Members Daily Post: 23/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Market Rasen

2.45 – Russian Royale (hncp hurdle) ES  18/1  S2 S3 UP

 

Wincanton

12.20 –

Without Frontier (all hncps) I3  5/1   UP

Cotswold Road (m1) ES  10/1  S2 S3  PU (effectively refused, again)

12.50 –

Volpone Jelois (hncp hurdle + m2) ES+ I3  13/2  S3A   UP

Buckthorn Timothy (m1) ES H1 I1 G3  9/2  S3 S4   WON 9/2>7/2 

Druids Folly (m1) I3  14/1  S2 S5  UP

1.25 – Cucklington (hncp chase) ES+ H1 I1 G3   2/1   S3A S4   WON 2/1> 13/8 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 19th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/142, +118.5) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None.

 

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Re-cap…well, I won’t be dwelling on Wednesday’s racing for too long. Both ‘tips’ could still be running. That’s the way it goes, no issues there. Happy with the method in my madness. It looks like Topham Bay doesn’t want bottomless ground as she ran no sort of race- maybe 3m+ on better ground is the order of the day. I haven’t thrown myself over a cliff edge for a few weeks now, maybe this one can help me on my way! The run of Beyondtemptation wasn’t a shock, but more than happy to take a stab at 16s+. She will make all again around Hexham one day, and let’s hope she is a decent price when doing so. The lull is happening on all fronts at the moment, but soldier on we must.

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Blessed To Empress… She runs again for ‘my’ syndicate in the 5.55 Chelmsford. She should be sharper after the last run but I expected her to win that day. She missed the start again, was always on the back-foot, and never really travelled. She stayed on well into 3rd, which was pleasing. She is drawn 3 here and we are not using the blindfold- a chance that took away her early sharpness, having worked at home. She has this annoying habit of sitting back just as the gate opens. There are very few better than Kingscote to get them out and I think the lead is there if she wants it. It could all depend on the break again. I’ll be watching on TV as it’s a bit of a trek down there for an evening meeting. Anything could happen. All about the hope. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

TTP Two Year Stats (TEST)

1.10 MR –

Applesandpierres (hncp hurdle) 14,30  ES H3 9/1  S3 UP

Cake De L’isle (m1+m1)  ES 11/1  S2 S3  UP

12.50 Winc – Volpone Jelois (m1) ES+I3 13/2  S3A UP

 

TTP: All-Weather (TEST) * (note below, sect 4)

Chelm

7.30 – Qaffaal (m1) ES+ I1 G1  13/2  S1 S3A S6 

8.30 – Maggie Pink (m2) ES 14/1 S3 

9.00 – Banta Bay (3yo+, m1 + m2) 14  ES 9/1 S3 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: if you missed Wednesday’s musings you can read those HERE>>> 

 

How to bet the strategies…. just to clarify that the official advice, and what all results are based on, is to back any advised strategies (and all content really unless stated) to 1 point win bets, level stakes. I am a firm believer that any approach should work to 1 point win bets. Clearly you can take whatever approach you wish, but I have no data on say betting a % of your bank, and have no idea if that would improve results or not.  If any of you have any other suggestions (esp the many of you who have been here over 12 months+) then do get chatting in the comments. But I would start with an adequate bank, at least 150 points, betting 1 point win bets, starting at no more than £2.50.

I will try and offer some advice on Each-Way betting, when I have got my head around things. It looks like, as an example, backing S2 qualifiers that are priced 16/1-25/1 EW, would return a similar profit to 1 point win bets in the same price range, but with the benefit of reducing losing runs. But i’ll attempt to offer some clarity on that in the coming days.

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Trainer Track Profiles: All-Weather 2017/18

The link below is for the Chelmsford stats, from the start of 2015. I have used the same template as the Flat (turf) TTP report, and have added in class/distance move.   I will get cracking with the other tracks asap. No idea if there is enough data for Newcastle as yet, but I will have a look. Probably not in time for Thursday’s meeting. I would use any qualifiers as a starting point, but as always you can do what you want with them. At this stage I have no intention to post qualifiers, but if you enjoy the AW with any luck they won’t take long to find. And if any horses catch your eye from the stats you can always post in the comments! 🙂 

Chelmsford: READ HERE>>>

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*NOTE All-Weather Qualifiers

  • I will endeavour to post TTP All-Weather Qualifiers in the ‘Test Zone’ section above. This is a Test. This is the first time I have compiled AW stats using the ‘Flat’ profile and it will be interesting to see how they get on over time. They may add another string to our bow. These qualifiers may be posted on the morning of racing and will usually be at the bottom of my daily members’ post ‘to do’ list. 
  • I would advise a watching brief until some data/stats are available. Or you may just ignore them completely. As always it is about information available to use as you please. I suppose for those of you who prefer the flat it may help you get through the winter! 🙂
  • Advised Strategies… for now I am using the FLAT strategies as the guide, hopefully for obvious reasons! But it is a completely different code so I have no idea how say the Geegeez/Inform Speed ratings will perform on this surface. New approaches may emerge. 

