Members Daily Post: 09/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby 

12.45 –

On A Promise (all hncps + hncp hurdle + m1) 14 H3 I1 9/2 2nd 

Skip The Scales (m1) H1 I3 15/2  S5 UP

1.55 – Sakhees City (m1) H3 I3 G1 7/2 S4  UP

2.25 – Takingrisks (all hncps) 14 I3 9/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Aintree

1.30 – Sizing Codelco (hncp chase + m1) 14,30 I3 33/1 S5

3.10 – Ultragold (hncp chase) 14,30 H1 I1  12/1  S2 S5

 

Sandown

12.40 – Awesome Rosie (m2) I3 13/2 WON 13/2>9/2 

1.10 – Beat That (hncp hurdle) 14, 30 8/1 3rd 

2.20 –

Rayvin Black (all hncps + m1) I3 G3 16/1 S1 S2 S5

Jenkins (hncp hurdle + m1 + m1) 14,30  13/2

Zubayr (m2) 12/1 S2

William H Bonney (m2) 14,30 H3 I3 9/2 UP

Fidux (m2) 11/2 UP

3.30 – Southfield Theatre (m2) I3 11/1 S2 S5 UP

 

Chepstow

1.35 – Ice Cool Champs (nov hncps) H1 I3 11/8   UP

2.10 – Souriyan (all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 G3 11/2  S3A S4   S1 + S5 UP

2.45 – Buachaill Alainn (all hncps) ES+  25/1 S2 S3A

3.20 –

Modeligo (all hncps + m1) ES I3 40/1  S3 S5 UP

Lord Bryan (all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 4/1 S3A   WON 9/2 

3.50 –

Mzusu (NHF) 3/1 3rd

Needs Further (NHF) 7/4 UP

 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/156, +118.4) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.10 Sand – Beat That – 8/1 / 7/1

The price, as always, has lured me in here as this formerly smart hurdler returns to this sphere having been chasing on recent starts. It doesn’t look like he enjoys the chasing game and Nicky Henderson isn’t averse to switching them back. This horse has had some very long breaks in his career to date and it could well be that he has gone at the game. Every horse has their level though,provided he retains some ability. Maybe his mark is still too high here but back in the day he won the Sefton Novices hurdle (G1) and followed up at Punchestown. He was once rated in the 160s based on his hurdles exploits. If he found any of his old spark back over hurdles he could pick most of these up and carrying them over the line. He makes handicap hurdle debut here – Henderson 6/24,11p at Sandown with such types in the last 5 years. He ‘could’ out-class these, he could just be a shadow of his former self. His price allows me to roll the dice.

*

That will be it for ‘tips’ … I have put up Southfield Theatre in the free post for the London National. Worth a go at the prices for me. Elsewhere not much caught my eye at the prices from that list above- ignoring any S4 quals which I will never out-think! – I thought Skip The Scales was a shade too big but he won for us LTO and isn’t really doing anything different. He just looked better the further they went there but this does look a deeper race, in the sense that plenty are in form. Takingrisks gave me a headache – i have thrown £5 at him to see… but I wasn’t confident enough to tip him… he is lightly raced over fences, he drops in trip and in class. So, he ticks some boxes. The yard is in form. The question is over fitness- Richards can ready them but not that often (3/30,10p hncp chasers 121-365 days off since start 2014) and whether this trip is an inconvenience. But he ran well over it as a novice and this seems a bit of a ‘meh’ race where I wouldn’t be bullish about anything else. If this ground is that sticky/tiring sort of good to soft, then who knows. He may find it happening too quick, he may out-pace them. Maybe Richards is just getting a run or two in him before stepping him back up. I suspect so. I can feel the splinters from the large fence i’m perched on!

I’d be mildly surprised if any of the other 4/5 ‘biggies’ did anything having had a flick through but that was only brief and who knows. They looked up against it to me but some big prices there. Maybe for a reason. We are due a few big priced ‘surprise’ winners that didn’t make too much sense on paper- not many have in recent weeks.

