Members Daily Post: 24/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Catterick

12.20 – Jokers And Rogues (all hncps) ES G3 7/1  S3  UP

12.50 –

Middlebrow (hncp chase) 7/1 WON 7/1>13/2 

Christmas Twenty (hncp chase) H3 8/1 UP

1.50 – Delusionsofgrandeur (all hncps, hncp chases + m1, m1, m2) ES+ H1 I1 7/4  S3A   WON 7/4>6/4 

 

Ascot

2.40 –

Chris Pea Green (hncp chase) 18/1 S2  UP

Pougne Bobbi (m1) 14,30  6/1  UP

3.15 –

Antony (hncp chase) H1 3/1 UP

Definitely Grey (hncp chase) 18/1 S2 UP

Marcilhac (m2) 14 H3 I3 G3  4/1 S4   UP

3.50 – Verdana Blue (m1) H3 I1 7/2     WON 7/2 

 

Ffos Las 

2.50 – On The Road (m2 + m2) ES H1 I1 7/2  S3  2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 19th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/142, +118.5) (1 point win bets)

NOTES 

None… nothing at the prices leaping out at me for ‘tipping’ purposes.

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Other thoughts… no reason why Marcilhac won’t run his race and go close to improving the results of S4, he looks solid, in what on paper is an open enough race. Delusionofgrandeur ‘will’ make all. I’d be disappointed if he didn’t win that given what we know. Unless that last run has bottomed him out. Then just a question of price, and I am useless with judging ‘shorties’ so i’ll leave that to you! 🙂 If you like the odd fun multiple bet i’d be tempted to lump him in with whatever else you may be backing. I will watch MiddlebrowWON 7/1>13/2  (ah bugger, a wrong ‘price’ decision there, as he wins like a 2/1 shot. Albeit in moments like that I have to remember the losers I’ve dodged on price consideration. An art not a science sadly! Annoying. Read his ‘story’ well I think. Wrong to think 7s not big enough. Unexposed, up in trip,down in class,a reason why recent runs may not be true showing. Bottled it.)  I couldn’t decide what to do with him… he is unexposed over fences… the way he was finishing off his races and the subsequent 80 day break leads me to ‘guess’ that he may have had a wind op! How topical. If he hasn’t I have no idea why he would leave behind previous form but that break suggests they have done something- unless he had a setback. A bit too much guessing, no ratings pointers to boost confidence,poor recent efforts,fitness q, so I left it. Were he a double figure price I may have rolled the dice. Does drop down in class.

Muggy… i rarely place multiples but the same horses are appearing in a few places (my stats/comments/SP2A) and I have thrown 5 on the nose at this 56/1 treble… Delusionsofgrandeur (apt name!) + Thomas Brown + Midnight Maestro. One of them will clearly falter, we all know that! I have win bets on the latter two. David, Nick, SP2A, have aligned on Thomas Brown, and I can see why. He should be going close in that race.

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As I type Blessed has just refused to enter the stalls, a real shame, and rather frustrating for those who made the effort to go there this evening. She does have a mind of her own and was not keen at all. I’m a bit disappointed with the lack of effort to load her once RK jumped off. They didn’t seem to give her much of a ‘3rd’ chance. Damn. Who would own horses??!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather (TEST)

Newcastle

5.45 – Breathoffreshair (m2) H1 3/1

7.15 – Young Tiger (all hncps) I3 4/1

8.15 – Newmarket Warrior (m1) H1 G1 3/1 S1 

8.45 – Mr Potter (m2) I1 12/1 S6 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

TTP All-Weather:  Update Report: Chelm+ Newcastle: READ HERE>>>

 

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Big Race Stats/Trends/Shortlist

3.50 Ascot: 11 renewals (11/109,31p)

  • 11/11 had 1-3 hurdle wins
  • 10/11 had 0-1 run in previous 90 days (2+, 1/39,5p) 
  • 9/11 OR 119-127 (9/47,18p)

