Members Daily Post: 05/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Southwell

1.50 –

Skipthecuddles (all hncps) I3 G3 9/1  UP

Rolling Maul (all hncps) 20/1 S2 UP

 

Lingfield

2.30 – Clayton (m1) I3 G1 3/1  WON 7/2 

3.00 – Vino Griego (m1) 15/2 UP

3.30 –

Mr Fickle (m1) I1 9/1 S5  UP

Guards Chapel (m1) G3  11/1 S1 S2  2nd 28/1 > 55.00 BFSP.. pass me the sick bag, that is the most painful big price loser I can remember for quite a time..they are always worse when after the last flight you think you’ve won. Nearly. Painful. On we go. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 26th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (28/151, +117) (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES

1.50 South – Skipthecuddles – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP

2.20 South – Sir Egbert – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP

 

Hmm…well no total shocks there…Skipthecuddles didn’t budge in price really which had be concerned and after 2 flights it was clear he wasn’t winning… you don’t hold up a horse last around Southwell, and race them 5 wide, if you wish to get competitive! 🙂 That’s the handicapping game and in the trackers he goes. Now, if I were the trainer asked to explain the ride I would say ‘we have ridden him more aggressively the last twice and he has cut out very quickly, he has his quirks/problems, and we were keen to get him finishing off his race…we hoped he’d be good enough to get involved and would have more left at the finish’ – you couldn’t say much to that as a steward! But he wasn’t given much of a chance…i’ll have to watch it again but I don’t think he had much in the tank come the end, the race had gone by the time he turned in… it could be they have a plan…it could be this is as good as he is at the moment…his last three runs have been poor and he now has questions… one to note… Sir Egbert blew a gasket and was keen again the bugger. I don’t mind backing 4/1 shots at 7s, a small positive. Lacey has a few youngsters on his hands that as yet haven’t learnt how to race properly…they will be well handicapped when they do!! 🙂 

 

 

Skipthecuddles… well at 9/1 he is worth a play here. He has a few questions/niggles that I think are built into his price. He has that ‘magic formula’ albeit not as exciting as some.. he is a stats qualifier / lightly raced / unexposed in this sphere (3rd handicap hurdle run) / he drops in class (<10k C3, it is a weaker C3 to LTO) / second run after a break / change in going … He was pitched into the Neptune in March and then sent over to Punchestown. I think that is some indication of what they think of him and he really should be going close here. He out-ran his 66/1 odds in the former. The niggles? Well that PU LTO is a concern…there is a chance he needed the run (the market/his SP may not support that theory though) and that he hated heavy…or the two combined found him out. Many a trainer in heavy ground will instruct jockeys to ease off a horse once all placed chance is gone, esp on their first run of the season. There really is no point in bottoming out a horse in such a way. He has weakened markedly on his last two starts so that is a concern, there could be something up with him. The ground is the other unknown.. it is impossible to say at the moment what his preferred conditions are as performances in non handicaps are only useful up to a point as class can get you a long way in those, even if you hate the going. Again, it comes down to price. 9s allows me to roll the dice and be wrong. I would like to see some market support but then again this trainer has winners at all prices inc plenty of drifters. It is a fine balance, the pros versus the cons, but his profile and what they have done with him to date (as an indication of what they think of his potential) has made him worth a stab at 9s. If I was sure he would run his race that is a few points too big to my eyes.

 

