Members’ Daily Post: 30/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Taunton

2.20 – Cabernet D’Alene (hncp hurdle) 30 H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 WON 3/1>9/4 

2.50 – Jump And Jump (m1) I3 16/1 S2 S5 3rd 8/1 

3.20 –

Soul Saver (hncp hurdle) 14,30  H1  10/3  2nd 

Love The Leader (m1) 20/1 S2 UP

 

Musselburgh

12.30 – The Wise One (hncp hurdle + m1) 30  ES H1 I3 11/4 S3 2nd 

1.00 – Ange Des Malberaux (hncp hurdle) 30 ES H1 I1 G1  11/4 S3 S4  3rd 

 

Towcester

1.10 –

Heurtevent (m1) 16/1 UP

Belmount Park (m1) 5/1 2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 26th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/145, +115.5) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.10 Towc – Belmount – 5/1 2nd, 5/1

Ah, well, that looked good until they entered the home straight where sadly for me the headgear change has worked for the winner, no problem taking him on, or being with mine. That is the straightest the winner has ever jumped I think, maybe a slight lack of race fitness costing him there. Belmount jumped superbly and he won’t have any problem making all in a weak chase at some point soon, i’d be interested in his next run, price allowing. 

I’ve convinced myself that in the context of this race 5/1 is fair enough and I am not quiet sure why he is a bigger price than the Dickin horse. This one is unexposed over fences and doing a few things differently… he drops in trip, drops in class, and Tom C takes over…also runs at a different track. I have watched his last race and his run here in a beginners chase and I actually think he is a nice jumper of a fence – that UR LTO…he took off too early, jumped the fence big, and landed steeply. It was the sort of error novices make, a bit like Yanworth’s …albeit he is no Yanworth! In this class, against this mob, he may find he has more time to measure his fences…that mistake was when rattling down hill at Plumpton, a tricky fence. They will race him prominently I think and he has as many questions to answer as everything else i this. I am quite happy taking on the fav and I would struggle to ‘tip’ anything else in this. Maybe he will need the run but DB can ready them after a break anyway, so departing early LTO may have no impact on fitness, we shall see. He ticks similar boxes to that McCain winner that I dodged at 7s, hopefully this one can win. Don’t let my focus on him put you off the other one if you are a systematic S2 backer..i would be surprised if he won given recent form, but not in total shock… he will bounce back around here one day.

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Of the rest… well, I don’t like being negative… a test for my head vs strategies if I am being honest… I thought on paper the biggies looked up against it and the rest looked too short against their chance/questions.  So, time will tell on that front. With any luck I have misjudged one or two there, with my subjective eyes. I will just mention Justice Knight in the 3.20….  only because when looking through the race i noted that there is every chance he gets an easy lead here… ground a slight unknown but they must think it is safe. Do with that pace information as you please.

 

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Towcester Video ‘Preview

 

Those that looked interesting to me, at a glance, and maybe worth a closer look… (these are NOT tips, pointers, if you are going racing..)

12.40 – Linehall 2nd 

1.10 – the two stats picks above, in what is a shocker of a race 2nd UP 

1.40 – Bastien WON 5/1  / Now McGinty UP

2.10 – urgh…I struggled through this… Oi Oi and Kikimoru at prices, small track side stabs UP UP 

2.40 – Biscuit UP / Luck of Legion UP / The Crazed Moon 2nd

3.10 – one of top 3 should win this…all got questions, on price, Ben Pauling’s WON 7/2  – not a race to go mad on! Maybe time for another beer come this race…

3.40 – Involve UP / Thistledonicely WON 10/1>17/2 

 

A few yards are ‘in form’ (Geegeez pointers) here and most of their runners worth a second glance, the likes of Kim Bailey, S Edmunds, O Greenhall and H Oliver. (cue Hobbs/King/Pipe/Twister winning everything! 🙂 )

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds)

12.50 Taunt- Snapdragon Fire 2nd 25/1>10/1

2.40 Towc – Luck of The Legion UP

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.00 Muss – Prince Khurram (m3) UP

 

TTP All-Weather

Newcastle – None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

David Peat Updates 6+7: READ HERE>>>

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TTP All-Weather ReportHERE>>>

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Marjus Quest Taunton Thursday 15:20 1pt e/w-looked a solid enough bet. Has been running consistently including a 2nd to a subsequent winner in a class 4 back in August when Bowen was last on board. Is best when returning within 20 days (4/17,9p) including 13P23 during his last 5 handicap hurdles runs when returning from such a break (153 when returning within 7 days). Has a 1st and a 3rd from 2 runs at the track. Should be able to lead or race prominently and at 11s with 4 places I thought he was solid.