 

Shortlist: Little Miss Poet / Attest/ Midnight Maestro 

 

Other points of interest

  • 11/11 8/1 or shorter SP (17/2+, 0/66,11p)
  • 8/11 had 0-4 hncp runs (8/34,13p)
  • 6/11 ran 181-240 days ago (6/18,8p) 
  • Trainers: Henderson (3 wins) , Hobbs (3 wins) , V Williams (2 wins, no runners) , A King (1 win, 1/4,4p) 

 

Thoughts: Well if you wish to play in this race, from a stats/profile/trainer record perspective I wouldn’t look any further than Verdana Blue WON 7/2 (Hendo), Midnight Maestro (UP/PU), Little Miss Poet UP

The Hobbs horse is the biggest price of those three and ‘could be anything’ . Both the other two are in that category also. I thought Midnight Maestro ran an interesting race LTO, as if there was a plan/target… it looks like this may have been it. BG rides. Anyway, do with that info what you please. The last two ‘shortlist’ for C2+ handicap hurdles have included both winners at 25/1 and 16/1 (from 12 horses total) I’d be slightly worried about Henderson’s, in the context of price, if this is testing enough. My personal preference would be for the other two but we know how this goes! 🙂 (well, that was obviously going to happen) 

 

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The Week That Was:

Week 3: 13th-19th Nov: READ HERE>>>

(Includes a focus on Paddy Brennan)

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Worth a read… 

The comment below was from Jamie in Thursday’s post… I haven’t repeated it to self indulge, albeit he is one of the ‘real people’ who have been here since the start (there’s around 200 of those, thanks guys and girls) … the point, esp if new/in a trial, is about the ‘advised strategies’ and comfort levels. For Jamie a more focused approach suits him best, and that is the point of the options. I do think it’s important to leave enough space, mentally as much as anything, to ensure you can enjoy your betting- and to leave space/time/capacity to pick your own horses/engage in other content/use your own subjective interpretation etc. Those comfort levels will vary from person to person. Backing 8-20 horses a day is perfect for some. Others may only want 2-4 say. Always options.

Hi guys. just a quick one about strategies as a lots been said on the quiet months. I’ve been following for 18 months and this is the most honest site ive ever found .So far I only follow S1 S2 to 1 point each . I also follow S4 to 2.5 points . I also put S4 in doubles or trixies if there’s 3 qualifiers. I find following just the 3 strategies keeps my betting level at something I’m comfortable with.I can then enjoy the racing .hope this helps.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • Thomas Brown Ascot Friday 14:40 2pt win-Looks the one to beat here. If you look at his record outside of class 1 company with 9 or less runners it reads 11112111. Back to 1lb below his last winning mark and drops back into a class 2 for the first time since his last win. He has a win and a 2nd from 3 runs at the track and this is his ideal distance. Madden was onboard for his last win. Fry is in great form as usual. He has race fitness on his side compared to the two Henderson runners. I respect the fav but Nicky hasn’t had a handicap chase winner coming back off 60+ days above a class 3 since 2014.

    Stuccodor Ffos Las Friday 13:40 0.5pt e/w-The more I look at this one the more overpriced he looks. Paddy makes just his 2nd trip to the track in a year for just this one run and doesn’t even stick around for the Fergal bumper runner. The horse whilst 0/12 over hurdles has placed 5/5 over going with heavy in the description. He is also 2/2 when returning within 7 days. The visor goes back on is definite bonus since it definitely worked when Weld applied it. Paddy is 4/16, 10p in non-handicap hurdles for the trainer. He is the only horse in the field that has won on heavy ground. I really couldn’t help myself.

    Nick Mazur 23/11/17 8:47 PM Reply


    • Thomas Brown – Good to Soft, Class 2 down, 34+ days since last run (ran on Nov 2!), Fields of 12 or less. So meets all bar one criteria.

      martin colwell 23/11/17 9:36 PM Reply


      • The 34+ days is a red herring since he has only ran once in a class 2 or below in a field of 9 or less with less than 34 days rest finishing 2nd whilst giving a fair bit of weight to the winner.

