Members Daily Post: 20/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Leicester 

NONE 

 

Plumpton

2.10 – Kastani Beach (m2) H1 I1 G1 4/1  S4 2nd 

3.10 –

Our Sox (m1) 14 G1 15/2   PU

Master Burbidge (m1) 3/1 WON 4/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 12th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/139, +121.5) (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES

3.10 Plump – Our Sox – 15/2

I’m going to take a punt on this one, the price just allowing a dart I think. Honeyball’s team are firing on all cylinders and all of their more fancied runners (12/1<…hard to find the bigger priced ones), or maybe all of their runners, will be worth noting in the next couple of weeks I suspect. This one is having his second start for the yard after a break and I suspect he will find the key at some point. This is his 8th handicap chase and he hasn’t done much over fences to date. But, it is only his second run in one for Honeyball and he drops markedly in trip and in class from LTO. Backing chasers with Ps next to their name is generally asking for trouble but i will touch on those Honeyball PU stats I highlighted a couple of weeks back… with handicap chasers that PU LTO he is 6/25,8p, +72 BFSP. Not a bad micro in itself. When moving said chasers down in trip by 2.5f or more he is 4/8,4p, +66, and when dropping them in class, 5/11,6p, +85. There was enough there for me to have a go at 15/2 / 7/1. It looks a moderate enough race and is just the sort to bounce back. Maybe Coleman will be more aggressive with him and the horse did have some ability over hurdles. He could just be moderate. Any marked drift will be a big negative I think but hopefully he stays steady/is nibbled at.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

TTP 2 Year Stats (TEST!)

Plumpton

2.40 – Rothman (hncp hurdle, +m2) ES H3 I3 G1  4/1  S3 S4  S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 2nd

3.40 – Roarta Avenue (hncp hurdle + m1 + m2) ES H1 I3 G3  2/1  S3 S4  S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: To follow (possibly Tuesday)…

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of to Leicester I go… Really Super runs in the 3.50 and I am heading to the track to watch her run. She has been put in a 7/4 fav at the moment and she should go close, all being well. I think she will appreciate this track a bit more but we will find out soon enough. I’ll be out of the ‘office’ for most of Monday. Blessed To Empress ran a decent race at Chelmsford having blown the start again… for whatever reason she didn’t travel as well at Lingfield and ran on into third. 

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NOTE… Tuesday’s Post… is likely to be up first thing Tuesday morning. I will be back from Leicester late in the evening but will post it up if I can. It will be up by 8am if not. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • A question.
    I placed a Combined Forecast today.
    Elgin, Project Bluebook and Flying Tiger.
    FG was a NR and PB was 7th Elgin won
    I was paid £22 to £1 x 6 bet.Can some explain how I managed to get paid on this bet??. Bet 365

    Mike

    mickeydee 19/11/17 7:27 PM Reply


    • Perhaps you were paid for Elgin and the non runner and the non runner with Elgin, i.e. two singles on Elgin.

      Tom 19/11/17 7:37 PM Reply


    • If one of the horses in a forecast is a non-runner, the bet becomes a single win on the other horse.

      You had Elgin to beat FT and reversed, which becomes £2 win on Elgin.

      Chris Murrell 19/11/17 8:00 PM Reply


  • Mike,the nr makes it 2 single winners at 10/1 I would say,in the old days would be a void bet.I had that with doubles where I had a non runner and t becomes a straight win

    gearoid180468 19/11/17 7:55 PM Reply


    • Guys
      Thanks for your reply s I knew in doubles a NR goes onto as single but wasn’t aware it applied to combined Forecasts.

      I had a good day today I find Sundays far more profitable than Saturdays “less is more” comes to mind.

      Mike

      mickeydee 19/11/17 8:33 PM Reply


  • Cracking double today and hope some of you followed.

