Members Daily Post: 29/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby 

2.30 –

Mr Snoozy (all hncps + hncp hurdle) H1 I3 6/1 UP

Away For Slates (m1) H3 7/2  2nd 

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Note… there is no stats profile for Hereford due to a lack of sufficient data. After this season maybe there will be enough to use.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 26th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/145, +115.5) (1 point win bets)

No ‘notes’ horses…another quiet day…hopefully the last before it hots up for the rest of the week.

 

BONUS…

Time will tell if this proves to be a bonus or not, but I have cast my eye over the water given it is quiet over here, and the 2.55 Punchestown…  the following horse WILL be included in the running ‘notes’ total above… it is a bit shy of 3 miles and I usually get what I deserve when heading to Irish races with no stats/trends to help. But I couldn’t resist…

2.55 Punch – Flemenstorm – 1 point win – 6/1 – Fell 10/1

Ah, well when you are on a bit of a losing streak as I am with the notes sometimes it all goes wrong… maybe another unsighted one like Thomas Brown as he jumped well up until that point. He tanked through this and was thereabouts a few out with the jockey’s hands full – not sure if he was doing too much but that is how he races, and connections deserved what they got, no reason he couldn’t have raced further forward, out of trouble, with a clear sight. Right to take on the fav who only just lost, having made a couple of crunching errors which paid in the end- and was given too much to do.  Hard to say how close the selection would have gone but he would have placed at worst and my hunch is he would have been involved in the finish. 

I will be mildly surprised/fall of my seat in shock, if this one isn’t in the top 4 here…all being well with the horse…if he runs his race, jumps fine, gets luck etc – I am struggling to see how he doesn’t place here…so the EW option is there if you prefer, but I will stick to a win only bet. I don’t want two points on this race, and I won’t ever go 1/2 EW on a horse if I can help it. I feel a bit dirty advising EW on a 6/1 shot, but that’s just me.

The horse… well i have had a good look through this race and he does look the solid option. While he is 9 this is only his seventh handicap chase, 2/6,3p so far. He looks experienced enough but there could be more to come. I can’t think this mark will be the reason for defeat. He relishes heavy and importantly has winning course form. The trainer and jockey have decent stats here and you cannot say that about many others in this. He is a decent jumper, touch wood, and can travel up on the pace…there doesn’t look much on here…it could be criminal if they hold this one up here and they deserve everything they get if they do. While he won’t lead, he should sit in 2nd-5th comfortably, and be in the right spot… they have done that before, they have held him up before. The horse has won after a break so I am not concerned on that front- they can get him fit at home. There is a slight niggle that he may have had issues but I find it of interest that they bring him back to a track he has won at. This is his level and I’d be disappointed if didn’t give me a run for my money. If he drifts markedly that may indicate there has been a training setback, but given that lack of depth in this race I think 6s is ok. While it is a big field, there is so much dross in this to my eye. The horse is clear top rated in HRB which boosts the confidence also. On what these have all done on the track to date, esp over  fences, he is the best in this and best suited to conditions. This is a unique course and track form is a positive I think.

The dangers…well this does feel like a two horse race with the 3/1 fav…he may relish this slight step up, build on his last run, and have too much in hand. But he is going a different way round today and was held up out the back the last day. No doubt BG will now ride him right up there and it will never be in doubt, but I hope they hold him up- as that will make it tougher. I have watched his last race and he did ‘run on’ but past tired horses to my eye. He looked a bit tricky (maybe inexperience) and he just looks too short/worth taking on. That may prove to be foolish but I think it is between these two and mine was double the price.

Everything else in this has major questions to my eye and while something else may win, I wasn’t anywhere near to backing them. This is full of seemingly ‘out of form’ chasers, many of whom have either stamina to prove, or a liking for heavy, or both.

Do with that as you please, but I have played so thought I would share.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

 

TTP All-Weather

This profile is now complete I think. I will tidy it up and post a link to the full report at some point on Wednesday…

Kempton

7.10 – Malteaser (m1) ES 9/1 S3

Wolverhampton – None.

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S Dow Nov/Dec AW

2.20 Wolv – Forceful Appeal (any odds) UP

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Paddy Watch

3.05 Weth – Jennifer Juniper (m2- NHF) (any odds)

3.35 Weth- Belle Amis (as above)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Members’ Research Repository: Post Updated HERE>>> 

(added David’s last two updates in case you missed them, all 4 weekly articles to date and i’ve pulled out the Paddy B + D McCain micros into separate documents) 

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The Tipping League… I haven’t forgotten about this. I am in the process of setting something up via Betref, albeit looks as though I may have to add in usernames manually which adds to the admin…but i’ll think of a way to collect those from interested members… I don’t want to be using RTP usernames, but I should be able to set something up whereby those interesting can inform me what they wish to use etc. Just need to get my head around the nuts and bolts.

