Members Daily Post: 01/12/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Doncaster

12.30 – No Ceiling (all hncps) G3 3/1  WON 3/1>13/8 

2.35 –

Predict A Riot (all hncps) 12/1 S2 UP

Nemean Lion (hncp hurdle) 22/1 S2 UP

Big Penny (m1) 15/2 2nd 9/1

 

Newbury

2.25 – Ridgeway Flyer (hncp chase + m1) 14 H3 6/1 UP

3.35 – Hello George (m1 + m2) H3 I1 G3 6/1 S4  3rd 9/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 26th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/146, +114.5) (1 point win bets)

NONE… I’ve been staring at that 2.35 for longer than I probably should and the fact I am struggling to make a decision, tipping wise, would indicate I should leave it… they all have a few too many questions to my subjective eyes, even if they do all retain something of the ‘could be anythings’ about them, and the total lack of ratings pointers influenced me a tad… we’ll see how they go, we are due a welcome ‘surprise’ from a biggie or five soon.

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That’s it for today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Note: This is a test and remember I am using the ‘Flat Advised’ strategies to inform the ‘S’ symbols next to the qualifiers. I would not be backing any of these systematically as yet but if you like betting one ‘the sand’ they may provide you with some starting points. 

 

Southwell

12.10 – Luv U Whatever (4yo+) H1 I3 13/8 S2

12.40 – Bold Spirit (m1) G1 4/1

2.10 – Shearian (m1) 4/1

2.45 – Viva Verglas  (4yo+, + m1) ES I3 4/1 S3

 

Dundalk

7.30 – Park Row (m2) 14/1

8.30 – Masalai (3yo+) H1 5/2

9.00 – Asian Wing (m1) 7/1

 

Chelmsford

5.45 – Welliesinthewater (m1) ES+I1 12/1  S3A S6

8.15 –

Sam Harry (all hncps) 5/2

Glendun (m1 + m1) H1  10/1 S6 

Hammer Gun (m1) ES+I3  20/1 S3A 

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Irish Angles

1.15 Lim – One First Cut (25/1<, 16/1< best) Fell

D McCain 

12.30 Donc – Ink Master (14/1< guide)

Paddy Watch

3.00 Newb – Colin’s Sister (m1, 14/1<) UP

3.35 Newb – I Shot The Sheriff (m1, 14/1<) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Well, I’m quite pleased to see the back of November! Hopefully some of you may have backed a winner or two from the ‘through the card’ notes from Lingfield and Towcester.. winners at 6/1, 13/2, 6/4, 5/1, 7/2, 10/1 across both, plus a few losers of course. And if nothing else I hope Jonno and Kevin backed a winner or two! 🙂

I’m rather hoping it’s a case of a good month follows a bad one in section 1…that felt like the case last Nov-April, a shocker followed by a good month, that’s how it goes. I will do a results re-cap early next week. Nothing is alarming me as, well, it’s all in the maths. Certain win % mean certain losing runs etc.  That’s applicable across the strategies and my own ‘tipping’, which in relation to the ‘notes’ is on a bit of a losing run…but it was at a 100% ROI which was just silly and I was at a win% I have yet to successfully maintain in my ‘tipping’ life to date. A natural correction. The game isn’t that easy sadly and I’m not that good. The only way to win long term is to have a plan, trust in it, and stick with it. I am going to record a video next week I think, discussing ‘losers’ and losing runs (and using some others as examples, Dr Nick Hardman, Gary Priestley) because whether it is what I do, or if you follow another approach, those that are successful in the long run experience these peaks and troughs. They are an inevitable part of successful value betting. And value betting (backing horses at bigger prices than they should be) is the only way to win at betting long term. The only way. That is what Rafa Benitez would call a ‘fact’. (putting that into practice is the hard part!)