Sir Egbert… I want to get in the habit of using all the stats content on these members’ pages as potential ‘tipping fodder’ and this Tom Lacey angle is doing well at the moment… history is being made here I think…outside of the Albert Bartlett at the Festival (50/1 + 12/1 winners tipped on here in last 4 years…you do remember those, Very Wood the biggest priced horse I’ve landed in my blogging life to date…need a 66/1 shot next!) I think this will be the first even non-handicap/maiden/novice hurdle I have tipped in…so, we all know what happens now. But I think this looks a 2 or 3 horse race and at 7s i’ll play. He ticks the angle below and Tom Lacey is in fine form… 3/11,6p last 14 days, 6/26,13p last 30 days. I wanted a bit more than that though so I had a look at his track stats…in non-handicaps at Southwell in the last five years (hurdles+NHF) he is 6/23,8p, +44 SP!.. Dunne has ridden one of those to victory here from five rides. All of that was enough to lure me in. There is a chance he comes on for his last run where he did do plenty- he does seem a bit headstrong and will need to settle better. The first half mile could be crucial here. If he does then he will go very close. The ground is an unknown… soft is clearly no issue but Good is a question… he may relish it he may hate it. Again, the price allows the play in my view. On what these horses have done on the track to date he has the best GG speed figure by far and is up there on Inform. So, another positive.

Of the others in the race.,. well I am happy to take on Skelton’s who seems short enough given that profile/what he did the last day. He didn’t find much for pressure and they reach for the TT here. He would have been fit although lost to a 2/9 shot so wasn’t expected to win. Still, it was a 3 runner race and he has questions. Tom George is 3/6,5p here in maiden hurdles in the last 730 days… and he has won this race twice, so he has to be a main danger. But this one has a ground unknown, a fitness question, and it is his first hurdle run. All of that makes 3s seems fair rather than overly generous. The rest in here look like they may be out to get a handicap mark/build up experience, and there are no other trainer stats for this race type here that caught my eye.

Plenty to like about his chance in the context of price. Let’s hope he settles early and is thereabouts jumping the last. He ran the last day as if they want to get a win with him, rather than playing about to get a handicap mark. It may be we need to wait for his handicap debut but he’ll be winning for us at some point soon! 🙂

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That’s it for ‘tipping’, nothing else stood out at the prices/had the kind of profile I like to attack. I wasn’t leaping with joy to dive into any of the Moore qualifiers at Lingfield above but we shall see how they go, a few have a ground niggle on soft. Rolling Maul… the market suggests he doesn’t have much of a chance, but I will throw some change at him from my ‘system bank’ – my minimum stake… just because, as per the video, he is a ‘been there and done it horse’ where all race conditions are fine and he is well enough handicapped…so in that context you can never fall of your chair when they win. He looks a bit out of form and does have his own ideas about the game. But you get a decent price and at least he is doing something different, namely a big drop in class. This could well be his level these days. I don’t want to go mad on him as there are plenty of 5/6 year olds in this with their futures ahead of them and i’d have thought one of the younger brigade will take this, with any luck Skipthecuddles. But he isn’t a forlorn hope at his best. To my eyes anyway. I have seen plenty worse S2 qualifiers in recent weeks!

 

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VIDEO

An in depth look at the two qualifiers in the 1.50…a window into my thinking/approach… (i’ve done this is one take as I do with all videos, have yet to watch it back, and no doubt i have missed out a few things or haven’t explained the odd thing very well!)

Hopefully there is something in there for you to ponder/take away but in any case with any luck you find it of interest…. (just about under 30 minutes so put the kettle on 🙂 )

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather: NONE

 

Paddy Watch

2.0 Ling – For Carmel (14/1< guide, m3) 3rd

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.20 South – Sir Egbert UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

The Week That Was

This week’s article includes three handicappers to keep onside, a look at Gavin Sheehan, Evan Williams and a re-cap on the Pipe PU stats.

You can read that HERE>>>

 

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Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 4/28,13p, -3 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 3/21,9p, -5
  • S1 (0/3,1p, -3) S2 (0/11,2p, -11) S3 (0/4,2p, -4) S3A (1/2,1p, +7) S4 (3/5,5p, +11) S5 (0/3,2p, -3)

 

