Members Daily Post 19/11/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Fontwell

2.05-

Cresswell Breeze (all hncps,hncp chase,m2) ES+ H3 I3 9/1 S3A , WON 9/1>7/1 

Shelford (hncp chase) 14,30 H1 9/2 UP

2.40 –

Remiluc (m1) H1 I1 9/2 3rd 

Love Destination (m1 + m1) H3 I3 G3 16/1 S1, S2, S4, S5 UP

3.15 –

Soulsaver (all hncps +m2) ES+ H3 I1 G3   10/3  S3A S4  WON 4/1 

Be Daring (m1) 5/1 UP

 

Cheltenham

1.15 –

Merose Boy (all hncps, m2,m2) 14,30 5/2 WON 3/1 

Buckle Street (all hncps) H3 33/1 UP

Cottersrock (all hncps) 25/1 S2  UP 

Lip Service (m1) 14,30 8/1 4th 10/1 

3.00-

Misterton (all hncps) I3 10/1 S2 S5 2nd 10/1 (ahh!)

Old Guard (m1) 30 G3 20/1 S1 S2 3rd 8/1

Amour De Nuit (m1) 30 G1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 12th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/138, +122.5) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.15 Chelt – Lip Service –

I’ve ‘declared’ yesterday’s winner at 3/1 (+1 point on day) but with any luck you got a bigger price. 9/2 wasn’t around for long after I posted and I don’t like ‘tipsters’ declaring at prices the majority would have never got. An ok day and all three ran well enough, to a point. On we go…

Lip Service... well he is a decent enough price and he has that unexposed profile. This is his first handicap hurdle run I think and first run for the new yard. In the last two years FOB is 10/43,18p, +43 with new horses to the yard running first time up for him. Many a horse seems to improve for coming into his care. He has a decent young jockey booked who is on the crest of a wave at the moment. He steps up in trip from recent runs. Fitness is taken on trust but he looked worth a nibble at these odds. The ground is also a bit of an unknown. The market suggests they are running against an aeroplane from the Fry yard- he clearly could have a tonne in hand. But you have to take those types on at that price, in races like this. Well, I always will. If this one doesn’t win, maybe Cottersrock can cause a surprise for S2.

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That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

12.45 Cork – Boy Capel (25/1<)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cheltenham Day 3

hmmm…well the micros found Splash of Ginge in the big one, can’t say my pin was anywhere near him and they always look more obvious after they have won! I think he was 40s or so in the morning. Gulp. Clearly I should have just focused on that list of qualifiers!  But, at least they worked and they were due a biggie going in. The handicap hurdle trends ‘shortlist’ of 7 (i tried to refine it but no further stats to do so) included the 25/1 winner! (37.00 BFSP) so, some encouragement there moving through the rest of the season with that approach. Ideally i’d like shortlists of 4 max, but that’s how it goes sometimes. I know some of you just back all shortlist qualifiers so with any luck at least one of you had a go! (please do say if you did)

On to today…

Micros 

(as with yesterday 14/1< best, ‘some biggies have gone close’, and now we have a big winner, so, prob best use as a guide only!)

1.15 –

Melrose Boy (m2) WON 

Potters Story (m2)

3.00-

Elgin (m1 +  m2) WON 

Mohaayed (m1 + m2)

London Prize (m1)

Misterton (m1) 2nd 

Nietzsche (m1)

Old Guard (m1) 3rd 

Project Bluebook (m1)

William H Bonney (m1)

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Trainer Notes

1.15 – Melrose Boy WON 

2.25 – Fox Norton WON 

3.00- Old Guard 3rd / Misterton 2nd

3.30 – Slate House WON   / Dame De Compaigne UP

4.00- Crooks Peak WON / Sizing Cusimano UP

 

Greatwood Hurdle Stats/Trends/Shortlist

  • 0-2 runs last 90 days
  • 0-5 career wins
  • 0-1 handicap wins

(the only three 10/10 stats,using those that I look at) (10/10 were sent off 12/1 or shorter SP, 18/20 also 12/1 or shorter SP, as a guide)

