Members Daily Post: 07/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Market Rasen

1.20 – Iskabeg Lane (m1) 14 I3 13/2 WON 5.4/1 > 7/2 (10p r4) 

2.25 – Fair To Middling (m1) 20/1 S2 UP

3.30 –

Nautical Twilight (all hncps) ES 10/1 S2 S3 UP

Roxyfet (hncp hurdle) ES H3 I1 3/1 S3   3rd 6/1

 

Wincanton

1.35

Wizards Bridge (hncp chase + m1) 14 ES+ H1 I1 11/2 S3A UP

Pink Gin (hncp chase) 30 I3 G3 8/1 2nd 

Gorsky Island (m1) G3 6/1  S1 UP

Daklondike (m1) H3 3/1  WON 7/2 

2.05 –

Capeland (hncp hurdle + m2) ES+ H3 I3 G3 11/4  S3A  S4  2nd 9/4 

Ivors Queen (m1 ) 14 ES 10/1 S2 S3 UP

3.15 – Third Act (hncp chase + m1) 14 ES+ I1 G1  7/1  S3A  UP 

 

Leicester

1.45 – Minella For Me (all hncp + hncp chase + m1) G3  11/4  UP

2.15 –

Lagavara (all hncps + m1) 30 H3 I3 11/4  WON 4/1 

Miss Fleming (all hncps + m1) I3  4/1  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (28/154, +114) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

11.20 MR -Iskabeg Lane – 6/1 WON 5.4/1 > 7/2 (10p R4)

2. 1.35 Winc – Wizards Bridge – 6/1 (PP/BV) 11/2 gen UP 3/1

Ah well two horses that near enough halved in price, one romping home, making all as hoped, the other not so much! BTW, the pre race analysis of the 1.20 on RUK was the worst I have ever heard, as was the discussion on Iskabeg Lane. Amateurish. And Awful. 

 

‘Write up’…in video form for those interested…

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Note:Remember for the purposes of this test I am using the ‘Flat Advised Strategies’ so the ‘S’ symbols refer to said strategies within the Key. I have no idea if they will repeat/mirror those, but again, as with the jumps ones, maybe the most confidence can be taken with any strategy based on the ratings pointers (red symbols) (so for the Flat that is S1,S2,S4,S5,S6) I would advise extreme caution about backing any of these systematically at the moment, but they should be useful starting points for further research, if nothing else!

 

Chelmsford

6.30 –

Captain Lars (m1) ES+ 7/1 S3A

Born To Finish (m1)  ES H1 I1 G3 11/4  S1 S2 S3 S4

7.00 –

Holiday Magic (m1) ES+ I1 66/1 S3A S6

London (m2) I3 G3 16/1 

8.30 – Hediddodinthe (all hncps) 14 H3  6/4 

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D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.15 Leic – Dark Sunset (m3)UP

 

Paddy Watch

1.35 Winc – Jennys Surprise (14/1< guide, m3) UP

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

12.40 Leic – Silk Run UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Jumps Results ‘Review’

Firstly I have updated the ‘advised strategies’ link in the ‘KEY’ above.

I have had a look at the P/L results (jumps – advised strategies) for the last 4 months/16 weeks or so since 13th August- 3rd December

  • Total– All Strategies Combined (so inc ‘multiple’ qualifiers): +224 points (morning prices entered next to horse/BOG, 1 point win bets) +245 if using BFSP for S1 +S5
  • S1 +26 ; S2 +89 ; S3 +16 ; S3A +22 ; S4 +37 ; S5 +34

 

Those totals include results for the last month, which don’t read so well, not that I care for month to month figures  (30th Oct- 3rd Dec)

  • Total: -65 points (I won’t make that figure bold!!) 🙂
  • S1 -15 ; S2 -53 ; S3 -26 ; S3A +15 ; S4 +14 ; S5  0 (+10 BFSP)

 