NOTES: 1/7, +0.5 

Thoughts… a ‘stemming of the blood’ week if backing everything multiple times/just the once. S2 is still bleeding but I have no concerns on that front…it will turn around at some point.  To my subjective eyes many have looked up against it on paper in recent weeks and I haven’t been near to ‘tipping’ many of them. I’m not surprised plenty have been falling out the back of the tv.  But, they will throw up a few 25/1 winners soon enough that make little sense on paper. That is the point if backing S2 systematically. S3 is still concerning me a tad, S3A is looking better. It does feel like there may be an explosion of profit soon enough, across the board, although i’ve always been an optimist…

Strategy 4 (treble rated) goes from strength to strength, now… 21/48,33 places, +37.3 … I keep thinking it will level down soon enough but it’s just had it’s best week and shows no sign of stopping… the placed horses give the confidence as not many qualifiers run bad races. The Flat ‘treble rated’ levelled off to a 30% win sr after 130 bets, so we shall see. All treble rated, Flat + Jumps, are sitting on +76 points, from 178 bets, not bad going.

178 bets / 60 wins / 99 places / 33% sr / 55% win|place / +76 points (1 point win bets) (or +760 to £10 bets, or +£380 to £5 bets… )

…unless the three ratings sets I use change methodology, I am struggling to see why they won’t just keep ticking along, and S4 clearly finds over-priced horses, even near the top end of the market. That may level down to a 25% win SR but the profit will keep ticking along… as yet they haven’t had a losing run of note that I can remember..even a 30% win SR will have losing runs of 19 or so every now and then. Anyway, I hope those figures give you some confidence… if you just wanted one systematic strategy to follow, that may be the one for you. It has the best winning SR of any so far, which of course means the losing runs will be less severe, and half the time you get a run for your money. It is of course a more focused approach with fewer qualifiers, so maybe less stress. Always options. Any forecast/tricast / placepot players may want to note their consistency for including qualifiers in any such bets.

On we go. I’ll pull together some November Stats asap.

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OF INTEREST/NOTE …

Nick has mentioned how he follows ‘double top’ rated, and one of you (i forget,  apols, but I noted the comment) enquired as to S1 / S5  that have more than one ratings pointer… so, I hope you find the following of some use… these stats are since 31st August (when Geegeez speed returned for jumps) up to end 3rd December…

Jumps

Double Top Rated (any price)

G1 + H1 : 5/12,7p, +3

G1 + I1 : 2/10,4p, -4

H1 + I1 : 6/19,11p, +6

 

Within those three combos there are ‘multiple’ qualifiers for those that were ‘treble top rated’ (which would have been picked up in Strategy 4): So, H1 I1 G1… they are… 2/8,4p, -2

Something there to keep an eye on. If you’d have just backed any ‘double top rated’ once…

25 bets / 9 wins / 19 places / +10.25 

If you just focused on double top rated when there was an H1 present (so, a non speed rating + a speed rating, a H plus a G1 or I1) : 31 bets / 11 wins / 18 places / +9

We are dealing with small numbers obviously but again, because they are based on ratings pointers, they should give us confidence that they may keep repeating over time. You should be able to have a lot of confidence in those qualifiers… it is clear that the bigger priced ones make the difference.. Old Guard was 15/2 and the biggest to date.

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S1 / S5 qualifiers that had other ratings pointers alongside

Strategy 1 (G1/G3, ’10/1′ +)

a) Plus a H1 / H3 : 1/6,3p, +5

b) Plus a I1 / I3 : 1/12,4p, +14  (25/1 winner)

 

Strategy 5 (I1/I3, ’10/1’+)

c) Plus a H1/H3 : 0/6,2p, -6

d) Plus a G1/G3 (covered above) : 1/12,4p, +14  (25/1 winner)

 

Option A above… from Jan-end April.. they were 3/12, +29 … (Geegeez speed has not jumps ratings over summer)… so in total any S1 qualifier that also has a H1 or H3 : 4/18, +34

I’m not sure there is too much use in that S1/S5 info as yet, but as always, everything is presented as it is and is there for you to use/absorb/interpret/ignore as you see fit!

Double Top Rated are worth noting I think, especially the likes of Old Guard who didn’t hit any advised strategies.

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Hopefully that is of some use.