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The Week That Was:

Week 3: 13th-19th Nov: READ HERE>>>

(Includes a focus on Paddy Brennan)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi
    At the moment I’m a 1 pt win on all strategies man. I’ve seen the comment from Mike on yesterday’s members post about how the qualifiers in the range 16-25/1 ,betting ew would have been roughly the same profit than 1pt win. I’ll be interested in seeing his final results once he pulls them out. I have the bank to continue 1 point win only but if others have different approaches that work for them and ew also works and pulls decent profit, then I’m always open to change. Thanks

    Matt M 22/11/17 6:50 PM Reply


  • My City born gf asked me one summer,”why are you cutting and chopping logs,its not cold”.There were some choice responses circling around my brain but i politely replied”they will be seasoned and ready to burn when it does get cold”She uses gas and it is there whenever its needed.Winter in the west of Ireland can range between 3 months and 2 years,there is no one that can predict how long it will be,so you have to prepare for worst case scenario.
    After a really hot streak we are now eating into our reserves hopefully from profits.The main thing is to protect that bank so that when the upturn comes that we can continue the upward curve.The worst feeling is seeing that come and being bust.
    Most members I would guess are similar in some way,flitting from one system to the next big thing,there is no new best thing,only sticking to what works long term,having patience and perseverance

    gearoid180468 22/11/17 7:21 PM Reply


  • Sorry,were similar

    gearoid180468 22/11/17 7:23 PM Reply


  • Banta Bay in 9pm fits a few key stats from the aw report,price varies from 8/1-11/1

    gearoid180468 22/11/17 7:41 PM Reply


  • Russian Royale Market Rasen Thursday 14:45 0.75pt e/w- Another tragic day of racing tomorrow. This one comes with similar risks as Beyond did today but I really couldn’t not back him at the price. All his wins over jumps have been going right handed (3/5 overall and 2/3 at the track) and its the first time he is running in that direction since 2015. He has dropped down to a very low mark 11lbs lower than his last win. His jockey has only ridden him twice (given how often his trainer uses him that is unusual since I would say he is Hammond’s go to claimer) resulting in a 1st and a 2nd. All his wins have come off breaks of 20 days or less so he would have needed it LTO. Hammond is flying with 3 wins from his last 7 runners and the jockey has also had 2 winners from his last 5 rides. He qualifies on the stats above also. Trainer has a good record here.(7/26, 13p +39 in handicap hurdles in the past 5 years at the track)

    Nick Mazur 22/11/17 9:37 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Will you be keeping track of the all weather TTP qualifiers? Reason I ask is I’d be interested to back them if they follow the same sort of profit as the jumps stats. Although I have an account with HRB I don’t have access to the Geegeez ratings in order to identify S1 qualifiers which is the strategy that forms the backbone of my bets. Thanks

    jamiem 22/11/17 10:29 PM Reply


    • Hi Jamie,
      I wasn’t planning on doing so but on reflection it is probably best I do. A good approach may emerge.
      The ‘advised strategies’ will follow the Flat advised strategies for now, but if you take a different approach do keep me posted on progress. There may not be enough data to judge for quite some time. With any luck, esp those based on ratings pointers, they will do as well as their flat turf cousins. S6 may be the place you focus on, if you are a Jumps S1 follower.
      Josh

      Josh 23/11/17 9:13 AM Reply


      • I’ll track the ES, ES+ and Double top rated, Tripled rated and see where they are at the end of each month if you want. (will be easy enough to track until they make 50pts profit in which case my staking changes slightly)

        Nick Mazur 23/11/17 10:06 AM Reply


        • Although it won’t include anything below 3/1

          Nick Mazur 23/11/17 10:07 AM Reply


          • Cheers, Nick, any help on that front would be appreciated.

            Josh 23/11/17 10:20 AM Reply


  • What a shit start to the day. Can’t get into my gmail a/c cos it wants phone verification. Not giving them twats my phone no. Anyone know a way round this?

    cheers

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 23/11/17 9:30 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike i have that as well with Gmail…..I normally just switch out and start again but it’s a pain in the arse, so now i have it on my saved right at the point of clicking sign in to bypass that crap.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 23/11/17 11:03 AM Reply


      • cheers Tony,
        I didn’t realise they track every point of log-in????? Seems they don’t like you having family/friends and logging in from different locations.!!!!!!!!! I’ve had the problem before but always been able to get in by refreshing security screen. No idea why but apparently my pc is telling google I’m in Basingstoke. F’kin long way from where I’m sat. The buggers have got my moby now.
        mike

        titus_a_duxass 23/11/17 12:18 PM Reply


        • Oddly enough I was talking to my Stepson yesterday who builds financial platforms on the internet. He told me that the business he works for (an online payment handling company) can get a complete credit profile on anyone who phones within 0.5 seconds of the mobile number being connected.

          They don’t do kyc like traditional banks they simply rely on technology identifying the credit risks.

