action at Lingfield. Here is my first go at tipping, if anyone is interested. 1 pt win each.
    12.00 Everkyllachy
    12.30 Compton Prince
    1.35 Storm King
    2.10 Zac Brown & Royal Birth
    3.15 Dreams of Glory.

    1. A good start Ken! My main tipster also put up Compton Prince and Dreams of Glory, so I’ve got my fingers crossed for that one later on too.

        1. Ah Ken, plucking out 10/1 winners for fun on the AW takes a bit more than beginners luck!! Well done, and GL with the rest to come, but decent profit assured if level staking.

          1. Cheers Josh. TBH it was 9/2 when I took it. Nice little drift to 10s before the off is always welcome.

  4. Blimey that’s some way to break out of a five month slump for the John Bradley yard. They got their Xmas money sorted.

    1. Assume you mean Barney Curley haha. What a day for them. Some fine plotting and planning there, yet to look at front two, but I know someone on twitter who made a strong case for the old boy winning at 20s, so some with AW eyes could make a case for him. They may well have had some issues that are now resolved. Happy days if they’ve put them in multiples, hopefully some at the yard lumped on!

    1. Hi Christopher… it is in the test zone for a reason 🙂 It is the first time I have ever done such a guide for all-weather, using the same template as the flat guide. As with them all, it is never wise to back the lot – just backing all flat selections would have been a painful experience. They are a starting point with the hope that the advised strategies home in on enough of the good ones. But I have no idea if they will – all-weather is a completely different beast, even for the three ratings sets – and of course it is generally all at a much lower class, which may or may not have a bearing.
      As I type I have no stats on how they have performed to date. They are all on the blog posts since I started posting so just need to go through them. I suspect they make for torrid reading at the moment, although I don’t think there have been many ratings based advised strategy qualifiers. (using the Flat advised strategies as a guide)
      It could be they are rubbish and they are meant to be a ‘bonus’ as nearly all my attention at this time of year is on the jumps content, which is the bread and butter. I’ll have a look next week and see if I can pull together some figures since introduced a few weeks back.
      A link to the guide is in the research link in The Key. The historical stats are sound enough but as always you can never tell if history will repeat.
      Josh

    2. I have only recorded ES, ES+, double top rated and triple rated qualifiers which were 3/1+ when posted/when I tried placing them and at the moment they are 0/19 but that’s a very small sample size. (ES 0/7, ES+ 0/9, Double Top rated 0/2, No tripled rated qualifiers at 3/1+)

      I think there was a triple rated winner which was 2/1-5/2 last week. No idea on the rest. Obviously very early days to know anything conclusively.

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