Josh

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Video

7 Minute Snapshot (seriously, it is only 7 minutes!!).. I’ve taken a flick through the Lingfield card using the trainer pointers in HRB… these have served me well as starting points for the two most recent ‘through the card’ notes.. they are simply that… there is no analysis here… 7 minutes that you can watch with a notepad that highlights some horses you may wish to take a closer look at, simply based on the trainer stats. You may also want to take note of the ‘today’s jockey’ stats to the right hand side that I didn’t really focus on…

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh
    PU///LTO
    Recently someone put up a list of trainers to follow for the above.
    I notice you have posted an article re David Pipes PU horses to follow NTO.

    There are to from the list posted recently
    150S Skipthecuddles G McPherson (a josh pick to boot)
    No Planning Sue Smith
    Typical 2 come along in the same race.
    Not sure if the system qualifies for the AW tracks or is it just for the jumps.
    Apologies forgot the who gave the list.

    Mike

    mickeydee 04/12/17 5:31 PM Reply


  • 150Southwell
    Skip – needs softer?
    Zero – season debut
    Tara – lost a shoe lto, needs soft?
    NN – last win CD, chance
    Lama – needs further
    Mon P – return to a flat track, chance
    No P – prefers soft
    Rolling – class drop and faster, EW
    Bobo – 3m +, good –
    Raz – not good enough
    Gan – debuts 17/18
    Red – going too quick
    Ling – hold on with easy lead? This course can suit and claimer is good. The outsider @25/1

    chrisrees 04/12/17 9:24 PM Reply


  • Crookstown Lingfield Tuesday 15:00 1.5pt win (if you have Corals or Ladbrokes I would go 1pt e/w as they are paying 3 places)-Its no secret that most veteran chases are won by 10 year old. This is even more true this year with 8 out of 10 races falling to the youngest veterans. Its also no surprise that the older gets the harder it is to get him or her race fit. The front three in the market are all having their first run of the season and the favourite is ridden by someone who could be called cavalier at best. The selection is one of 3 10yr olds in the race and only one of 2 with a recent run. (the other one Cloudy Beach has only won a couple of class 4s on heavy ground and even that was almost 2 years ago). This is not true of the selection who took apart an open class 3 chase only back in May despite blundering the last (runner up was an unexposed 6 year old who won on his next start). He is back down to only 3lbs above that winning mark. Has been run over hurdles on his last 2 runs over inadequate breaks. I am hoping this is has been the plan given they apply a first time visor to freshen him up. Jacob was on his last win and does well at the track (3/6 in handicaps in the past 2 years) and also does well in handicap chases for the trainer (5/19, 7p in the past 2 years). He won’t mind the ground and I thought he had less questions than several of the others and looked overpriced in the context of the race.
    Skipthecuddles Southwell Tuesday 13:50 1pt e/w (make sure you bag the 4 places)-Sorry Josh I may have jinxed this one for you mate but he does appear to have that bit of class. I would make more of his Neptune run considering he wasn’t disgraced and beat half the field despite being the lowest rated horse in the field. I do think he would have needed it LTO but he looks to have a brief future and has been put up by both Paul Ferguson and John Morris. Trainer is 4/12, 7p with his handicap hurdlers in the past 2 years. Interesting fact about the horse is he actually has no tongue following a training accident so he is clearly a determined sort! There is plenty of pace on here so can’t see anything getting an easy lead and he should hopefully track the pace.

    Nick Mazur 04/12/17 10:10 PM Reply


    • Bright future even LOL

      Nick Mazur 04/12/17 10:15 PM Reply


      • Yep Skip The Cuddles is buggered… Gary P has tipped him also. Ground is a niggle built into price…no idea what his preferred conditions are. But he does have a touch of star quality,at this level anyway, but about time he showed it. Def worth a play at the odds. GL.

        Josh 04/12/17 11:21 PM Reply


        • I doubt it will be much faster than what he encountered at Cheltenham tomorrow and like you said it’s built into the price and he has won on it.