Still, my free post tips, the members’ ‘notes’ and the advised strategies have creamed around +900 points in 2017 to date (inc multiple qualifiers etc)…there is plenty of profit to be mined in these parts, but backing plenty of losers is part of that digging. Still, I bloody hope it picks up in December, esp for those of you who have joined since the start of September/late summer, many of whom have seen enough already it seems.  It’s a new month and on we go, dreaming of glory.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

38 Comments

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  • It’s no consolation, but Early Odds had a bad month too, rarely does, -28 points.

    lately 30/11/17 8:22 PM Reply


    • Be very careful with Tipsters stats re profit or loss. I have taken exception with one or two via email re November published figures which, based upon my records, are not a true reflection of their actual performance. I am not going to name them because here is not the place for that. The only way you can know what their performance is like is to actually track them. There are a number of tipsters where it is talked that they are successful when they are not, some high profile names.

      martin colwell 01/12/17 9:37 AM Reply


  • Just wondering on peoples thoughts about Exchanges v BOG bookies, for me it’s entirely subjective. I see BOG bookies probably returning higher profits in the long run, but then there’s the hassle of monitoring several (or lots) of accounts and the hassle of avoiding being restricted or even closed. On the other hand there’s the one stop exchanges with zero chance of being restricted or closed with all your betting in one place, saving vast amounts of time and effort over time. Both beat SP to a fair degree, so without me comparing BSP to BOG is the difference that much and is it worth the extra time and effort?

    Chris 30/11/17 9:24 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris,
      I only used bog last season and it can be a hassle sometimes. There are occasions when it takes me longer to place the bets than it does finding the qualifiers. The obvious benefit of early bog is more winners (S2 qualifiers) than bfsp. Over 25% of winners last season shortened to well below 10/1. However, one winner drifted out to 50/1 and paid out substantially more @bfsp. My profit was more than 60% over sp and more than half of it came from wins that shortened to below 8/1.
      I did some figures for last season on here the other day and I finished with the thought that it may be advantageous to split banks betwixt the two. I am keeping a record and will update on here.
      Mike

      titus_a_duxass 30/11/17 11:55 PM Reply


    • It depends on how much you bet? I bet via exchanges because I cannot get much on with the few bookmakers that will take my money (BET 365, Black Type, Betway, Paddy Power) to a certain level. I like Matchbook as you can get a few hundred on racing when the market is active (Fridays and Saturdays outside the big meetings) and any amount on Football or Golf etc. Betfair is OK but they charge you a surcharge if you bet regularly at a high level. If you do not bet big I would say BOG is best with enhanced places if you like each way.

      martin colwell 01/12/17 9:43 AM Reply


      • Hi Martin, is it possible to get 30 or 40 on with matchbook on a miserable Monday ? Also, what possible charges can they hit you with after time?

        Chris 01/12/17 10:30 AM Reply


        • Yes you can. Odds best I think 15 minutes and down from the off. Matchbook have kept me at 5% commission for now. I went to their traders conference and had a chat with some of their guys about things. Betfair charge between 7 to 10% depending on volumes. Betdaq and Smarkets 6%. But it can change anytime really.

          martin colwell 01/12/17 12:55 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Sorry to be a pain but a while back I think you posted a link to a spreadsheet we could use for logging our bets. I can’t seem to find it. Any chance of a link again please if you get five mins. Thanks.

    Matt M 30/11/17 9:32 PM Reply


    • Never a pain Matt,yep I’ll dig it out tomorrow. Really should add a link to the Key or welcome post/resouree repository. Josh

      Josh 30/11/17 9:57 PM Reply


    • Here you go Matt … https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/recrod-keeping-spreadsheet/

      Josh 01/12/17 9:26 AM Reply


      • Thank Josh

        Matt M 01/12/17 10:21 AM Reply


        • (have added the link + the video into into the Welcome Info link/post in the KEY)

