Members Daily Post: 08/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Sedgefield

2.20 –

Dark And Dangerous (all hncps) 12/1 S2 2nd 12/1>5/1 

Discoverie (all hncps + m1) ES+ 8/1 S3A UP

Viserion (m1) 14  H3 I1 G3 7/2 S4 WON 7/2>5/4 (9/2/5/1 last night?) 

 

Exeter

1.35 –

Druids Folly (all hncps) 14 ES 18/1 S2 S3 UP

Albert D’Olivate (all hncps) 14 ES  G3 10/1 S1 S2 S3 UP

3.15 –

Umberto D’Olivate (all hncps + hncp chase) ES I3 25/1 S2 S3 S5 UP

Only Gorgeous (hncp chase + m1 + m1) ES+ 40/1 S3A UP

 

Sandown

12.50 – Shanroe Santos (all hncps + m1) H3 I3 6/1  UR

1.55 –

Darebin (nov hncps) H1 I3 G1 9/2 S4 UP

Good Man Hughie (nov hncps) 12/1  S2

3.05 – Gregarious (all hncps) I3 20/1 S2 S5 UP

3.35 – Le Capricieux (nov hncps) G3 8/1   S1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (29/156, +118.4) (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES – None today.

 

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Re-cap… a decent day for ‘the notes’ on Thursday… not to sound like a broken record but another one (hopefully first of many over jumps) for the ‘magic formula’ as covered in the video- stats qualifier (somewhere on this page) / lightly raced-unexposed in race type / a promise of more to come one day / ‘doing something different’ as a reason why they may improve today – this time… third run after a break (spot on fitness wise) + drop in distance + drop in class + different going + the cherry on top which was a Danny Cook chaser in a race with no clear pace, and no forlorn hope he may make all – which he did…and in context that there was a lot of dross in the race, no other ‘could be anything’ types in the race, and odds of 3/1 the field suggested it was open enough. Oh and the trainer was in form. Every box was ticked, a perfect example. Just need to be patient and wait for those to appear. I keep repeating the ‘magic formula’ mantra to drum it into my own head as much as anything else. But it works. I’m quite convinced of that. Whatever your ‘starting point’ (for me that’s trainer stats, but could be pace, a notebook horse, whatever) for highlighting a horse, that thinking, those questions, will highlight plenty of decent priced winners. You/I then just need to judge whether the price allows the chance. Do we think it is overpriced? That’s the hard bit. And I make plenty of howlers still. Maybe I always will. But that ‘horse based approach’ does negate any need for torturous ‘form study’ of every other runner in the race.   I’m not sure they’d be many bookies left if every punter had those ideas at the forefront of their mind. Clearly there are many other approaches you can take – my other tip was a ‘been there and done it’ exposed one- he’s still running!! Anyway, I hope some of you try and apply such thinking – whether to the content here or elsewhere – as I’d like to think your betting bank may increase even more, in time.  I get a buzz from finding those and ‘solving the puzzle’ in that way, but then I may be a sad exception! 🙂 I’m not sure i’ll maintain that 76% return on investment since Sept 1st (when I changed my mindset/approach a bit) but i’ll try. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Chelmsford

7.45 – Our Mullion (3yo+)

8.45 –

Tellovoi (all hncps) I3

Mr Potter (all hncps) I3

 

Dundalk 

6.00 – Pass The Ball

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D McCain (14/1< guide)

12.10 Sedge  – Midnight Walk (m3) WON 2/1 

2.20 Sedg – Viserion (m3) WON 7/2>5/4 

 

Paddy Watch

1.25 Sand – Night Of Glory (m1) (14/1<) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Firstly a couple of notes..

 

