Members Daily Post: 04/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Plumpton

3.10 – Be Daring (m1) H3 10/3  UP 5/2 

 

Fakenham

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 26th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (28/151, +117) (1 point win bets)

None today…

I can’t work out what to do with Be Daring so will leave him… torturing myself over whether 10/3 is worth a stab or not, whether he is a shade bigger than he should be. It is  weak race, he is unexposed, third run in a handicap, third after a break (could be spot on now) and they drop him in trip (so doing something different as the reason for an improved run)… I have watched his last race again and don’t know what to think, he didn’t really do much but it was an ok run but something is niggling at me that maybe he just doesn’t find a great deal for pressure…there is little pace on paper in this and it’s there to be won from the front, so it will be interesting if Tom Cannon is more aggressive on him. He does hit a few of the two year stats below also.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP 2 Year Stats

3.10 Plump – Be Daring (hncp hurdle + m1 + m1) ES H3 10/3 UP 5/2 

 

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

11.50 – Luv U Whatever (4yo+) H3 I3 13/2  2nd 

1.50 – Call Out Loud (m2) ES+H1 I3 5/1 S2 S3 UP

2.50 –

Big Amigo (4yo+, +m1) ES I1 18/1 S3 S6 UP

Royal Holiday (4yo+) 20/1 UP

Bold Spirit (m1 + m1) H1 I3 G1  2/1 S1 S2 S4 WON 2/1>7/4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 4/28,13p, -3 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 3/21,9p, -5
  • S1 (0/3,1p, -3) S2 (0/11,2p, -11) S3 (0/4,2p, -4) S3A (1/2,1p, +7) S4 (3/5,5p, +11) S5 (0/3,2p, -3)

 

NOTES: 1/7, +0.5 

Thoughts… a ‘stemming of the blood’ week if backing everything multiple times/just the once. S2 is still bleeding but I have no concerns on that front…it will turn around at some point.  To my subjective eyes many have looked up against it on paper in recent weeks and I haven’t been near to ‘tipping’ many of them. I’m not surprised plenty have been falling out the back of the tv.  But, they will throw up a few 25/1 winners soon enough that make little sense on paper. That is the point if backing S2 systematically. S3 is still concerning me a tad, S3A is looking better. It does feel like there may be an explosion of profit soon enough, across the board, although i’ve always been an optimist…

Strategy 4 (treble rated) goes from strength to strength, now… 21/48,33 places, +37.3 … I keep thinking it will level down soon enough but it’s just had it’s best week and shows no sign of stopping… the placed horses give the confidence as not many qualifiers run bad races. The Flat ‘treble rated’ levelled off to a 30% win sr after 130 bets, so we shall see. All treble rated, Flat + Jumps, are sitting on +76 points, from 178 bets, not bad going.

178 bets / 60 wins / 99 places / 33% sr / 55% win|place / +76 points (1 point win bets) (or +760 to £10 bets, or +£380 to £5 bets… that’s the subs paid for and plenty left over, cough cough 🙂 ) …

…unless the three ratings sets I use change methodology, I am struggling to see why they won’t just keep ticking along, and S4 clearly finds over-priced horses, even near the top end of the market. That may level down to a 25% win SR but the profit will keep ticking along… as yet they haven’t had a losing run of note that I can remember..even a 30% win SR will have losing runs of 19 or so every now and then. Anyway, I hope those figures give you some confidence… if you just wanted one systematic strategy to follow, that may be the one for you. It has the best winning SR of any so far, which of course means the losing runs will be less severe, and half the time you get a run for your money. It is of course a more focused approach with fewer qualifiers, so maybe less stress. Always options. Any forecast/tricast / placepot players may want to note their consistency for including qualifiers in any such bets.

On we go. I’ll pull together some November Stats.

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OF INTEREST/NOTE …

Nick has mentioned how he follows ‘double top’ rated, and one of you (i forget,  apols, but I noted the comment) enquired as to S1 / S5  that have more than one ratings pointer… so, I hope you find the following of some use… these stats are since 31st August (when Geegeez speed returned for jumps) up to end 3rd December…

Jumps

Double Top Rated (any price)

G1 + H1 : 5/12,7p, +3

G1 + I1 : 2/10,4p, -4

H1 + I1 : 6/19,11p, +6

 

Within those three combos there are ‘multiple’ qualifiers for those that were ‘treble top rated’ (which would have been picked up in Strategy 4): So, H1 I1 G1… they are… 2/8,4p, -2

Something there to keep an eye on. If you’d have just backed any ‘double top rated’ once…

25 bets / 9 wins / 19 places / +10.25 

If you just focused on double top rated when there was an H1 present (so, a non speed rating + a speed rating, a H plus a G1 or I1) : 31 bets / 11 wins / 18 places / +9

We are dealing with small numbers obviously but again, because they are based on ratings pointers, they should give us confidence that they may keep repeating over time. You should be able to have a lot of confidence in those qualifiers… it is clear that the bigger priced ones make the difference.. Old Guard was 15/2 and the biggest to date.