          Nick Mazur 04/12/17 11:51 PM Reply


        • Haha love it Martin very wise unfortunately hindsight is a wonderful thing

          Aaron Lumsden 05/12/17 10:34 AM Reply


  • The Lingfield card video 1 using horseracebase very good as I’ve been trying to Subscribe to horseracebase for a while. They are not taking any new members at the moment.

    Warren bottomley 05/12/17 12:26 AM Reply


    • Warren he has been changing over to a new beta version of the website which we have started using today – I believe he is taking new subscriptions again.

      David Peat 05/12/17 6:53 AM Reply


      • That’s good. Been trying for a little while. Saw Josh use it in one of his video’s and a little lightbulb flickered on in my head.

        Warren bottomley 05/12/17 9:43 AM Reply


  • David probert riding for michael stout doesnt happen to often but at Wolverhampton 1:40 SUN MAIDEN they team up together. A bit short at 9/4 but might be worth a coup!e of quid.

    Warren bottomley 05/12/17 12:47 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I am guessing you are going to Aintree on Saturday? I am travelling through from Preston, I know there’s a few days to go, but any chance of a video or written thoughts on the card? Many thanks, Harry
    Still enjoying the blog, trying to get my head around which strategy to use!

    Harry Sandells 05/12/17 9:12 AM Reply


    • Hi Harry, i’ll be there! And this time as an owner hopefully… the plan is to run Really Super in the listed juvenile hurdle…a dream come true… a fun day out really,provided she comes back safe and well… if she ran up to her ability she’d have a chance of placing, but we shall see!

      But yep, i’ll dedicate a fair chunk to that card and see how we do. I can have very mixed results there… but the Becher is one of my favourite races of the year, and i’ve managed to pluck out 33/1 + 25/1 winners on here in recent years, so here’s hoping!

      Josh

      p.s strategies… well… i’d definitely start with S4… all the evidence, from flat + jumps, suggests thats solid…the win SR is decent, as is the place SR, so a run for your money most of the time…and in theory it should just keep ticking along. It also isn’t too many bets so a good strategy to feel your way in. I’d go S1 next, a bit more volatile, but that should just keep ticking along in time. You could throw in any ‘double top rated’ so two of H1/I1/G1 … not many bets but could accompany S4 well…. S2 is very volatile as we have seen… it will have a winning run soon I suspect. As with everything you can see the win% / approach etc, so hopefully can plot a route forward. Any strategy based on the ratings pointers (red symbols) should naturally give you more confidence..because they are horse based ratings to augment my trainer stats selections, and they are a constant. If you’re patient and want to find a profitable way forward with the content on here, you will. 🙂

      Josh 05/12/17 10:37 AM Reply


  • hi josh
    just like to say how much I have enjoyed being a member of this site for quite a while now, but regretfully will have to cancel my subscription , for the time being at any rate.
    after turning £700 into £29000 in about 18 months, then giving my wife £10000 as a xmas present last year, which on reflection was about £9950 too much! things have gone downhill. 2 weeks ago my betting pot was down to about £30! after 2 weeks like the good old days is now £100 using mostly 50p bets. I am though quite confident that can reach those dizzy heights again within a couple of years, due to a couple of new online tipsters and a new system that starting with £100 in 2015 and staking 2% bank on all bets has recently got to £600,000! after just 335 bets. as I say, hope to be back as a member again next year, merry xmas and happy new year to you and all members

    pendrem 05/12/17 9:50 AM Reply


    • Good luck sir. What did your wife buy for £10K?

      Bankroll management, peaks and troughs etc. I keep two sets of records, one true and one for Wife scrutiny. Always like to dumb down performance when going well. There are some good articles on bankroll management online and I think that Josh has shared them before? I aim this at everyone and its not personal in this case.

      martin colwell 05/12/17 10:30 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm,

      Thanks for your message and sorry to lose you. I’m sat here mouth open, that’s the most dispiriting comment i’ve ever read on this blog.