*

Aintree…

Well it promises to be the best day i have had on a race-track to date. Behind National Day it is arguably my favourite day’s jumps racing of the year anyway. Two races over the National fences, one of which is responsible for two of my biggest winners on these pages to date (Oscar Time/Highland Lodge both 33/1) and then the likes of the London National from Sandown, with a passing interest in the Tingle Creek etc. This year I get to go as an owner which makes it special. Really Super – well I doubt she will be winning, and maybe not even the top 2 – but the prize money down to 7th is decent- that will pay for the diesel! 🙂 She was just flat the last day – antibiotics and possibly a harder race than we thought at Fakenham taking their toll. She found nothing for pressure having travelled and jumped well. I am intrigued to see how she gets on in a slog. She may hate it. But she settles and travels well usually. She won’t waste energy. She could well need 2 1/2 miles over hurdles so a test here is interesting. Hopefully she runs her race. She may hate the ground. We will learn plenty. I suspect we will put her away for a few months after this and formulate a plan! She’ll have a handicap mark and I suspect we will run her on the flat again one day. She is big though and could make a chaser! Plenty of options.

In terms of the card…

Well nothing is jumping out at me too much… I may play McCains in the 2.25 – he just has a special place in the punting heart having tipped/backed him at 16s when he won at the 2016 GN Meeting. He has won fresh, should be ok in the ground, and stays further. McCain is in superb form. So, he will get a track side £10 on the nose I suspect.

The only other race of interest to me is the Grand Sefton… I hope Mercian Prince wins for Amy and the team. He jumps very well and these fences could be the making of him. I know a few of the boys have had a go at 20s a few weeks back- I have a rubbish eye for Ante-Post / never consider it, so that ship has sailed! He will be up there and if jumping could win. The ground is a real unknown/test for plenty in here. Maybe I will throw £5s at those two ‘trends qualifiers’ below, you never know! I have no strong views on the race.

*

NOTE  Sunday’s post will be up Sunday morning, by 11am… most of the syndicate are travelling up to Liverpool for the day/evening. I think Amy may be staying in Liverpool also, she’s great fun. I believe we’ll be all out for dinner and then who knows! I suspect I’ll be a tad groggy in the morning. Bear with me 🙂 

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Watch 

2.05 Aint – Kiruna Peak (14/1< guide, m1)

3.10 Aint – Mystifiable (14/1< guide, m1+m3+m4)

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

1.30 Aint – Federici (m1)

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

1.00 Chep – The Last Of Them

*

TTP Jumps 2 Year Stats

3.20 Chep  – Longtown (m1)

*

 

TTP All-Weather

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

SAT Big Race Stats/Trends/Pointers/Shortlist

For those of you who like such things.. in general these three races felt a bit tentative on the stats front, and given the heavy/testing ground at Aintree, ability to handle conditions will be more important than a trends profile…this meeting is rarely run on such testing ground. 

2.20 Sandown : Listed Hurdle

  • 10/18 WON LTO
  • 9/10 had 5-18 career runs
  • 9/10 had 4-9 hurdle runs
  • 9/10 had 1-5 hncp hurdle runs
  • 5/10 WON LTO
  • Ran in a non handicap LTO: 0/22,8p
  • Trainers: N Henderson (4/12,7p, +19)

 

The three 9/10 stats: Jenkins / Fidux / Crossed My Mind / A Hare Breath / Evening Hush

Within those stats, horses that had 4 or 5 hurdle runs only are 6/14,7p, +28… Jenkins / Crossed My Mind

**

Aintree

1.30 – Becher Chase

  • 20/20 ran 16-60 days or 121-365 days ago
    • 1-15 days: 0/74,13p
  • 10 years…
    • GB Bred (0/22,4p…Black Lion)
    • OR 150+ , 0/14,2p
    • Ran over hurdles LTO: 0/24,3p
    • Ran over 3m exactly LTO: 0/41,7p
  • 10/10 had run in a grade 3 or higher in career (0/22,4p had not)
  • 10/10 had 4+ career wins (0-3, 0/44,9p)
  • 10/10 ran in a G3 or ‘non major’ race LTO (but small numbers for those that did not, 0/16,5p)
  • 5/10 ran at Cheltenham LTO
  • 10/10 had first career start aged 3 or 5
    • Aged 4: 0/61,7p, 6+ 0/29,5p
    • A random stat maybe, not one I’ve looked at before
  • Trainers: Twister 2/12,3p, the Irish have won it twice.