In effect in the 12 weeks or so from 13th August to 30th October the portfolio of advised strategies had won +290 odd points. Or +£725 to £2.50 win bets. They were due some sort of correction as while there is plenty of gold in these parts (over time!), sadly it isn’t a consistent/steady flow from week to week, month to month. I wish the 2017 profit to date, from all approaches, was spread out evenly –  I suspect i’d have double/treble the membership numbers but that’s the game i’m in. Given the win strike rates etc none of those losing runs are a shock. (see table below) The only strategy concerning me at the moment is S3 so that is something for me to keep a watchful eye on. There is a reason I try to encourage sensible staking (starting with £2-£2.50s) and proper banks (150-200 points min, depending on what you follow) as sadly there is always a chance you join at the start of an uncomfortable period, especially if attacking any of the content systematically, or a combination. There have been some agonising second places in this run as well which I don’t wish to dwell on! Painful. But that’s racing. And if you conveniently ignore S2, which is the most volatile of the lot, it isn’t that bad!

All ‘ratings pointers’ (red symbols) based strategies  (S1, S4, S5) are on +97 points for the period,  -1 point for ‘November’.

I have spoken about the below many times before, and have stolen this table from ‘the punters pal.com’ , i’m sure they won’t mind. This looks at the maximum likely losing run per 1000 bets in line with the win SR percentage. Clearly there will be many smaller losing runs within that sample for said SR, and occasionally they may be a bit longer. Long losing runs are part of the game, it’s how you prepare for them/get through them, that matters. Formulate a plan based on the evidence (for whatever approach you take/service you follow), and stick with it.

Sometimes an advised betting bank can be blown, but if you have started small hopefully such damage is manageable. Don’t do what I did aged 18 and blow £2650 on a service, having dived in with a stake/an amount I couldn’t really afford to lose (maxed out two overdrafts for about 3 years after that)..albeit I was pig headed and didn’t quit until the advised 100 point bank was gone! So, that stood me in good stead, in a way. Every cloud!  Sadly their glossy brochure was bullsh*t, who knew. 🙂 But clearly starting with £2.50 bets and not being a naive/greedy sod would have been a tad more bearable.   On we go…

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Really Super

All being well ‘my’ horse will be running at Aintree on Saturday in the Listed Juvenile Hurdle. Going there as an owner is a dream come true. Provided it isn’t heavy and there isn’t a problem before then, we will run. I’d be mildly surprised if she placed but there is prize money down to 8th I think and it will be a great day out. She is eligible to run so may as well, for me there is no reason not to. She is still in the ‘could be anything’ category and if she repeated her homework on the track she would run with credit. She was just ‘flat’ at Leicester, possibly due to a course of antibiotics a few days before, so who knows.

A Spare Ticket.... if she does run it means I’ll have a spare ticket going, which I paid £12.50 for (early bird) – I won’t need it if she runs i don’t think… so if you are going and were planning on buying your ticket on the gate anyway, do post a comment (first come first serve) and as soon as I can confirm I don’t need it, I can email it across (you can print off or show bar code on a smart phone) and you can send me the dollar 🙂 (you’ll then have around £12.50 free for more beer)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Visage Blanc Leicester Thursday 15:25 1pt e/w-I think the bookies have made a grave error in the pricing on this one. She ran a pretty hot race on his last start last season with the winner rated 137, Flying Tiger who won the Triumph in 6th and most of the others now rated in the 110-120s. On her previous run before that again she ran with credit against horse now rated much higher than she is. She would have needed the run LTO and maybe the ground was a shade fast (not to mention she appeared not to be put into the race). Drops into a pretty bad class 5 here and has been dropped 3lbs and the soft ground will be a plus. She has apparently strengthened over the summer and I just noticed that she also hits Josh’s trainer micro. I would have expected her to be a third of the current price.
    Wizards Bridge Wincanton Thursday 13:35 1.5pt win-I tipped up Wizards Bridge LTO at a decent price and he finished a creditable 4th with the front 4 clear of everything else. He has actually been dropped a pound for that run. Trainer brings him to a track he does very well and I loved how Harry Cobden gets the ride considering no one has ridden better at the track than he has in recent times (26/68, 41p in his short career). Tizzard is on a roll with 4 winners from his last runners. I think the track, trip and ground are fine and so long as the last race didn’t leave a mark he should be too good for these.