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S1 / S5 qualifiers that had other ratings pointers alongside

Strategy 1 (G1/G3, ’10/1′ +)

a) Plus a H1 / H3 : 1/6,3p, +5

b) Plus a I1 / I3 : 1/12,4p, +14  (25/1 winner)

 

Strategy 5 (I1/I3, ’10/1’+)

c) Plus a H1/H3 : 0/6,2p, -6

d) Plus a G1/G3 (covered above) : 1/12,4p, +14  (25/1 winner)

 

Option A above… from Jan-end April.. they were 3/12, +29 … (Geegeez speed has not jumps ratings over summer)… so in total any S1 qualifier that also has a H1 or H3 : 4/18, +34

I’m not sure there is too much use in that S1/S5 info as yet, but as always, everything is presented as it is and is there for you to use/absorb/interpret/ignore as you see fit!

Double Top Rated are worth noting I think, especially the likes of Old Guard who didn’t hit any advised strategies.

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Hopefully that is of some use.

Josh

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • Nice to get a double priced winner on Saturday even if it was from my least fancied pick but at least in ensured a small profit. It was a heavy night last night so no write up but I like one for tomorrow:
    Carnspindle Plumpton Monday 13:40 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 03/12/17 9:32 PM Reply


    • I’ll take the place money particularly given the drifted a bit but really kicking myself for not finding Cody Wyoming in the 13:30 considering he had absolutely prime conditions and all I had to do is look at David’s 2nd update (convinced myself he was best fresh). Chalking that one down to alcohol and laziness!

      Nick Mazur 04/12/17 2:33 PM Reply


      • ha, i’ve used those two demons as the odd excuse every now and then.. they are often linked haha…
        Ah, that is just the nature of the beast I think Nick… we will miss things.. I like the ‘menu of options’ approach- but there is plenty of info flying around this blog from all parts- things will get missed etc- impossible to stay on top of everything, well I don’t have the mental capacity… just part of the game… safe to say you find enough to do just fine so I wouldn’t beat yourself up too much.
        Josh

        Josh 04/12/17 2:41 PM Reply


        • Yeah just feel I am not at the top of my game and I am a little too competitive for my own good at times. Been backing the wrong ones and dismissing the right ones a little too often recently for my liking. Wasn’t a million miles away from the winner of the 14:40 just now even if he was slightly fortunate.

          Nick Mazur 04/12/17 2:51 PM Reply


  • hi Josh, I tend to dip in and out on the strategies on the whole, but i cant help noticing what a bad run S2 has had recently. I got the 10/1 on Cowslip the night before, in part thinking it would be S2, so in a way that has eased the pain. i see you recorded at 8/1 so didnt qualify, very honest of you, and btw one of the main reasons i like this site.
    Am i right in thinking that S2 is on a losing run of 55?. For me, there have been some heartbreaking 2nds, Goodgirlteresa, paper roses, smooth stepper, Misterton, i am considering now betting them systematically as now might be a good place to start, but i struggle to get money on at morning prices I am in no way having a go here, i have had a great run on S4 recently, and i like the thought processes on here so keep up the good work, cheers

    jamesm 04/12/17 11:02 AM Reply


    • Hi James,
      Firstly anyone is welcome to ‘have a go’ , as long as it’s with a smile/polite, everything is transparent here, results are the results, and there are always things I could be doing better/haven’t thought of/have missed etc.
      I didn’t read that as you ‘having a go’

      I will check S2 but that sounds about right… I have tried to warn people esp in the ‘notes’ under S2 in the Advised Strategy link.. they have had a 10% win SR so far, from what looks a hefty enough sample esp considering it isn’t based on ratings pointers..so the only way you can have any confidence is on past results repeating. A 10% sr means there will be hefty losing runs, inc around 66 every now and then.

      There are two tipsters, who I won’t name now, who operate in the 8-10% win sr arena.. long term profits superb… i need to check but I think in 2017 one of them had two losing runs, of 173 and 120 odd… the other started off the year with a -75 month, and just had a -60 odd November I think.

      The exaggerated point is that it is what it is with that win %… and S2, from some point in summer, up until when this run started, was operating around 16-20% win sr I think… it has quite simply been a natural correction… which if my stats are any good this season, will turn around at some point. In an ideal world the 2017 S2 profit would be spread out evenly every month…sadly it isn’t!