        Nick Mazur 23/11/17 10:22 PM Reply


        • Urgh, unlucky there.. think he was unsighted at the fence and walked straight through it, thankfully up ok. Don’t think he saw hit, a bit unlucky. Jock seemed to just allow the front two go past, which given how race worked out was good call as they folded… would have been in the perfect spot and track position on winner, but who knows. Was a fair way out. Inevitable I suppose, he had a great weight of expectation!! On we go.

          Josh 24/11/17 3:00 PM Reply


          • Yeah looks like my luck is turning but given my last 6-8 weeks I was due a change.

            Nick Mazur 24/11/17 4:13 PM Reply


          • I would say give Thomas Brown a miss until he wins a race. You dont need a cliff horse.

            martin colwell 24/11/17 5:52 PM Reply


    • I am having an each way nibble on that one too Nick.He does get the odd big priced winner for Leech and gets few places too.Leech does well at track with hurdlers,the visor and Paddy’s agricultural riding may nick a place.He couldn’t ride Ocean Cove as its restricted to conditionals and amateurs,be saving his energy for the spud on sat

      gearoid180468 23/11/17 11:07 PM Reply


    • Following on from Nick’s thought’s on STUCCODOR 1.40 Ffos Las I have it 2nd in my ratings…..None here stand out and none has won on this going bar S….. It has also placed 6 times in the going.
      When i say 2nd in ratings it’s joint really with Davy Russel’s mount.
      An EW wager is certainly worth a go.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 24/11/17 11:11 AM Reply


    • Stuccodor 5th
      Well worth the 33/1

      Edmund 24/11/17 4:33 PM Reply


      • So did you get paid for 5th? The horse must have been beaten by a distance. I would marry that bookie if he paid you on 5th.

        martin colwell 24/11/17 5:55 PM Reply


  • 3.50 Ascot
    Noted the above
    An interesting race, I have SPEREDEK down as the quickest hurdler.
    Ciaran Gethings, claiming 3lb has won on the horse before.
    Only just a bet, EW 6/1.
    Edmund

    Edmund Brooke 23/11/17 10:06 PM Reply


  • 14.40 Ascot – THOMAS BROWN – I had down exactly exactly the same as you Nick – Class 2 and below and 9 runners or less. I thought he ran a good race last time out in a Grade 3 event at this track finishing a never nearer 5th. Since 2014 Harry Fry has a healthy 29% SR at this track.

    13.50 Catterick DELUSIONSOFGRANDEUR – if we look at this horses runs in Class 3 and below when racing at 3m1/2f to 3m1.5f it reads: 1111. He is 3 from 3 at this track and has won 4 from 7 on undulating or very undulating tracks.
    His trainer has had 12 winners from 18 runners at this track under the following conditions – Beginners Chase, Novice Chase, Handicap and Handicap Novice Chase/ 6-y-o to 8-y-o/ ridden by Danny Cook, Harry Haynes or Mr J England.
    It is also a qualifier for the Danny Cook/Sue Smith micro angle that I posted a while ago.

    David Peat 24/11/17 3:55 AM Reply


  • 150C Any illusions about the favourite winning might require a prudent saver on Milansbar, who takes a drop in class and is on his last winning rating – with a good 7lb claimer on the job, off top weight.
    Started a winning sequence in 2012 with a ‘fresh’ victory and that last win was in C3 by eight lengths. So the only concern might be fitness if this is a prep for a near target.

    chrisrees 24/11/17 9:47 AM Reply


  • I see from TTP that Ewan Williams seems to go well at Ffos Las. In the 1.40, albeit a maiden hurdle and not a handicap, Dark Invader seems good value at 10/1 each way.

    martin colwell 24/11/17 11:13 AM Reply


    • Apologies for a poor effort here. Perhaps I and others should steer clear of tipping in such races?

      martin colwell 24/11/17 2:55 PM Reply


  • I see that Ollie Bell is rocking the Josh lookalike look on Racing UK.

    martin colwell 24/11/17 12:33 PM Reply


    • haha.. albeit he did just say a case could be made that an evens money fav in a weak/poor Catterick novice hurdle could be argued to be value… words I would never utter! 🙂 Maybe I need to buy a grey polo shirt to complete the look!