  1. If you haven’t read/absorbed Thursday’s ‘Jumps Results Review’ please take a couple minutes to do so. 
  2. To reiterate that there is clearly no set time when you should back any content on these pages. Since day one I have recorded results to widely available prices on the morning of racing, usually between 8-8.30am on weekdays. That’s what the results are based on, in terms of ‘early prices/BOG’ because I think that is the fairest way to do it. I will not declare on an inflated price the evening before that may disappear in minutes and that only a handful can get. BUT, that doesn’t mean you have to back the qualifiers in the morning. Yes that is when I add the prices and the ‘S‘ indicators, but after any amount of time hopefully they become second nature. At this time in the day, unless I have missed something, you have all the info required bar ‘morning price’.  I only say that as Nick mentioned something again in the comments… he backed that Sue Smith winner at 12/1 the evening before, the bugger!, and when he looked that horse qualified against S5 (I1/I3, 10/1+ at time he looked) I think he backed another such winner recently also. I have no idea what results would be if backing the evening before, maybe it all evens out over time, but I can’t think you’d do any worse than the officially declared results. Sadly I didn’t back him at 12s, I get to this time in the day – 6.30pm or so-  and part of me doesn’t want to look at another horse or oddschecker screen. And I’m usually hungry. But that’s my choice. 

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Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends : To follow asap,prob Friday morning (Becher Chase/Grand Sefton/Listed 2m hncp hurdle from Sandown..all on my notepad, just need to type them up and will save in a PDF)

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The importance of finding VALUE! David Massey wrote an article on the Daily Punt blog that discussed this concept in a better way than I ever could. I found it an interesting, informative and important read. The principles he touches on should be at the forefront of every punter’s mind… you can read it HERE>>> worth 2 mins of your time. (I also think he may be referring to a twitter ‘discussion’ I got in with many a punter a few days ago!) (the phrase… there is no such thing is a value loser is one of the most moronic around!)

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EXETER ‘Through the Card’ 

Video 1: A flick through the card using the ‘trainer pointers’ and stats on that screen…to be watched with a notepad/cup of tea/pint of beer.

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Some Exeter Notes… to be read with a large pinch of salt, a very quick look…

12.30 – Virgina Chick (10s when touched on in vid in terms of trainer here now 7/2, so price gone a tad) / Whisky John (small EW maybe)

1.00 – Run To Milan (I’d take a look pre race if I were there, see if he is settled, can be headstrong, wears hood) (market guide in this race i suspect, watch the big yards)

1.35 – Stats picks section 1

2.05 – Flaming Charmer (make all maybe, well, he will try)

3.15 – Barton Gift / Japek / Cailleach Annie / and eye on two above in section 1, have doubts, but you never know. Not impossible.

3.45 – Eur Gone West EW maybe, for chance. Fry horse seems fancied to follow up.

That’s about it, not bullish on much in that list, maybe Flaming Charmer would be the best bet.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • You can indeed get some value the evening before as I do sometimes with the bookmakers I can still bet with. You cannot do it for larger amounts though as you will get your account blocked. One other thing with such a methodology, try to get BOG as well as some horses go the other way and drift on the day of the race. Ante post betting is similar except you need to work out who may or may not turn up on the day. I was talking with someone the other day who had had £20K on at 3/1 on Buvier D’air for the Champion hurdle as he is convinced Fauheen wont make it and he can then lay off a short priced favourite. Bit of a sweat from now until March!

    The article Josh refers to talks about setting your own tissue. This takes knowledge and practice. I am OK at it but am much better at doing it on football.

    martin colwell 07/12/17 7:05 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh. I think you’ve already done a video showing the way you go about highlighting one of the unexposed/doing something different types but I can’t seem to find it. Could you point me in the right direction please? I know it would be a big job but having all the videos in one place would be great.
    Thanks

    jamiem 07/12/17 8:45 PM Reply


    • Hi Jamie, I’ll add it to the list! It’s not that big a job. .. you can access them all via my YouTube channel…they are all published through that… there may be a ‘watch via YouTube’ link in that video above or something. I’ll get a link in morning. All the public ones are on there… including the one you arw referring to. Members only are ‘unlisted’ though and only available in these posts I think.
      I do plan to write/record more along that front from my perspective. That ‘doing something different’ idea has only developed in my own head over last 10 months or so.
      Josh