Shortlist : Elgin WON 16/1>10/1/ Jenkins / Mohaayed / William H Boney / Ivanovich Gorbatov 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • very short of time so no explanation just my fun selections for today.
    Cheltenham day 3.
    1-15. Maguires Glen 25-1 1pt ew
    1-50. no bet
    2-25 Cloudy Dream 3-1 1pt win
    3-00. Mohaayed 8-1, The New One 14-1 both 1pt ew
    3-30.Summerville Boy 25-1 1pt win
    4-00. Ballygomartin 7-1 1pt ew
    Fontwell
    1-30. Lithic 11-2 2pt win
    2-05 Cyclop 7-1, Azures Fly 12-1 both 1pt ew
    2-40 Ravens Tower 9-2 2pt win

    martin whittle 19/11/17 6:11 AM Reply


  • Today I like Elgin Cheltenham Sunday 15:00 1pt e/w (make sure you get 5+ places but be wary Sky terms only apply for 14+ runners) and Cresswell Breeze Fontwell 14:05 1pt e/w

    Have chucked £5ew on Itsafreebee in the 14:40 at Fontwell who has had a nightmare 12 months however he was the Neptune runner up 18 months ago and is running in a class 3 handicap off a mark of 130 and there must be a reason why Skelton is persevering with her.

    Nick Mazur 19/11/17 8:44 AM Reply


    • That felt very easy. Class told there. Easiest race she has ran in quite some time.

      Nick Mazur 19/11/17 2:15 PM Reply


      • yep well done, nice for ES+ to get a decent priced one in also, been a while! She travelled very well through that, superb ride.

        Josh 19/11/17 2:18 PM Reply


        • good day Nick! He appeared in plenty of places… did you do an EW double with those two??

          Josh 19/11/17 3:09 PM Reply


        • Slightly feel sorry for the stats but that a cracking little 140/1 double there. Back to back winners of the Greatwood as well. Hope some of you guys followed.

          Nick Mazur 19/11/17 3:11 PM Reply


          • Didn’t follow the double sadly! Nice. But given the micros/race shortlist/your thoughts, i had a nibble, but would have preferred the second or third to have won!

            Josh 19/11/17 3:13 PM Reply


            • I had the front 5 with SP2A but would have been a big drop off (double worth best part of a grand) if the other 4 had won. Wayne did a sterling job in being on the best part of the track the whole way round there. That’s 3/4 of the last winners that had run in the same year’s Supreme now.

              Nick Mazur 19/11/17 3:20 PM Reply


  • Paddy goes to Fontwell today which suggests there isn’t a whole pile of confidence
    about the 2 bumper runners,however he wouldn’t be eligible to ride Lip Service in the 1.15,Richard Patrick has ridden 2-2 with stable,is a jockey heading to the top
    I am always reluctant to back anything on home soil,but given Jessica Harringtons record with hurdlers at Punchestown i will have a stab at Light That at 20/1 12.30,its a decent pot and she does run them to win

    gearoid180468 19/11/17 9:08 AM Reply


    • I hear Paddy is off to FP to ride Fergal Mael Duin, who has been laid out for the 2.05. He went well in the race last year. The other rides he has look moderate, even for FP and some are short. Minella Web has not won for over two years and yet is short on the tissue. Go with FMD 2.05.

      In the 12.55 Jukebox Jive comes off the flat to have a go over hurdles. Thounder has had two ok wing and wears a tongue tie. Field of Fortune may be the ‘dirty each way’ here?

      In the 2.40 the Pipe 4YO Great Tempo has a low weight. Ravens Tower and Loves Destination are consistent but no world beaters.

      martin colwell 19/11/17 9:21 AM Reply


  • I guess the rain stopped at Cheltenham and the ground is drying? In the 1.15 Tempuran at 20/1 may have some each way value if he has some improvement in an open race? In the 3.00 Jenkins may sluice up or find one or two too good. I do not see him as value at present? Flying Tiger has a 5LB pull with London Prize and may be each way value circa 12/1? I hear Mohaayed is revved up as well in another competitive race.