    I have also chucked £5e/w on Bosham in the 19:45 e/w at a massive price given he has been dropped to a very low mark and is one of the few pace angles here even if he hasn’t showed much form recently.

    Nick Mazur 29/11/17 10:14 PM Reply


    • Still picking the easy races then? 17 runners in the 3.20! Good luck.

      martin colwell 30/11/17 9:54 AM Reply


  • couple of big market movers overnight at Taunton 12-20 Reine Des Miracles 66>20-1 and 12-50 The Pooler 100>25-1 both taking on odds on favs.

    martin whittle 30/11/17 4:57 AM Reply


    • Towcester 2-10 Cosmic Diamond 10>4-1, 3-40 Think Positive 10>9-2.

      martin whittle 30/11/17 5:03 AM Reply


  • Thanks for the video Josh, will watch with interest shortly

    thisisjonnoo 30/11/17 8:45 AM Reply


    • No problem, first part worth watching with a notepad…flick through HRB cards focusing on the trainers…touch wood you may not go wrong by homing in on a few of their runners…well, it worked fairly well for the Lingfield notes, so we shall see. As always, if you like something, never let anything I say put you off!

      Josh 30/11/17 8:49 AM Reply


  • Beau Des Brizais runs in the 1.50 Taunt- I think he was a ‘notebook’ horse from LTO, or mentioned anyway… hampered that day at the wrong moment and the horse he chased home has advertised the form…interested to see how he goes…in truth as yet I haven’t decided if 4s is a good price or not! But with any luck he runs a decent race.

    Josh 30/11/17 9:46 AM Reply


    • I do like a second at the moment, 5s was good enough for me to have a go, thought he was winning that all the way until after the last! Ah. Winner dictated, don’t think can critique ride, his instructions would have been to settle/get him jumping, had every chance if good enough, which he wasn’t on the day.

      Josh 30/11/17 1:59 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the video Josh, most useful.

    I too like Bastien, 1.40 TOW, although unsure about the 10LB claimer? I too expect Linenhall to go in again in the 12.40 TOW. Another early runner I like is Silent Steps for PN in the 1.20 TAU. So I will know my fate early today before pondering going in again.

    Looking forward to Saturday, I have backed Total Recall at 8/1 for the big race and hope to lay circa 7/2 ish or better. I do not fancy it greatly but thought the 8/1 would be value as I could lay on the day and have a free bet on the horse. What does anyone else think?

    martin colwell 30/11/17 11:13 AM Reply


    • Ah he did that well, thought Bastien may appreciate that climb to line and quite pleased with my ‘notebook’ eye, an area of the game I could always improve in… race wasn’t run to suit the last day, caught flat footed, did all best work late…once Jock got after him he has relished that hill. 5s decent if you were at the track, but given I was still cursing the notes pick, I may have had a dabble – drifted which was worth dabble.

      Josh 30/11/17 1:50 PM Reply


      • Yes the ‘boy done good’. Pushed it on trusting in stamina and let the others come if they could. Based upon its previous run it was expected to run on. Drifted and dug me out of a hole.

        martin colwell 30/11/17 2:55 PM Reply


  • Awesome work from Ian and his team again. 2 races, 4 picks, 2 winners.

    Neil 30/11/17 3:37 PM Reply


    • I’ll second that. I guess it was a good time to double my 0.5pt e/w stakes with them from this week.

      Nick Mazur 30/11/17 3:43 PM Reply


    • Agreed, impressive, 101 points banked since 3rd Oct! Today’s at 9/1 & 11/1. Thanks Ian, hope you are celebrating at your local!

      lately 30/11/17 8:19 PM Reply


  • I got caught with my hand in the cookie jar with SP2A today managed to get 15.5 on the Taunton winner but my 13.5 for the winner at Thurles didn’t get matched. Need to stop being greedy I guess.

    Chris Albin 30/11/17 6:11 PM Reply


    • Ah, but it’s a nice problem to have haha.

      Josh 30/11/17 6:27 PM Reply


  • JUst got a nice surprise…got in late…2 nice winners from Ian and his team….Cheers Ian.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 30/11/17 7:50 PM Reply


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