      I think you’ve been here over a year..?.. and well, when long standing members go (which thankfully is rare, you are the first person to leave in an age who has been here at least 6 months+) , esp when they have enjoyed the content and on every front it has been profitable, however you slice and dice in the long term, it hurts… because clearly i’m left bewildered (in context you’ve near enough been here forever) as to how it’s come to this…and what more I could/should have done.

      I have to be honest… that is one of the most concerning/depressing messages I have ever read in the comments on this blog.

      You appear to have gone on a losing run whereby you have lost 19k ?? I don’t have any words for that.

      I assume that isn’t from any systematic approach to any of the content on here?? Or even the ‘tipping’ content?

      Not to reduce it to the blunt instrument that is your subscription… but you’ve gone from being 29k in profit, (in part from some of the content on here??) to no longer able/willing to stay for £10 per month or so…and now hunting for other services to try… (you should join SP2A if you want a tipster, you won’t find better, a new 3 month offer will be soon…:) )

      If you want a system i’d just back S4 (treble rated) and that will get it all back over time! 🙂 Well, in theory, but IF that keeps repeating and you find a better systematic approach out there to backing horses please do let me know. (25%+ Sr, ROI etc)

      That’s a depressing start to the day Malc, there is no way I can wrap that up any other way- in the context of what we do here, the drum I try to keep banging (long term, patience, discipline, building up slowly etc) and with the perspective of there being many more important things in life, that is just bewildering. Sorry.

      And it now sounds like you are going to chase? And find the next pot of gold at the end of the rainbow..to get to +29k you must have been doing something right, and whatever it was, surely the same approach hasn’t led you to then losing 19k of that? That new system you talk about.. surely that is getting to a staking amount that a) is uncomfortable b) is so much you would actually never get a bet placed. All these staking systems look good on paper, the reality is often brutal.

      Maybe best i leave that there and will happily talk over email.

      And I apologise in advance if you find any of that reply not to your liking, but i couldn’t read that, and know that everyone else will read it, and not say what I think. Blunt honesty is one of my better qualities, that’s what I think, so I have said it.

      None of that comment is in the context of me not getting my £10 pm etc, i couldn’t care less in the grand scheme of things. I just find your experience, as per your comment, depressing, and somehow feel responsible/left scratching my head over what I could have done better. Or how any punter goes from +19k to nothing.

      Good luck moving forward and I hope you can return one day,
      all the best,
      Josh

      Josh 05/12/17 11:18 AM Reply


      • (p.s aware that is a bit blunt in places, sorry, but i’ve written it now 🙂 )

        Josh 05/12/17 11:44 AM Reply


  • hi martin
    my wife has been going abroad on holiday every 2 or 3 months since!

    pendrem 05/12/17 10:35 AM Reply


    • OK, looks like that is over for a while. Good luck anyway and hope you continue to join in and share with us all on the free blog. We may help you win the money back? I was not always a full time punter and lost my share of money punting over the years until I came up with a model that worked (for now). We never stop learning.

      Another tricky day today and no real bets from me today at present. At a price Caribbean Spring, 3.40 WOL, may go well each way circa 10/1?

      martin colwell 05/12/17 11:01 AM Reply


  • hi josh

    thanks for your reply, I was not meaning to imply that had lost 19k, probably about half of that, have bought lot of fishing equipment with it ,had about 6 weekly holidays @ my hometown chester, when racing on, staying @ hotels. not the fault of this site, thats for sure! dont think put more than £2 on from here, hoping last 2 very good weeks have had, is a sign of things to come, and can start increasing my pot significantly in new year

    regards

    pendrem 05/12/17 1:25 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’m for Exeter races on Friday if you’d care to take a look, I’ll post anything I like myself up as well.