    The novice races look tough but as with Apples Shakira yesterday the market may guide us?

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 19/11/17 9:26 AM Reply


  • Ah the 20/1 didn’t last long still 16/1 with Ladbrokes,probably still bit of value at that

    gearoid180468 19/11/17 10:06 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh.

    You’ve missed the strategy number from Love Destination 2.40 Fontwell.

    Thanks
    Matt M

    Matt M 19/11/17 11:10 AM Reply


  • hi, is Love destination a S4? I3, G3, H3?

    Paul 19/11/17 11:14 AM Reply


  • S1, S2, S4 and S5 I believe?

    Matt M 19/11/17 11:21 AM Reply


  • Got quite a few fancies today myself. Faugheen back is a treat!

    Swamp fox without Faugheen– Vroum Vroum Mag being a NR sort of ruins this bet as you can’t get it as easy e/w…i think without is a nice bet here. He is tough as they come he hates be passed and there are question marks over Jezki bouncing and whether Campeador is of this level (he could well be by the way). Campeador is also capable of falling as we all know so for me this is a no-brainer- even if i looking for an underperformance or two…

    3.25 Best Behaviour is worth watching. A trainer who wouldnt be known for maiden winners but he was put into a big punchestown bumper and didnt finish far of the places…The form is good, and as much Stooshie finished ahead of him, stooshie had the benefit of experience….This horse could well end up a much longer term prospect so he’s worth watching…..hes around 16s i think so worth an e/w

    3.55 Speirling Ran in the same bumper as the above and was probably more eyecatching, hampered when making nice ground, i reckon he would’ve finished in the first 5 if not for being hampered. That in theory makes him have the best piece of form in this bumper. As much as Vision de Flos has been highly tried, i have a feeling hes slightly overrated. He gets weight here, but the negative he concedes a run to the favourite. I wasn’t overly taken by the favourite at down royal, Rapid escape seemed a stayer all over, and whilst the ground will suit that type, i think he could have a couple of fair challengers here.
    Speirling has been backed to 4s, i havent backed him as yet, as to be honest hes shorter now that i’d want. When that outfit backs them it can be telling, but…maybe a drift nearer the off will make him a bet.

    12.45 Cork, i wont be betting but worth seeing what Articulum can do off a long lay off. He has some nice form and from a small yard, its possible he’ll be underestimated going forward.

    Lip Service qualifies for Josh which i am happy to see. A new in form yard could see him improve a fair bit. Travelled well in Ireland before finding a lot often, and a tongue tie is also interesting. I see the jockey is on fire over hurdles also, with 5 or 6 places he makes appeal the way he travels.

    Jack 19/11/17 12:14 PM Reply


    • Not the best not the worst.

      Faugheen is back and still a machine..Swamp Fox didn’t get 2nd..

      Best Behaviour placed, and looks one long term to watch, while not being anything special.

      Speirling not good enough for Rapid Escape, there was a slight drift on him near the off.

      Lip Service finished nicely on stable debut and will be one for the future alright.

      Articulum hosed up, my horses i have to watch for future races seem to be flying to early, as i didnt back him lol it was hard to know how fit but his form stood out like a sore thumb!

      Jack 19/11/17 4:07 PM Reply


  • My E/W Lucky 15.
    Chelt 1.15 Tarrona, lot’s in here with chances I just kept coming back to this one, should be ok in the ground/trip I will take my chance at 50/1.
    Font 2.05 Fergal Mael Duin I got a list from somewhere of horses to back First time out in Oct/Nov, he is on it.
    Font 2.40 Ravens Tower, Ben Pauling’s horses running well, good on the ratings has won 3/6 in November.
    Font 3.15 Sixtie’s Idol, I will be honest struggling for a fourth pick, this ran 3rd behind a Charlie Mann horse back in May at Kempton, Got a rating of 102 has done much since, today off 79 in a very weak race, take my chance at 22/1.

    Good Luck All

    Greg Phillips 19/11/17 12:19 PM Reply


  • ah yes, cheers!

    Josh 19/11/17 12:32 PM Reply


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