    Nick Mazur 06/12/17 11:11 PM Reply


    • Sorry Nick, cursed Wizards Bridge for you haha- i agree with all of that, the final piece to boost confidence was the fact I thought this race was there to be won from the front- and they have been aggressive with him before- and actually him not having to go past horses may be no bad thing. In any case, out of all those at the time of looking he did look the most interesting at the prices. Should go well!
      Yep had a nibble on the McPherson horse last night, that free post angle has/will find biggies moving forward, hopefully another but we shall see! Not a track the trainer runs too many at but worth a go at the price to find out. GL

      Josh 07/12/17 10:18 AM Reply


      • I was going to text you but that’s him in 4 different strategies on this site I am on (could have left him off the notes if you were going to tip him 😛 ) as well as my own stuff. The Tizzard form is meant to say 4 from 9 BTW. The Cobden booking does give it that sort of plan feel given you would think Colin would prefer to have him win on the horse rather than Mitchell although that could be overthinking things.

        Nick Mazur 07/12/17 10:40 AM Reply


        • haha- he’ll make all and it will never be in doubt, no worries there… i never know how it works with conditionals and the yards they are attached to… as yet you want them to build up exp but if you have a few big handicap plots for various horses in mind , Evan Williams would want mitch to be claiming as much as he could be- that is prob over-thinking and no idea if a trainer in that position gets a say on his rides for outside yards or not. So it could be a positive that HC is on, in sense EW doesn’t want him on another winner that isn’t his! (that view is prob nonsense)
          Anyway.. ah, well I treat members Notes / + free tips as separate – but yep you must have a big out-lay…. just the type of double top rated we like as well, with a ‘H’ . What could go wrong!!
          Josh

          Josh 07/12/17 10:54 AM Reply


          • backed in to 3-1 lets hope thats a good sign got 6-1 early on.

            martin whittle 07/12/17 1:37 PM Reply


            • Sadly not, 6s was too big on paper, and being backed into 3s the only positive… the rest of them, no issues there, wasn’t backing the winner at 3s. i’d have taken one of the two winning, so happy enough.

              Josh 07/12/17 1:47 PM Reply


              • Whilst it won’t help with my account at least Iskbeg was 12s last night so I have both the S1 bet on there as well as £20 e/w from my main tipster mostly at 12s before the R4 to soften the overall financial blow.

                Nick Mazur 07/12/17 1:50 PM Reply


                • Iskaberg romped home, counting your money early.

                  Wizards Bridge looked to me he did not fancy it. Back and forth and Cobden cowboying it along. Would want to see something better before backing again.

                  martin colwell 07/12/17 2:16 PM Reply


  • Over the last two year P Nicholls has had 5 winners from 8 runners in NH Flat races at Wincanton of those that had 0 career run won 4 from 6 and those with one career run had a 50% SR (1 from 2 this is also the same when H Cobden rides for the stable). He has GRAND SANCY in the final race at Wincanton today

    David Peat 07/12/17 10:04 AM Reply


    • Drifted out to 11/2, enough runners for an each way squeeze?

      The guys seem confident on Wizards Bridge today. I have followed them in. I like Glen Rocko at a price in 12.40 Lei and Huntsman Son 2.25 MR.

      Good luck

      martin colwell 07/12/17 11:18 AM Reply


  • Lei 3:25 Karl Marx currently 33s PP
    Looks with an ew shout
    Has won c5s previously and done ok in c4s too. Had a rating of 104 in his prime. Down to 77 now.
    Came 4th on soft at wincanton a few weeks ago. Hit the 3rd fence from finish and lost a win/place finish.
    Could go well again at a price.

    Darren Braddock 07/12/17 10:11 AM Reply


    • Non runner ha!

      Darren 07/12/17 11:41 AM Reply


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