      There have been some agonising second places which clearly would have made a big difference, but that’s racing. Your logic for starting to back them now may be wise… the end/midst of a bad run is often a good time to start as it will (hopefully) turn around soon. Long term it is fine, but again that is why there is a choice of options… there should be more confidence in any ratings pointers based strategy because they are a constant really.

      I should add… that losing run isn’t a shock based on how my eyes look at the horses… I look at every qualifier to see if I want to ‘tip’ them, and so so many of the S2 qualifiers have looked up against it on paper- it isn’t as though there have been plenty to my eyes that should have been going much closer and haven’t.

      S2 is the ultimate test of succeeding long term, on having a right bank, and the mental test. I’m confident it will turn around but nothing as yet is a surprise. If that runs starts going north of 60-80 then i’ll reconsider that view. But it might. And then 3 winners will come along, 25s, 25s>40/1, 18/1. There is a reason only 3% of people win long term betting on horses, and that’s because the majority cannot handle/not prepared for, losing runs..whatever approach they take/whoever they follow. And we have all been on that journey, diving in, following an approach, bottling it when a losing run comes, and abandoning right before a tranche of winners. If the shit really hits the fan you have to be prepared to lose your starting bank with the amount you are betting – if you are not then you will scarper at the first sign of a losing run, whether that is 20, or 55, or 80. I’d like to think there is an approach on here for all betting personality types, from shorter losing runs to painful ones 🙂 and everyone has a different tolerance to such things which is fair enough. You just have to put the time in, and have patience, to find what works for you. As there is plenty of profit to be mined on these pages, successfully, over time. I’m sounding like a broken record now…

      Annoying some of the other strategies, namely S1, S3, S5 have hit a wobble at the same time, which makes any S2 run a lot worse if you back plenty of them systematically. But in terms of the losing runs per strategy, based on the win% srs, nothing is out of the ordinary.

      Cowslip.. well I declare on widely available morning prices/Bog…as that is the fairest way to do it… declaring at an evening price that not all can get isn’t on, esp when you are charging for something – 10s was widely available on him the evening before, and those who bet then, may have got stuck in as at that time he hit many strategies, and even at 8s hit two strategies…so with any luck he was covered for systematic backers.

      In terms of what you can get on when…again that is the importance of keeping your own results… esp if your only option is to take a price on the machine, or use BFSP… only then I suppose can you judge if you can still get value prices that ensure a profit you are happy with over time.

      I have no idea what members regard as success.. I suppose I’d like to think that over a calendar year if you made +100-200 points to £5 bets across the board, that would be decent, as a benchmark… and then with all the other content to add interest/something to read/make you think/add to your experience. But, I suppose success will mean different things to different people.

      i’m not going anywhere, i’ll keep chipping away.
      Josh

      Josh 04/12/17 11:33 AM Reply


  • Free one 3.10 plumpton
    Thought 9/1 was about fair. Second time in a handicap, moving into a 0-100 after being dropped 5lbs. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was just out for a run last time. Lizzie Kelly back in the saddle interests me. One of the worst races of the day, that’s for sure.

    Dom J 04/12/17 11:25 AM Reply


    • GL Dom, yep I can see the appeal if you wish to play in that race.. I did have a look at him when mulling over Be Daring.. suspect just couldn’t handle C3 LTO… and this is quite a drop.. has had a few breaks and another of 59 days..but the trainer can ready them and any concerns on that front built into the price. I can see the case in what is a shocker of a race. Fav been well punted which is no surprise. Be Daring may drift to 5s and bolt up!

      Josh 04/12/17 11:49 AM Reply


      • Gd luck with be daring, can see the appeal!
        Tom Lacey still seems to be going well, nice drift on jester jet which absolutely hacked up!!

        Dom J 04/12/17 1:59 PM Reply


        • Well I haven’t backed him as yet, torturing myself over his price, and seems some money around for him again, were he to hit 9/2 I may have a dart, didn’t think 10/3 overly generous…but my judgement at that end is questionable, I don’t think I get enough right to make it worthwhile, hence the general obsession with 6/1+ with notes horses, the odd one shorter. We shall see how he goes. No doubt another clanger in price judgement from me!!

          Josh 04/12/17 2:31 PM Reply


  • Hi,

    I’ve just seen Tom Lacey had another winner. Have we missed that one?
    Cheers.

    Matt M 04/12/17 2:20 PM Reply


    • Nope,… didn’t hit my micro system rules… he is just a trainer in very good form at the moment so most of his are worth a second look. There will be a systematic reason/research, for why that type isn’t included in the rules etc, based on his training career to date anyway.
      Josh

      Josh 04/12/17 2:25 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh.

        Matt M 04/12/17 2:49 PM Reply


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