          Josh 01/12/17 10:34 AM Reply


  • thanks for the video Josh, always nice to come out ahead at the races

    thisisjonnoo 30/11/17 10:38 PM Reply


  • Actinpieces Newbury Friday 15:35 1pt e/w (would personally use Sky for the 4 places despite the slightly lower odds)-I appreciate there is slight concern when a horse goes back hurdling after chasing but I think her trainer has found a nice opportunity to knick a decent prize here. Josh tipped her up LTO when she was 2nd in a class 2 chase at Bangor and she certainly looked to be on the up. Runs here off 5lbs lower here and is completely unexposed over this distance over hurdles. She last ran over hurdles in a listed mares race at Cheltenham in April 2016 coming a close 2nd. Given her chasing form I’d like to think there is wiggle room off the mark. We know she is in form and we know she won’t mind the ground and trip. 10/12 winners of this race were aged 5 or 6 which takes out half the field and 12/12 finished top 5 LTO which takes out Organist. To me it looks to be between the selection and the front two in the market and at the prices and the fact that we can get 4 places I couldn’t pass this one up.
    Ueueteotl Doncaster Friday 14:35 1pt e/w-As Josh pointed out in his Week 2 notes this one was running a big race on his seasonal re-appearance. He should be considerably fitter for the run. He drops back in trip to 3m0.5f and drops into a weak class 4 (2/3 in class 4 handicap hurdles worth less than £6k). Everything Ewart is sending out right now has ran well (3 winners and 6 further 2nds or 3rds from his last 13 runners). Should be either lead or race prominently (give there is plenty of pace here the key here is he doesn’t need to lead) and looked a solid e/w bet at 10s.

    Nick Mazur 30/11/17 11:20 PM Reply


    • I think Actinpieces is out of its depth here. Small fish in a bigger pond? We shall see. I am with you on Ueueteotl and am on each way. Good luck.

      martin colwell 01/12/17 9:46 AM Reply


      • There is a chance you could be right mate but not sure if its a massive step up from listed mares races to class 2s and this doesn’t seem like top end class 2. Since I posted last night I noticed that Sly is 2/5 in horses running in a hurdle race after a chase one since 2015 and has done well in general with 6 to 8 year olds making the switch (7/32, 16p +47). On top of that her listed race 2nd was on Good ground where she is much better on Soft (4/6, 5p).

        Nick Mazur 01/12/17 10:22 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    I thought that now would be a good time to update you on how I have been progressing with following the systems as it is nearly a year since I joined. I have been following the Horse Race Base and Geegeez ratings for both jumps (including summer jumps) and flat. I started out with 2 separate banks of £500 and stakes of £5 per selection (£10 if it was dual rated). Stakes have increased as the bank has grown. I’ve decided that my maximum stake will be £15. I did include Inform when those ratings come on board, but this coincided with a poor run and I was concerned about how much I was staking so after a couple of months I ditched Inform, so just use HRB and GG.

    In terms of results I am currently up £865 on the jumps system and finished the flat season up £400 which overall represents an ROI of about 7%.Naturally there have been ups and downs and the flat bank at one point fell to £65. However I think that may experience would back up what you have been saying about staying with it for the long haul and riding out the losses. Starting with low stakes it is possible to make decent returns and whilst a 7% ROI isn’t spectacular I personally prefer steady accumulation to more high risk approaches. Anyway a Return on Capital of 126% certainly beats leaving it in the Building Society!

    Thanks for the blog Josh and keep up the good work!

    steved 30/11/17 11:50 PM Reply


    • out of interest Steve, when you say you use GG and HRB, is that top rated in each race? or horses Josh has identified on here using the 2 rating systems?

      An example of horses youve identified today would be useful for some context

      Thanks, Paul

      Paul 01/12/17 9:50 AM Reply


      • Hi Paul

        It is the G1, G3, H1, H3 highlighted in red horses. Therefore today bets are No Ceiling, Ridgeway Flyer and Hello George (double stake).

        steved 01/12/17 10:35 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve,
      Thanks for posting/sharing, I do like hearing good news and pleased you have found an approach that suits how you like to play the game. And with any luck you’ve had plenty of fun along the way. I think most pro punters would take a 7% ROI consistently over time so we can’t grumble at that.

      Is that just backing any horse with a H1-H3, G1-G3 next to their name, or in line with any of the advised strategies?

      In any case, you’re making it work and i’ve always been confident that if any member uses a proper bank and takes a long (long) term view you’ll find a profitable/enjoyable way forward. Sounds like you’ve done just that.