 

UPDATE I messed this up first run through, not sure what I saved in HRB but…

… Ran G3+ in career / 4+ career wins / Last ran non-major/G3 / ran 16+ days ago…

The Last Samuri / The Young Master / Westerner Point / Federici / Goodtoknow / Sizing Codelco / Straidnahanna Plus Highland Lodge / Lord Windermere 

Did not run over 3m LTO, leaves: The Last Samuri / Federici / Sizing Codelco / Goodtoknow Plus Highland Lodge / Lord Windermere 

Of those that has their first career run aged 3 or 5: The Last Samuri / Westerner Point Plus Highland Lodge / Lord Windermere 

 

**

Grand Sefton

Not much to go on here really…

  • 10/10 OR was between 2lb lower and 2lb higher than last run
  • 9/10 ran left handed LTO (9/96,25p, vs 1/51,10p RH)
  • 10/10 did not run 31-75 days ago

That leaves: Imjoeking / No No Mac  

*

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • A couple of weeks ago i commented on how top judges like Nicholls,Hobbs and Twiston Davies had used the services of Paddy Brennan in the past but let him move on. I also said there has to be something about Paddy,( who i rate highly as a jockey) that we do not see or know about.
    Heres another twist i believe is happening now. The Rooneys(Clare and Paul) have used Geraghty on Time To Move On, J.J Burke on Barney Dwan and N.Fehily on Lovely Job. Surely as stable jockey to F. O’Brien he should be on these good horses. It looks like the odious Rooneys have pulled the plug on Paddy. I hope i am wrong but the Rooneys pay the bills and select the jockey. Nobody in their right mind would say J.J Burke is a better jockey than Paddy. Again theres more than meets the ordinary punters eye to Paddy Brennan.

    Roddo 08/12/17 6:43 PM Reply


    • Yep I thought that was odd… who knows, maybe Jason Maguire, racing manager to Rooneys (i’m aware you’ll know that!) doesn’t like him/rate him/has things in the closet from riding days… no idea. Those said jockeys are quieter riders/more finesse – if there were real problems then FOB would get rid, but i take your point. Strange one…Paddy is big at home for Fergal as much as he is on the track. Maybe some think he is too hard on some horses, who knows. Of course as Fergal gets more good horses there is an increased chance as the spring comes around that he has more than one runner in some races- maybe they are hedging their bets. But I could be talking nonsense there.
      There could well be more than meets the eye, but it won’t affect any punting decision as yet. Well, not from me anyway.
      Josh

      Josh 08/12/17 6:49 PM Reply


  • 2.20 sandown
    Evening hush looks a bit big at 33’s having dropped to a mark of 133. Happy to forget her last two runs, having been on the go for a while. A
    Her form at Chepstow & kempton looks useful. In particular at kempton where she finished 4 lengths in front of fidux, who is 5/1 in the betting for tomorrow’s race.

    Dom J 08/12/17 6:58 PM Reply


    • You are a generous man forgiving him 2 bad runs. At 33/1 you have to I guess?

      martin colwell 09/12/17 10:46 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    There are no quals at WAW.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 08/12/17 7:46 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mike, you’re a star, not sure at any point between now and 8.45 am when i leave that my head would have been in any place to flick through that card. Thanks. appreciated.

      Josh 08/12/17 7:50 PM Reply


  • Josh

    Thanks for the Exeter video. Nice winner in the bumper. Never realised Fergal O’Brien was so prolific in that field. Definitely one to remember, plus the horse itself may be one to keep a lookout for after winning so easily

    Leigh

    Leigh 08/12/17 9:28 PM Reply


    • Hi Leigh, no problem, glad you found it of use and backed a winner from it! A nice winner for Evan Williams in the first also… one of you DMd me on twitter about him, and some quotes from Fergal (about 20 mins pre race)…he really liked/likes him, I think he may be one of his best , as a bumper horse anyway. I think he beat a decent horse there- for the pair of them to travel so smoothly on that ground, impressive. They clearly won’t go missed moving forward- but if we assume that could be very good form it may be worth noting the 3rd at 66s, small yard…be interesting what they do with that one- could win a weak bumper NTO or even a novice hurdle if they go that route… one for handicaps later down the line. And more likely to be a decent price due to connections. Those front two could be stars at some point.
      Josh

      Josh 08/12/17 9:32 PM Reply


  • Tomorrow I like the following: (so given how bad mine have been you want to stay clear-sorry about Lodge Josh)

    Houblon Des Obeaux Sandown Saturday 15:30 1pt e/w
    A Hare Breath Sandown Saturday 14:20 1pt e/w
    Highland Lodge Aintree Saturday 13:30 1pt e/w

    Have also had £5 e/w on Blameitonmyroots in the 14:45 at Chepstow given I wanted to take the front four in the market on with.

