Members Daily Post: 06/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ludlow 

1.30 – Midtech Valentine (hncp hurdle + m1) 14  I3 12/1  S2 S5 UP 12/1

2.05 – Moss On The Mill (hncp chase) ES+ 15/2 S3A UP 16/1 

3.40 – Sea Story (NHF) 14,30 9/2  UP

 

Haydock 

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 3rd Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (28/153, +115) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.30 Ludlow – Midtech Valentine – 1 point win – 12/1 / 11/1 UP 12/1

Ah, that was poor, moving on swiftly. Picked the wrong battle there but even so that was rubbish…beaten a long way before any lack of class told etc, she should have been closer to the second. No market move so the value eyes didn’t even work that time! 

Hmmm… well a rare foray on a more exposed horse but MV is ‘only’ 6 and I don’t think this race is beyond her. I think 11/1 is a tad insulting and she could easily be half that price to my eyes and as such I was happy to have a dart. She is a couple of pounds out of the handicap but that wasn’t a sufficient reason for me to leave her. She has always done best in small fields (4/7,5p 1-7 runners hncp hurdles) and Tom O’Brien knows her well (2/4,4p in hncp hurdles). She has won over CD, her trainer is in form (hitting the woodwork plenty, they are running consistently) and the horse is generally consistent, rarely running a bad race. It was the Haydock run four starts ago that interested me. That was a C2 over 19f and she led approaching two out and ran a creditable third. That day she had the Skelton horse well behind and she is 7/2 today…and she hasn’t exactly progressed. On that basis the prices between the two seem a bit out of sync. This is her third run after a break and she gets first time CP which may help. She does come here in form as well having run ok LTO, going forward/one pace at the finish – which I generally prefer to going backwards/fading out of it. She will also track the pace and be in the right spot, no excuses. The King/Skelton horses are usually held up albeit in this small field it may not make too much difference, provided the fav doesn’t get away, which she might. I don’t think she should be this price. You can make some sort of case, especially if you took out the fav, this could be anyone’s race.

of the rest… well the fav may well make all and win easily. But she is 10lb higher than last time- we were on the Alan King horse that day who was coming to challenge – this horse kicked the hurdle and that put off our section 1 qualifier who made a mess of the jump and came down. Those two were going to battle all the way to the line- so she has gone up 10lb and she may not have won. This is a different track also. She may not need to improve again but I’ll never be put off by a rival. Bar what would have been the front two in that race, i’m not sure what she beat either. (0/7,1p horses to have run since) Skelton’s may run well, so may Midnight Jazz if fully revved up (which she may be)- but MV’s price seems wrong. She should run her race. Maybe she won’t be good enough but we’ll find out soon enough. There is some method to my madness at least. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was a Maria’s Benefit- Maria Valentine 1-2. They could be in that order all the way round, depending on what they do with Midnight Jazz.

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Whose silly idea was it to ‘tip’ in a maiden hurdle?? 🙂 One of those, if you missed my post race thoughts for the two tips it is below… trackers at the ready…

Hmm…well no total shocks there…Skipthecuddles didn’t budge in price really which had me concerned and after 2 flights it was clear he wasn’t winning… you don’t hold up a horse last around Southwell, and race them 5 wide, if you wish to get competitive! 🙂 That’s the handicapping game and in the trackers he goes. Now, if I were the trainer asked to explain the ride I would say ‘we have ridden him more aggressively the last twice and he has cut out very quickly, he has his quirks/problems, and we were keen to get him finishing off his race…we hoped he’d be good enough to get involved and would have more left at the finish’ – you couldn’t say much to that as a steward! But he wasn’t given much of a chance…i’ll have to watch it again but I don’t think he had much in the tank come the end, the race had gone by the time he turned in… it could be they have a plan…it could be this is as good as he is at the moment…his last three runs have been poor and he now has questions… one to note… Sir Egbert blew a gasket and was keen again, the bugger. I don’t mind backing 4/1 shots at 7s, a small positive. Lacey has a few youngsters on his hands that as yet haven’t learnt how to race properly…they will be well handicapped when they do!! 🙂

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I can’t bring myself to watch the run of Guards Chapel again…best not watch if you haven’t seen it. 28/1 bog / 55.00 BFSP for S1 + S2 … he led over/after the last and I was in some sort of dreamland as the fav looked in trouble. Sadly both that horse and his jockey had other ideas. Still, best take the positives… they are the kind of horses they find, esp S1, and they will have winners in that odds range again, but the sooner the better!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield – NONE 

Newcastle

3.25 – Belle De Lawyers (all hncps + m1) 14 ES+ 33/1 S3A UP

5.00 – Arahat (2YO) 10/1 UP

5.30 –

Le Roi Du Temps (all hncps) 33/1 UP

Rock Warbler (all hncps)  I3 H3 11/2 UP

Newmarket Warrior (m1) 14 I3 H3 5/1 UP

6.00- Equiano Springs (all hncps) 10/1 WON 10/1>9/1 

 

Dundalk 

No Geegeez Speed/Inform Speed for Irish Racing…

4.10 – Clare Island (3yo+) H1 5/2 3rd 

5.15 –

Freedom Chimes (3yo+) 16/1 UP

King Jeremy (m2) 14/1 UP

5.45 –

Whatever It Takes (3yo+) 12/1 UP

Taste The Salt (m1) 12/1 UP

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Donald McCain (14/1< guide)

3.30 Hayd – Tawseef 2nd 7/1

 

S Dow AW 

2.50 Ling – Dutiful Son (any odds) WON 7/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

In case you missed it… 

The Week That Was

This week’s article includes three handicappers to keep onside, a look at Gavin Sheehan, Evan Williams and a re-cap on the Pipe PU stats.