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David Pipe…another ‘PU’ LTO master?

Yesterday’s ‘tipping race’ in the free post was just the kind of loss I can cope with. The main danger, at the top of the market, won, one of mine chased them home. I’d like to think if the 4 fences were not dolled off due to low sun (jumped twice) that the winner would have found it a much stiffer test of stamina, with his obvious  ‘flat’ speed between the fences of less importance. But that is gone now. In time, hopefully, the losers will have been worth it for the following pointers… when looking at Saint John Henry I had a look at how Pipe does with horses that PU in their last race…Saint John didn’t add to these stats but it is something to keep an eye on…

David Pipe/ 2012-  / All Chases / PU LTO 

  • 11/1 or shorter SP: 48 bets / 16 wins / 22 places / 33% sr / +79 SP / +98 BFSP / AE 2.2
  • 14/1 or shorter SP: 59 bets / 17 wins / 24 places / 29% sr / +83 SP / +105 BFSP / AE 2.1
  • 16/1 + : 1/32,4p, -6

Those 17 winners (14/1<) are from 15 different horses in the period. The ‘PU’ naturally puts plenty of punters off or mean they probably start a bigger price than they should be…. but they are clearly worth a second glance.

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That’s the lot for today.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • Bahamian Heights Kempton Wednesday 17:40 0.75pt e/w-I can’t find anything over jumps tomorrow but I thought this one was overpriced considering he missed the break and still won and the 2nd won a class 4 NTO, the 3rd was runner NTO and the 4th also won. He has has only gone up 2lbs for his win. I suspect he will need some luck in running but thought he was worth a shot at 14s particularly as Kempton will suit his running style better than Chelmsford would have.

    Nick Mazur 28/11/17 11:08 PM Reply


    • Superb pick Nick, nearly! 20s as well, a nice enough EW return.

      Josh 29/11/17 5:51 PM Reply


      • Yeah will take that all day. Just couldn’t quite reel Kirby in there. Jockey shows promise.

        Nick Mazur 29/11/17 7:12 PM Reply


  • Another competitive race Nick! I can see the value at 16/1 in an open race. You are one of a rare breed on this site who have a go at the all weather. I like Third Time Lucky at 20/1+ in the 2.20 Wol. Recent runs include The Lincoln and Lingfield’s Easter Classic. Down in grade now.

    I think Plantagenet will win the 2.10 Her, only 2/1 BOG but looks solid.

    martin colwell 29/11/17 10:03 AM Reply


    • Where do they get some of these jockeys from? I know he was a 7LB claimer and its my fault for backing him but he went backwards and forwards and then fell off. D Sansom is his name.

      martin colwell 29/11/17 2:18 PM Reply


  • David Peat’s latest updates, 6+7 (will put link in tomorrow’s post)…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Update-6-and-7-wk-beg-27.11.17.pdf

    Josh

    Josh 29/11/17 10:47 AM Reply


  • We know Gigglestown is really only keen on 3 mile or more horses.
    There is an ex-inmate from Noel Meade’s yard sold cheaply to Noel Wilson running FTO today.
    This horse is by Walk in the Park, Sire of Douvan, Min, etc, 2 milers.
    2.30 Wetherby: BILLY FLIGHT 28/1, (4pl) is running; first time ever; over 2.3 instead of 3 miles.

    Edmund Brooke 29/11/17 12:10 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Interesting angle re David Pipe pulled up last time out.
    Other trainers to consider include:
    Graeme Macpherson;
    G T Bewley;
    Sue Smith;
    P Bowen;
    Kerry Lee.
    Good old Horseracebase!

    Ray

    kipper24 29/11/17 4:57 PM Reply


    • Cheers Ray, I touched on Honeyball a couple of weeks back, need to dig his out again… i’ll have a look at some of those… it’s an interesting angle, mainly as in general I suspect such horses are put in at a bigger price than they should be, due to the PU…of course game never that simple and may be good as starting points (and then say looking to see what horse is doing differently and why they pulled up the last day etc)
      Josh

      Josh 29/11/17 4:59 PM Reply


  • I had a look at PF Nicholls horses when pulled up last time out a while ago
    Novice Hurdle, Handicap Chase and Hurdle and Handicap Novice Chase.
    0 to 1 run last 90 days
    Last run between 46 to 300 days

    13 winners from 44 runners (29%) +51.65

    He has only had winners at the following tracks
    Cheltenham, Chepstow, Haydock, Kelso, Kempton, Newton Abbot and Wincanton

    13 from 27 (48%) +68.65

    David Peat 29/11/17 5:26 PM Reply


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