      Josh 07/12/17 8:52 PM Reply


  • Tomorrow I like the following:

    Gunner Moyne Chelmsford City Friday 20:15 1.5pt win
    My Boy James Sandown Friday 15:35 1pt e/w

    I also couldn’t resist £5 e/w on Barton Gift in the 15:15 at Exeter at the odds

    Nick Mazur 07/12/17 10:50 PM Reply


  • Heading to Sandown today, going to be chilling ! Have backed Darebin and will take a look at the others, any other insights greatfully recieved

    Kevin

    Kevin 08/12/17 9:55 AM Reply


    • I heard a good word for Darebin last night and backed it at 9/2. They expected money for it this morning.

      martin colwell 08/12/17 10:06 AM Reply


    • I found a couple at Sandown which i thought were worth a 2nd glance , 2.30 Red River (although the trainer has chosen to go to Exeter himself 🙁 ) won very well at wincanton beating a decent yardstick that day …. thought he may have a race like this within its compass and at ..7/1 .. its a working mans price .
      3.05 Bally Gilbert , well at 1st it may seem a leap of faith to back this one but its had a wind op and the yards horses are running much better than when we last saw this fella . a drop in trip , a drop of 3lb and a drop into a 0-125 …. there has been some interest in the market also as it was available last night @ 8/1 Hills

      Over at Exeter , as i mentioned above ..Kim Bailey has taken himself off here with the 1 runner Another Venture , must have been tempted to run this at Sandown , so probably worth taking a closer look at this one … not many of these have run over 30 furlongs so it is a “guessing” game but at 7/1 on bf and the trainer turning up …

      so there are 3 to avoid ! … 🙂 Good Luck Kevin

      joners 08/12/17 11:43 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Thanks for the vid on Exeter,
    I’ve been through the card myself and one that I like is the Evan Williams trained 1.35 Cesar Collonges 4/1. As highlighted in the video the trainer has excellent win and place stats for Exeter and also qualifies on one of Paul Broadways micro systems for December, reproduced below.

    “Evan Williams…Class 3+4…Distance 2m31⁄2f up to 2m61⁄2f…Chase + Hurdle.
    8 bets…3 wins…6 placed…Profit +44.38…E/W strike rate 75%”

    As for the horse itself, it won lto over 2m1f in a class 4 nov hurdle at Carlisle on soft going but has also won a point over 3m so todays step up in trip shouldn’t be any problem.
    This of course is a step into handicap company in a class 3 but the horse is lightly raced and should have improvement and being related to Neptune Collonges, the step up in trip could also bring improvement.
    The price is short enough at 4/1 but I’m hopeful that he can do the business and give me a profitable visit to the course.

    Its not a card I’m finding easy to get value prices but I’ve done Barton Gift at 40/1 on the recommendations of yourself and Nick.

    Chris Mcilfatrick 08/12/17 10:35 AM Reply


  • Just seen your update on Exeter and i will reiterate your mention of Flaming Charmer who I fancy may try to make all and force Calipto into jumping errors.
    I’m not 100% convinced it will work though as Calipto may enjoy the small field and get into a nice jumping rhythm and pass Flaming late on.
    Not a race I’ll be lumping on though

    1.35 I’ll have a couple of savers on the stats picks

    Thanks for the preview

    Chris Mcilfatrick 08/12/17 10:45 AM Reply


  • hI Josh what a disappointing number of runners at Aintree tomorrow, one 3 runner, two 4 runner, two 7 runners and the 2 big races, seems to happen quite a bit at Aintree I seem to think, any thoughts? I may be wrong though!!
    Good luck with Really Super, I would be made up to have a runner at Aintree, my love of racing started with Red Rum back in the seventies and Aintree has stuck with me ever since, seen all the greats run there over the years, again pity on 2 places, should i be tempted with a little ew?