    Chris Mcilfatrick 05/12/17 1:30 PM Reply


    • I do like Exeter, that won’t be a problem! Will see what i can do.
      Josh

      Josh 05/12/17 1:49 PM Reply


  • I wish he had of left the name of the magical tipping services he found with the ROI he said he was getting to 50 pence bets it seems most of the new services supply 8-10 bets a day and no write ups from most a service I gave a try has rebranded and at present is sending me his selections and tbh I wouldn’t be in any hurry to subscribe but the price should be interesting
    Aaron

    Aaron Lumsden 05/12/17 1:33 PM Reply


  • Josh and Pendrem
    First Pendrem go to a gamblers clinic and talk it over do not contemplate tipsters,this is none of my business but from the tone of your email on reflection was about £9950 to much! to sounds like a marital issue,please as Josh said do not chase your losses.
    Josh in your reply to Pendrem you covered it very well so please do not think that you have done any thing wrong you certainly have not,running a honest tipping website you will always doubt yourself after hearing Pendrem’s case and this can cloud your judgement in the future.
    I do not know if Pendrem will see this but i hope that he does and he can curse me call me any names that he wants but he must go to a gamblers clinic.
    Pendrem take care of yourself and all the best for the future.
    Colin

    colin leafe 05/12/17 2:03 PM Reply


    • Well i don’t think we need to go into personal lives but I think everything has been said that needs to and as yet I’ve never had a proper heated argument on these pages since 2013 and don’t wish to start now.
      It did seem a bit volatile and that did concern me on numerous fronts, but it is none of my business..albeit by posting such a comment on here I felt part of it became my business.
      Anyway, let’s draw a line under that one and move on.
      Josh

      Josh 05/12/17 2:13 PM Reply


  • Pendrem bloody hell just seen your reply to Josh after spending all day thinking of your plight decided to put my penny worth up then after putting it up saw your reply,any way call me curse me what ever from your first email it is a warning to us all.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 05/12/17 2:12 PM Reply


  • hi Aaron
    most of my profit has been from RODS RUNNERS @ betting gods, all bets are 1 point win or 1ew. has won +610 points since 27 may, last month was over + 200, 214 i think? last 4 days has been + 124. has given CAP HORNER today, that has won @ 25 to 1. from 10 bets. can be lot of bets daily, up to about 20 sometimes, but gives really big priced winners, not over expensive neither. gave BEER GOGGLES saturday, got 50 to 1 on it.well worth a go

    pendrem 05/12/17 2:46 PM Reply


  • hi Colin
    thanks for advice, but am ok as am, the £9950 too much was meant as a joke really.

    pendrem 05/12/17 2:51 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh for your detailed analysis/results of the S#1/5 qualifiers with an additional pointer. I was the guy who had asked you about this a few weeks back. As I had expected it is a profitable angle.

    Pendrem’s going to have to start again! And I sincerely hope his tale of unravelling does not deter any member. However, for the benefit of newer members getting the hang of RTP’s amazing service I suggest they take a good look at the results your ‘inaugural’ flat season for members have shown. Not one losing system within the many systems you’ve inaugurated. For the doubters or uncertains I suggest taking a look at Race Advisor or Racing Index proofing tables to see how phenomenal this. This year’s RTP flat S#4 has given a return of +39.5 points on 130 bets. This was to early/bog prices and I suspect BSP return is higher as is the case with 2017 jumps returns. Flat S#6 has returned +83 points early/bog on 173 bets.

    Jumps-wise 2017 returns since start of year to Nov 26th are
    S#1 +103 points points early/bog (+130BS) on 120 bets
    S#4 +26.3 points early/bog on 43 bets since Aug 31st and
    S#5 +37 points early/bog (+54.75BSP) on 105 bets.

    I know the above is merely a repetition of what is already here on the site but as there have been a couple of ‘Oh it’s not working’ type posts recently I feel it is important I write this.

    And then add as you wish the Members’ ‘Notes’ horses, big race/meetings short lists and the multitude of micro systems such as the NTD one which returned +15 on one point level stakes for Oct/Nov and this site must be the nearest thing to the last open gold bed in the world. And to think all the panning for the gold has already been done by Josh. Just need to sift through the nuggets for whatever size you’re after! Thanks Josh for your brilliant work.