      Josh

      Josh 01/12/17 9:50 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Just to add that after 4 months I was £900 pounds up, but I then had 3 successive losing months and gave it all back!! It was very tempting to jack it in at that point, but was followed with 4 winning months on the trot with only a slight loss last month. All systems and tipsters will have losing runs and I’m convinced that it’s being able to handle the losses that enable you to turn a profit in the end (I’ve learnt that the hard way!). Continually chopping and changing approaches/tipsters is the route to the poor house.

        steved 01/12/17 2:53 PM Reply


  • One of joshes systems I’ve had a good return with is. Evan Williams , handicap hurdle , not ffos las , October ~ April , not beginner novice maiden nursery , last time out winner. Had a good strike rate the last couple of years + 15 points so far this year . 37 % strike rate over the years and some good priced winners .

    jamie2255 01/12/17 6:48 AM Reply


    • I’ll have to dig that one out Jamie and have a look, and throw it in next week’s ‘the week that was’ ! Glad to hear it is ticking along.
      Josh

      Josh 01/12/17 9:52 AM Reply


  • Don’t post much these days too busy doing other things.
    But the Ben Pauling December system came to mind this morning
    Pretty simple all ben’s runners in December in non-handicaps.
    Slightly inflated last year by massive price winner
    but made 13 pts without the big one so pretty steady
    good luck if you follow them
    quite a few qualifiers today if i get chance will update during the month

    Graham Ashford 01/12/17 8:28 AM Reply


  • 14.25 Newbury

    Quite a difficult puzzle this one but the one that stood out from a profiling point of view was

    OO SEVEN
    Last season he raced twice in Class 2 and below and won both times in fact his record in Class 2 and below overall reads: 1111112 whilst in Graded races it reads: 0282534.
    He does seem to go well fresh as when racing 121 days plus his record reads: 111
    His record when racing at 2m4f to 2m4.5f reads: 211 and on GTS ground: 12115.
    He does seem to like racing in the winter months as record when racing November to February reads: 111132211
    On flat or slightly undulating tracks his record reads: 11114123.
    He can carry big weights as when racing off 11-11+ record reads: 21

    His trainer has had a 23%SR the last 14 days and in November in chase races he had 7 winners from 27 runners.

    The negative would be the trainers record at this track in chase races since 2014 – 3 wins from 31 starts.

    The 7/1 on offer would seem a fait price in the context of this race.

    David Peat 01/12/17 9:31 AM Reply


  • some great basis for selections guys, particularly like the chap’s figures with the return on investment, good luck all today

    Paul Ebrey 01/12/17 9:48 AM Reply


  • On the bog v bfsp debate it really comes down to this,you can spread your bets around as much as you want but after time if your constently beating the sp then you will get restricted,some bookies are better than others I have just been restricted by poker stars with £1050 in my account where I have over 3k with bet365 and no restrictions.Always judge a tippster on bfsp and never on advised prices.There seems to be alot of new tippsters out there putting up tips at 5pm the day before racing giving a price with one bookie that lasts for all of a minute and sorry even though I have huge respect for him and he is free Gary Priestley is guilty of that

    christopher jones 01/12/17 12:35 PM Reply


    • PokerStars/BetStars are clearly doing the rounds since I just got restricted also. The problem I find is given work I need to bet the night before and there isn’t enough liquidity on Betfair at that point particularly as most of my bets are E/W.

      I agree on the tipster front. Like Gary, Nick Hardman also extremely guilty of that but in fairness they are in the majority. Any tipster with a bit of honesty will use a price available with a number of bookmakers not just one or two.

      Nick Mazur 01/12/17 12:48 PM Reply


    • Yep, that’s one of the reason’s i base the advised price strategies on widely available morning prices. If you are selling a service, then regularly advising prices which no one can get isn’t on.. of course it depends how good you are at spotting value as many will still be very profitable at prices more generally available… of course that’s one reason why you should keep your own results with prices, so that you can see yourself and judge if margins are big enough etc. Not everyone can bet at same time, and some, on here say, will get bigger prices the evening before.