You can read that HERE>>>

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Thanks for the various comments under Tuesday’s post and of course all positive comments are gratefully received! 🙂 (polite negative comments also welcome, nothing is hidden in this corner of the world)  A good discussion, worth a read. I’m glad some of what I drone on about gets through… I particularly enjoyed Patrick’s ‘nuggets of gold’ comment, very apt. 

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Trainer Track Profiles: All-Weather 2018: Final report HERE>>> 

(also now saved in The KEY ‘Research Articles’ link)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • You see some shocking horses on a Monday and a Tuesday. The word slow and poor could have been invented for them. Bets kept to a minimum on these days.

    I read the comments re Gavin Sheehan. He does seem to be going well at present. What does anyone think of Harry Skelton? I think he is OK but no world beater. His brother moans that he does not get outside rides. Do other trainers not rate him?

    Ben Aitken picked up on the improved winner ratios of Rose Dobbin. Are there any angles we can exploit with this trainer?

    Just stimulating a bit of debate really.

    martin colwell 05/12/17 6:37 PM Reply


    • Yep young Gavin boosted his stats with Snowden somewhat, highlighted him in the Lingfield video also, 10/1SP.

      Harry is decent albeit will always be tricky given the blood relationship – he isn’t doing anything wrong but you could only judge with firm numerical evidence. I can’t think that he is free to ride out at many other yards that often?? That plays a big role..surely he is at his brothers every day given the size of their string… and that must play a role in him getting outside rides…most trainers would honour jockeys who come in and ride out etc.
      I’m not sure he loses on too many of his brothers that other jockeys would win on. I can’t think Harry’s dad let’s him get away with poor horsemanship!

      Rose Dobbin was on one of my lists to have a look at…not sure how big her string is so generic research could be difficult…but I can look for next week’s ‘the week that was’ and see if anything crops up.

      Josh 05/12/17 6:54 PM Reply


    • I completely disagree Martin. Some great bets can often be found at the start of the week. Same goes for Sunday’s which a lot of tipsters take the day off on. Certainly easier trying to go through 8-11 runner races than trying to solve one with 20+ on a Saturday and whilst some people like the challenge I definitely would rather avoid challenges and stick to the easy races which bring in the most profit.

      Nick Mazur 06/12/17 12:41 AM Reply


      • I tend to make more money on horses on Saturdays and bigger meetings but others may be able to dig out winners on these days. Probably the level I bet at puts me off having that amount on such poor horses in comparison with those that run in better races? I will be looking out for winner finders at these meetings on this blog.

        martin colwell 06/12/17 9:28 AM Reply


  • Smothering day on the qualifier front so looking elsewhere DUELING BANJOS 2:05 Ludlow. I think he may be better than 9/2. Made a bad mistake last time out but back with his usual jockey today. Has won off a mark of 130 and trainer and jockey both in good form.

    Dare I mention BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY 25/1 3:20 lingfield
    On paper he is well handicapped rated 55 today once won off a mark of 120. How low can he go.

    Warren bottomley 05/12/17 11:41 PM Reply


    • How can a spell checker change the word quiet to smothering.!!!!!!!!!!

      Warren bottomley 05/12/17 11:43 PM Reply


  • I know it`s a couple of days away and i have already picked Blaklion, but, Highland Lodge looks far to big at 14/1 / 16/1 in places ,looks big to me!!
    Been there done it etc…
    What does everyone else think?

    Stewart 06/12/17 7:25 AM Reply


    • I think from one viewpoint Blaklion outclasses them but at the price and those fences?? Highland Lodge always turns up for these races and is laid out for them and so you know it will be fit to go. I know Blaklion was 4/1 but have not looked lately.

      Also on Saturday I am om Politilogue at 8/1 v Douvan and Fox Norton etc. I am banking on Douvan coming out/not being fit. I would then be able to lay at half that price. I do like Fox Norton but need to see Douvan run well before thinking he is back.

      martin colwell 06/12/17 9:35 AM Reply


  • There are some horses running today that still may be improving and so can keep on winning. 12.10 LP Temaraire, only 6/4; 1.30 Lud Maria’s Benefit, 6/4 but may well drift and 3.30 HP Clan Legend, 3/1.

    martin colwell 06/12/17 10:26 AM Reply


    • OOps. only 1/3 and a marginal loss. Particularly disappointed with Clan Legend finding nothing 2 out even if it pecked!

      martin colwell 06/12/17 3:37 PM Reply


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