    Patrick 05/12/17 3:32 PM Reply


    • Hi Patrick,

      Thanks for your comment, that is very kind of you. I do like how you’ve described sifting through the nuggets, safe to say I think you ‘get it’ !

      History of live results to date, across the numerous strategies/approaches/content would suggest that if you want to make a long term profit from racing you can do so on these here pages. And I try and make it an engaging and entertaining journey!

      You just have to have the patience and application to want to make it work and to plot that path. I try to provide everything I can to make that journey as seamless as possible. Of course, even then, it may not pull at the right emotional strings and the approach may not be for you, which is fine.

      Any approach based on ratings pointers in particular, esp say S4, should give confidence moving forward. Unless they change methodology they should, touch wood, keep repeating over time- and that mix of trainer based stats+ complex horse based ratings is unique I think.

      I view myself in part as a member of my own members’ club… and firmly believe if I can’t succeed with the approaches on here/the mix of methods, then I’ll never make racing pay.

      On we go, thanks again,
      Josh

      Josh 05/12/17 5:01 PM Reply


  • Hmmmm

    Looking at the comments we have all come to an agreement that Josh’s comments are fair and from the heart, I take things to heart when I hit a bad streak and worry that people are following me to offset this I usually run three banks the first is generally 100 times my stake (£x) the second is 1/2 my stake as a reserve, the third is 1/2 my stake then topped up from my 1st bank by dividing any winnings after my bank doubles by 3 1 for me 1 for my bank and one for the 3rd bank this works for me I am sure there are many different scenarios used but I just thought id share mine

    one thing to remember is there are opportunities to bet everyday but betting opportunities are much harder to find be selective and winners will follow specialise 3m chases or 5f sprints are places where patterns emerge look for these use advice from people like Josh ,David ,Martin Nick and Geroid to form your own opinions but manage you banks and you will enjoy your betting

    Brian

    welshman 05/12/17 6:34 PM Reply


  • People will always come and go with any service but there’s a couple of things about the messages earlier today that leave a bad taste in the mouth.

    Firstly, if you’re leaving why not privately contact Josh if you feel the need to. Secondly, why make such headline grabbing statements about making massive profits and subsequently equally massive losses if they have nothing to do with the service Josh provides? Josh puts his heart and soul into this place, providing a huge amount of content at a very reasonable price, and that’s before we mention the season after season profit that comes our way. Where else can you ask someone (for no extra cost and usually with very little notice) to go through the card for you if you’re heading to the races?

    I’ll stop before I start ranting too much but the gist of what I’m saying is if anyone is thinking about leaving then do it privately. Those of us that have been here a while know the value of the place and appreciate the effort that must go into it. Think about the implications that negative posts (and particularly fake news) can have on members in trial periods etc and the knock on effect that can have when this service is someone’s livelihood. Stick to the advice that Josh repeats all the time, only stake amounts that will see you through the dips because long term we ride out the lows and make good profits season after season in the company of a really good bunch of people. Rant over!

    jamiem 05/12/17 6:34 PM Reply


    • Thanks Jamie,
      Yep I don’t think Malc did that deliberately or thought about such consequences but I really didn’t want others thinking he had lost X from spending any time on here!! 🙂
      Your kind words are much appreciated, i’ll keep doing what I do, knowing there is always room for improvement. You can make decent long term profits in these parts if you want to, and with any luck have some fun along the way. On we go.
      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh 05/12/17 7:11 PM Reply


  • I was going to comment after seeing the comments today, and to be honest I was a bit pissed off but after reading Jamie’s comment I’ve come to the conclusion I couldn’t have put it any better myself so I’ll leave it there.

    As always thanks for the hard work you put into this site Josh and to the many members that regularly comment with tips, advice etc same goes to you guys. Top work.

    Matt

    Matt M 05/12/17 7:09 PM Reply


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