    Will try and get write ups done tomorrow morning if I have time. Would take the 4 places on both the Sandown races if you can.

    Nick Mazur 08/12/17 11:47 PM Reply


  • There are 3 horses that from a profiling point of view could run well today

    13.30 Aintree VIEUX LION ROUGE (EW)
    I know he has it all to do against the favourite but he has a record of 11111 on heavy ground and this is his time of year as record in December to February reads: 1U11121111.
    He does seem to like flat tracks and did beat the fav under these conditions last season at Haydock.

    14.45 Chepstow BUYWISE (EW)
    The horse is a bit of a thinker and I hope this undulating track can keep him interested. In his chase runs to date he has encountered heavy ground 3 times and won on all 3 occassions. He seems to be best suited to smaller fields as record in fields of 11 runners or less reads: 111153.

    14.25 Wetherby SPECIAL CATCH
    Chase runs.
    I feel that the horse will comeon for his first run at Ayr and when racing 31 to 60 days after last race record reads: 112. He has raced twice at 1m7.5f and won on both occassions. He goes well on soft ground and all of his wins have come in fields of 7 runners or less.

    David Peat 09/12/17 8:24 AM Reply


  • Hi josh on the train from Preston to aintree. Sun is shining and the sky is blue – for now. Well at least the snow has stopped
    Hope really super comes home safe only 5 to beat now!!
    Might come & spot you in the paddock weather permitting!! Don’t think my good lady will be too pleased If it’s snowing

    Harry Sandells 09/12/17 10:27 AM Reply


    • Good luck to all who are off the Aintree. I will venture up one day.

      I was in London last night for a function and so am a bit worse for wear. It was freezing in central London which is unusual and so it must be cold. I met someone over from Ireland who told me Crossed My Mind was a banker in the 2.20 SP. I backed it each way at 7/1 (try doing that on an App on your phone after a few drinks). They were off to the course today to cheer it on and drink more Guinness.

      I also like Imjoeking at 16/1 each way, 3.10 Ain. He has run well at the course before and seems nicely weighted.

      I have laid Politilogue at 3/1 after backing at 8/1 on Monday.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 09/12/17 10:57 AM Reply


      • I would never trust an Irishman passing out info mate!

        Nick Mazur 09/12/17 2:35 PM Reply


        • The horse ran a good race and rewarded the each way. Very nice win from Politologue!

          Good wins from Blaklion and Gas Line Boy in the conditions. Wont be like that come Grand National time.

          martin colwell 09/12/17 6:12 PM Reply


          • Hope you had a saver on mine the 14:20.

            Nick Mazur 09/12/17 6:27 PM Reply


  • Given the Pipe’s form at present and the ground record I am with Vieux Lion Rouge 1.30 Aintree
    Hugh

    alpha2 09/12/17 1:05 PM Reply


  • Cloonacool Huntingdon Sunday 14:00 1pt e/w-Nice winner and a place today to lift the spirits. I think Cloonacool looks like a fairly solid e/w bet. He is very well treated on his old form and was 2nd LTO on ground which might have been too fast. Trainer has won 2 of his last 4 races. The horse loves it here with a a win 2nd and 3rd from 3 runs. Paddy also has a cracking record for the trainer. Its a little conservative to go e/w but looks to be almost nailed on for a place (so after I said that he is bound to finish 4th)

    Nick Mazur 09/12/17 9:28 PM Reply


  • hello josh , I wont be renewing my subscription —wont bore you with the details _ but ive just made a donation as a thankyou cheers mick

    leojacob1 10/12/17 8:13 AM Reply


  • Huntington off so no uk racing i can feel the withdrawal symptoms coming on already , might as well go back to bed 🙂

    martin whittle 10/12/17 8:17 AM Reply


Post A Reply