      I was involved in a twitter chat yesterday about price/value, and the substance of that isn’t important here.. but one chap had a lot of betfair SP data which suggested BFSP is a very good guide, over time and thousands of bets, of being a true indicator as to the mathematical chance of the horse winning. ie BFSP 5.00, the horses do win 20% of the time over thousands of bets… which does pose the question/idea, that, over time, you do need to beating BFSP enough of the time… I think. Otherwise you are backing the horse at the price they should be, and therefore you will never win- in the very long term. I could have that wrong. And of course with 5% commission, then even more so. It will be more complex than that , but the gist is right I think. (it could be that with bigger prices, away from top end, that BFSP isn’t reflective of true chance,and therefore still an edge…no idea in truth, but clearly some can make profit to BFSP somehow, over time, which can only suggest that some prices are not reflective of their actual chance etc… I should buy a maths book/do more research!)

      Now, my free jumps tips… you’d barely make any money taking BFSP against widely available prices that are around for a few hours after I post…. which is some indication that I can spot an overpriced horse… so far so good, but time will tell. I clearly don’t posses the skill/eye to spot BFSP value, if that’s not a contradiction in terms.

      Gary P – well he doesn’t need me to defend him… his existence on twitter is a window into his own personal betting. If twitter didn’t exist he would just be doing what he does anyway, so he wants to get the best price. All his results are clear, again, if you are diligent and keep your own results etc, it should be obvious whether you can turn a profit to prices you can get. I suspect if he changed his whole routine and just looked in the morning, he would do fine… but I think it’s a large chunk of his income, I could be wrong, so he obviously wants to get the best price he can. He wouldn’t care if no one followed his tips, makes no difference to him. Well, that’s how I interpret what he does. I’d say having that window into what he does is better than no window at all. But I get where you are coming from, and whether you are charging changes things somewhat.

      Josh

      Josh 01/12/17 12:54 PM Reply


      • You don’t need to be beating BFSP any of the time really Josh… you just need to be not backing the poor value losers and getting proportionately more than your fair share of the winners.

        Tim

        Tim Hanson 01/12/17 2:05 PM Reply


    • Bet365 are excellent, you should treasure them. The Pokerstars ownership are absolute money grabbers and so not surprised re Betstars I have shared this before but Betfred sent me an email saying that whilst I was winning they would not close my account. Next time I went on the site the max bet was 44p! Merry Christmas.

      martin colwell 01/12/17 1:02 PM Reply


      • Bet 365 are excellent whilst they take your bet!!! closed my account approx 4 years ago,for me they are something what rhymes with bankers.
        Warning ref 10Bet took me over six weeks to have £1500 returned to me after closing my account and it took a lot of phone calls to achieve this.

        colin leafe 01/12/17 3:11 PM Reply


    • Gary always advises when his bets are coming out on twitter…dont see any way round prices changing..so not guilty in my eyes.

      Ronnie Nicolson 01/12/17 1:27 PM Reply


  • Beergoggles voted Bookies horse of the day! I remember backing it at 14/1 earlier in the season when it won at some midweek track. Now that is what I call improvement. Thistlecrack had a blow and got round. Hopefully he can come back again and run a good race?

    martin colwell 01/12/17 3:10 PM Reply


    • I know at least one person who tipped him somewhere, via twitter etc… He won for us at Newton Abbot, summer stats I think, 14/1.. i had a nibble on him at Aintree when I was there… didn’t think he could do that, but some of the logic stated by those who backed him made sense. I didn’t really look at race but wouldn’t have predicted he would make all either. There we go! Yep I think bookies have won there.

      That was poor from Thistlecrack, app he looked plenty big enough but he tanked through that… trainer was saying he was plenty fit enough… tendon injuries are a horror… i fear he may never come back anywhere near to what he was.. he failed to quicken there or show anything really… travelled well, but maybe injury played on his mind, who knows. Or he really needed it… he isn’t bouncing back from that run to win a King George though, surely. That is Might Bites to lose, and whether he has a wobble in his head!

      Josh 01/12/17 3:29 PM Reply


      • Bloody Beer Goggles – he was a system bet that I failed to back when he won at 14/1 and today I was on Unowhatimeanharry. The figures I posted yesterday would have been ever better had it not been for operator incompetence!

        steved 01/12/17 4:45 PM Reply


  • i wondered if the track is favouring front runners, most winners today either led or were prominent …. Coneygree?

    jamesm 01/12/17 6:15 PM Reply


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