    Harry Sandells 08/12/17 11:51 AM Reply


    • Hi Harry,
      Yep just had a look through, very poor… I suspect the ground has something to do it with- will be very testing and clearly a few have dodged. Becher chase has held up thankfully, a decent puzzle to try and solve. Blacklion may win well but too short now. Grand- sefton 20 runners short of what it could be! That’s poor.

      Less said about the rest of the card the better, Really Super’s race has cut up well. I wouldn’t bother backing her. No idea how she will handle ground but we don’t know so will run her. Soft is fine. And the prize money goes down to 7th, 8th…so worst case it’s a great day out, and the diesel for half the way home is paid for haha. Albeit Amy has Mercian Prince up here also, and I can’t wait to see him over those fences.

      I did have an ante-post EW nibble at 25s, 3 places… so if she can grab third that would be ok. Given what a few of those have done on paper i’d be surprised if she got involved- just want her to show us what she does at home really, and finish off her race again. We think there was an excuse for Leicester when she was flat- no response for pressure. Could be she wants further in time, so if this is a slog it will be interesting how she does. No idea! Could be second/third, could be PU if hates conditions etc.

      I’ll get stuck into the Becher/Sefton asap.

      Josh

      Josh 08/12/17 12:45 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh. Backed your three and the three tipped by Sp2A to win in the 3.15 at Exeter. Still no winner but a fascinating race. All part of life’s rich tapestry! Onwards and upwards, as they say. Mike.

    Mike C 08/12/17 4:09 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, ah, that does sound painful! One of those what if’s in term of half the fences being dolled off. I suspect the winner may not have won = so you may be able to count yourself unlucky on the second- but then again more may have negatively affected mine also- hard to know and it is what it is… that is as good as losing gets from ‘tipping’ two of three biggies going close, SP a lot shorter than early prices, something to cheer- and hope one may win for most of the home straight- and a winner that wasn’t a surprise that I wouldn’t have backed/tipped at prices. So, I can’t complain. At least the SP2A bank should still be looking healthy enough. My jumps tips on another of my mini droughts but I take a 12 month view with those, they are what they are! In hindsight I back the other two EW, would have backed Regal Encore EW and i’d be sat here +35 points more- but it’s a game of fine decisions. Never mind.
      Onto tomorrow.

      Josh 08/12/17 4:15 PM Reply


      • It did seem like a race that everyone wanted to tip in. Across my whole portfolio I had 10 running for me and it didn’t include the favorite (fairly certain it was the most I have had since the Grand National). Luckily I had the front 4 although shame the winner was my only e/w bet but profit is profit I guess so I cannot complain even if Barton’s Gift would have been much better financially.

        Nick Mazur 08/12/17 4:24 PM Reply


  • Josh,
    I had to smile at your Exeter 12.30 write up where you wrote VIRGINA CHICK instead of VIRGINIA CHICK.
    Still smiling now.
    Andy

    Andy Ness 08/12/17 5:45 PM Reply


    • Well that has made me smile. No idea. yep, one letter making quite a difference there. And it was all downhill after that one bolted up.

      Josh 08/12/17 5:51 PM Reply


  • You’ve got Darebin as UP, but Betfair at least paid out on a place for 3rd, even though there were only 6 runners after 2 NR withdrawals. I’ve been putting a place and win bet on all S4 qualifiers as they place so often, and doing very well from it!

    Andrew Mackay 08/12/17 7:53 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Andrew, I don’t go by betfair for places but clearly you can! officially he was unplaced. Yep, not many of them run bad races. Would appear that if all else fails we have S4 haha , they keep ticking along. Pleased to hear you are doing very well from them, that’s what I like to read.

      Josh 08/12/17 7:57 PM Reply


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