          Our freedoms have really already been taken. If you have a mobile or any sort of credit arrangements your info is in the commercial domain.
          Hugh

          alpha2 23/11/17 1:23 PM Reply


  • Mike
    From my experience they want your phone no to send you a verification no. to verify it is you trying to get into your acc .
    There is no hiding place in this world these days all big corporations want to know what you doing where and when and at all times. Big Brother is watching.!!!

    Mike

    mickeydee 23/11/17 9:53 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      Yep, they txt’d me a verification number and no problem getting in. Assured me mobile no. secure and not for sharing. Still can’t figure why they had me in Basingstoke when I’m on landline broadband in the pennines.

      Mike

      titus_a_duxass 23/11/17 2:17 PM Reply


  • i saw this one posted up when it last ran

    I also see it’s in josh’s system today.

    I have put together what was posted from 2 posters
    when it last ran.

    Chelmsford 8.30 MAGGIE PINK 18/1

    She is no mug around here.
    Her last success came at Newbury back in 2015 in a
    Class 3 event off a mark 92, 29lb higher than she is today

    Her form on the polytrack is rock solid

    She’s twice finished 2ND Here off a mark of 85
    In Class 2 and 3 company
    That has mainly been her level for the majority of her career.

    She’s now in Class 5

    Her form figures over 7f on the AW at Class 2 and 3 level reads

    1,1,5,4,1,1,3,1,1,6,4

    Her latest 4th over this 7f,
    she was far from disgraced beaten 4 lengths by Fredericka

    Her previous 6th was better, having forced the pace from an early stage

    That was her first run on the surface since February.

    This mare is thrown in here, In my opinion.

    If she is let loose on the front end then the rest enter danger as she can be a tough horse to peg back

    I can see her putting up a bold show

    ——————————-

    Cliff 23/11/17 10:32 AM Reply


  • The racing is a bit better today, but still mediocre. Nothing stands out re a decent bet at present. Hopefully Ascot can provide something better? I hear a good word for Sam Spinner on Saturday.

    martin colwell 23/11/17 10:47 AM Reply


    • Given the race he was 2nd in LTO is one of the hottest of the season you would expect him to do very well although I suspect the odds might be poor.

      Nick Mazur 23/11/17 10:54 AM Reply


  • Good day all,

    Looking forward to seeing how the AW TTP test perform, with you using the same flat profile. I think it’s a good starting point and I’ll chip in with my own thoughts through the season.

    Gav

    Gavin 23/11/17 12:05 PM Reply


  • Hopefully that’s a sign of our luck on the qualifiers starting to change.

    Nick Mazur 23/11/17 1:02 PM Reply


    • Ha, yep… the Hobbs horse has got up thankfully I think, so can celebrate that one. It all evens out over time.

      Josh 23/11/17 1:06 PM Reply


  • Incredible the amount of work you put in to this Josh and the amount of content you provide makes the subscription amazing value for money.

    NICK BRYANT 23/11/17 3:27 PM Reply


    • Cheque is in the post Nick! 🙂 cheers, much appreciated. Thankfully for those of you who like such things i’m like a pig in muck with my approach to the game- which is encapsulated in these posts (+ the 3m+ chasers on free posts) – and there are no short corners/quick fixes/quick wins. Only hard graft. That’s what you pay for.

      Josh 23/11/17 3:30 PM Reply


  • Hi guys.just a quick one about strategies as a lots been said on the quiet months.Ive been following for 18 months and this is the most honest site ive ever found .So far I only follow S1 S2 to 1 point each .I also follow S4 to 2.5 points .i also put S4 in doubles or trixies if there’s 3 qualifiers.I find following just the 3 strategies keeps my betting level at something I’m comfortable with.I can then enjoy the racing .hope this helps.

    jamie2255 23/11/17 3:28 PM Reply


    • Thanks Jamie, makes very good sense to me… that point about enjoying the racing/being comfortable is key… you have to leave ‘space’ to enjoy the game, which if X bets is too much for you, is hard to do. And you need to leave space for your own analysis/thoughts/bets etc. Clearly those comfort levels will differ for different people. As always it’s about choice, and pleased to hear you’ve settled on an approach that suits you, that’s what it’s all about.

      Josh 23/11/17 3:34 PM Reply


  • Paddy And Fergal have just added to those NHF stats in the ‘week that was’ link above, 4/1 winner in last MR. (and no I wasn’t on, spotted post race, head is stuck in Ascot handicap trends + Newcastle TTP) On they march.

    Josh 23/11/17 3:31 PM Reply


  • Yes I got 11/2 this morning,was a fairy weak affair and didn’t take much winning,Patrick gets leg up on Oceans Cove 4 pm FFos Las.They are probably worth backing blindly at 5+

    gearoid180468 23/11/17 4:38 PM Reply


    • Ocean cove does look interesting tomorrow given FOBs red hot bumper form and also as Patrick is 2 from 3, 3 places in the last 2 years riding for Fergal.

      JamesP 23/11/17 5:34 PM Reply


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