Members Daily Post: 11/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Fontwell

2.15 – Get On The Yager (hncp chase) 14,30 H3 I3 9/2  WON 9/2> 10/3 

2.45 – Jebs Gamble (m1) ES H3 I3 G1 9/1  S3 S4  2nd 9/1>13/2 

3.15 – Le Coeur Net (all hncps + hncp chase) 14,30 ES+H3 G1 3/1  S3A  Fell 3/1>5/4 (30p R4)

3.40 – Project Mars (m1) ES I1 G3 8/1  S3    2nd 5/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/157, +117.4) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.40 Font- Project Mars –  13/2 / 7/1  2nd 5/1

Decent enough run, I can’t really complain with that effort, just bumped into one. Nearly, but not quite.

 

It’s time to put on that broken record again and press play… he’s a stats qualifier / unexposed in race type (3rd handicap hurdle start) / he’s ‘doing something different’ – the main one here being a drop in trip by 3f or so. I thought he looked the most interesting of the two Gifford runners to my eyes but we shall see how that plays out. He was sent off at 20s the last day which suggests to me that he may have needed the run still. This is his third start of the season and I would like to think he will be spot on now. Trainer and Jockey are 4/12,6p, +12 when teaming up in handicaps at the track and Gifford is 1/7,2p in the last 14 days. This is also a shocker of a race, with only two previous winners in it. It won’t take much winning I don’t think and he has as good a chance as any to my eye. The one unknown is the ground. I simply have little idea if he will handle it which is why I want bigger than 6s really. He ran well at Towcester in a bumper on soft, which could be deceptive but that’s all I have to go one. He could well relish it, he could flounder. There is little pace in this and he should be in the perfect spot near the front. Given his profile and the oppo I thought he was worth a dart.

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I will mention Upham Running at 40/1 UP 14/1  in the same race… I have had a little nibble…any Geegeez ‘instant expert’ users will see why. He is the only one in here that has won in the ground, class and distance. And that win was also at Fontwell. It was also after a lengthy break. He could make all if they revert to usual tactics. I would not fall off my seat if he won this shocker of a contest. He may need the run but I think they can ready him if needed, and he has been in poor form when last seen – and since in point to points apparently. But he is lightly raced for his age. He may be devoid of any ability now. But if he returned to the winning form he showed here in 2014 he’d go close. I couldn’t resist some change at that price. You never know.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather 

Southwell

2.30 – Toy Theatre (m1) ES H3 I3 8/1 S3 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 2/49,10p, -39  
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 2/32,8p, -22
  • S1 (0/5,1p, -5) S2 (0/14,3p, -14) S3 (0/7,1p, -7) S3A (1/8,2p, -2.5) S4 (1/5,2p, -0.5) S5 (0/10,1p, -10)

 

NOTES – 1/6, +0.4

 

Thoughts: I’ll update the link in the Key asap… another poor week on the systematic front with a few more close calls added into the mix. They really are going through a rut at the moment. Again, on a strategy by strategy basis, esp S1, S2, S5, I am not as yet alarmed. S2 is now on it’s worst run since I introduced the TTP stats last September time. Again it was another week where there were plenty of bigger priced ones that didn’t look to have much chance on paper to my eyes and ran as such, but at some point they ‘should’ go on a run again. I hope that’s soon. The ‘notes’ I suppose are some guide to my subjective views on qualifiers and at the prices only 6 of those looked worthy of any ‘tipping’ interest last week. Guards Chapel went close at 25s/55.00 BFSP, and he was one of the few monsters who on paper didn’t look fully up against it. I’d be lying if I said S3 isn’t causing me some concern after what was a superb start. In theory there should be a bucket load of winners soon across the board. Annoying that, bar S4, the losing runs for all other strategies have come at the same time. Still, we’ll get through the storm and longer term it’s still looking good, although I appreciate it won’t feel like that for anyone who stopped by these parts from October time. There’s not much more to say on that front, it is what it is. I won’t try and pretend it’s all rosy at the moment when it clearly isn’t. Again, that is the reason for starting small (£2.50s), with any approach/service, having an adequate bank you are prepared to lose (150-200+ points) and doing your best to weather any horror run.

With any luck a bumper festive period is in store. I think that’s all I want for Christmas. To reiterate last week’s thoughts- for a focused approach/starting point/something to build on, systems wise, i’d start with/focus on S1 + S4, for now. I suppose that until you experience a decent run with some of the strategies you may not have much confidence in them. Yes you can see how they have performed to date and the profit etc in 2017. But I appreciate that you may not believe it until you experience it, in terms of a winning run/X strategies going into profit. In the meanwhile I’ll try and make it as bearable as possible with section 2/Notes and various other content. And I mean, we always have Nick and others to tip us some winners, no pressure! 🙂

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • Jesus Josh be careful what you say Nick might just set up his own service and it’s back to not having a winner on a Saturday lol

    Aaron Lumsden 11/12/17 11:21 AM Reply


    • Haha, you cheeky bugger! 🙂 Winners on Saturday’s are quite hard you know! Consistently anyway. He may well do just that.(i’m sure we’d get a discount) 2017 hasn’t been too bad on the ‘tipping’ front, +201 points from around 400/440 or so outlay I think, not a bad ROI. (free jumps tips + notes) I’m not sure how sustainable a 40-50% ROI is…Hugh Taylor operates at 1-2%, most ‘pro’ gamblers I think would be in the 5-10% region maybe.

      But on the free jumps tips it tends to be volatile, with big spikes in a short space of time- (Jan 2016 +90 points, Festival week 2017 +63 or so) and in between I just bob up and down with varying degrees of success! Thankfully when i’m out of form Nick and others appear to be in form- oddly, when we tend to agree, they don’t seem to do that well!
      Josh

      Josh 11/12/17 1:18 PM Reply


      • I think Fergal Mael Duin read the blog this morning and couldn’t handle the pressure. I wish I was in form. Most of mine have ran backwards recently even if I have gotten value on the majority (6/1 into 3/1 today)

        Nick Mazur 11/12/17 2:29 PM Reply


  • To be brutally honest I was on the verge of using Saturday as my day off untill I signed up and discovered light at the end of the tunnel it can really hard to get out in front because the racing is so compacted on Saturdays and I’ve tryed sticking to j/t combos avoiding principle meetings and most other ways and I only signed up in November or late October Josh so I’m yet to really enjoy a systems downpour of profits but looking at past results there’s one due (please God )

    Aaron Lumsden 11/12/17 2:02 PM Reply


    • I think your final sentence echos all of our thoughts at the moment!! 🙂 It will turn.. S4 keeps plodding along at least, a small mercy in amongst a recent bit if turbulence/carnage, but that’s the game we are in. The harsh reality of trying to come out in front over a long period of time. It’s a tad painful at the moment though, esp if you hadn’t cashed in plenty pre end September or so. It will turn.

      Josh 11/12/17 2:32 PM Reply


  • Well that 3.15 race just sums up our luck at the moment grrrr

    christopher jones 11/12/17 3:28 PM Reply


  • Can not believe theres been no mention of the Skelton horse in the 2.15 where his chasers are winning at 62% in the last 14 days.

    Stephen Etheridge 11/12/17 4:38 PM Reply


    • I’ve touched on him in tomorrow’s post, I clearly got him wrong, hope you had a go.

      Josh 11/12/17 4:56 PM Reply


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