      Josh 24/11/17 2:34 PM Reply


  • Hello,
    Can anyone help me get a handle on Donald McCain Jnr using HRB?
    I’ve tried a lot of different scenarios to try and get a winning edge but to no avail.
    Any ideas would be appreciated.
    Cheers
    Andy

    Andy Ness 24/11/17 2:55 PM Reply


    • Andy – never had a lot of success with this trainer but he does well with Novice Hurdlers at certain tracks – Cartmel, Hexham and Bangor have all proved profitable, could be a starting point for you

      David Peat 24/11/17 3:05 PM Reply


      • Yep like David I have never found anything generic for him really, outside of certain tracks he does well with certain types.
        I remember Ben A looked at his record in Scotland, and that may be something to look at, with certain types.
        I need to have a proper look at him again, as he is firing again after the Rooney’s took away all their horses. That knocked them for a time I think but he appears to be back.
        Angles with Will Kennedy worth a look. He does tend to win with all types so tricky from that point of view. As always there is looking at headgear/tongue ties, distance/class moves,position in weights in handicaps, runs in 90 days, days since run, etc etc. No doubt you’ve ploughed through plenty of those.
        Josh

        Josh 24/11/17 3:09 PM Reply


  • Thanks for saving what was looking like a rather bleak day Josh.

    Nick Mazur 24/11/17 3:34 PM Reply


    • Ah, it’s turned into a Magic day all of a sudden! Hoping Alan King or Hobbs can round it off , we shall see. Hendos probably hacks up now.

      Josh 24/11/17 3:35 PM Reply


      • Well given I was fairly certain it was between Maestro and Verdana (but couldn’t split them) and SP2A had tipped the former so that was my only trends bet so thanks again 🙂

        Nick Mazur 24/11/17 4:00 PM Reply


        • Good stuff, yep I won’t shout about whether I may have diverted some attention onto Hendo’s haha when a) it was clearly ok ground and more to point b) the hobbs horses drifted like mad,money was down on him..would have been painful if none of them had got up! That mistake at the first has completely knocked Kings I think, never happy after it really. Shame. May lack pace for that trip maybe, but issues long before then. On we go. Good job Hendo a creature of habit in that race. Hit 4s . 9/2 at one stage.

          Josh 24/11/17 4:02 PM Reply


          • Well they both came out of the race that Elgin won before winning the Greatwood last weekend which looked considerably stronger on paper than any other form out there. I suspect Maestro would have been challenging if not for the mistake so one to keep onside NTO assuming no battle scars.

            Just a shame I couldn’t split them before the race since my 1.5-2pts would have been considerably higher but that’s life.

            Nick Mazur 24/11/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • Best ride of the day Tom Bellamy take a bow

    christopher jones 24/11/17 3:39 PM Reply


  • magical man many thanks josh great stuff,regarding making a steady profit for me a combination of your highlighted selections along wth sp2a and triple top rated horses,between these three things there are always value winners many thanks again josh

    paul 24/11/17 3:41 PM Reply


    • Pleasure Paul, been a good year so far with the free jumps tips (+Festival week), now at their highest point for the year I think. Glad you had a go, a superb ride. Good to hear you have found/settled on an approach that you enjoy/are happy with, that’s what it’s all about.

      Josh 24/11/17 4:14 PM Reply


    • Yes well done Josh, had the 8/1 and he stuck his head out at the line.

      martin colwell 24/11/17 5:57 PM Reply


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