    Howlongisafoot Plumpton Monday 15:10 1pt e/w-He is a horse which seems to respond well to headgear changes. If you look at his record when there has been a change of break of 60 days or less his record is 12121 so I liked the fact that they take off the blinkers here. On top of that Gordon is 3/7 in handicap chases here in the past 12 months. He is still extremely well treated on his old form and is running in a class 4 handicap chase worth less than £6k for the first time in his career and is flexible ground wise. The horse has also won around here which is a bonus. Noonan comes he for just the one ride and has a solid record for the trainer.

    Nick Mazur 19/11/17 8:48 PM Reply


    • Yes Nick… a good day all round sp2a had all 3 placed in the 3.00 at Cheltenham. Unfortunately i left the double out….
      with Josh noting similar selections, it usually make is a good tip. Best of luck with your write up’s again Nick.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 19/11/17 9:04 PM Reply


    • There are only 8 runners which means down to 7 by the off?

      martin colwell 19/11/17 10:04 PM Reply


    • Rothman Plumpton 14:40 1pt e/w-I tipped him up LTO and he just got done (at least it was by a 20/1 stats qualifier). The price looked a little thin last night but has now drifted to an e/w price. Obviously this is an amateur race however Gina Andrews is no mug and at worst she is the 3rd best jockey in the race.

      Nick Mazur 20/11/17 11:48 AM Reply


      • Poor horse cant get a break. Still 13/2 about a 5/2 shot is value and small profit there.

        Nick Mazur 20/11/17 2:50 PM Reply


  • Well done Ian at sp2a….. a great result with Elgin winning and the other two placed.
    Terrific stuff.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 19/11/17 9:07 PM Reply


  • Gl Josh, should be running well, probably got the Irish import as a danger!

    Jack 19/11/17 10:27 PM Reply


    • cheers Jack, so hard to know in these races, and some can leave any moderate flat form behind when seeing a hurdle. Dickie should give us a lead hopefully. Yep the Edmunds horse looks interesting, the one I fear if taking to it. He is in form, generally improves them from other yards, and can ready them. RS should have learnt plenty from the last day… she didn’t like the track I don’t think… outpaced at crucial point or there is a chance she didn’t like being in front/idled…so if she hits the front today at any point we shall see what happens! I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t get competitive.

      Josh 20/11/17 7:34 AM Reply


  • Mr Maxwell is back on his Chef D’Equipe at Plumpton today, 2.40. Should provide some interesting jockeyship. Favourite at present.

    martin colwell 20/11/17 7:37 AM Reply


  • Fun Bet today, all josh’s 4 picks.
    Kastani Beach
    Rothman
    Our Sox
    Roarta Ave
    ew acc, plus 1st 3 ew treble,
    Not much else on today and had such a good day yesterday, now I’ve said that it will a go t*** up. You have to on it to win it as they say.

    Mike

    mickeydee 20/11/17 10:30 AM Reply


  • Just an interesting stat for today in the 1.10 @ Plumpton. Charlie Longsdon is 17.9% SR with his runners in first time tongue tie, but he is also 2 from 2 with Westerner progeny in first time tongue tie. Some Ambition is making it’s hurdles debut today and although it hasn’t shown much to date, Longsdon is the type of trainer that can ‘sneak one in in an event’ such as this.

    Get’s my shilling anyway. Is worth it just to see.

    Tim

    Tim 20/11/17 12:23 PM Reply


  • Forgot to say….. is currently 44.0 on B/F right now so the ‘shilling’ could be a good EW wager in an 8 runner field.

    Tim 20/11/17 12:29 PM Reply


  • Just seen a handsome young man walk across the screen at Leicester. It looked remarkably like you Josh. Hope you had a good day despite the no show from your horse.

    Roddo 20/11/17 3:04 PM Reply


    • Ha cheers Roddo… yea she has run flat there. There are a couple of excuses we think. Just nothing in tank when Jack asked question. Travelled and jumped well up to bottom of hill. Putting a line through that. We move on.

      Josh 20/11/17 3:33 PM Reply


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